<clinical_study>
  <!-- This xml conforms to an XML Schema at:
    https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/html/images/info/public.xsd -->
  <required_header>
    <download_date>ClinicalTrials.gov processed this data on September 20, 2023</download_date>
    <link_text>Link to the current ClinicalTrials.gov record.</link_text>
    <url>https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04460274</url>
  </required_header>
  <id_info>
    <org_study_id>TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries</org_study_id>
    <nct_id>NCT04460274</nct_id>
  </id_info>
  <brief_title>Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide</brief_title>
  <acronym>Covid19TmeSer</acronym>
  <official_title>Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study</official_title>
  <sponsors>
    <lead_sponsor>
      <agency>Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital</agency>
      <agency_class>Other</agency_class>
    </lead_sponsor>
  </sponsors>
  <source>Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital</source>
  <oversight_info>
    <has_dmc>No</has_dmc>
    <is_fda_regulated_drug>No</is_fda_regulated_drug>
    <is_fda_regulated_device>No</is_fda_regulated_device>
  </oversight_info>
  <brief_summary>
    <textblock>
      Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health&#xD;
      systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models&#xD;
      have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The&#xD;
      investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of&#xD;
      time-series analysis.&#xD;
    </textblock>
  </brief_summary>
  <detailed_description>
    <textblock>
      Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019&#xD;
      before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute&#xD;
      respiratory distress as the main cause of death.&#xD;
&#xD;
      Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting&#xD;
      lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of&#xD;
      cases between communities differ.&#xD;
&#xD;
      Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal&#xD;
      processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were&#xD;
      used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total&#xD;
      number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.&#xD;
    </textblock>
  </detailed_description>
  <overall_status>Completed</overall_status>
  <start_date type="Actual">December 31, 2019</start_date>
  <completion_date type="Actual">June 20, 2020</completion_date>
  <primary_completion_date type="Actual">June 15, 2020</primary_completion_date>
  <study_type>Observational</study_type>
  <has_expanded_access>No</has_expanded_access>
  <study_design_info>
    <observational_model>Cohort</observational_model>
    <time_perspective>Retrospective</time_perspective>
  </study_design_info>
  <primary_outcome>
    <measure>Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19</measure>
    <time_frame>December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020</time_frame>
  </primary_outcome>
  <number_of_groups>2</number_of_groups>
  <enrollment type="Actual">7882471</enrollment>
  <condition>Covid-19</condition>
  <arm_group>
    <arm_group_label>Model Building</arm_group_label>
    <description>Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.</description>
  </arm_group>
  <arm_group>
    <arm_group_label>Model Validation</arm_group_label>
    <description>Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model</description>
  </arm_group>
  <intervention>
    <intervention_type>Other</intervention_type>
    <intervention_name>Model Building</intervention_name>
    <description>Model building</description>
    <arm_group_label>Model Building</arm_group_label>
  </intervention>
  <intervention>
    <intervention_type>Other</intervention_type>
    <intervention_name>Model validation</intervention_name>
    <description>Model validation</description>
    <arm_group_label>Model Validation</arm_group_label>
  </intervention>
  <eligibility>
    <study_pop>
      <textblock>
        Population consists all confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported from Situation Dashboard of&#xD;
        the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control website Coronavirus 19 Situation&#xD;
        Report&#xD;
      </textblock>
    </study_pop>
    <sampling_method>Non-Probability Sample</sampling_method>
    <criteria>
      <textblock>
        Inclusion Criteria:&#xD;
&#xD;
          -  Confirmed case of Covid-19&#xD;
&#xD;
        Exclusion Criteria:&#xD;
&#xD;
          -  Cases not reported&#xD;
      </textblock>
    </criteria>
    <gender>All</gender>
    <minimum_age>N/A</minimum_age>
    <maximum_age>N/A</maximum_age>
    <healthy_volunteers>No</healthy_volunteers>
  </eligibility>
  <location>
    <facility>
      <name>Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital</name>
      <address>
        <city>İzmir</city>
        <zip>35360</zip>
        <country>Turkey</country>
      </address>
    </facility>
  </location>
  <location_countries>
    <country>Turkey</country>
  </location_countries>
  <verification_date>July 2020</verification_date>
  <study_first_submitted>July 3, 2020</study_first_submitted>
  <study_first_submitted_qc>July 3, 2020</study_first_submitted_qc>
  <study_first_posted type="Actual">July 7, 2020</study_first_posted>
  <last_update_submitted>July 6, 2020</last_update_submitted>
  <last_update_submitted_qc>July 6, 2020</last_update_submitted_qc>
  <last_update_posted type="Actual">July 8, 2020</last_update_posted>
  <responsible_party>
    <responsible_party_type>Principal Investigator</responsible_party_type>
    <investigator_affiliation>Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital</investigator_affiliation>
    <investigator_full_name>Serhat Akay</investigator_full_name>
    <investigator_title>Principal Investigator</investigator_title>
  </responsible_party>
  <keyword>Covid19, forecasting</keyword>
  <condition_browse>
    <!-- CAUTION:  The following MeSH terms are assigned with an imperfect algorithm            -->
    <mesh_term>COVID-19</mesh_term>
  </condition_browse>
  <!-- Results have not yet been posted for this study                                          -->
</clinical_study>


download date: ClinicalTrials.gov processed this data on September 20, 2023
link text: Link to the current ClinicalTrials.gov record.
url: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04460274
org study id: TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries
nct id: NCT04460274
lead sponsor: 
has dmc: No
is fda regulated drug: No
is fda regulated device: No
Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health
      systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models
      have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The
      investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of
      time-series analysis.
Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019
      before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute
      respiratory distress as the main cause of death.

      Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting
      lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of
      cases between communities differ.

      Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal
      processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were
      used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total
      number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.
observational model: Cohort
time perspective: Retrospective
measure: Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19
time frame: December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020
arm group label: Model Building
description: Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.
arm group label: Model Validation
description: Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model
intervention type: Other
intervention name: Model Building
description: Model building
arm group label: Model Building
intervention type: Other
intervention name: Model validation
description: Model validation
arm group label: Model Validation
study pop: 
sampling method: Non-Probability Sample
criteria: 
gender: All
minimum age: N/A
maximum age: N/A
healthy volunteers: No
facility: 
country: Turkey
responsible party type: Principal Investigator
investigator affiliation: Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital
investigator full name: Serhat Akay
investigator title: Principal Investigator
mesh term: COVID-19