‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺤﺴﺎﻨﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻁﺎﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻗﺎﺯﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬


: ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺱ‬ ٦ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) ٠ - ‫ﺍﻨﺜﻲ‬ ) ( ١ - ‫ﺫﻜﺭ‬ ( ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ ٢ ‫ﻩ‬ ‫ــ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) ٠ - ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ) ( ١ - ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ . ‫ﺃ،ﺏ‬ ١ ، ... ‫ﺏ‬ ، ‫ﻥ‬ : ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ . ٢ - ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ٣,١٢ ‫ﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ( ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٥٥,٦٥ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٥,٤ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ١,٦٨ ‫ﺍﻓ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﻠﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ٢,١٦ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٢,٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٧٠,٧ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺘﺞ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٦,٤١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ) ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ٢,٩٢ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ١,٢٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ) ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻬﺩﺍﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﻜﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺠﻭﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ١٩,٦٥ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ٥,١٥ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ٨٠,٣٥ % ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﺎ‬ ١,٩٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٦١,٧٥ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺘﺞ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٥,٧٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ) ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ١,٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ) ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺠﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻬﺩﺍﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﻜﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺠﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﻴﻪ‬ ( ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ٢٩,٥١ % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٤,
= ٠,٤١ + ٠,٥٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) ٢,٤٦ ) ( ١٦,٠٢ **( ٠,٨١٥٧ **٢٥٦,٦٢ ‫ﺹ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٢٨ + ٠,٥٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ + ٠,١٩ ‫ﺩ‬ ١ ) ٠,٩٧ ) ( ١٥,٢٦ ) **( ٠,٥٨ ( ٠,٨١٦٧ **١٢٧,٠١ ٧٤,٣١ ** ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٢٧ + ٠,٥٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ + ٠,٢ ‫ﺩ‬ ٢ ) ٠,٩٨ ) ( ١٥,٤٢ ) **( ٠,٦٣ ( ٠,٨١٠٥ **١٢٧,١٩ **٧٤,٨٤ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ٢ ‫ﻫـ‬ = - ٠,١٢ + ٠,٦٦ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ ) - ١,١٤ ) ( ٢٨,٢٨ **( ٠,٩٣٢٤ **٧٩٩,٦٦ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ٢ ‫ﻫـ‬ = - ٠,٠٩ + ٠,٦٦ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ - ٠,٠٥ ‫ﺩ‬ ١ ) - ٠,٤٨ ) ( ٢٧,١٨ ) ** ( - ٠,٢٣ ( ٠,٩٣٢٤ **٣٩٣,٣٣ **٦٢,٧٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ^ ٢ ‫ﻫـ‬ = - ٠,٠٩ + ٠,٦٦ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬ - ٠,٠٥ ‫ﺩ‬ ٢ ) - ٠,٤٨ ) ( ٢٧,٤٤ ( ** ) - ٠,٢٥ ( ٠,

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺠﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ٢٠١٦ - ٢٠١٧ .

  

	‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻤﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻤﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻼﺤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺭﻏﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻥ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ( ، ‫ﻭﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٥٥ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﻡ‬ ١٧ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺘﺎﻤﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺠﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺏ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺘﺎﻤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) b12 ( ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﻨﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻟﺴﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻤﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻭﺩﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻀﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻨﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻬﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻟﻴﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ) ‫ﺏ‬ ( ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١٠٣٦ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ١٩٩,٤٥٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ ٣٩,٠٣ % ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ٥١١,٠٧١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٦ / ٢٠١٧ . ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺨﻴﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺯﻴﺯﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻴﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺤﺭﻴﺕ‬ . ‫ﺴﺠﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻲ‬ ٢ ‫ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﻤﻌﻴﺎﺕ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ( ‫ﻭﺫﻟ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻙ‬ ٣٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ٩٠ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ،‬ ) ١ . ( ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠١٦ / ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺘﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻐل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ١٦,٦٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٣٣,٩١ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ١٧,٢٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٥ ) ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ .( ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺯﺍﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺒﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ( ‫ﻤﻤ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬ 97326 30.30% 81184 42.70% 178510 34.90% ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ 320924 100.00% 190147 100.00% 511071 100.00% ) ١ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺠﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺜﺒﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻔﻌﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻘﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻘﻲ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﺨﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺸﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻋﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺩﺭﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ . ‫ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻴﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺼﻤﻤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺍﺭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻨﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻴﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻠﻙ‬ . ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻼ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﻠﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ) ‫ﺫﻜﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻨﺜﻲ‬ ( ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺤﻭﺜﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ) ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ -‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺘﺘﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻪ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ : ١ -‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻜﺜﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺩﻗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺴﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻀﺎﻓﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻲ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ) ‫ﺫﻜﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻨﺜﻲ‬ ( ، ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ) ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ -‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬ :

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١٠٣٧ ‫ﺹ‬ = ‫ﺃ‬ + ‫ﺏ‬ ١ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ + - ‫ﺏ‬ ٢ ‫ﺱ‬ ٢ +.....+ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : ‫ﺹ‬

  

	. .	١ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ٢ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ٣ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ : : : ٤ ‫ﻫــ‬ : ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ . . ٥ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ . ٦ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ . ٧ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ . ٨ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ١ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻥ‬ . ‫ﺱ‬ ٢ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ . ‫ﺱ‬ ٣ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ . ‫ﺱ‬ ٤ ‫ﻫـ‬ : ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ . ‫ﺱ‬ ٥ ‫ﻫـ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١٠٣٨

  

	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ : ( ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ) ‫ﺏ‬ ( ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ٢٠١٦ / ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ١ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ 3.106 3.106 ‫ﺹ‬ ١ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ 2.196 1.918 % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ) ١ ( % 70.70% 61.75% ‫ﺹ‬ ٢ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ 6.409 5.759 ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ 2.92 3 ‫ﺹ‬ ٣ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺍﺴﺭﺓ‬ 1.26 1.7 % ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ) ٢ ( % 19.65% 29.51% ‫ﺱ‬ ٤ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ 5.433 5.433 ‫ﺹ‬ ٤ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﻜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ 5.15 4.06 % ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ) ٣ ( % 80.35% 70.49% ‫ﺱ‬ ٢ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ 55.65 55.65 ‫ﺱ‬ ٣ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ 1.683 1.683 ‫ﺱ‬ ٥ ‫ﻫــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ 0.516 0.413 ‫ﺱ‬ ٦ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺱ‬ 2.2 2.2 ) ١ ( % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ) = ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ( x ١٠٠ ) ٢ ( % ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺠﻡ‬ ) = ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ / ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ( x ١٠٠ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ = ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ / ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ( x ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ٢٠١٦ / ٢٠١٧ .
	٠٦ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ٧٠,٤٩ % ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺍﺠﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ . ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻻﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ : ١ -‫ﺍﻻﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺝ‬ ٧,٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ٢,٦٤ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ١٥,٠١ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٤,٦ % ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ٧,٥١ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٧,٠٣ % ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ‬ ٥١,٧ . % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ١٥٤,٥ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻁﻔﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ٠,٥٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ -٢٠١٥ .( ٢ -‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﺎ‬ ٥,٠٥ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ١,٦٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ١١,٨٢ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢,٥٦ % ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ٦,٧٨ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٣,٥١ % ‫ﺍﻻﻜ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ٤٣,٦٦ . % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ٧٩,٦٩ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ٣,٠٩ % ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ -٢٠١٥ .( ٣ -‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ -٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ١٢,٥٧٠ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٢٦,٨٣٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ١٤,٢٦ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ٤٦,٨ % ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ٢٣٤,١٩ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ ، ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻜﺠﻡ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻁﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ .

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١٠٣٩

  

	‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ ٣ ( 6844 7177 8140 8276 7379 7977 8522 7169 8371 5864 6307 6187 9608 7524.69 2.64% ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ١ ( = ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﻲ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ % ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ 10958 4114 62.46 152.2 5682 10330 11748 4571 61.09 160.1 5839 9105 13310 5170 61.16 177.9 4905 12818 14667 6391 56.43 191.9 4392 10656 13790 6411 53.51 177 4386 11399 14546 6569 54.84 182.7 4504 12519 11450 2928 74.43 140.9 4746 9317 17685 10516 40.54 160.1 4483 12509 17153 8782 48.80 152.1 4204 14073 15782 9918 37.16 122.5 5147 10155 16678 10371 37.82 126.5 5073 14257 17825 11638 34.71 123.6 5175 12226 19563 9955 49.11 141.1 7058 14340 15011.92 7487.23 51.7 154.51 5045.69 11823.38 4.56% 7.03% -0.58% 1.68% 2.56% ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ -‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ) = ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ / ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ( x ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼ‬ ‫ﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﻀﻲ،‬ ‫ﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ 4648 3266 7913 6264 7013 8015 4571 8026 9869 5008 9184 7051 7282 6777.69 3.51% ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ -٢٠١٥ .( ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ 55.00 96.5 64.13 83.4 38.27 115.1 41.22 93.8 38.48 98.3 35.98 105.2 50.94 77.4 35.84 67.7 29.87 74.5 50.68 47.3 35.58 63.3 42.33 56 49.22 57.5 43.66 79.69 -3.90% ، ٢٠٠٣ -٢٠١٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ١ -‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٠,٥٧ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﻜﻤ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ٠,٨١٦ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٨١,٦ % ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ١٨,٤ (% ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ٢٥٦,٦٢ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺜﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺫﻜﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻨﺜﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ) ‫ﻟﻼﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺭ‬ -‫ﻟﻠﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ( ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ) ٧٤,٣١ ‫ﻴﺅ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ) ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺭ‬ ١ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ) ٧٤,٨٤ ( ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ . ‫ﺜﺭ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ . ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ -‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ ) ‫ﺏ‬ ( ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١٠٤٠ ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫،ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٠,٦٦ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ٠,٠١ . ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ٠,٩٣٢ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٩٣,٢ % ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ٦,٨ (% ‫ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ‬ ٧٩٩,٦٦ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ٠,٠١ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺫﻜﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻨﺜﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺭ‬ ١ ‫ﻟﻠﺫﻜﺭ‬ ( ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ) ٦٢,٧٢ ( ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ل‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺭ‬ ١ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ) ٦٢,٧٢ ( ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ : ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ٢٠١٦ / ٢٠١٧ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ١ ‫ﻫـ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﻭﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ٢٠١٦ / ٢٠١٧ . ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١٠٤١ ٣-

  ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﻴ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ 


	٢٠١٨	(	‫ﺏ‬	‫ﻴﻭﻨﻴﻭ‬ )	-	‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬	-	‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬	‫ﺩ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬
	٩٣٢٥ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ **٣٩٣,٤١ . ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ : . ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ١ : ٢ : ‫ﻫـ‬ ١ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ١ : . ‫ﺩ‬ ٢ : ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ . (*) ، : (**) ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ٠,٠٥ ، ٠,٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : : ١ -‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻼ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ **٦٢,٧٢ ‫ﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻼ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ . ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,٤٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ٠,١٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٠,٠٠٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺜﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ . ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ٠,٠١ . ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ٠,٩٩٣٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﺭ‬ ٩٩,٣٢ % ‫ﺍﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺎﻗﻲ‬ ) ٠,٦٨ (% ‫ﺍﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ‬ ٢٧٣٢,٦٥ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ٠,٠١ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺫﻜﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻨﺜﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺼﻔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ١ ‫ﻟﻠﺫﻜﺭ‬ ( ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ) ١٨,٧٣ ( ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ) ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺭ‬ ١ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ١٨,٧٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻼ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻼ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ . ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٢,٤٣ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫،ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٠,١٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٠,٠٠١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ .

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١٠٤٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬

  ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺒﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﻋﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻱ‬ ‫ﺸﻠﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ 


	٠,٠١ ٠,٩٧٩١ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ . ‫ﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ٩٧,٩١ % ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺼﻭل‬ ) ٢,٠٩ (% ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﺭ‬ ٨٧٥,٠٦ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ٠,٠١ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺫﻜﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻨﺜﻲ‬ ( ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻱ‬ ) ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺭ‬ ١ ‫ﻟﻠﺫﻜﺭ‬ ( ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ) ١٨,٢٨ ( ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ، ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺭ‬ ١ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ( ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ١٨,٧٩ ( ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٥ : ( ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠١٦ / ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ٣ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٢٥ + ٢,٤٧ ‫ﺹ‬ ١ + ٠,٠٠٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ٢ + ٠,١٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ٣ ) ٠,٦٢ ) ( ٨٤,٧٩ ) ** ( ٠,٩٢ ) ( ١,٧ ٠,٩٩٣٢ **٢٧٣٢,٦٥ ---( ‫ﺹ‬ ٣ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٣٣ + ٢,٤٨ ‫ﺹ‬ ١ + ٠,٠٠٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ٢ + ٠,١٩ ‫ﺱ‬ ٣ -٠,١ ‫ﺩ‬ ١ ) ٠,٧٧ ) ( ٨١,٣٥ ) **( ٠,٨٨ ) ( ١,٦٧ ) ( -٠,٥٩ ٠,٩٩٣٣ **٢٠٢٥,٧١ **١٨,٧٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ٣ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٢٣ + ٢,٤٧ ‫ﺹ‬ ١ + ٠,٠١ ‫ﺱ‬ ٢ + ٠,١٨ ‫ﺱ‬ ٣ + ٠,١١ ‫ﺩ‬ ٢ ) ٠,٥٧ ) ( ٨٣,٣٥ ) ** ( ٠,٨١ ) ( ١,٥٨ ) ( ٠,٦٨ ٠,٩٩٣٣ **٢٠٢٩,٩٣ **١٨,٧٣ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ٤ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٠,٢ + ٢,٤٣ ‫ﺹ‬ ٢ + ٠,٠١ ‫ﺱ‬ ٢ + ٠,١٧ ‫ﺱ‬ ٣ ) ٠,٢٦ ) ( ٤٨,٥٥ ( ** ) ٠,٧٢ ) ( ٠,٨ ٠,٩٧٩١ **٨٧٥,٠٦ ----( ‫ﺹ‬ ٤ ‫ﻫـ‬

Summary

Grains crops of bread ( Wheat , maize )were considered to be important economically, agriculturally and in food , where it was considered the main component of the bread loaf of both subsidized and peasant . Domestic production is unable to meet consumer needs , which means that there is a food gap being managed by imports from abroad , which will hold the public treasury in the state more financial burdens . The problem lies in the presence of volatility and instability in economic variables which were represented in: Total area, production , used quantities and the marketing surplus quantities .The research aims to identify the factors and variables that affect the cultivated area and thus the total production , used quantities and the resulting marketing surplus quantities of bread crops . so it is important to activate positive factors and variables ,also discouraged and limited the negative ones and thus improve the efficiency of the economic performance of production and marketing of bread crops . Data sources were limited in two main sources of data : Secondary data published and unpublished, and second preliminary data for field study . The study also used descriptive and quantitative analysis and presentation of the results was the most important as the follow: 
1-It was found that the average of gross domestic production was amounted to be 12.570 million tons while the average of national consumption was amounted to be 26.835 million tons , which resulted in a food gap was about 14.26 million tons . The average of self-sufficiency rate reached to 46.8% .Finally , the average of gross product per capita was about 234. 19 kg per year . 2-It was showed that most important of those factors affecting on cultivated area were : average of the agricultural holding size in feddan ( Positive relationship with both crops under study ) , it was showed also that there was a statistically significant effect for each of gender composition and the main work of the researcher, impact on the cultivated area of both crops: wheat and maize. 3-By comparing the factors affecting the production of bread cereal crops ( Wheat and maize ) Showing that those factors had been narrowed in the average of cultivated area in feddan , the average of number of family members working in agriculture and the average of farmer age in years and all of these factors affected positively on the production. Finally, it was found that there was a statistically significant effect for each of gender composition and the main work of the researcher, impact on the production of both crops: wheat and maize. 4-It was found that the factors affecting on the used quantities of bread grain crops ( Wheat and maize ) were limited in the average of crop production in ton and the average number of family members on both wheat and maize ( Positive relationship with both crops under study ) , Add to them the number of animal units ( positive relationship ) It was also found that there was a significant statistical effect for both gender composition and the main work of the researcher in the presence of the effect on the used quantities for the crops of bread grains under studied. 5-By comparing the factors affecting the marketing surplus quantities of bread grains crops ( Wheat and maize ) It was found that these factors were limited in the average of production in ton (relationship with both crops under study ) and the amount of losses of wheat and maize, ( negative relationship) It was also found that there was a significant statistical effect for both gender composition and the main work of the researcher, in the presence of the effect on marketing surplus quantities of the studied crops.
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺯ‬ ‫ﺤﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺤﺴﺎﻨﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻁﺎﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻗﺎﺯﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬