‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ٦٨٧ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬


‫ﻑ‬ ١ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٥٩١٢٤,٣٥ - ٢٠٩٤,٩٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٣٨,٣٠ ( ** - ) ١٢,٢٤ **( - ٤,٩٥ ٠,٩٢١ ١٥٢,٢٤ * ٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٣١,٦٢ + ١٦٥,٥٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٠,٠٤ ( ) ١,٦٨ ( ١٢,٤٧ ٠,١٧٨ ٢,٨٣ ٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١٤٣,٨٥ + ٣,٠٩٢ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ١,١ ) ( ٠,٢٢ ( ١,٨٣ ٠,٠٠٤ ٠,٠٥ ٤ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٧٤٢٢,٥٠ - ١٦٩,٨٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٢١,٦١ ( ** ) ٤,٥٠ ( ** - ٢,٨٠ ٠,٦٠٩ ٢٠,٢٢ ٥ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٩٣٣,٩٤ - ٢٦,٥١ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٢٢,٩٩ ( ** - ) ٥,٩٣ ( ** - ٣,٦٧ ٠,٧٣٠ ٣٥,٢٠ ٦ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٥٧٠,٧٥ - ١٨,٤٣ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٢٣,٥٤ **( ) - ٦,٩١ ( ** - ٤,٣٥ ٠,
( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٧٣,٨ % ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٤ .( ٣ - ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ٠,١٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٣ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٨,٣٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٣ ، ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٨٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٣ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١,٣٨ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ، ٢٠٠١ ، ٢٠٠٢ ، ٢٠٠٣ .
‫ﻤﻌ‬ 
٧٦١٣,٥ ٣٤,٦٠ ٠,٠ ١٠٢٥,٦٠ ١٣٠,٨٨ ٧٩,٢٨ ٢٠٠١ ٨٦٠٦,٦ ٢٣,٥٠ ٠,٠ ١٠٤١,٥٤ ١٣١,٠٨ ٨٠,١٧ ٢٠٠٢ ٨١٣٣,٣ ١١٥,١٠ ٠,٠ ٩٩٢,٠٦ ١٢١,٧٦ ٧٤,٦٦ ٢٠٠٣ ٩٤٧٩,٩ ٧٢,٧٠ ٠,١٠ ١٠٣٤,٢٩ ١٢٧,٤٩ ٧٧,٣٣ ٢٠٠٤ ١٠٣٥٤,٧ ٢٤,٣٠ ٠,٥٠ ١٣٧٣,٥٤ ١٦٥,٩١ ١٠٢,٣٧ ٢٠٠٥ ١١١٥٩,٩ ٨٣,٢٠ ٢,٥٠ ١٣٩٠,٩٣ ١٦٥,٨٨ ١٠١,٠٦ ٢٠٠٦ ١٠٣٧٣,٣ ٢٨,٥٠ ٠,٥٠ ١٢٩٨,٧٦ ١٥٤,٤١ ٨٧,٠٤ ٢٠٠٧ ٩٣٨٨,١ ٤٥,٥٠ ١,٠ ١١٩٨,١٥ ١٤٢,٢٥ ٧٨,٩١ ٢٠٠٨ 
‫ﻑ‬ ١ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٩٠٨٢,٠٩ - ٤٩,٣٤ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٨,٠٣ ( ** - ) ٠,٤٠ ( - ٠,٥٧ ٠,٠١٢ ٠,١٦ ٢ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = - ٨١,١٤ + ٣٤,٩٣ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ - ) ١,٥٥ ) ( ٦,٠٦ ( ** ١٧,٦١ ٠,٧٣٨ ٣٦,٧١ ** ٣ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = - ٠,٧٧ + ٠,٢٦٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ - ) ٠,٨١ ) ( ٢,٥٨ ( ** ١٩,٤٩ ٠,٣٣٩ ٦,٦٦ * ٤ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٩٠٥,٨١ + ٤٩,٧٦ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٦,٩٦ ( ** ) ٣,٤٨ ( ** ٣,٨٢ ٠,٤٨٢ ١٢,٠٨ ** ٥ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١١٧,٧٣ + ٤,٤٨ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ) ٣,٥١ ( ** ) ٢,٧٠ ( ** ٢,٩٢ ٠,٣٦٠ ٧,٣٠ ** ٦ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٧٣,١٧ + ٢,٠٤ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ) ٧,٩٤ ( ** ) ٢,٠٢ ( * ٢,٢٨ ٠,٢١٨ ٤,٦ * ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ = ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻫـ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ = ١ ، ٢ ، ٣ ، ……

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ٦٨٨ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬

  ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻼﺝ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺘﻬﺎ،ﻭﻟﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻔﺎﻗﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻀﻭﺍﺒﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﺨﺭ،‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺫ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻨﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ 


	‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺘﻤﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﻫﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣٠ -٥٠ % ‫ﺃﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺒﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺘل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢,٠١ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺘﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣٦,٣٤ % ، ‫ﻴﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻨﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣٧,١٠ % ، ١٥,٨ % ، ٨٠,٦ % ، ١٠,٣ % ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺘﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١,٣١ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﺯﻴل،‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ،‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ،‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻨﺩﺍ،‬ ‫ﺇﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺎ،‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺨﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ،‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻼ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻟﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ،‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺸﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺎﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺭﻭﺠﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻠﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﺭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﻭﺭ‬ ) ‫ﻓﻭﺴﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﺭﻴﺎ‬ ( ‫ﺫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻠﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺭﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﺫ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻀﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٧ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺍﻀﻴﻬﻡ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻀﻌﻔﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻨﻭﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺭﻭﺠﻴﻨﻴ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺸﻴﻭﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﺤﻭﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺭﻭﺠﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٦٠ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٤ % ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٦ % ، ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥٠ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ، ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻨﺠﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺘﻬﺠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ،‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻟﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺠﺎﺤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺭﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻜﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺜﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻵﺨﺭ،ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ،ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﻭﻁﻠﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻭﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻨ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﺽ،‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺼﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻨﺎﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻭﻟﻴﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻭﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻴﻭ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﺴﻁﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‬ ١ -‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻭﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺴ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ٣ -‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٤ -‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻅﻴﺭﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺼﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ،‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ١ -‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ،‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ٢ -‫ﺘﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺩﻭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٣ -‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼ‬ ‫ﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺭﻭﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻲ‬ ، ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻠﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻲ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺩﻭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺩﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻼ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ : ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻤﻊ‬ : . ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ . . ‫ﻭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ : : . ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺘﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻸﺯﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻓﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺸﻜﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ١٧ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬

  ‫ﻴﺘﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤـﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﻜ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻴﻤـﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻼ‬ ‫ﻗﻠﻴﻥ،‬ ‫ﻔﺭﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ،‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻁﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻤﻭل،‬ ‫ﻤﻁﻭﺒﺱ،‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻹﺠـﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ 


	٦٨٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗـ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺘﺒـﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﺎﻓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺯﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺭﻭﺠﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺘـﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ --٤ ٥ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺴﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁـﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺩﺭﻴﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﻤﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅـﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭﺍﻟـﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺴﻨﺔ‬ ٢٠١٥ / ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻨﻤﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻴﺯ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٩٠ ‫ﻫـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻬﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺯﺍﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﻭﻤﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺯﻋﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ،‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ٣٠ ‫ﻜﻔﺭﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ، ‫ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤـﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺇ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻰ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺠﻤﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺘﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺴـﻤﺩﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺩﻭﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ٧٠ % ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٤٠ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻴﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺨﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ٢٢ % ‫ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻻ‬ : ‫ﻭﺇﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ١ -‫ﺃﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٢,٢٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٥٣,٩٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,٤٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٤٢,٣٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ١ .( ، ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻩ‬ : ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ،‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺯﺍﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ : : . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺴـﺎﺌل‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﺘـﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺯ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ،‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﻪ‬ : . ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻫـﻡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬

  
	٦٩٠ ‫ﻓ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ : ( ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ : ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ -‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻠﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ -‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ .( ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬
	‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ ٢,٠٩ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ١ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٤,٩٥ % ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٩٢,١ % ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ،‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( . ٢ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ٣٦,٢٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٤٣٩٣,٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٢١,٣٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٣٢٨,٣٣ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢ .( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﺅﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٢ .( ٣ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٤,٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٨٩٧,٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢١٣,٦٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٦ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٦٨,٥٩ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺴﺔ،‬ ) ١ .( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﺅﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٢ .(

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬

  
	٦٩١ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٦٠٦٣,٣٥ ٧٧٣٤,٠٧ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ٤٢٦٥,٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ٤ -‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١,٨١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ) ١ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٦٩,٨٩ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢,٨٠ % ) ٤ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٢ ٥ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ٤٧٨,٣٥ ‫ﺨﻼ‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ل‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٩٤٩,٢٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١,٩٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٧٢١,٨٦ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ) ١ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ٢٦,٥١ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ، ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ١ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٣,٦٧ % ‫ﺍﻟـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴـﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ٧٣,٠ % ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ،‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٢ ٦ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺤ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٧٣,٣٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٥٨٢,٠٣ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,١٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٤٢٣,٣٢ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ١ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺼ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ، ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ١ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٤,٣٦ % ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺩل‬ ) ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٧٨,٦ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ،‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ ) ٦ ( ) ٢ ( ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ‫ﻭﺇﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ١ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ٤,٢٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١١,١٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,٦٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻠ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻎ‬ ٨,٦٩ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٣ .( ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ١٨,٤٣ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ .( ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ : .( ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴـﻁ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠـﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ .( ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ : .( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﻪ‬ .( ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬

  
	٦٩٢ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ : ( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ % ‫ﺭ‬ ٢

‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬

  
	‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٦٩٣ : ٩١٨,٩٦ ٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٩٣٦,٨٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,١١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٣٠٣,٨٦ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ) ٣ .( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ٤٩,٧٦ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻱ‬ ١ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٣,٨٢ % ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٤٨,٢ % ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٤ .( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٣ ( : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ٢٠٠٠
	‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ٠,٢٦٩ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ٥ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٩,٤٩ % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٣٣,٩ % ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٤ .(

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ - ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻠﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ - ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺔ‬

  
	‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ٢٠١٨	‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬	-	‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬	‫ﺩ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
	٧٨,٦٣ ٥٩,٣١ ٧٣,٥١ ١٠٤,٢٦ ١٢٢,٢٥ ١٢٥,٠٩ ٩٨,٥٣ ٨٩,٤٩	١٤٢,١٤ ١٠٤,٦٣ ١٢٦,٧٤ ١٨٥,٧٣ ٢١٦,٢٥ ٢١٦,٣١ ١٧٢,٤٢ ١٥٣,٥٩	١١٩٨,٥٥ ٩١٨,٩٦ ١١٠٧,٨٢ ١٦٠٠,٨٣ ١٩٠٢,٧٧ ١٩٣٦,٨٠ ١٥٣٧,٣٠ ١٣٠٣,٨٦	٠,٧٠ ١,٥٠ ٠,٦٠ ١,٣٠ ١,٩٠ ٨,٣٠ ١,٨١ ١,٣٨		٣٨٥,٤٠ ١٢٧,٩٠ ٣٣٦,١٠ ٣١٨,٤٠ ٤٣٤,٩٠ ٤١١,٣٠ ٥٣٣,٢٠ ١٩٨,٣١	٩٢٤٣,٤ ٤٢٢٦,٧ ٤٦٣٠,١ ٨٩٢١,٢ ١١٠٦٨,٧ ٨٩٣٢,٧ ٨١٧٨,٩ ٨٦٨٧,٤	٢٠٠٩ ٢٠١٠ ٢٠١١ ٢٠١٢ ٢٠١٣ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬
	٥ ١٠٤,٦٣ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢١٦,٣١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,٠٧ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻩ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٥٣,٥٩ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٣ .( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٤,٤٨ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ،‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ١ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢,٩٢ % ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٣٦,٠ % ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ،‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٤ .(

‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬

  
	٦٩٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٤ .( ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ % ‫ﺭ‬ ٢	‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٤ : (

١٦ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ :

  
	‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬			‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬	‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
	.(	) ٣	‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬	‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬
	٦ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ : ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ٥٩,٣١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ٢٠١٣ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,١٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺘﺒ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٢٥,٠٩ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٨٩,٤٩ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٣ .( ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢,٠٤ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ، ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ٥ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢,٢٨ % ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺘ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺭﺓ‬ ) ‫ﺭ‬ ٢ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٢١,٨ % ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ،‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺘﻴﺔ‬ ) ٦ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٤ .( ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬ : ‫ﻷﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ١ -‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻪ‬ : ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٤٤,٦٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٤٤٨,٢١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٧ ، ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣,١٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨ‬ ‫ﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٨٤,٣٦ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٥ ( . ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﺅﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٦ ( ٣ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻪ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٩,٣٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٨,٠٤ ‫ﺨﻼ‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ل‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٩,٧٢ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺠﺭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٥ .(

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ٦٩٥ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٥ : ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ٢٠٠٠ - ٢٠١٤ .

  
	‫ﻤﺯﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ٢٢,٦٦ ٤٣,١٣ ٤٥,٧٣ ٢٩,٤٤ ٣٣,١٥ ٣٥,٩٨ ٣٧,٣٢ ٥٣,٢١ ٤٠,٩١ ١٦,٤٧ ٣٦,٩٤ ٣١,٣١ ٢٩,٣٦ ٢٦,٣٠ ٢٤,٥٩ ٣٣,٧٧	‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ١٣,٧٢ ٢٦,٣٨ ٢٨,٠٤ ١٧,٨٥ ٢٠,٤٦ ٢١,٩٢ ٢١,٠٤ ٢٩,٥٢ ٢٢,٦٣ ٩,٣٣ ٢١,٤٢ ١٧,٥٨ ١٦,٦٠ ٢١,١٥ ١٤,٠٥ ١٩,٧٢	‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ١٧٧,٥٤ ٣٤٢,٧١ ٣٧٢,٦٢ ٢٣٨,٨١ ٢٧٤,٤٧ ٣٠١,٧٣ ٣١٣,٩٠ ٤٤٨,٢١ ٣٤٤,٩١ ١٤٤,٦٣ ٣٢٢,٨٦ ٢٦٩,٨٩ ٢٥٨,٣٦ ٢٣٥,٥٠ ٢١٩,٢٠ ٢٨٤,٣٦	‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ٢٠٠١ ٢٠٠٢ ٢٠٠٣ ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٥ ٢٠٠٦ ٢٠٠٧ ٢٠٠٨ ٢٠٠٩ ٢٠١٠ ٢٠١١ ٢٠١٢ ٢٠١٣ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬

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years have witnessed a significant increase for the prices of the accessories of agricultural production in general. specially the chemical fertilizers due to the increase of the demand for it. in order to increase the demand for food as a result of increasing the population over time. 
By studying the development of the total production of nitrogen fertilizers as million tons during the period of study. it was shown that the minimum production was during 2014 (22.27 million ton). By studying the development of the total production of phosphorus fertilizers during the period of study. it was that the minimum production was during 2009 The relative importance of the availability of fertilizers. the adequacy of the quota and the time of payment from the point of view of the farmers of the studied crops. By surveying the views of rice farmers in the sample on the availability of fertilizers in the agricultural associations. about 56.67% of the farmers reported that the fertilizers are available. while about 30.0% of the farmers indicated that the fertilizers are available to some extent. but about 13.33% of the farmers reported that the fertilizers were not available. For the survey of rice farmers about the availability of fertilizers in the agricultural associations. 56% of the farmers reported that the fertilizers are available. while about2.0% of the farmers indicated that the fertilizers are available to some extent. but about 12%of the farmers reported that the fertilizers were not available. For the survey of sugar beet farmers about the availability of fertilizers in the agricultural associations 23.% of the farmers reported that the 

٧٠٦

fertilizers are available. while about of the farmers indicated that the fertilizers are available to some extent. but about of the farmers reported that the fertilizers were not available. 
The estimation of production flexibility used in rice production for the sources of phosphate nitrogen fertilizers (from urea). it reached 0 and that reflect that the production in the second stage (the economic stage). the production flexibility of corn crop for the suppliers of phosphate fertilizers and total nitrogen fertilizers reached about 0.084 and 0.913. that is reflect that the production in the second stage (the economic stage). while the production flexibility of sugar beet crop for the suppliers of phosphate. nitrogen and potassium fertilizers reached about. that is reflect that the production in the second stage (the economic stage).
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ٦٨٧ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬