What methods can I research to help me estimate a probability This is my first question on here, I hope it goes well... I need to estimate the probability of an event that I don't have historical data on, but I do have data on similar/comparable events. I hope this is not too general. For example, take the damage rate of one item with one particular; this is a simple count, did the item get damaged--Yes/No and convert to a rate. I believe this data is characterized by a binomial distribution. Is there a method that I can apply to estimate the damage rate of another similar item based off the item I do have data on??

If you have more than 1 other experiment (e.g. you have damage rates for more than 1 other product), you might want to fit a partially pooled hierarchical logistic regression, and estimate the variance of the defect rate across products. This can give insight into where you might expect to see the damage rate of a new, unknown product lie.
Here's a link to a discussion about the use of hierarchical modeling for extrapolation.
