How to interpret a "% win probability"? I came across this explanation about a 61% win probability:

61 percent should be interpreted as: “if these teams played 100 times,
we would expect Marquette to win 61 of those games.” It definitely
does not mean that the model is 61 percent confident that Marquette
will win.

So my questions are:

*

*Why a "% win probability" isn't the same as "the confidence a model has in a specific outcome"?

*How would this "confidence of a specific model has in a specific outcome" be stated in a short formulation (by short formulation I mean something like how "% win probability" stands as a short for "if this event would be run 100 times, then we would this specific outcome X times")?


I agree with the comments, that on it's own, the plain language implication of the quote is that a 61 percent win probability would mean that the team is predicted to win a game with 61 percent probability.  However, I think the article is getting at the idea of a predictive model that takes into account other factors. For example, the article talks about how the prediction can change over the course of a game, as one team gains a lead in points over the other team.  Presumably a good model would take into account other factors, like if the team is the home team or the away team. The language in the article could be made a little more precise, or simply coin some terms to make the distinction more clear.
