‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ٦٢٣



‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ - ٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺃ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﷲ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺭﺸﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ‬

  ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻤﻭﻗﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘل‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻜﺭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺜﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻌﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺭﺒﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ،‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺨﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺌﻭل‬ ‫ﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻠﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ . ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ . 


	-‫ﺒﺎﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻅﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ، ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻌﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺩﻟل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ -‫ﺼﻨﻌﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ . ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﺫﺍ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ : ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺕ‬ : ١ . ‫ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻭﺍﺒﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫل‬ . ٢ . ‫ﺘﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫل‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻭ‬ ‫ﺴﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ : -‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ) t ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) Ms ( ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ . ‫ﺕ‬ -‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ) GDP ( ‫ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ . ‫ﺙ‬ -‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ : ١ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ‬ . ٢ . ‫ﻤﺜـل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺭﺴـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﻬﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﺭﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﻋﻑ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ : ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ - ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ - ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ - ‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ٥ ٢٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬

  ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺎﺘﺞ‬ . ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ . ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ،‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻌﺩ‬ 


	) ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻡ‬ ، ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺸﺘﻘﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ . : ١ ( ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ‬ ٦٢٤ . ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﺔ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺒﺭﺍﺯ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ . ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ . ٤ ( ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ . ٥ ( ‫ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ) ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ) SPSS ( ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻼﺴل‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻜﻼ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘل،‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ،‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺨﺭﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺒﻐﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ . ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻯ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺠل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬ : -‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬ ) ‫ﻭﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻬﺎ،‬ ( ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : -‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ . ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬ : -‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺞ‬ . ‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌﺎ‬ : -‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬ . ‫ﺨﺎﻤﺴﺎ‬ : -‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻭﺯ‬ : Ms : ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ M1 : ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ( M2 : ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ( M3 : ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﺸﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ( GDP : ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ r : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ V : ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ t : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬ : -‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻭﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻬﺎ،‬ :( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ Monetary Policy ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺒـﺎﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻘﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺌﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ). ‫ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﻨﻲ‬ ، ٢٠١٤ ، ٤ .( ‫ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺤـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺼـل‬ ‫ﻜﺤﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠـﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ٦٢٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻏﺭﺍﻀﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬ . ‫ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ،‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻀﺭ،‬ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺇﻀ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ،‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘـﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻏﺭﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺎﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺎ‬ " ‫ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ." ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ " ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺍ‬ . ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤـﺎ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻔـﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺭﻓـﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﻼﻤﺔ‬ " ‫ﺘﺤﺘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺨﺭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩﺍﺕ‬ . ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻪ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ١ -‫ﻭﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ : ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ،‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺨﻼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ل‬ ) ٣١ ‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ .( ) ‫ﺍﻷﻓﻨﺩﻱ،‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ٢٠٠٩ .( ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ : ‫ﺃ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ) M1 ( : ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ M1 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻤﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺭﻤﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ) C + .( ‫ﻭﺒﻁﺎﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﻜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻤﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺭﻤﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ) D .( ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ M1 = C + D ‫ﺏ‬ -‫ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ) M2 ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ M1 + ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ) . ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬ ، ٢٠١٣ .( ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺸﺒﺎﻩ‬ + M2 = M1 ‫ﺝ‬ -‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‬ ) M3 :( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ M1 + M2 + ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ) ‫ﻭﺍﻵﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬ ) .( ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻴﺩﻱ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ١٩٩٨ .( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ﺨﻼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺜﻨﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘﻪ‬ . ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ) M2 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺍ‬ ٧٢,٥٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٠ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ٢٧٥٦,٧٦ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ٢٠١٢ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﻜﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ) M2 ( ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ) t ( ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ٥ ٢٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ٦٢٦ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﻩ‬ ١١٧,٤٢ ‫ﺭﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ . ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻌﺎﻤل‬ R 2 ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻔﺴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ٨٩ % ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) M2 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ F ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ . M2 = -457.58 + 117.42t (t) (-4.03) (13.05) R= 0.94 R 2 = 0.89 F= 170 ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : M2 = ‫ﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ T = ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺒﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻌﺭﺽ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻼﺤﻅ‬ ‫ﺁﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ٤٨,٥١ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٩٥ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻓﺭﺍﻁ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺼﺎل‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ . ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٠٧ % ، ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﺨﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺒﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺎﺯل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﻘﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺭﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ * ) ١ ( ‫ﺸﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ** ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ) ٣ = ( ١ + ٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ % ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ % 1990 54.54 17.98 72.52 -9 1991 60.87 18.47 79.34 9.40 15 1992 75.78 21.40 97.18 22.49 15 1993 103.37 23.64 127.01 30.70 15 1994 139.71 27.46 167.17 31.62 15 1995 164.14 84.13 248.27 48.51 22 1996 156.70 112.85 269.55 8.57 22 1997 166.38 132.00 298.38 10.70 11 1998 179.93 153.42 333.35 11.72 15 1999 207.20 172.10 379.3 13.78 18 2000 247.25 227.28 474.53 25.11 15 2001 282.68 280.37 563.05 18.65 13 2002 306.45 358.21 664.66 18.05 13 2003 347.47 449.91 797.38 19.97 13 2004 390.54 583.63 974.17 22.17 13 2005 442.46 664.82 1107.28 13.66 13 2006 558.46 855.32 1413.78 27.68 13 2007 613.75 1037.59 1651.34 16.80 13 2008 680.16 1197.32 1877.48 13.69 13 2009 758.33 1317.47 2075.8 10.56 13 2010 786.13 1480.59 2266.72 9.20 10 2011 993.00 1275.23 2268.23 0.07 20 2012 1104.82 1651.94 2756.76 21.54 20 * ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ + ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ** ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ = ‫ﻵﺠل‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ + ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ + ‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ + ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺼﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ١ -‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ) ٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ، ٨٨ ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ، ٨٩ ٣ -‫ﺍﻟﺠﻼل،‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻟﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﻤﺩ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠٠٣ ( " ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺴﻴﺭ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ،‬ ‫ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ،‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ٢٠٠٥ / ٢٠٠٦ ‫ﺹ‬ ، ٢٦٣ . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺴﻴﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ . . : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ٦٢٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻠﻤﻭﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻅﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ١٣ % ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٢٠ % ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) . ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ،‬ ٢٠١٢ ) ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ٢ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ) M1 ( ‫ﻭ‬ ) M2 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـ‬ GDP M1 M2 M3= M1+ M2 ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻟـ‬ M1 ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻟـ‬ M2 ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻟـ‬ M3 (V) 1990 123757 54.54 17.98 72.52 2.269 6.883 1.707 1991 146012 60.87 18.47 79.34 2.399 7.905 1.840 1992 182786 75.78 21.40 97.18 2.412 8.541 1.881 1993 220249 103.37 23.64 127.01 2.131 9.317 1.734 1994 268789 139.71 27.46 167.17 1.924 9.788 1.608 1995 447753 164.14 84.13 248.27 2.728 5.322 1.803 1996 655192 156.70 112.85 269.55 4.181 5.806 2.431 1997 740636 166.38 132.00 298.38 4.451 5.611 2.482 1998 701274 179.93 153.42 333.35 3.897 4.571 2.104 1999 1128825 207.20 172.10 379.3 5.448 6.559 2.976 2000 1756999 247.25 227.28 474.53 7.106 7.731 3.703 2001 1895945 282.68 280.37 563.05 6.707 6.762 3.367 2002 2150895 306.45 358.21 664.66 7.019 6.005 3.236 2003 2486732 347.47 449.91 797.38 7.157 5.527 3.119 2004 2885580 390.54 583.63 974.17 7.389 4.944 2.962 2005 3646557 442.46 664.82 1107.28 8.242 5.485 3.293 2006 4495179 558.46 855.32 1413.78 8.049 5.256 3.180 2007 5099905 613.75 1037.59 1651.34 8.309 4.915 3.088 2008 6072272 680.16 1197.32 1877.48 8.928 5.072 3.234 2009 5697556 758.33 1317.47 2075.8 7.513 4.325 2.745 2010 6725671 786.13 1480.59 2266.72 8.555 4.543 2.967 2011 6499075 993.00 1275.23 2268.23 6.545 5.096 2.865 2012 6875253 1104.82 1651.94 2756.76 6.223 4.162 2.494 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ) ١ ، ٣ .( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻴﺩﻱ،‬ ١٩٩٨ .( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ،‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺁﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ )  ‫ﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﻓﻌﺎ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ . ) ‫ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ،‬ ٢٠١٣ .( ‫ﻴﺭﻤﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺤﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻤﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ) V ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﻴﺎﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) M3 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ، ) M1 .( ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﺴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ) M1 ( ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻤﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﺼل‬ ) M3 .( ‫ﺍﻟﺠ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﺘﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻼﺤﻅ‬ ) V ( ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ٥ ٢٠١

An economic study to measure the impact of money supply to GDP In Yemen during the period (1990 -2012) 

Summary

The study recommends that the increase in the money supply must be Based on balanced expansionary monetary policy . And be proportionate to keep up with the increase in the size of the GDP of various goods and services, because the growth of the money supply is much larger than the growth in the size of the gross domestic product of goods and services will have negative effects, including: 1-high price levels (ie inflation), because inflation as Milton Friedman said that a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that there are many money chasing few goods. 2-the emergence of a state of confusion and economic instability. 3-national capital outflows. 4-reduction of the national currency's exchange rate against foreign currencies. 5-lack of confidence in the national currency. 
Therefore, the study recommends the decision makers. Control larger increase in the money supply. So as not to fall into the negative effects mentioned above, and work to avoid them, because the increase in the money supply double-edged sword. And that higher inflation. That lead to the fall in the previous negative effects mentioned. And the emergence of other disadvantages,
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١٢ ( ٦٢٣