‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺸﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎل‬


= ٣٠٠ + ٠,٧٦٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ھ‬ ) ١ ( ) ٤٤,١٣ ( ** ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ = ٠,٩٨ ‫ﻑ‬ = ١٩٤٧,١٣ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ھ‬ = ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ھ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ھ‬ ‫ھ‬ = ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬ ١،٢،٣ ، .....
٢٠٠٠ ٣١٧ ٣٠٩,٨ ١٣ ١٧ ٧٦١ ٧٥٦,٢ ٦,٢ ٧,٨ ٣٢٥ ٤٦١ ٥,٨ ٧,١ ٢٠٠١ ٣٢٥ ٣١٠,٥ ١٤ ١٨ ٧٦٨ ٧٥٦,٥ ٦,٦ ٧,٤ ٣٤٠ ٤٧٦ ٦,١ ٨,٥ ٢٠٠٢ ٣٤٢ ٣١٢,٨ ١٧ ١٩ ٧٧٠ ٧٥٦,٦ ٦,٧ ٧,٦ ٣٤٥ ٥٢٢,٦ ٧,٠ ٩,١ ٢٠٠٣ ٣٦٢ ٣١٣,٥ ١٨ ٢١ ٧٨٢ ٧٦٠,٤ ٧,٦ ٨,٣ ٣٧٠ ٥٥٣,٦ ٧,٦ ٩,٣ ٢٠٠٤ ٣٩٥ ٣١٥,٨ ٢١ ٢٣ ٧٩١ ٧٦٢,٤ ٩,٨ ١١,٥ ٤١٣ ٥٧٩,٥ ٨,١ ٩,٨ ٢٠٠٥ ٤١٥ ٣١٨,٨ ٢٥ ٢٣ ٨٤٣ ٧٥٨,٤ ٨,٧ ١٠,١ ٤٢٦ ٥٨٤,٤ ٨,٢ ١٠,٠ ٢٠٠٦ ٥٩٠ ٣١٩,٥ ٢٦ ٣٠ ٨١٦ ٧٦٠ ٩,٨ ١١,٠ ٥٢٠ ٦٠٥,٤ ٨,٦ ١٠,٤ ٢٠٠٧ ٥٨٠ ٣٢١,٥ ٢٨ ٣٢ ٧٠٧ ٧٦٢ ١٠,٦ ١١,٨ ٧٦٥ ٦٢١ ٨,٩ ١٠,٦ ٢٠٠٨ ٣٤٣ ٣٢٥,٦ ٣٤ ٣٨ ٥٨٨ ٧٦١,٧ ١٢,٤ ١٣,٩ ٦٥٢ ٦٦٧,٤ ٩,٨ ١١,٨ ٢٠٠٩ ٣٦٢ ٣٢٤,٨ ٣٣ ٣٩ ٦٩١ ٧٦٥,٥ ١٥,٤ ١٨,٠ ٥١٣ ٧١٤ ١٠,٧ ١٣,٦ ٢٠١٠ ٣٥١ ٣٣٣,٨ ٤٥ ٤٩ ٧٧٠ ٧٦٣,٧ ١٤,٥ ١٦,٥ ٦٣٩ ٧٨٠ ١٢,٠ ١٣,٢ ٢٠١١ ٣٥٢ ٣٤١,٤ ٥٥ ٥٧ ٨٣٠ ٧٧٠,٢ ١٨,٢ ٢٠,٤ ٧٣٨ ٧٨٩ ١٢,٠ ١٣,٣ ٢٠١٢ ٤٢٢ ٣٤٥,٦ ٥٤ ٥٧ ٨٥٧ ٧٦٧ ١٧,٣ ١٩,٣ ٨١٩ ٩٢٠ ١٤,٧ ١٦,٤ ٢٠١٣ ٤٥٦ ٣٤٢,٨ ٥٧ ٦٠ ١٠٠٣ ٧٦٨,٥ ١٩,٩ ٢١,٥ ٨٢٩ ٩١٥ ١٤,١ ١٥,٦ ٢٠١٤ ٥٦٤ ٣٤٧,٤ ٦٣ ٦٠ ١٠٧٠ ٧٦٧ ١٨,١ ١٩,٤ ٨٤٣ ٩٢٣ ١٤,٧ ١٦,٤ ٢٠١٥ ٦٤٥ ٣٥٠,٤ ٦٧ ٧١ ١١٣١ ٧٧٠ ٢٠,٠ ٢١,٤ ٨٥٧ ٩٥٢ ١٥,٣ ١٧,١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٤٢٦,٣ ٣٢٧,١ ٣٥,٦ ٣٩,٣ ٨٢٣,٦ ٧٦٢,٩ ١٢,٦ ١٤,١ ٥٨٧,١ ٦٩١,٥ ١٠,٢ ١٠,٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ . ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ھ‬ = ٧٥١,٣ + ٠,٩٢٠ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ھ‬ ) ٢ ( ) ١٤,٤ ( ** ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ = ٠,٩٤ ‫ﻑ‬ = ٢٠٦,١ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ھ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎ‬
: n S * it Δlog X it =C i + Σ J=1 S ij Δlog P jt + θ i log X * t ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : S it = ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ) i ( X it = ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ P jt = ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ S * it = ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ) S it-1 + S it 0.5( = S * it S * it Δlog X it = ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺠﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ Δlog X * t = ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻨﺱ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٦٣ n n n - ‫ﺍﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ : Σ δ ij = 0 ، 1 = θ i Σ ، 0 = C i Σ i=1 i=1 i=1 n - ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻨﺱ‬ : = 1 δ ij Σ j=1 - ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﺜل‬ : δ ij = δ ij - ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ‬ : 0 < δ ij ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺘﺭﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ ji = δ ji /S * it ε ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻁﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ S * it δ ij / = ij ε ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ S *

‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ :

 ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﻀﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺠـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺼـﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺴـﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠـﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﺯﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺒﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻋـﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻨﻪ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻵﻟﻴ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺎﺕ‬ 


	‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ٣٧ % ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫،ﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺩﻫﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒـﺭﻭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤـﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻤﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫،ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﻴـﺴﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠـﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺤﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﺌل‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫،ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺤﺼﺭ‬ ) ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨـﺩﻭﺯ‬ ( ‫،ﺍﻟـﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻷﺒـﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ( ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻤﺎﻙ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ( ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴـﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﺌل‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ . ‫ﻫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺩﻑ‬ : ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻤﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﻀﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻤﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﻡ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٥ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ١ -‫ﻋﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺽ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺘﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ٣ -‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫،ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ‬ Rotterdam ‫ﻁﻠ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ . ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺒﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬـﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌـﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘـﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﻔﻭﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺘـﺭﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـل‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴـﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻟـﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩ‬ : . ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ : ‫ﺨﺎﺼـﺔ‬ ‫ﺒـﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁـﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒـﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ -‫ﻤﺎﺭﺱ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٦٠ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﺼﺩﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ‬ : ‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ : ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻭل‬ ‫ﻋـﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨـﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﻹﻟﻘﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺎﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻌـﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ : -‫ﻴﺘ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺸﺄ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‬ ‫،ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻌﻜﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ . ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜـل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌـﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺒﺩﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻘﺹ‬ . ‫ﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗـﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼـﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻘﻁﺭﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻴﻠـﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤـﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀـﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ) ١١ ( . ١ -

‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻻ‬ : ‫ﺃ‬ - ‫ﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬

  
	‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ) ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ‬ ٣٥٠,٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣٢٧,١ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻭﻀﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻤﻭﻀـﺢ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ٣٠٩,٨ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ، ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ٧٦٩ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ٣٠٠ ‫ﺘﻭﻀـﺢ‬ ‫ﻜﻤـﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ٩٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨـﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁـﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ھ‬



  ‫ﺇﻟـﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒـﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻘﻴﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ 


	it ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ / Rotterdam Rotterdam ‫ﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻠﻴل‬ ) ( ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁـﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ θ i = n i : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻭﻴـﺴﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﻔﻘﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻜ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ل‬ . ١ -‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨـﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٠,٠٥ ‫ﺒﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﺭ‬ ٠,٩٤ ‫ﻭﻫـ‬ ، ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨـﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺘـﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٩٤ % ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻕ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﻴﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ٠,٠٩٨ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﻼﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁـﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒـﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘـﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨـﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ٠,٠٢٨ ، ٠,٠٥٩ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻪ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ٠,٨٥٧ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻨـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨـﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤـل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﺭﺡ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺘﺸ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ١ % ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ٠,٣٢٤ % ‫ﺍﻻﺨـﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﺇﻟـﻲ‬ ‫ﻴـﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ -‫ﻤﺎﺭﺱ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٦٤ ‫ﻤﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗـﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺠـﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻁﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺕ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ١ % ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ٠,١٤٤ % ، ٠,١٩٤ % ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ١ % ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨـﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻨـﺴﺒﺔ‬ ٠,٩١٦ % ‫ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺤ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﻴﺩ‬ ٠,٩١ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺌﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ٩١ % ‫ﺘﺭﺠـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﻴﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫،ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﻔـﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒـﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻲ‬ ‫ﻴـﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ٠,٠٣٦ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘـﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻤـﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀـﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺠﻨ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫؛‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﻼﻟﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁـﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ٠,٠٢٩ ، ٠,٠٢٧ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻤـﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ٠,٢٤٨ ‫ﺃﻟـﻑ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﺭﺡ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ١ % ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ٠,١٦٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤـل‬ ‫ﺒـﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠـﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘـﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻁﻌﻴﺔ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺒﻨـﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ١ % ‫ﻴـﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ٠,١٨٢ % ، ٠,٢٤٨ % ‫ﺒـﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﻨـﺔ‬ ‫ﺘـﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﻼﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻁﻠـﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻨـﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨـﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬ ١ % ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ٠,٦٨٢ % ‫ﺍﻻﺨـﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻏﻴ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ . ٣ -‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻋﻨـﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ٠,٨٨ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤـﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺸـﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺌﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ٠,٨٨

Summary

The study aimed to measure price . quantity of the three commodities relations subject of the study, beef, white chicken, and tilapia fish, through the study of supply side . demand side has been studied through the use the estimating consumer demand methods to become an integrated application reflects the impact of price and income on consumer behavior in the context of a system of equations that take into account the introduction of hypotheses demand functions approved by the economic theory, which gives it meaning and economic significance which reflects the actual conditions of the economic reality to explain consumer behavior. This is available at the Rotterdam model, which hired by the study to estimate elasticity of price demand as well as the cross elasticity of the subject of the study. The study showed that the elasticity of demand is estimated at 0.95 for beef, and about 0.853 for white chicken meat, and about 0.725 to tilapia fish, which shows that the price and productivity relations strong link to each other for the three commodities. The results of model Rotterdam for meat explained the inverse relationship between item and size of demand, according to the elasticity of price demand. Also it identifies the existence of the current relationship between each of beef, white chicken meat and fish tilapia on the basis of elasticity of cross demand. According to the results of multi-market model, as shown by research, the increasing in the prices of beef , white chicken meat, and tilapia fish by about 1% lead to a lack of demand for beef at about 6.7 thousand tons, and white chicken at about 3.85 thousand tons, and the tilapia fish at about 3.54 thousand tons, and the lost production on the community of beef estimated at 5.21, and white chicken at about 3:45, it tilapia fish at about 2.87 thousand tons, which can be seen with the direct impact of a dynamic multi-market model to increase the display size of the item and the low demand for the size and through the overlap between the commodities inside the market, 
The results of the study also found that the net loss in the production of commodities of the three is estimated at 576.55, 289.59, 223.28 million pounds for each of beef, white chicken, tilapia fish, respectively, the consumer loss is estimated at about 425.78, 181.88, 194.96 million pounds for the three commodities, respectively. And the net loss for the community, it is estimated at 1.91204 million pounds, of which about 1.00233 million pounds for the beef, about 471.77 million pounds for the white chicken and 438,24 million pounds of tilapia fish. The results showed that the product return is positive, which confirms that the price of white chicken is greater than the price of the border and an estimated by 261.68 million pounds of, and about 723.9 million pounds for the beef, and about 238.71 million pounds for tilapia fish, while the consumer yield is about 321.56 million pounds for beef, and about 219.31 million pounds for white chicken, and about 198.85 million pounds of tilapia fish which shows that the product achieves gains under the new policy. The changes in government revenue, which is estimated at 2504.34 million pounds, of which about 1578.88million pounds for beef, about 443.37 million pounds for white chicken, and about 482.09 million pounds for tilapia fish. In the second scenario in the study the production supposed to be increased by about 25% so from the multi-market model study of the new price levels, which is expected decreased by about 17% for beef, 15% for white chicken, and 40% for the tilapia fish. Therefore The study recommended the need to be very careful in terms of pricing policies as its texture with consumption and incomes may lead to social problems, in addition, to use of an appropriate policy instruments and consistent with the prevailing society 's economic system.
‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺸﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎل‬