‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٣


١ - ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ÷ ٣٦٥ ‫ﻴﻭﻡ‬ . ٢ - ‫ﻟﻸﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ÷ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ . ٣ - ‫ﺍﻟﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ÷ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ . ٤ - ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬ . ٥ - ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ = ) ‫ﻟﻸﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬ - ٣٦٥ ( × ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ . ٦ - ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ = ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ÷ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ . ٧ - ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ = ) ٣٦٥ - ‫ﻟﻸﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬ ( × ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ . ٨ - ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻼﻙ‬ = ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ÷ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ . ٩ - ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ - ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ١٠ - ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ = ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ) ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ‬ ( ÷
 (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014). had been confirmed statistically a positive relationship between vegetable oils consumption and all of vegetable oil imports. average per capita income. the dollar exchange rate. and the value of real subsidy for edible oil. also make sure that statistically an inverse relationship between vegetable oils consumption and the average retail real oil price. -Estimates the food security Coefficient for edible oils at about 0.68 during the period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014). and therefore is required to increase strategic stock of edible oils for a period of not less than 9 months. at least according to considerations of food security. 

The study recommends :

-Expantion in cultivated area of oilseed crops. especially sunflower and soybean in new lands . -Expansion in the cultivation of high-yield varieties with a high content of oil. such as canola crop. -The need to link between the specifications of cultivated varieties and the manufacturing specifications required in oilseeds. -Expansion of contract farming system of oil crops. where it's basically a manufacturing crops. 



  ‫ﺒﺈﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺤﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻅﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺤﻠﻰ‬ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺘﺭﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻠﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺘﺭﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺈﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ : 


	‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﻤﺸﻌل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻁﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﺎﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﻓﺅﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻜﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺼﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻤﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬ -‫ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﻌﺒﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴـﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺩﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺘـل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻁﻠـﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺘﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤـﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﺎﺴـﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴـﺎﺌﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻏـﺫﺍﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ،‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٤١٤,٣٩ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓـﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟـﻑ‬ ٢٠١٤ ) ١٠ ( ‫ﻫـﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓـﻭل‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻜـل‬ ‫ﺒﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﺫﻭﺭﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺘﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺤ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٥ -٢٢ % ، ١٥ -٢٥ % ، ٢٤ -٥٠ % ) ٩ ( ‫ﺯﻴـﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﻭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﻤـﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻭﺍﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻫﻴﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻭﺍﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﻴ‬ ‫ﻨـ‬ ‫ﻏﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺘﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﻤﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻌـﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻭﺍﺌﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻜـﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺠـﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﻭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻫﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺌﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺘﺎﻤﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻘـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺘـﺼﻨﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴل‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻌـﺎل‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻨﺎﻋﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ) ٥ .( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻼﺤﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﺭﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ٥٥٥,٤٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٤١٤,٣٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٤ ) ١٠ ( ‫ﺒﺫﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ، ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﻨﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻐﻴل‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﻼﺹ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻘ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ١٧ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ) ١١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻤﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺏﺀ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺘﻘ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻜﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ -‫ﻤﺎﺭﺱ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٤ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻗﺘﺭﺍﺡ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ : ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٥ ٣ -‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ Stability : ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬ . ٤ -‫ﺍﻵﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ Food Safety : ‫ﺴﻼﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺼﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ . ٥ -‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬ Affordability : ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻭﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬ . -‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ Strategic Stock : ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺘﻔﻅ‬ Ex-ante demand ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ . . ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻋﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎﻴﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻭ‬ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺜﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ‬ ‫ﻌﺽ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻁﺎﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ Food Security : ‫ﻟﻠﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ Net importer ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ١٠٠ ‫ﻭﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ) ١٥ ( ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬ﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻋ‬ : ‫ﻭﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﺼﻭل‬ ) ١٦ ( ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫‪‬ﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ : ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ) ١٧ ( . ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ) ١٣ ( ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ : ‫ﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺭﻓﻪ‬ : ‫ﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺠل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ) ١٩ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) WHO ( ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ : ‫ﻓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻬﻡ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺁﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ) ٢٠ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬ ) USAID ( ‫ﺒﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ : ‫ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺘﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻹﺸﺒﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻻﻤﺘﻼﻜﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٤ ( . ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ : ‫ﻹ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٨ ( ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ‬ ) ١ ( ١ -‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ Availability : ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﺈﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻭﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬ ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺴﻬﻭﻟﺔ‬ Accessibility : ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻤﻜﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ . : . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺒﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﺯﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻁﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﺵ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﻜﻨﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻜﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﻓﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻔل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺭﻓﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ . . ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻌﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ : ) ٦ ( . -‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ Food Security Coefficient :

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻰ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ .

  
	‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ . ‫ﻨﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺌﺞ‬ : ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬ : : ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬ ) ( ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ : ١ -‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ٩,٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٣٦,٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٠ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ -‫ﻤﺎﺭﺱ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٦ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٠,٧٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ . ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻰ‬ ١,١٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ١,٥٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١,٣٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ . ( ‫ﺍﻷﺘﺠ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ، ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ٠,٧٥ % ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ١,٣٣٩ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ٢٤ % ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ . ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭل‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٠,٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٤٣,٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٧,٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ .( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ١,٠٣ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٣,٧١ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٧,٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ، ٢٦ % ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ٢,٨٩ % ، ٠,٧٥ % ، ٣,٧١ % ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺄﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ،‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٨٤,٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٧٣١,١ ‫ﺃﻟ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٤٩٦,٥٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ .( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ٣٢,٨٧ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٦,٦٢ % ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﺔ،‬ ٦٨ % ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٠,٤٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٠,٦٨ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٠,٥٦٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ .( ‫ﺍﻷﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١,٧٧ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٠,٥٦٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ٥٧ % ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٣٣,٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٤٩٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٨٦,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ .( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٧ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ٢٦,٤٩ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٩,٢٥ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٢٨٦,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٨١ % ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻌﻭﺩ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ٦,٦٢ % ، ١,٧٧ % ، ٩,٢٥ % ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ : ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( 9.2 1.14 10.5 518.3 0.64 329.7 27.975 0.984 27.5 12.7 1.17 14.9 731.1 0.68 495 46.087 0.958 44.1 14.1 1.26 17.7 706.4 0.64 454.9 36.889 0.95 35.0 19.7 1.45 28.7 535.1 0.61 324.8 32.367 0.976 31.6 34.2 1.27 43.5 714.7 0.62 446 45.478 0.974 44.3 20.1 1.29 25.8 656.6 0.6 394.6 31.462 0.967 30.4 17.8 1.29 23 536.4 0.55 294.5 35.646 1.004 35.8 18.5 1.38 25.6 574.6 0.53 302.8 27.176 1.017 27.6 20.7 1.41 29.2 312.7 0.618 193.3 19.225 1.061 20.4 17.1 1.55 26.4 284.4 0.509 144.7 39.648 0.998 39.6 36.2 1.19 43.3 369.1 0.508 187.4 35.264 1.044 36.8 22.7 1.31 29.8 520.1 0.42 218.4 17.535 1.045 18.3 17.1 1.52 25.9 333.4 0.632 210.7 17.714 1.128 20.0 22.4 1.46 32.7 286.7 0.467 133.8 15.161 1.256 19.0 28.5 1.39 39.86 369.17 0.444 163.8 16.721 1.319 22.1 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ 20.73 1.339 27.8 496.58 0.565 286.3 29.62 1.045 30.2 ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ : ( ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ A B T R 2 F ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 16.45 0.6 1.34 0.13 1.81 20.73 2.89 ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ 1.24 0.01 1.96 * 0.24 3.85 1.339 0.75 ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 20.25 1.03 2.03 * 0.26 4.12 27.8 3.71 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 774.4 -32.87 4.99 ** 0.68 24.9 496.58 -6.62 ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ 0.68 -0.01 4.03 ** 0.57 16.2 0.565 -1.77 ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 508.3 -26.49 7.07 ** 0.81 49.9 286.3 -9.25 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ 47.02 -2.03 4.37 ** 0.61 19.1 29.62 -6.85 ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ 0.86 0.02 5.52 ** 0.72 30.5 1.045 1.91 ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 43.68 -1.57 3.45 ** 0.5 11.9 30.2 -5.2 ) ** ( ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٠,٠١ ( ، ) * ( ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٠,٠٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ١ . ( ٣ -‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ١٥,١٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٤٦,٠٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٩,٦٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ . ( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ -‫ﻤﺎﺭﺱ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٨ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢,٠٣ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٦,٨٥ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٢٩,٦٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ٦١ % ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٠,٩٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ١,٣١٩ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١,٠٤٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ . ( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٩ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ % ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ % ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘ‬ ‫ﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ % ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ 239 7.4 3.8 54 62 8 87.1 0.79 15 131 116 11.45 1.92 180 11.8 2.9 48 52 4 92.3 0.69 12 68 56 17.65 0.98 ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٠٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ١,٩١ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ١,٠٤٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ 156 26.4 3 71 72 1 98.6 1 18 42 24 42.86 0.59 ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺓ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ٧٢ % 104 19.4 1.8 87 87 0 100 1.22 10 130 120 7.69 1.82 ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ 90 31.3 1.8 85 85 0 100 1.17 12 124 112 9.68 1.71 84 55.3 2.5 75 78 3 96.2 1.01 14 129 115 10.85 1.74 . ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( 40 71.8 1.9 75 80 5 93.8 1 9 128 119 7.03 1.7 ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٨,٣٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺃﻗ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺼﻰ‬ ٤٤,٢٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٤ 93 64.2 3.4 63 69 6 91.3 0.82 12 158 146 7.59 2.06 ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٠,٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ .( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( 206 30.6 4 62 62 0 100 0.8 11 112 101 9.82 1.5 ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ١,٥٧ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٥,٢ % 131 47.0 3.2 36 36 0 100 0.5 8 130 122 6.15 1.7 137 44.3 3.1 26 26 0 100 0.3 21 147 126 14.29 1.9 ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٠,٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ، ٥٠ 324 26.9 5.5 32 32 0 100 0.4 30 237 207 12.66 2.9 % ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ -14 120.0 0.8 39 39 0 100 0.5 32 472 440 6.78 5.7 . ‫ﹰ‬ 148 50.3 3.5 36 36 0 100 0.4 19 518 499 3.67 6.1 ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ٦,٨٥ % ، ٥,٢ % ‫ﺘﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ١,٩١ % ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ، ١ -‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ -‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ١٦٧ ‫ﺃﻟ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٧ ٩٠,١ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ . ( ) ٤ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ٨,٠٥ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٨,٩٤ % ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٩٠,١ ‫ﺃﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٥٦ % ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ -‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ٧٠ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ٤٤٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢١٩,٢ ‫ﻁـﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ . ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ‫ﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻴﻤﺜـل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺭﻗـﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠـﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨـﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻭﺍﺡ‬ : : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل‬ : . ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺎﺝ‬ 19 88.3 1.9 21 21 0 100 0.20 14 445 431 3.15 5.1 129.13 36.93 * 2.9 54 55.8 1.8 97.19 * 0.72 15.8 198.1 182.3 9.27 2.5 *	‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ) ٣ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ 2000 19 2001 24 2002 56 2003 25 2004 41 2005 104 2006 102 2007 167 2008 91 2009 116 2010 109 2011 119 2012 84 2013 150 2014 144 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ 90.07 ) * ( ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ : ( ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ 258 204 212 129 131 188 142 260 297 247 246 443 70 298 163 219.2 .

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺭﺓ‬ .

  the edible oils consumption in Egypt.andestimate the food security Coefficient of edible oils in Egypt during the period(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014).The study reached a lot of results as follows :-The production of the soybean crop has taken an increasing trend with statistically significant was about 1.03 tons per year.representingabout 3.71% of the average during the period(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)and is estimated at about 27.8 thousand tons. while the production of both crop cottonseed and sunflower may take a decreasing trend significantly statistically reached 26.49. 1.57 thousand tons per year. respectively. representing 9.25%. 5.2%. respectively. during the same period. estimated at about 286.3. 30.2 thousand tons. respectively. -The total production of edible oil increases by a statistically significant was about 4.67 tons per year. representing about 2.62% of the average during the period (2000-2014) and is estimated at about 178.1 thousand tons. -The average of production of oils obtained from crops (soybeans. cottonseed. sunflower) represents about 88.6% of the total food production of vegetable oils in Egypt during the period (2000-2014). -The domestic consumption of edible oils increases by a statistically significant amount of about 53.45 thousand tons. representing about 5.64% of the average of about 947 thousand tons during the period (2000-2014). -The average of oil consumption of crops (soybeans. cottonseed. sunflower) represents about 51% of the total consumption of vegetable oils in Egypt during the period (2000-2014). -A study of the consumption function of vegetable oils during the period 


	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ -‫ﻤﺎﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ : ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺫﻭﺭ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ A B T R 2 F ‫ﺍﻻﻨ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 26.73 8.05 3.88 0.56 15.07 ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ 165.8 5.95 0.96 0.07 0.91 ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ 139.1 -2.1 0.36 0.01 0.13 ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 89.53 -4.18 4.24 0.6 17.9 ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 92.74 -4.4 4.4 0.62 19.4 ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ 3.21 -0.22 1.6 0.18 2.56 ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ 8.53 0.86 1.92 0.23 3.68 ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ -59.7 30.89 5.11 0.69 26.1 ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ -68.3 30.03 5.04 0.68 25.4 ‫ﻨﺴ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺒﺔ‬ ) ** ( ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٠,٠١ ( ، ) * ( ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٠,٠٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ -0.41 0.35 4.97 ** 0.67 24.7 ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ % 22.44 -1.3 2.28 * 0.3 5.19 ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ** ** * ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ 1.28 -0.07 4.99 ** 0.68 24.93 ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ % 94.98 0.36 1.8 0.21 3.26 ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ** ** ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ 2.51 0.04 0.45 0.02 0.2 ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻰ‬ % 12.32 4.33 2.69 * 0.38 7.25 ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ** ( ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣٢٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ 90.07 8.94 219.2 2.71 129.13 -1.63 54 -7.74 55.8 -7.89 1.8 -12.2 15.8 5.44 198.1 15.59 182.3 16.47 2.5 14 9.27 -14.02 0.72 -9.72 97.19 0.37 2.9 1.39 36.93 11.72 % ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣٣٠
	12.2 8.8 7.3 7.5 14.5 17.7 19.3 10.7 9.8 9.4 8.5 15.7 14.6 18.1 15.2 12.6	15.4 21.1 34.2 26.6 14 16.3 14.9 31.9 23.8 24.6 25.9 15.7 14.6 14.9 15 *19.6	633 453 325 373 866 1044 1182 535 561 538 497 1070 1031 1302 1125 769	60.3 56.4 66.0 68.1 33.8 31.7 25.2 62.0 64.0 57.8 62.4 56.1 48.1 55.7 47.5 *51	748 574 494 508 1007 1248 1389 786 736 714 671 1270 1207 1530 1324 947.1	451 324 326 346 340 395 350 487 471 413 419 712 581 852 629 473.1	76.5 69.4 85.8 90.4 97.9 94.6 89.9 96.4 93.7 90.9 89.7 90.5 88.1 89.9 89.9 *88.6	115 121 169 135 141 204 207 251 175 176 174 200 176 228 199 178.1	.	2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ) * ( ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ 88 84 145 122 138 193 186 242 164 160 156 181 155 205 179 159.9

Summary:

Considers oilseed crops the main source of vegetable oils. and oilseed crops occupies an important place in the Egyptian agricultural economy .The soybean. cottonseed. and sunflower are the most important oilseed crops in Egypt .The research problem revolves increasing the volume of edible oils consumption rapidly in Egypt. at the same time the cultivated area of oilseed crops decreased and thus production. The research aims to achieve many objectives such as identify the production and consumption of some oilseed crops. production and consumption of edible oil. and estimate the size of the gap of edible oil . the study of factors affecting
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣١٣