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A rundown of every possible permutation from the last round of group games, plus odds and the probabilities from stats site FiveThirtyEight

PUBLISHED : Monday, 25 June, 2018, 2:16pm 


The World Cup is almost to the knockout stage, which begins on Saturday, and while some teams have already made it through to the round of 16, many are doing the maths to see how they can make it.

We’ve also taken a look at the probabilities of qualification generated by number-crunching website FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 World Cup predictions, as well as the latest odds to get out of the group being offered by bookmakers. 
Already qualified: Russia, Uruguay

What can happen?

The winner of Russia and Uruguay’s Monday night match takes the group. A draw would see Russia top on goal difference. 
Already qualified: None

What can happen? Iran are through if they beat Portugal on Tuesday morning. Portugal are through with either a win or a draw. Spain are through with a win or a draw over already out Morocco but can progress with a loss if Portugal win.

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What’s the likelihood?

According to FiveThirtyEight, Spain are 99 per cent likely to make the round of 16, Portugal are 87 per cent and Iran 15 per cent

Odds to qualify: Portugal ($1.10), Spain ($1.01), Iran ($6) 
Already qualified: France

What can happen? Denmark play France and a win or draw on Tuesday night would take the Danes through, as would a loss provided Australia don’t beat already out Peru (and get a two goal swing). France need a point to be sure of top spot.

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What’s the likelihood? Denmark are 86 per cent sure to make the next round with Australia just 14 per cent.

Odds to qualify: Denmark ($1.14), Australia ($5.50) 
Already qualified: Croatia

What can happen? Argentina need to beat Nigeria on Wednesday morning and cross their fingers that Croatia do not lose to Iceland. Nigeria are through with a win or even a draw if Iceland don’t win by a two goal margin.

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Odds to qualify: Argentina ($1.75), Nigeria ($2.75), Iceland ($7) Group E


What can happen? A win or draw against Serbia on Wednesday night sees Brazil through. Switzerland can stop Neymar and the boys finishing top if they better Brazil’s result or win by a bigger margin to pip them on goal difference.

A draw or even a loss to already out Costa Rica can take the Swiss to the knockouts, provided Serbia also lose. Serbia can still make it if they beat Brazil or draw while Switzerland are beaten by a couple of goals.

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What is the likelihood?

Switzerland are 97 per cent assured of going through, Brazil are 89 per cent and Serbia have a slim hope at 14 per cent chance.

Odds to qualify: Switzerland ($1.04), Brazil, ($1.10), Serbia ($5.50) 

What can happen? A draw sees Mexico through but a win over Sweden on Thursday morning assures them top spot and three wins from three. Germany are through if they match or better Sweden’s result when they play South Korea.

The Koreans need a two-goal plus win over Germany and Sweden to lose to sneak in. Germany and Sweden could yet be separated by their head-to-head result, which would see the holders through.

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Germany are 87 per cent to go through, Mexico 72 per cent, Sweden 40 per cent and South Korea 1 per cent

Odds to qualify: Germany ($1.12), Mexico ($1.16), Sweden ($2.90), South Korea ($34) 
Already qualified: Belgium, England

What can happen? Belgium play England on Thursday night with the winner taking the top spot. If it’s a draw then it will be decided by fair play as the teams are currently level on goal difference and goals scored.

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FiveThirtyEight sees England favoured to top the group by 59 per cent to 41 per cent. 

What can happen? If Japan draw with eliminated Poland on Friday morning they are through. Senegal v Colombia is a winner-takes-all affair but the Lions of Teranga only need a draw against the South Americans to keep their run in Russia going.


Japan are favourites at 81 per cent, Colombia 61 per cent and Senegal 58 per cent despite needing just a draw.

Odds to qualify: Japan ($1.12), Colombia ($1.62), Senegal ($1.72)
