‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻁﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺯﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ :-‫ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻜﺴﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻌﻜﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺭﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺸﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺼﺤﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٦٦٩,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٩٧٤,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٦ -٢٠١٧ ، ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣,٢ ‫ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ . ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١١ ( ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥,٥ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻷ‬ ‫ﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨ‬


، ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٢,٨ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٠,٩ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٠٩,٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ٠,٠١ ، ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٩٨ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٩٨ % ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ . ٥ - ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ :- ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ٩٠,٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣٠٥,٦ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻔ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ - ٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٣٧,٧ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫،ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٠,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٠٥,٨ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٩٥,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٩٨ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٩٨ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ . ٦ - ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ١,٢ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣,٣ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ - ٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٧٥ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢,٣ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١,٢٥ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٩٥,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﺤﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٦ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٢٠ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠ‬ ‫ﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٨,٧ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢,٣ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٩٧ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٩٧ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ . ٧ - ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ : ‫ﺃﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ١,٨٢ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٧,١٥ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٨ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ - ٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٩٢,٨ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٨ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺈﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٧ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٢٩ % ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٦,٧ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٤,٣ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,

١ ( ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ‬

  

	٢٠١٢ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ -٢٠١٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ -٢٠١٥ . -‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺴﺎﺌل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٧ ٢٠١ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬ : -‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﺸﺘﻤل‬ ٢٢١٦ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ،‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻔﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﺌﺞ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ١ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٥,٥٦ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥٢,٢ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٣٥,٥ % ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ، ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺤﻅ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ٢,٦ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٧,٧ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣٣,٦ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٨٠ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ٢٠ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻓﺔ‬ ٢ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ : ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ٧,٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٩,٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٩٣ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ، ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٩,٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥٨ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣٣,٦ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١,٥٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ٨,٠٥ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٩,٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٧٥ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٧٥ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ٣ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺒﻴﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ٨,٠٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٢,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٨١,٣ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ، ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٤,١ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٤١,٩٦ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣٣,٦ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١,٠٨ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٧,٦ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٤,١ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٧٠ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٧٠ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ .

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٢٢١٧

  

	٧٨,٨ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬	٤ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺸﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ : ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣٣٠,٨ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣١٩,٨ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ -٢٠١٥ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻭﻀﺤﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼ‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٢٢١٩

  

	٣٥ ٦٥ % % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ٣٥ % ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ : ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ . ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٨,٢ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ٥,٤ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ،‬ ٢٠٠٨ ‫ﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٦ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ٢٣٧,٠٤ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ٨ -‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٨ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﺈﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ -‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺏ‬ ( ٧ ٢٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٢٢١٨ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٨ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٥ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٧,١ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٧,٠٥ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٣٤ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٣٤ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ٦٦ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﺨ‬ ‫ﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻌﻭﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻤل‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺘﻨﺘﻬﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ٢٠١٥ . ٩ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ : ‫ﺒﺈﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ٨,٧ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٨ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٣,٤ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥٤,٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٥ F R 2 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﻠﺴل‬ 41,9 0,80 Y ˆ1i=19,15+2,6Xi ** (6,47) ‫ﺠﻤﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ 1 ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ 30,7 0,75 2i=10,9+1,57Xi ** (5,54) ‫ﺠﻤﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ 2 ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ 23,5 0,70 3i=8,23+1,08Xi **(4,8) ‫ﺠﻤﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ 3 ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ 549,6 0,98 4i=50,1+22,8Xi **(23,4) ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ 4 ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٨ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٩ ( 687,2 0,98 5i=50,97+20,7Xi **(26,2) ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ 5 ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨ‬ ‫ﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢,٨ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١١,٢ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٤٦ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ 433,8 0,97 6i=0,88+0,20Xi ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ 6 **(20,8) ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٤٦ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ٥٤ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠ‬ ‫ﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ 5,8 0,35 7i=6,3 -0,29Xi *(-2,4) ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ % 7 ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ . 5,6 0,34 Y ˆ8i=3,5+0,5Xi *(2,4) ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ 8 ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻓﺔ‬ ١٠ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ٧,١ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ 9,6 0,46 9i=9,0+0,31Xi *(3,1) ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﻪ‬ 9 % ٢٠١٢ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٣,٢ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٢٦,٨ % ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ 1,9 0,15 Y ˆ10i=7,8+0,47Xi (1,9) ‫ﻤﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ % 10 ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﺈﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١٠ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ 7,05 0,72 11i=9,14-1,6x+0,27x 2 -0,013x 3 ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﻩ‬ % 11 **(4,24) **(4,03) ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ٠,٤٧ % ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٤,٢ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١١,١ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,١٥ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ١٥ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ٨٥ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ٣٠ % ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻭﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ . ١١ -‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺈﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١١ ( ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ٦,٠٢ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٥ % ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﻡ‬ ٧,٦٨ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٠,٠٤ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩﻫﺎ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ٠,٧٢ % ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٧٢ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ٢٨ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ . ‫ﻤﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺘﺠﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٦ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٦,٠٢ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٧,٦٨ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ، ٦,٩ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ . ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ : ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ :-i ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ i ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻪ‬ Xi ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻪ‬ i ‫ﻭ‬ I = 1

, 2, ........13 .

  

	.%	٠,٠٥	‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬	‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬	*	،	%	٠,٠١	‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬	‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬	**

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ، ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬

  

	٢٠١	٧	‫ﺏ‬ (	‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ )	-	‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬	-	‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬	‫ﺩ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬
	: ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠١١ -‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻀﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘ‬ ، ( ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ) ٠ ( ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻰ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٠ ( ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ( ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ، ٢٥ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ( ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ) ، ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ( ‫ﺒﻌﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، . ١ -‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻀﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺃﺜﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ١ ، ٢ ، ٤ ، ٥ ، ٦ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻭﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ، ٣٣١,١٣ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٧,٨ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ١٥١,٦ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ١٤٢,٢ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ١,٨ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٢٢٢٠

  

		‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ٢٠١٥ ( ) ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٠ ( ، ٤٣,٨ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺯﺍﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ٢٥,٧ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ٢٨١,٥ ، ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٣,١ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ١٨,١ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٥ ، . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ٧ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢٠١١ -٣٠٢,١ ، ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ٨ ، ٩ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ،‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ، ٥,٢ % ، ١٠,١ % ، ٥,٧ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٠ ( ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫،ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢,٨ % ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠١١ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ، ١٣ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ، ٩,٢ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻀﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ) ١١ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻌﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺴﻡ‬ ٦,٦ % ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٤ -٢٠١٠ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٧,٢ % ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢٠١١ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻭﺒﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎل‬ ٢٠١٦ ، ٢٠١٧ ‫ﻫﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ١٥ .% ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻷﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﻴﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٥ ‫ﻤﺴﻠﺴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ R 2 F 1 ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ i=31,13+12,7Di 0,37 6,8 *(2,5) 2 ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ i=17,8+7,87Di 0,38 6,3 *(2,5) 3 ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ i=13,27+4,78Di 0,28 3,98 *(1,97) 4 ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ i=151,6+150,5Di 0,72 28,8 *(5,4) 5 ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ i=46,2+12,96Di 0,75 33,9 ** (10,5) 6 ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ i=1,8+1,3Di 0,72 28,5 ** (5,3) 7 ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ i=5,2 -2,4Di *(-2,7) 0,39 7,1
		27,4	0,71		i=10,1+2,98Di **(5,2)				‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﻪ‬	‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬	‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬	‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬	‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬	8
		4,0	0,27		i=5,7+3,5Di *(2,0)					‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬	‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬	‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬	‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬	‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬	‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬	9
		0,3	0,20		i=16,6+1,5Di (0,5)				‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬	‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬	‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬	‫ﺜﻭﺭﻩ‬	‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬	10
		3,6	0,25		i=6,6+0,57Di *(1,9)					‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﻩ‬	‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬	‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬	‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬	‫ﺜ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﻩ‬	‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬	11
	.	-٢٠١٥	٢٠١١	‫ﻟﻠﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬	٢٥	‫ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻯ‬	‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬	di	،	i	‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ٠,٠٥ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻪ‬ .%	‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﻪ‬ % ، * ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬	‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ** ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ :-i

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ .

  


(5) 13 Ln Ŷ 4 +0,8 Ln Ŷ 5 (7) Ln (18,1)* (3,5) 
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ 

Summary

The Egyptian economy is suffering from the recent period. of the decline reflected by all economic indicators because of the internal conditions of the economy Which reflected on the state budget, Imbalances and the state's excesses There is no doubt that the deficit will be accompanied by public loans, both internal and external Public revenues amounted to LE 669.7 billion, while general expenditures amounted to LE 974.7 billion in 2017/2016.While GDP reached LE 3.2 trillion during the same year. 
The problem of research was the decline in the performance of the most important macro-variables of the Egyptian economy . Such as inflation rate, unemployment rate, exchange rate, volume of investments, economic growth rate. high debt and state budget deficit . Which was reflected in the performance of economic sectors. which led to a decline in real individual incomes of citizens and rising costs of living and the lack of social justice . 
The study aimed to study the current situation of the most important economic indicators, And study the relationship between them to determine the most important determinants of those important variables. And predict its behavior in the coming years, In order to contribute to the proposal of some policies that will help mitigate the negative effects resulting from the less efficient performance of those variables. 

The Important Results.

The results of the statistical estimation of the general time period were shown For variables affecting the national economy Increasing the volume of national. nonagricultural and agricultural investments. As well as GDP. national and individual income, in addition to the exchange rate of the dollar. the unemployment rate and inflation rate. While the rate of economic growth declined .The interest rate at the beginning of the study period increase at the end of the period to reach about 7.68% in 2013,And eventually decreased to about 6.9% by 2015. 
The results of the research show that the revolution of 25 January 2011 has a positive effect on statistical significance on macroeconomic variables , Total investment. non-agricultural and agricultural investment, (GDP). and national and individual income . and statistically significant negative effect on the rate of economic growth, unemployment rate and exchange rate, about 5.2%, 10.1%, 5.7 pounds / dollars, respectively before the revolution, For the period (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010),While the economic growth rate decreased by about 2.8% after the revolution of January 25, 2011 for the period (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015).The unemployment rate rose by about 13% .While the exchange rate rose by about 9.2 pounds / dollar after the revolution January 25, 2011 ,Respectively and It did not have a statistically significant effect on the rate of economic inflation and interest rate. 
The results of the Simultaneous Equations model are shown, that there is a very clear Interaction relationship that should not be overlooked when developing the most important economic policies that will drive economic growth in Egypt , It was found that the unemployment factor is very importance to the stability of the exchange rate and interest rate, which would affect in the increase of economic growth rates. Which also strongly influences the attractiveness of many investments, which will necessarily be reflected in the increase of GDP . Which will ultimately be reflected in the expenditure rates directed at national consumption, which requires taking all these variables together. to be taken into account in the formulation of economic policies in the coming years.
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻁﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺯﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ :-‫ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻜﺴﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻌﻜﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺭﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺸﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺼﺤﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٦٦٩,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٩٧٤,٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٦ -٢٠١٧ ، ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣,٢ ‫ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ . ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١١ ( ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥,٥ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻷ‬ ‫ﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨ‬