‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺒﻬﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻤﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻁﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻁﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﺭﺱ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ -‫ﺒﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬


‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬

١٥٣٣ ٤ - ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺩﻨﻲ‬ ٥,٠٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٨٢ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗـﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٤١,٨٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ١٨,٨ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨـﻲ‬ ‫ﺤـﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ٤٥,٦٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٢٧٦,٥ ‫ﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ١٣٠,٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨـﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ١٥,٦٨ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ١٠,٧ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( . ٥ - ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٠,٩٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٨٢ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ١,٦١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ١,١٤ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١,٨٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٣,٤٧ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴـﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ٢,٧١ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ٠,٠٢١ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١,٨٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ٢ ( . ٦ - ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ل‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ١١,٠٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٢ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻲ‬ ١٥,٤٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ١٣,٥ ‫ﺤـ‬ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ١٩٨٢ - ١٩٨٦ ١٩٨٧ - ١٩٩١ ١٩٩٢ - ١٩٩٦ ١٩٩٧ - ٢٠٠١ ٢٠٠٢ - ٢٠٠٦ ٢٠٠٧ - ٢٠١١ ٢٠١٢ - ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻥ‬ . ‫ﻡ‬ . ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٣٦,٣٦ ٩٢,٨٦ ١٩٢,٢ ٣١٠,٤ ٥٢٨,٨ ١١٤٧,٨ ١٨٠٩ ‫ﻥ‬ . ‫ﻡ‬ . ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ٦,٩٨٨ ١٦,٩٥٢ ٣٢,٥٦٢ ٥٢,١٦٨ ٧٧,٩٣ ١٦٣,٥٨ ٢٥٤,٥٩ % ١٩,١٧٦ ١٨,٥٦٤ ١٦,٩٢٢ ١٦,٨٣٦ ١٤,٨٩٦ ١٤,١٦ ١٤,٠٥ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ٨,٩٣٨ ٢٥,٤١١٢ ٤٨,٤٣٢ ٦٤,١٦ ١٠٣,٠٤ ٢٢٠,٧٢ ٢٧٤,٨٥ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ٠,٦٦٨٢ ١,٧٦٩٤ ٣,٧٨٥٤ ٨,٥ ٧,٣٨ ٧,٢٦ ٧,٢٥ % ٧,٦ ٦,٩ ٧,٨٤ ١٣,٢٤ ٧,٧ ٣,٣٤ ٢,٦٢٥ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١,٠٧٢ ١,١٠٤ ١,٢٤٦ ٢,٣٦٢ ٢,٤٧ ٢,٩٥٤ ٣,١٤٧٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ١٣,٣٥٦ ١٣,٧٩ ١٣,٣٤٨ ١٨,٠١ ٢١,١٨ ٢٦,٥٦٢ ٢٧,٣٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ٣٧,٢٤٨ ٤١,٠٢٤ ٤٢,٦٠٦ ٦١,٥٩٨ ٧٩,٤٢٤ ١٣٨,١ ١٩٥,٠٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ٩,٦٠ ١٠,٤٥ ١٠,٠٣٢ ١٣,٢٢ ١٥,٤ ١٩,٤٤ ١٩,٨٩ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ١,٤٢٧٠ ٢,٠٥ ١,٦٢٢٥ ٢,٥٤ ٢,٤٨٧ ٢,٧٧ ١٥,٣٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﻐل‬ ٤١٨٨ ٤٤٢٥ ٤٦٢٠,٤ ٤٨٥٨,٦ ٥٢٢٩,٨ ٦٣٩٤,٥٤ ٥٩٨١,١٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ % ١٣ ١٣,٤ ١٦,٤ ١٥,٤٦ ١٣,٥ ١١,٧ ١٤,٣٥ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ١,٥٤٤ ٢,٤٣ ٣,٣٧٢ ٣,٧٤ ٥,٦٠٨ ٥,٥٦ ٦,٩ ‫ﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ % ٧,٧٧٦ ١١,٤٢ ٩,٦٤٨ ٩,١٢ ٧,٢٦ ٨,٧٦ ٩,١٥
= ١٨,٢٨ + ١٥,٦٨ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١٥,٨٦ ( ** ١٠٧,١٤ ٢٥١,٦ ٠,٩٥ ١٤,٦ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١١٩,٥ + ١٠٢,٣ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫ‬ ‫ـ‬ ) ١٥,٣٩ ( ** ٩٠٣,٧ ٢٣٦,٩ ٠,٩٣ ١١,٣٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻩ‬ = ١١٥,٢ + ٢,٥٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫ‬ ‫ـ‬ ) ٠,٠٩ ( - ١٣٥,٩ ٠,٠٠ ٠,٠٠ ١,٨٩ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١٨,٢٨ + ١٥,٦٨ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١٣,٥٦ ( ** ١٣٠,٨ ١٨٣,٩ ٠,٩٢ ١٠,٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٤,٧٢ + ٤,٠٣ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١٣,٣٣ ( ** ٢٧,٦ ١٧٧,٦٩ ٠,٩٣ ١٤,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٦,٧٨ + ١٥,٣٢ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١٥,٨٦ ( ** ١٥٩,٩ ٢٧٢,٢ ٠,٩٤ ٩,٥٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٤٦٦ + ٠,٣١٨ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١٢,٢٩ ( ** ٢,٠٧ ١٥١,٣ ٠,٩٢ ١٥,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ = ٨,٣٢ - ٠,٠٦٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) - ١,٩١ ( * ٧,٦٣ ٣,٦٤ ٠,١٨ - ٠,٩٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٩٦٧ + ٠,٠٢١ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٢,١١ ( * ١,١٤ ٤,٤٥ ٠,٢٦ ١,٨٨ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٢,٣٩ + ٠,٠١٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٠,٩٥ ( - ٢,٥٥ ٠,٨٩ ٠,٠٥ ٠,٦٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١٣,١٤ + ٠,٠٤٤ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٠,٥٧ ( - ١٣,٥ ٠,٣٣ ٠,٠٢ ٠,٣٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١٨,٥٩ + ٠,٢٨٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١,٥٠ ( - ٢١,٥ ١,١٢ ٠,٠٦ ١,٣٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٩٤٥٤,٦ + ٧١,٨٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١,٣ ( - ١٠٠٢٩,٨ ١,٥٩ ٠,١١ ٠,٧٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ = ٣٦٢٦,٦ + ٥٠٨,٦ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٧,٩ ( ** ١٦٨٥٠,٤ ٦٣,٣ ٠,٧٩ ٣,٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٤٠٦٦,٢ + ٤٣,١٢ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٥٦,٣ ( ** ٤٤١١,١ ٣١٦٦,٤ ٠,٩٩ ٠,٩٧ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ = ٣٠٦٤,٨ + ٩٧,٣٨ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٥,٤٩ ( ** ٥٥٩٦,٨ ٣٠,٢ ٠,٦٤ ١,٧٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ = ٣٠,٨٨ + ١٨,٢٠ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٥٠,٦ ( ** ١٧٦,٥ ٥٦٣٣,٥ ٠,٩٩ ١٠,٣ ‫ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٣٦,٢٩ + ١٧,١٥ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٧٦,١٣ ( ** ٤٨٢,٢ ٥٧٩٦,٣ ٠,٩٩ ٣,٥٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١٥٠٢,٨ + ٢٤,٨ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١,٣ ( - ١٧٠١,٤ ١,٦ ٠,١١ ١,٤٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ = ١٤٨٣٠١ + ٧٧٣,٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٢,٧ ( * ٥٢٨٧,٥ ٧,١٦ ٠,٣٠ ٤,٦٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١,٠٢٩ + ٠,١٧٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١٥,٧ ( ** ٢,٤ ٢٤٥,٨ ٠,٩٥ ٧,٤ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٢٥٧ + ٠,١٩٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٨,٩ ( ** ٥,٤ ٧٩,١ ٠,٨٢ ٣,٧

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬

  

	‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒـﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﻭﻤﻰ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘـﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﺌل‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ . ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘـﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺴﻴ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒـﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴـﻪ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴـﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺩﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ﻗـﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻓﻀﻼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ٩,٨ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ) ٦ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ : ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻓﻊ‬ ٧,٢ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢,٣٩ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ٣٠١,٢ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٥ / ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﺘﻤﺎﺸﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٧٥ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٤,١٣ % ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ١٩٤٦ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺘﺠﻬﺎ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺭﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌـﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻜـﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺒـﺎﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤـﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻫـﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ) ١٩٨٢ / ١٩٨٣ -٢٠١٥ / ٢٠١٦ ( ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ) ١٩٨٢ -١٩٩٦ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤـﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻗﺒـل‬ ‫ﻓﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻤﺜل‬ ، ‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ) ١٩٩٧ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﺭ‬ : ١ -‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻫﻡ‬ ٣ -‫ﺍﻻﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺤﻴﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌـﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤـﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺄﺴـﻠﻭﺏ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ Dummy Variables ‫ﻋﻠـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ CHOW Test ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔـﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻘـﺎﻴﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻌـﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ١٥٣٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ . ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ) ١٩٨٢ -٢٠١٥ :( ١ -‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ : ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ٦,٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٨٢ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗـﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٦٨,٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٢٧,٦ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ٦١,٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٣٠١,٢ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴـﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٥٩,٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ٤,٠٣ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٤,٦ % ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٥,٣٢ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٩,٥٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ٢ ( . ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ : ‫ﺘﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺭ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺩﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ٠,٥٠٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ١٩٨٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٥,١٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٦ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢,١ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ٥,٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﺍﻷﻗـﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤـﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٩,٥٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٧,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ٠,٣١٨ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌـﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴـﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ١٥,٣ % ‫ﺒﻤﻘـﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ٠,٠٦٩ ‫ﺒﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ -٠,٩٥ % ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ٢ ( . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ) ١٩٨٢ -٢٠١٥ :( ‫ﻤـﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ،‬ ‫ﺨل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ، ) ١٩٨٢ -٢٠١٥ ( ، ‫ﺍﻵﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ) ١٩٨٢ -١٩٩٦ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻤﺜـل‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٧ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻭﺫ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ . ٣ -‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻷﺩﻨﻲ‬ ٢٥,٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٨٢ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗـﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٢٤٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ١٠٧,١ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨـﻲ‬ ‫ﺤـﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ٢٦٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ١٩٤٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٩٠٣,٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ١٥,٦٨ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٤,٦ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ١٠٢,٣ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١١,٣٢ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ٢ ( .

‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ١٥٣٦ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬ :

  ‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒـﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴـﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺭﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺠﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ . 


	‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ) ١ ‫ﺩ‬ .( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ١ -‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﻲ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻵﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٠,٧١٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ١٩٩٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ٠,٠٢٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٠,١٠٥ ‫ﻭﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٠,٠٨٧ ‫ﺨ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ :( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻟﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺜﺘﻤﺎﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘ‬ ، ‫ﻘـﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺃﺩﻨـﻰ‬ ‫ﺤـﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٥,٥٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٧ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ٤١,٤٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٩,٦٤ ‫ﻭﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٧,٩٩ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻟﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ٤ -‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ : ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﺴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺤﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻁﻥ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺼل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻗـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻭﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٠,١٦٤ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ، ٠,٨٦٢ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٤١٢ % ‫ﻭﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ٠,٤٤٣ % ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ . ‫ﻭﻴﻼﺤـﻅ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ل‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨـﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٦,٦٧ % ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ، ١٤,٣٨ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٨,٤٢ % ‫ﻭﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١,٣٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ . ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ٧ -‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ : ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻘﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١,٤٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻬﺎ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺃﻗـﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻬﺎ‬ ١٩٨٣ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٨,٠٥ ‫ﻭﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻬﺎ‬ ٢,٢٧ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻬـﺎ‬ ١٨,٢٠ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺼـﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﺍﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺨل،‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼل‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺩﺨـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺤل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻅﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٠,١٢٥ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٨٣ ، ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ١,٩٢٩ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠـﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ / ‫ﻭﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١,٣٨٨ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻅﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ٢٠١٠ ، ٢٠١٢ ٥ -‫ﺍﻷﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ٢٢,٥ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺒﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻟﻪ‬ ، ٢٢٧,٤ % ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٨٣ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٨٩,٩ % ‫ﻭﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣٤,٤ % ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺭ‬ ٦ -‫ﻟﻺﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ : ‫ﻟﻼﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﺴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ . ‫ﻭﻴﺤـﺴﺏ‬ . ‫ﺇﻟـﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜـﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ،‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ . ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻋـﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﺭﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺜﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٠,٤٥٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻤـل‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻅﻴـﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺭﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻅﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤـل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﻜـﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻅﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻠﻤﺎ‬ : ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ١٥٣٧ ٤ -" ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻅﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ :( ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺤﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : 
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ١٥٣٨ ‫ﺒ‬

  ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤـﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻘﻁـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ . ‫ﻜـل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻭﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺓ‬ . 


	) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴل‬ ١٩٨٢ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﻟﻺﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ( ٧,٧٤ ٩٠,١٦ ٩,١٧ ٢٠,١٨ ٨,٢٣ ٠٩,١٤ ٧,٣٢ ٧٨,١٣ ٧,٧٤ ٤٣,١١ ٧,٨٦ ٢٠,١٠ ٨,٤٢ ٥٨,٧ ٨,٢٩ ٠٧,٦ ٧,٤٧ ٢٢,٥ ٨,٠٠ ٦٤,٣ ٧,٧٧ ٠٤,٣ ٨,٢٠ ٩٥,٢ ١٠,٠٢ ٩٥,٢ ٩,٦٢ ٤٧,٢ ١٠,٤٤ ٢٢,٢ ٤١٩,٨ ٠٥٠,٨ ١١,٢٣ ٥٧,١ ١٢,٥٤ ٥٣,١ ١٣,٢٢ ٦٤,١ ١٤,٣٨ ٦١,١ ١٣,٩٠ ٤٥,١ ١٣,٧٨ ٨٨,١ ١٢,٥١ ١٥,٢ ١١,٥٣ ٩٨,١ ١٠,٤٣ ٢٥,٢ ١٠,٤٦ ٢١,٢ ١٠,٠٠ ٥٦,٢ ١١,٣١ ٢٨,٢ ١١,٢٥ ٧٦,٢ ١١,٤٥ ٩٣,٢ ١١,٥٧ ٩٧,٢ ١١,٦٨ ٨٥,٣ ١١,٦٨ ٩٢,١ ٦,٧٠ ٥٤,٢ ٦,٦٧ ١٤,٣ ٣٧٩,١١ ٢٧٢,٢	‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ٠,١٠٠ ٠,٠٩١ ٠,١٠٤ ٠,١٠٠ ٠,٠٨٨ ٠,١٠١ ٠,٠٩٠ ٠,٠٩٧ ٠,١٠٧ ٠,١٢٠ ٠,١١٠ ٠,١١٦ ٠,١٠٥ ٠,١٢١ ٠,١٢٤ ١٠٥,٠ ٠,١٧٩ ٠,١٧٢ ٠,١٥٤ ٠,١٤٩ ٠,١٦٤ ٠,١١٨ ٠,٠٩٢ ٠,١٠١ ٠,٠٩١ ٠,٠٨٠ ٠,٠٦٩ ٠,٠٦٠ ٠,٠٤٣ ٠,٠٣٥ ٠,٠٣١ ٠,٠٢٤ ٠,٠٣٤ ٠,٠٣٠ ٠,٠٢٥ ٠٨٧,٠ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ) ٣ :( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻰ‬ ) ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ١٠,٠٢ ٠,٣٩٠ ٠,١٢٣ ١٨٥,٦٢ ١١,٠٢ ٠,٤٠٠ ٠,١٢٥ ٢٢٧,٤١ ٩,٦٢ ٠,٤٧٢ ٠,١٥٨ ١٥٧,٦٢ ١٠,٠٣ ٠,٣٨٢ ٠,١٨١ ١٤٢,٦٨ ١١,٣٧ ٠,٣٤١ ٠,٢٠٨ ١٢٣,٥٦ ٩,٩١ ٠,٣٦٢ ٠,٢٥٩ ١٠٨,٤٧ ١١,١٤ ٠,٣٠٢ ٠,٣٠٦ ٨٣,٥٨ ١٠,٣٢ ٠,٣٣٩ ٠,٣٨٨ ٦٤,٥٤ ٩,٣٥ ٠,٣٨٦ ٠,٤٥٧ ٥٠,٧٣ ٨,٣٤ ٠,٤٨٥ ٠,٥٨١ ٣٩,٣٦ ٩,٠٥ ٠,٤٩٣ ٠,٥٩٣ ٣١,٨١ ٨,٦٥ ٠,٤٧١ ٠,٦٩٤ ٣٢,٢٦ ٩,٤٨ ٠,٤٣٨ ٠,٧٣٢ ٣٨,٦٠ ٨,٢٥ ٠,٤٧٢ ٠,٩٦٢ ٣١,٦١ ٨,٠٧ ٠,٤٤٧ ١,١٠٦ ٣١,٠٧ ٦٤٢,٩ ٤١٢,٠ ٤٥٨,٠ ٩٢٩,٨٩ ٥,٥٩ ٠,٧٧٩ ١,٧١٩ ٢٢,٩٩ ٥,٨١ ٠,٧٦١ ١,٧٥٣ ٢٥,٥١ ٦,٥٠ ٠,٧٥٥ ١,٦٧٤ ٢٩,٦٤ ٦,٧١ ٠,٧٧٧ ١,٦٦٨ ٣٢,٦٦ ٦,٠٩ ٠,٨٦٢ ١,٩٢٩ ٢٨,٠٨ ٨,٥٠ ٠,٦٧٦ ١,٤٩٣ ٣٦,٠٧ ١٠,٨٢ ٠,٥٢٩ ١,٢٥٤ ٣٨,٠٦ ٩,٩١ ٠,٥٢٩ ١,٤٦٤ ٣٠,٨٩ ١١,٠٥ ٠,٤٥٤ ١,٣٩٩ ٣٢,٠٢ ١٢,٤٤ ٠,٣٦٧ ١,٤٤٥ ٣٠,٩٩ ١٤,٥٠ ٠,٢٩٦ ١,٢٩٦ ٣٤,٣٤ ١٦,٧٢ ٠,٢٨٨ ١,٢٧٧ ٣٥,٢٦ ٢٣,٣٣ ٠,٢١٣ ١,٠٢٩ ٤٢,٥٥ ٢٨,٣٨ ٠,٢٠١ ٠,٩٤٧ ٤٥,٩٩ ٣٢,٠٩ ٠,١٨٧ ١,١٦٦ ٤٧,٢٢ ٤١,٤٢ ٠,١٦٩ ٠,٩١٥ ٦١,٨٥ ٢٩,٦٥ ٠,٢٢٥ ١,٣٧٣ ٣٠,٦٧ ٣٢,٩٢ ٠,١٩١ ١,٤٣٥ ٢٢,٥٢ ٣٩,٢٩ ٠,١٦٤ ١,١٢٩ ٢٦,٩٣ ٩٨٦,١٧ ٤٤٣,٠ ٣٨٨,١ ٣٨٧,٣٤ ‫ﻟﻠﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ١٩٨٢ ١٩٨٣ ١٩٨٤ ١٩٨٥ ١٩٨٦ ١٩٨٧ ١٩٨٨ ١٩٨٩ ١٩٩٠ ١٩٩١ ١٩٩٢ ١٩٩٣ ١٩٩٤ ١٩٩٥ ١٩٩٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٩٩٧ ١٩٩٨ ١٩٩٩ ٢٠٠٠ ٢٠٠١ ٢٠٠٢ ٢٠٠٣ ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٥ ٢٠٠٦ ٢٠٠٧ ٢٠٠٨ ٢٠٠٩ ٢٠١٠ ٢٠١١ ٢٠١٢ ٢٠١٣ ٢٠١٤ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ١ --‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ . ٢ -‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ .

  

‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ (F) ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ : 

Summary

Promoting higher investment growth rates is a priority for economic development goals. Where development can not be achieved without adequate investment. 
The problem of the study was limited by the decline in the volume of investments directed to the agricultural sector. despite the importance of this sector in increasing the rate of economic growth. 
The study aims to measure the impact of economic policies on agricultural investments in Egypt and to identify the efficiency of agricultural investments through some economic indicators. as well as to identify the size of agricultural investments and the most important factors affecting them. and measuring the relationship of agricultural investment to the most important economic economic variables during the study period. 
The results of the criteria for measuring investment efficiency showed an efficiency in agricultural investments during the study period The rate of investment and settlement factor was less than one This indicates the existence of efficiency in the forms .The return on investment was greater than one and the results showed that the agriculture sector is an intensive sector of capital. 
The results indicated that the most important determinants of agricultural investment in Egypt (as a dependent variable) as a function in a number of economic determinants (as independent variables). which are agricultural income. agricultural savings. added value and local liquidity. The increase of these variables by one billion pounds each. Agricultural by 4.96. 0.247. 0.016 billion pounds. respectively. 
While the negative impact on local liquidity. while the interest rate on loans was negative. which means that the increase in interest on agricultural loans leads to a By measuring the effect of the policy of economic liberalization on agricultural investments during the period using the Chow Test. it was found that the value of the calculated F is greater than the tabular meaning that the difference is statistically significant. There is a difference between the general trend test equations for the two study periods. The results show that agricultural investments increased by 15.67% to 102.3 billion pounds. an increase of about 16.2%. 11.75% of the average agricultural investments of about 97.2 and 870.9 billion pounds as an average for the first and second period of the study. respectively. 
The study recommends increasing agricultural investments by adopting a monetary policy to reduce the interest rate to encourage investment in agricultural projects. as well as adopting a fiscal policy to reduce taxes as a means to stimulate the investor.
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺒﻬﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻤﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻁﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻁﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﺭﺱ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ -‫ﺒﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬