‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﻴﻭﺴﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻟﺢ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬


( ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣١٠,١٨ ٤٩,٥٠ ١٥٣٦٩,٦ ١٣١,٦٨ ٢٠,١٠ ٢٦٤٩,٨ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ - ٢٠٠٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ٪ ( ٢ ٪ ٠ ٪ ٢ ٪ ٨ ٪ ٢ ٪ ١٠ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٢٤,٨٩ ٥٠,٥٠ ١٦٤١٨,٧ ١٧٠,٣١ ٢٠,٨٥ ٣٥٤٨,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ - ٢٠٠٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ٪ ( ٠ ٪ ١ ٪ ١ ٪ ١٤ ٪ ١ ٪ ١٥ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٢١,٣٩ ٤٨,٨١ ١٥٧٣٨,٢ ٣١٩,٤٤ ٢٠,٤٦ ٦٥٣٩,٢٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٨ - ٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ٪ ( ٠ ٪ - ١ ٪ - ١ ٪ ١٠ ٪ ٢ ٪ ١٢ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٢٨,٢٧ ٤٧,٩٤ ١٥٧٣٣,٦ ٥١٧,٣٧ ٢١,٢١ ١١٠١٠,٩ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ) ٢٠١٣ - ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ٪ ( ٠ ٪ - ١ ٪ - ١ ٪ ٣ ٪ - ١ ٪ ٢ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٢١,١٢ ٤٩,١٦ ١٥٨٠٧,١ ٢٤٩,٧٩ ٢٠,٦٤ ٥١٦١,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ - ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ٪ ( ١ ٪ ٠ ٪ ٠ ٪ ٨ ٪ ١ ٪ ٩ ٪ ‫ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ 1 - ] F\ S)

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬

١٦٣٩,٤ ) ٤ ( ١٠٢٥,٧ ٣ ١٠١٤,٥ ) ١ ( ٩٦٧,٣ ٠ ١١٢٤,٦ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٢٣٦,٦ ١ ١٢٨٠,٨ ٦ ٢٠٢٥,١ ) ٥ ( ١٥٩٩,٨ ) ١ ( ١٥٢٠,٨ ٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٣٩٤,٣ - ) ٢٥٥,١ ( - ) ١٠١٠,٦ ( - ) ٦٣٢,٥ ( - ) ٣٩٦,٢ ( - ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٪ ١٣٣,٣ - ٨٠,١ - ٥٠,١ - ٦٣,٣٧ - ٧٥,٤٠ - ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ١٩,٢٣ ) ١ ( ١٨,١٢ ٥ ٢٥,٧٤ ) ٧ ( ١٦,٩٩ ) ٣ ( ٢٠,٠٢ ٠ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٥٩,٦ ) ١ ( ٣١٨,٦ ٢ ١١٧٦,٨ ) ٢ ( ٩٩٩,١ ٦ ٥٧٤,٢٠ ٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٣٣٣,٦ ١١ ٤٥٥,٩ ١٥ ٧٢٢,٣ ١٥ ١٢٥٠ ٥ ٦٣٥,٠٨ ٩ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٤٦٠,٨ ٥ ٤٨١,٧ ٨ ١٠٢٧,٥ ٢٦ ١٢٧٣,٢٥ ) ١ ( ٧٤٨,٠٣ ٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ١٢٧,٥ ( - ) ٢٥,٨ ( ) ٣٠٥,٢ ( - ) ٢٣,٢٥ ( - ) ١١٢,٩٥ ( - ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٪ ٧٢,٤١ - ٩٤,٦٤ - ٧٥,١٦ - ٩٨,٧٨ - ٨٤,٣٦ - ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ٧,١٧ ٠ ٦,٨١ ٦ ٩,٥٥ ١٤,٢٤ ) ٣ ( ٩,١٨ ٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٧٠,٧ ) ٣ ( ٥٢,١ ١٣ ٣٤,٨ ٢٥ ١٤٠,٤ ٤٢ ٦٤,٧١ ٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٩٨٢,٨ ١ ١٤٨٨,١ ٩ ١٨٠٧,٦ ٥ ٢١٩٩ ١ ١٨٥٧,٣ ٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٦٩٩,٦ ٣ ١٧٨٥,٨ ٦ ٢٨١٠,٣ ٠ ٢٩٠٠,١ ) ١ ( ٢٢٦٠,٨ ٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٢٨٣,٢ ( - ) ٢٩٧,٧ ( - ) ١٠٠٢,٧ ( - ) ٧٠١,١ ( - ) ٤٠٣,٥ ( - ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٪ ١١٦,٧ - ٨٣,٣٣ - ٦٤,٣٢ - ٧٨,١٣ - ٨٢,٩٨ - ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ٢٦,٤٤ ٠ ٢٥,٥١ ٥ ٣٥,٧٥ ) ٢ ( ٣١,٨٥ ) ٣ ( ٢٩,٧٤ ١ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ + ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٣٥٨,٠١ ) ٣ ( ٤٠٠ ٥ ١٢٣٦,٢ ٠ ١١٦٢,٧ ١٠ ٦٨٤,٥ ٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢١٢٨,٥ ١ ١٧١٠,٨ ٧ ٢٠٨٣,١ ٤ ٢٥٠١,٣ ٢ ٢٠٨٩,٥ ١ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٨٥٦,٢ ٣ ١٩٨٨,٤ ٨ ٣٠٨٣,٩ ٠ ٣١٦٦,٤ ) ١ ( ٢٤٥٠,٢ ٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٨٢,٣ - ) ٢٧٧,٦ ( - ) ١٠٠٠,٨ ( - ) ٦٦٥,١ ( - ) ٣٦٠,٧ ( - ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٪ ١١٥,٢١ - ٨٦,٠٤ - ٦٧,٥٥ - ٧٨,٩٩ - ٨٥,٢٨ - ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻜﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ٢٨,٨٨ ٠ ٢٨,١٥ ٦ ٣٩,٢٣ ) ١ ( ٣٥,٤٣ ) ٣ ( ٣٢,٨٠ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٣٦٠,٩ ) ٣ ( ٣٨٩,٤ ٤ ١٢٥١,٨ ٠ ١١٦٨,٢٥ ٩ ٦٧٣,٣ ٦ ) ١ ( ‫ﻴﺸﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ٪ ٧٦,٦٦ ١٥,٦٠ ٩٢,٢٦ ٧,٧٤ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٪ ٦٦,٦٢ ٢٤,٨٤ ٩١,٤٦ ٨,٥٤ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ - ٢٠٠٢ ( ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻁ‬ ٪ ٦٦,٥٨ ٢٤,٨٣ ٩١,٤١ ٨,٥٩ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ٪ ٥٩,٩٥ ٢٦,٦٥ ٨٦,٦٠ ١٣,٤٠ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٪ ٦٤,٤١ ٢٦,٦٥ ٩١,٠٦ ٨,٩٤ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ - ٢٠٠٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٪ ٦٤,٣٦ ٢٤,٢٧ ٨٨,٦٣ ١١,٣٧ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ٪ ٥٦,١٢ ٣٤,٦٧ ٩٠,٧٩ ٩,٢١ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٪ ٦٥,٦٧ ٣٣,٣٢ ٩٨,٩٩ ١,٠١ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٨ - ٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٪ ٦٥,٦١ ٢٤,٣٤ ٨٩,٩٥ ١٠,٠٥ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ٪ ٣٨,٦٧ ٤٩,٩٧ ٨٨,٦٤ ١١,٣٦ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٪ ٥٠,٥٢ ٤٠,١٥ ٩٠,٦٧ ٩,٣٣ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ) ٢٠١٣ - ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٪ ٤٧,٩٥ ٤٠,١٩ ٨٨,١٤ ١١,٨٦ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ٪ ٥٣,٨٢ ٣٠,٣٩ ٨٤,٢١ ١٥,٧٩ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٪ ٦٢,٠٧ ٣٠,٥٣ ٩٢,٦٠ ٧,٤٠ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ - ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٪ ٦١,٠٤ ٢٨,١٦ ٨٩,٢٠ ١٠,٨٠ ١٠٠ ( 

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦٣

  

	‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﻠﺹ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ : ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺭ‬ . ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻜﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺒﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ . ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻼل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٧ ( . ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ . ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ARIMA . ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ : ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺜﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ . ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻷﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ . ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻲ‬ . ‫ﻭﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻌﻴﺎﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ . ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ : ‫ﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺩ‬ . ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻨﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻅﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﻭﻋﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ . ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻠﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺘﺠﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ٨٩ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠١٣ -٢٠١٧ ( ) ٧ ( . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ٧٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‬ ) ٨ ( . ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ . ‫ﺘﻠﺠﺄ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ . ‫ﻻﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺴﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻜﻼﻫﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺎﻓﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ‬ . ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻴل‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻫﻴﺩﺭﺍﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺒﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠٢٠ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦٢ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﺒﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺯﺍﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻤل‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ . ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﺼﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ‬ : ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ١٩٩٧ / ١٩٩٨ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭﻻ‬ ٢٠١٧ / ٢٠١٨ . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ) ٢٠١٧ -٢٠٢٢ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ) ٢٠٢٢ -٢٠٢٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻅل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺼﺎﻨﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺠﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺜﺒﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﻌﻴل‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ . ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﺨﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻼ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺯﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ . ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ . ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻡ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﻭﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻵﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠٠٢ .( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ -٣٠٠٧ .( ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٨ -٢٠١٢ .( ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠١٣ -٢٠١٧ .( ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻤﺱ‬ ( ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻹ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺤﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ . ‫ﻭﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻬﺎ‬ : ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬ : ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﻤﺎ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ .( ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ : ) ١ ( ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ : ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣٢١,١٢ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻠ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻎ‬ ٣٢٨,٢٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٠ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣١٠,١٨ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢ ٪ . ٥,٨٠ ٪ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ . ‫ﺒﺎﻟ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻺ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٤٩,١٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٠ ٪ ‫ﻤﺘﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٥٠,٥٠ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ١ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ٤٧,٩٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ١ ٪ . ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ٣,١٥ ٪ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٥,٨١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﺘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ . ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٦,٤٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ١ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٥,٣٧ ‫ﻤﻠ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢ ٪ . ٢,٨٥ ٪ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ . ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻔﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ : ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٤٩,٧٩ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ . ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٨ ٪ . ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ٥١٧,٢٧ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٣١,٦٨ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢ ٪ . ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٥,٨٠ ٪ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ . ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٠,٦٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ . ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢١,٢١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ -١ ٪ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٠,١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢ ٪ . ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٥,٤٧ ٪ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ . ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٥,١٦١ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﺘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٩ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١١,٠١ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢,٦٥ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٠ ٪ . ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣١٠ ٪ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ . ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ -. ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ . ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ -. ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ( . ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠٢٠

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦٤

  

	‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ) ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ -‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬	‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬	) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ١ :(	‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦١ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ :( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬

  

	١٩٩٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ) -٢٠١٧ ( ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٪ ( ) ٢ (	‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٨ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺔ‬ ) ٢٠١٣ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٪ ( ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٪ ( ) ٢ (	‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ -٢٠٠٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٪ ( ) ٢ (	‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠٠٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ) ٪ ( ) ٢ (	‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬
	1\y ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ [( P= ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، P ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻯ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ . . ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ F ‫ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺼﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ s ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ y ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ .		
	‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ) ١٩٩٨ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل‬ : -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺴﻤﺔ‬ . ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ . ) ١ ( ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ( ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ . ‫ﺨﻼ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ل‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ :  ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ : ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ١١٢٤,٦ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٤ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ١٥٢٠,٨ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢ ٪ . ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ٣٩٦,٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﻤﻌ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺩل‬ ٧٥,٤ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٠,٠٢ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ) ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ٠ ٪ .( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٥٧٤,٢٠ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ .  ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ : ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ٦٣٥,٠٨ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٩ ٪ . ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٧٤٨,٠٣ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٤ ٪ . ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ١١٢,٩٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ٨٤,٤ ٪ . ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ٩,١٦ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ٢ ٪ . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٦٤,٧١ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢ ٪ .		

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : 
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ .

  
	‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ 1 -] F\ S) 1\y . ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻠﻭﻜﻭﺯ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻜﺘﻭﺯ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤل‬ ‫ﻋﺴل‬ ) ١ ( [( P= ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، P ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ F ‫ﺍﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ . ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺴل‬ .( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ s ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ y ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠٢٠ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻤ‬ ‫ﻹ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٢٦٠,٨ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٨٥٧,٣ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٨٦٢ ٣ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٤٠٣,٥ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢ ٪ . ‫ﻜ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٨٢,٩٨ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ٢٩,٧٤ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ١ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٦٨٤,٥ ‫ﺯﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺩﺓ‬ ٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧  ‫ﻹ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ : ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻠﻭﻜﻭﺯ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﻜﺘﻭﺯ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤل‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺴل‬ . ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺴل‬ ( ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٠٨٩,٥ ‫ﺴ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻭﻱ‬ ١ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٤٥٠,٢ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٣ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٣٦٠,٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٨٥,٢٨ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ٣٢,٨ ‫ﻜﺠﻡ‬ / ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ٢ ٪ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ٦٧٣,٣ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٦ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﺤل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠٨ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ١٠١٠,٨ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ) ٢٠١٣ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ٦٣٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ) ٢٠٠٣ -٢٠٠٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻲ‬ ٢٥٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠٠٢ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٨٢,٣ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺒﻁ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺒﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻻﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬  ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ : ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ٥٣,٨٢ ٪ . ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ٣٠,٣٩ ٪ . ٨٤,٢١ ٪ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ) ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ( ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ١٥,٧٩ ٪ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ٢٠٨٩,٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ : ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ٦٢,٠٧ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣٠,٥٣ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٩٢,٦٠ ٪ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٧,٤٠ ٪ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٤٥٠,٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺜﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ . ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ( . ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ : . ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻔﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺜﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻭﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺼل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ . ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ : .( ٪ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦٣ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٣ :( ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ .( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺜﻨﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ .

  
	*) ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬ : ‫ﺘﺸﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻠﻭﻜﻭﺯ‬ . ‫ﻓﺭﻜﺘﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻱ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺤل‬ ‫ﻋﺴل‬ . ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻌﺴل‬ ( ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﺤل‬ ) ARIMA ( ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ : ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ) ARIMA ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ) Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( ‫ﺒـ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺭﻤﺯ‬ ) q.d.p ( ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ) : q ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘ‬ ‫ﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻁ‬ ) . d ( ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ) . p ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ . ARIMA (p.d.q) . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬ ARIMA (2.1.1) ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ . ‫ﺴﻨ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺄﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﺤل‬ : ١ -‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ Auto Regressive Process (AR) ٢ -‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ Moving Average (MA) ٣ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ARMA ٤ -‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ARIMA (p.d.q) ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻤﺜل‬ ) ARIMA ( ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻁﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ) ٦ ( Integration . ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺨﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ (AR) . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ (MA) . ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ) ARIMA ( ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺤﺘﻭﻱ‬ Auto Regressive ) AR "P" ( ‫ﻭﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ) (MA "q" ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺭﻭﻕ‬ ) Difference "d" ( ‫ﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ARIMA) p.d .( ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠٢٠ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦٤ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺈﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ARIMA ‫ﻤﺭﺍﺤل‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻴﺭ‬ ) 1.-1 ( ‫ﺍﻷﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺄﺨﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ARIMA ) 1.1.0 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ .( ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺨﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﺤﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀﻠﻬﺎ‬ . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ١١٢٤,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ١٥٢٠,٨ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ٣٩٦,٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ٧٥,٤ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٪ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ :( ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦٥ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٥ :( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻘﺼﺏ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ) ٪ ( ٢٠١٨ ١٤٠٣,٩٠ ١٤٠٣,٩٠ ١٣٣٥,٦٩ ٦٢,٠٦ ٢٠١٩ ١٤٢٠,٥٦ ١٤٢٠,٥٦ ١٦٣٦,٥٣ ٦٢,٩٧ ٢٠٢٠ ١٤٧٠,١٤ ١٤٧٠,١٤ ١٧٧٧,٥٣ ٥٥,٨٦ ٢٠٢١ ١٥١٩,٧١ ١٥١٩,٧١ ١٨٥٧,٢٨ ٦١,٣٩ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ٢٠٢٢ ١٥٦٩,٢٩ ١٥٦٩,٢٩ ١٩٠٥,٥٩ ٥٧,٠٥ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٠٩٢,٩٧ ١٨٢٧,٧٨ ٧٣٤,٨١ ٥٩,٨٠ ٢٠٢٣ ١٦١٨,٨٧ ١٦١٨,٨٧ ١٩٣٦,٠٩ ٥٣,٧٢ ٢٠٢٤ ١٦٦٨,٤٥ ١٦٦٨,٤٥ ١٩٥٥,٩٤ ٥٤,٤١ ٢٠٢٥ ١٧١٨,٠٣ ١٧١٨,٠٣ ١٩٦٩,١٧ ٥٠,٣٦ ٢٠٢٦ ١٧٦٧,٦١ ١٧٦٧,٦١ ١٩٧٨,١٦ ٤٨,٤١ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠٢٧ ١٨١٧,١٨ ١٨١٧,١٨ ١٩٨٤,٣٧ ٤٧,١٢ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٢١٣,٥٦ ٢٣٩٢,٤٦ ١١٧٤,٢٨ ٥٠,٧٢ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ Minitab ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠٢٠ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ٨٦٦ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٧ :( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ) ٪ ( ٢٠١٨ ١٤٠٣,٩٠ ١٣٧٠,٩٨ ٣٢,٩٢ ١٠٢,٤٠ ٢٠١٩ ١٤٦٢,٣٩ ١٤٢٠,٥٦ ٤١,٨٣ ١٠٢,٩٤ ٢٠٢٠ ١٥٢٠,٨٩ ١٤٧٠,١٤ ٥٠,٧٥ ١٠٣,٤٥ ٢٠٢١ ١٥٧٩,٣٨ ١٥١٩,٧١ ٦٠,٠٩ ١٠٣,٩٣ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ٢٠٢٢ ١٦٣٧,٨٨ ١٥٦٩,٢٩ ٦٨,٥٩ ١٠٤,٣٧ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٥١٨,٦٣ ١٤٦٨,٤٦ ٥٠,١٧ ١٠٣,٤٢ ٢٠٢٣ ١٦٩٦,٣٧ ١٦١٨,٨٧ ٧٧,٥٠ ١٠٤,٨١ ٢٠٢٤ ١٧٥٤,٨٦ ١٦٦٨,٤٥ ٨٦,٤١ ١٠٥,١٨ ٢٠٢٥ ١٨١٣,٣٦ ١٧١٨,٠٣ ٩٥,٤١ ١٠٥,٥٥ ٢٠٢٦ ١٨٧١,٨٥ ١٧٦٧,٦١ ١٠٤,٢٤ ١٠٥,٩٠ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠٢٧ ١٩٣٠,٣٥ ١٨١٧,١٧ ١١٣,١٧ ١٠٦,٢٣ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٨١١,٤٧ ١٧١٦,٦٠ ٩٤,٤٩ ١٠٥,٥٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ Minitab ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١١٢٤,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٥٢٠,٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٣٩٦,٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٪ ٧٥,٤٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ٢ .( ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٧ ( ‫ﻭﺫﻙ‬ ‫ﺍل‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ARIMA ) 1.0.1 .( ‫ﻭﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ARIMA 2.2.0) ( ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ . (2) Y 2 = 12.23 -1.038 AR 1 -0.664 MA 1 (0.15) (-4.40) ** (-2.83) ** Y 1 = 341.36 +0.725 AR 1 -0.605 MA 1 (1) . (5.32) ** (3.86) ** (-3.15) ** ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : Y 1 . Y 2 = ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ .( AR 1 = ‫ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ . MA 1 = ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ . ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ARIMA ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٢ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٠٩٢,٩٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ١٨٢٧,٧٨ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ٧٣٤,٨١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٥٩,٨٠ ٪ . ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ) ٢٠٢٣ -٢٠٢٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٢١٣,٥٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٣٩٢,٤٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١١٧٤,٢٨ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ٥٠,٧٢ ٪ . ‫ﻤﺤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻁﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺭﻴﻴﻥ‬ . ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺈﻨﺘ‬ ‫ﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٦ ( ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ٦٣٥,٠٨ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٧٤٨,٠٣ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ١١٢,٩٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ٨٤,٣٦ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٦ :( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻑ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٦٣٥,٠٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ٧٤٨,٠٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ١١٢,٩٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٪ ٨٤,٣٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ٢ .( ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٧ ( ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ARIMA ) 0.1.1 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٧ ( Y 2 = 49.58 -0.561 AR 1 (2) (1.21) (-2.6) * Y 1 = 58.49 +0.456 AR 1 ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ) ٢٠٢٣ -٢٠٢٧ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٨١١,٤٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ١٧١٦,٦٠ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ٩٤,٤٩ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٠٥,٥٣ ٪ . ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺈﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٨ ( ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ١٨٥٧,٣ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٢٦٠,٨ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٤٠٣,٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ٨٢,٩٨ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٨ :( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ) ١٩٩٨ -٢٠١٧ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٨٥٧,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٢٦٠,٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ٤٠٣,٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ٪ ٨٢,٩٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ٢ .( (1) (4.00) ** (2.10) * ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : Y 1 . Y 2 = ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ .( AR 1 = ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ . ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ARIMA ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٩ ( ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ) ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ( ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ARIMA ) 1.0.0 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٧ ( ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٢ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٥١٨,٦٣ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٤٦٨,٤٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ٥٠,١٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ١٠٣,٤٢ ٪ . Y 2 = 68.37 + 0.475 AR 1 (2) (1.91) * (2.15) * (1) Y 1 = 524.44 + 0.729 AR 1 (10.18) ** (4.31) ** ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : Y 1 . Y 2 = ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ .( AR 1 = ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ . ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ARIMA ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼ‬ ‫ﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺠﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ) ٢٠١٨ -٢٠٢٢ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٦١١,٠٨ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : 
Summary

Sugar is considered one of the most important strategic commodities in Egypt because it is considered one of the essential food commodities for the Egyptian consumer. and it is also included in many food industries. Therefore. sugar production and its manufacture are of interest to Egyptian economic policy makers due to the added value it creates and the labor and investments it absorbs. Among the most important sources of sugar in Egypt are the cane and sugar beet crops. Despite the importance of sugar. local production does not meet the consumption needs of it. and thus the sugar gap appears. which the state resorts to importing from abroad to fill that gap. 
The study aimed to identify the current and future situation and the nutritional gap of sugar in Egypt. by studying the production and consumption of sugar. one of its most important sources. namely the sugar cane and sugar beet crops. 
In presenting and analyzing the data. the study relied on the quantitative and descriptive methods represented in some measures of dispersion and central tendency such as averages and others. And percentages and the argumentative presentation of proportional comparisons. The estimation of the annual growth rate. in addition to the prediction calculation using ARIMA for the variables under study. The study also relied on secondary data published by official authorities such as the Central Agency for the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation. 
The data on the variables related to the study were used during the period (1998-2017) and were divided into four periods according to the five-year development plans of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation as follows: the first period (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002). the second period . the third period (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012). fourth period (2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017). The geometric average and growth rate were also calculated for each period (five years). as well as for the total period studied. And that for all the variables of the study separately. 
The study reached several results. the most important of which are: 1-By studying the production of sugar cane crop in Egypt during the period (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017). it was found that the average cultivated area of sugarcane was about 321.12 thousand feddans. with an annual growth rate of about 1%. The total production of the cane crop was about 15.81 million tons. By studying beet production in Egypt during the studied period. it was found that the cultivated area of sugar beet amounted to about 249.79 thousand feddans. with an annual growth rate of about 8%. The total production of the cane crop was about 15.81 million tons. The period was also characterized by relative stability in the production of cane and beet crops. 
2-By studying the current situation of the sugar gap during the same period. it was found that there was a sugar gap during the period (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017). whether from cane sugar or beet sugar. but that the gap of beet sugar decreases significantly compared to its equivalent in cane sugar. 
3-By calculating the forecast of the future status of the sugar gap during the period (2018-2027). it was found that the gap of cane sugar increases during the study period. but that the gap of beet sugar disappears and is replaced by a surplus during the forecast years. However. it is expected that there will be a sugar gap from both cane sugar and beet sugar. because the local production of them together does not meet the consumption needs in Egypt during the projection period. 
Key words: food gap. cane sugar. sugar beet. forecast.
‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﻴﻭﺴﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻟﺢ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬