Why does Bayesian Optimization perform poorly in more than 20 Dimensions? I have been studying Bayesian Optimization lately and made the following notes about this topic:

*

*Unlike deterministic functions, real world functions are constructed using physical measurements


*Measurements can always have error (e.g. human error,  design and experiment error, random error, measurement error) - if you record the same measurements at the same conditions but at a future time, it's very likely that these measurements might be different from the previous measurements


*Thus, an objective function that is based on physical measurements is naturally "unstable" - two people might record the same measurements, end up with different values, and as a result end up with two different objective functions.


*A "noisy" function is also an "unstable" function - if we were top optimize this "noisy function", the optimization results might not correspond to natural system we are studying due to inherent errors while recording measurements. This means that in some sense, we are dealing with a more complicated version of "apples and oranges".


*Bayesian Optimization attempts to solve this problem by using the recorded measurements as "pegs" and fitting a "circus tent" over these measurements through the form of a Gaussian Process. This sort of acts like "probabilistic smoothing" and tries to statistically account for all possible uncaptured variations in the measurements that exist - provided the assumption of the "data generating process" being well represented by a Gaussian Process is somewhat true.


*Thus, Bayesian Optimization tries to "smoothens out" the noise/variation/error in the objective function,  adding a natural "robustness" to the final optimization solution. All this means is that Bayesian Optimization has the potential to give us better results.
Advantages of Bayesian Optimization:

*

*Robustness (as descibed above)

*Does not require the objective function to be differentiable (i.e. useful in discrete and combinatorial optimization problems)

*Since it does not calculate the derivative, it has the potential to be more "computationally efficient" compared to gradient based optimization methods.

Disadvantages of Bayesian Optimization:

*

*Requires the true objective function to be well modelled by a Gaussian Process

*Empirically has been observed to perform poorly on high dimensional objective functions (i.e. higher than 20 dimensions) - however, I don't understand why.
I have often heard this claim being made about Bayesian Optimization performing poorly in more than 20 dimensions, but I have never been able to understand why this is. I tried to consult some references online:
1) "High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization with Sparse
Axis-Aligned Subspaces" (Eriksson et al 2021)

*

*"High-dimensional BO presents a particular challenge, in part because the curse of dimensionality makes it difficult to define—as well as do inference over—a suitable class of surrogate models."


*"While BO has become a workhorse algorithm that is employed in a wide variety of settings, successful applications are often limited to low-dimensional problems, e.g. fewer
than twenty dimensions [Frazier, 2018]. Applying BO to high-dimensional problems remains a significant challenge. The difficulty can be traced to both of the algorithm components mentioned above, although we postulate that suitable function priors are especially important for good performance. In particular, in order for BO to be sample-efficient in high-dimensional spaces, it is crucial to define surrogate models that are sufficiently parsimonious that they can be inferred from a small number of query points. An overly
flexible class of models is likely to suffer from overfitting, which severely limits its effectiveness in decision-making. Likewise, an overly rigid class of models is unlikely to
capture enough features of the objective function. A compromise between flexibility and parsimony is essential."
2) "High-dimensional Bayesian optimization using low-dimensional feature spaces" (Moriconi et al, 2020)

*

*"However, BO (Bayesian Optimization) is practically limited to optimizing 10–20 parameters. To scale BO to high dimensions,
we usually make structural assumptions on the decomposition of the objective
and/or exploit the intrinsic lower dimensionality of the problem, e.g. by using
linear projections. We could achieve a higher compression rate with nonlinear
projections, but learning these nonlinear embeddings typically requires much
data. This contradicts the BO objective of a relatively small evaluation budget."
3) "A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization" (Frazier, 2018)

*

*"It (Bayesian Optimization) is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20"


*"The input x is in R-d for a value of d that is not too large. Typically d ≤ 20 in most successful applications of BayesOpt."
My Question : No where in these papers do they explain why "20 Dimensions" seems to be a relevant threshold for deciding the conditions in which the performance of Bayesian Optimization begins to deteriorate.

*

*Can someone please explain why "20 Dimensions" is said to be the maximum threshold for Bayesian Optimization?


*Even though some explanations are provided that explain the difficulty of Bayesian Optimization in higher dimensions - can someone please help me understand this in more detail?
References:
High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization with Sparse Axis-Aligned Subspaces (PDF)
A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization (PDF)
High-dimensional Bayesian optimization using low-dimensional feature spaces (PDF)

Yes, high dimensional space is tough in general, but there a couple things that make Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes particularly perplexing on those prickly problems.
In my view, there isn't a single reason high dimension makes BO difficult, but the difficulty is rather due to a confluence of multiple factors.
Firstly, Bayesian optimization is classically conducted with a Gaussian process using something like a squared exponential kernel. This is a kernel which gives great flexibility which is perfect in low dimension but can become a liability in high dimension, as it puts reasonable probability mass on too many explanations of the point cloud. So the first issue is that the model we're using is already struggling to understand what's going on.
This is related to the volume argument from the other answer. Since GPs depend explicitly on distances, when all interpoint distances are equal and large, the GP has little discrimination power.
See how as we go into higher dimension, the distances between random points vary less than in low dimension:

["A survey on high-dimensional Gaussian process modeling with application to Bayesian optimization" by Mickaël Binois and Nathan Wycoff
]
As you mention, putting structure into the kernel function so that we are learning a mapping into a low dimensional space onto which we put a "standard" gaussian process is a good way to go here. Another option is to assume a kernel function which combines information from input dimensions in a more frugal manner, such as additive (Additive Gaussian Processes
Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24 (NIPS 2011) by David K. Duvenaud, Hannes Nickisch, Carl Rasmussen) or ANOVA kernels ("ANOVA decomposition of conditional Gaussian processes for sensitivity analysis with dependent inputs" Gaëlle Chastaing, Loic Le Gratiet).
Secondly, we can't forget about the fact that BO is a nested optimization procedure: every time a BO algorithm wants to suggest a next point to optimize, it has to solve an entire sub-optimization problem over the entire space! Unlike the original optimization problem, the acquisition function defined by our Gaussian process (whose optimizing point is our next candidate in our outer search) usually has a known gradient and Hessian, which is indeed helpful in finding a local solution.
However, the acquisition function is notoriously nonconvex, which means that in high dimensional spaces, however quickly we can find a local optimum, we may have little chance of finding anything close to a global optimum without considerable effort. Though this doesn't impact the ability of the Gaussian process to model the unknown objective, it does impact our ability to exploit its knowledge for optimization.
When combined with kernel shenanigans, sometimes the acquisition function can be optimized in a lower dimensional space, which can make things easier (or sometimes harder in practice; linear dimension reduction means we're doing linear programming rather than unconstrained optimization now and also doesn't vibe well with hyperbox constraints).
And third is the hyperparameter estimation risk. Most popular these days are "separable", "ARD", "tensor product" or otherwise axis-aligned anisotropic kernels which look something like $k(\mathbf{x}_1,\mathbf{x}_2) = \sigma^2 e^{\sum_{p=1}^P \frac{(x_{1,p}-x_{2,p})^2}{2\ell_p}}$, so we have one additional thing to estimate for each input dimension, and estimating gaussian process hyperparameters is tough, both from a  statistical inference perspective and numerical analytic one.
Using a parameterized mapping into low dimension only makes the estimation risk worse (but may be offset by a substantially lower variance class of functions a priori).
Fourth: Computation Time. GPs are known for their small data statistical efficiency (in terms of error/data) and large data computational inefficiency (in terms of inference / second). In high dimension, if we really want to find a global optimum, we are probably going to have to evaluate the objective function tons of times, and thus have a large dataset for our GP to consider. This is simply not been the GPs historical niche, as classical, decomposition-based GP (i.e. where you actually take a Cholesky of the kernel matrix) inference scales with $n^3$ so gets intractable quickly.
Optimization of the acquisition function also only gets more expensive as $n$ goes up too. And keep in mind that you have to do this between every optimization iteration. So if we have an optimization budget of $10,000$, naively we would need to do all this numerical optimization literally $10,000-n_{\textrm{init}}$ times (though of course in practice we would evaluate batches of points at a time as well as only optimize hyperparams every few iters).
Large scale GP inference in high dimension has really matured over the last few decades, however, and have been the engine of some of the recent large scale GP-BO papers recently.
