‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬

‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ - ٢٠١١ . ( ‫ﺤ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺒﻭﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﺼﻌﻭﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ١.٧٢ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴـﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١٩٩٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ، ٩.٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻤـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭﻯ‬ ٦.٨ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٦.٠٥ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ . ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬

) ٦ ( : ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ - ٢٠١١ ( ، ) ١٩٩٠ - ٢٠٠٠ ( ، ) ٢٠٠١ - ٢٠١١ ( ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴــــﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ R 2 F 1 ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔـﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻯ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ - ٢٠١١ ( ، Ŷ= 2.2 + 29.7 X -.1.1X 2 0. ٧٨ ٣٤ (7.٥)** (-٦.٤)** 2 ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔـﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻰ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ - ٢٠١١ ( Ŷ= 1+ 28.3 X -1.

‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬

  ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻁـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﺂﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺠـﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺜـل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ 


	‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺩﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﺎﺀ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺤﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺯﺓ‬ -‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺠﺯﺀﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ‬ . ‫ﻟﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻷﻨ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻭﺍﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻼﺀﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﻴﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼل‬ . ‫ﺍﻨ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻜﺎﺌﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ . ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺼـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻭﻴل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻁﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺠﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ‬ . ‫ﺨ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼـﺭ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺘـﺯﺍل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﺄﺤـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻤﺴـﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ١٧ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٩٠ / ١٩٩١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٤.٥ % ‫ﻭﻋﺠـﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻌل‬ ، ‫ﺍﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٠ / ٢٠١١ ) ١ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ١٣١٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻭﻴل‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ . ‫ﻓـﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻟـﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﺤﺎﺤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼـﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( : ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ : ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺸـﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ٣ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٢٠١٠ / ٢٠١١ ‫ﺒﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ٢٣ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻐﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺴﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ، ‫ﺇﺸﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻅل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻗـﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺜـﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻗـﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ 1990 26.15 1.718 24.43 6.57 93.43 ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤـل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ 1991 30.45 2.044 28.41 6.71 93.29 ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺴـﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ، ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻫـﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺃﺱ‬ .. ‫ﺒﻘﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻬﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬ 1992 32.4 2.622 29.78 8.09 91.91 ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬  ‫ﻟﺴﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ . ‫ﻭﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ 1993 32.73 2.298 30.43 7.02 92.98 ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴـﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ 1994 40.01 3.178 36.84 7.94 92.06 ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ل‬ ، ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ) ٢٠١٥ -٢٠١٨ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﻜﻥ؛‬ ‫ﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ‬ 1995 46.02 3.381 42.64 7.35 92.65 . ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴـﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤـﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻅﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ 1996 54.89 4.484 50.4 8.17 91.83 ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌـﺩل‬ 1997 68.48 5.192 63.29 7.58 92.42 .( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺩﻓﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﻠﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ‬ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١١ ( ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ٢٠١٢ ، ٢٠١٣ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻻﺸﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻴـﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻓﻀﻼ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺒـﻊ‬ ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ‬ ١٩.٧ % ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٩٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٧.٩ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٩٨ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ١٣.٩ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﻀـﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ 1998 61.35 8.157 53.19 13.3 86.7 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗـﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻨـﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺫ‬ ، ‫ﻓـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘـﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ 1999 64.02 8.419 55.6 13.15 86.85 2000 64.45 8.134 56.32 12.62 87.38 ‫ﻜـﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺽ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ 47.36 4.51 42.85 8.95 91.05 ‫ﻤﺠـﺎل‬ ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻜﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻜـﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒـﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺼـﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐـﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ٩٠ % 2001 63.58 8.197 55.38 12.89 87.11 ‫ﺍﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺫﺓ‬ ) ١٩٧٠ -١٩٧٩ ( ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺜـﻡ‬ ٦٠ % 2002 67.51 9.594 57.92 14.21 85.79 2003 68.1 6.404 61.7 9.4 90.6 ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٩٨٠ -١٩٩٢ ( ) ١ ( ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻨـﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺜـﻡ‬ ، ٤٠.١ % ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴـﻁ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ 2004 79.56 7.559 72 9.5 90.5 -٢٠١١ ( ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ 2005 96.46 7.42 89.04 7.69 92.31 2006 115.74 8.044 107.7 6.95 93.05 ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻨﺼـﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺨـﺭﻯ‬ 2007 155.34 7.791 147.55 5.02 94.98 ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀـﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﻜـﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋ‬ ‫ﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺇﺴـﻬ‬ ‫ﺎﻤﻪ‬ 2008 199.53 8.073 191.46 4.05 95.95 2009 197.14 6.862 190.28 3.48 96.52 ‫ﺤﻴـﺙ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻪ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻐﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻤـﺎل‬ 2010 231.83 6.743 225.08 2.91 97.09 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﻘﺒل‬ ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴـﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘـﻭﺩﺓ‬ 2011 229.07 6.835 222.23 2.98 97.02 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ 136.71 7.59 129.12 7.19 92.81 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : -‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ‬ . ( ‫ﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴـﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٦.٥٦ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٩٠ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٤.٢ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﺕ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ٢.٩٨ % ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺯﺭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺠﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘل‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ .
	) ١ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ( ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻗﻊ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ‬ ( ) ١ ( ، ‫ﺤﺴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻌﺎﻡ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺫﻜﺭﺓ‬ ١٥٨٦ ‫ﻤﺎﻴﻭ‬ ، ١٩٩٥ .

‫رى‬ ‫اﻻﺧ‬ 
‫ﺎدﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻ‬ ‫ﺎت‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘطﺎﻋ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣواﺟﮭ‬ ‫ﺗﺛﻣﺎرات‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎرﻧ‬ ‫زراﻋﻰ‬ ‫اﻟ‬ ‫ﺗﺛﻣﺎر‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺳ‬ ‫ﺑﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻧﺳ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫اﻻھﻣﯾ‬ (٢٠١١-١٩٩٠) ‫ﺗرة‬ ‫اﻟﻔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ 8%92%

  ‫ﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻘوﻣ‬ ‫ﺗﺛﻣﺎر‬ ‫اﻻﺳ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫اﻟ‬ ‫زراﻋﻰ‬ ‫اﻟ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻘوﻣ‬ ‫ﺗﺛﻣﺎر‬ ‫اﻻﺳ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫اﻟ‬ ‫ﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻘطﺎﻋ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﻓ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ 


	‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠١١ (	:	(	) ١	‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺸﻜل‬
	‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺸﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻋﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬
	‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺤﺎﺕ‬	‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺼﻠﺤﺔ‬	‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻥ‬
	‫ﺒﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻤﺭﺍﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺼﺼﺔ‬
	‫ﺤﺴﺏ‬	‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬	‫ﻟﻠﺤﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﺼل‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬	‫ﻋﺸﺭ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ، ‫ﺴﺒﺔ‬	‫ﻤﻨﺎ‬
											.	‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬
	‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻨـﺎﻁﻕ‬	‫ﺨﺭﻴﻁـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬	‫ﻫﻭ‬	‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬	‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬	‫ﻴﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬	‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬	‫ﺃﻥ‬	‫ﻭﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ‬ ‫ﻥ‬
	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ . ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ٢٠٠٧ ‫ﺒﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼـﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴـﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻲ‬
					.	‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬	‫ﺇﻁﺎﺭ‬	‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻵﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻁﺎﻉ‬



  ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠل‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﻔﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺸ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺩﺨﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻀﻴﻔﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ . ‫ﻟﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻁﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺘﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻀﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﺍﺤﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺒل‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﺎﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎل‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺫﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘﻭﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ . ‫ﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ : ‫اﻟﺠﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺪار‬ ، ‫اﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ، ٢٠٠٠ . ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤـﻭﺙ‬ ‫،ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺴل‬ ‫ﻤﺫﻜﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺩﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻋﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ 


	1X 2 (-7.8)** Ŷ= 55.3 + 1.7 X + 1.4X 2 (8.2)** (0.2) (2)** Ŷ= 53 + 1.6 X + 1.2X 2 (0.2) (1.9)** Ŷ= 21 --11.8X (-7.8)** ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻯ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠٠٠ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻰ‬ ) ١٩٩٠ -٢٠٠٠ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻰ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١١ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ) ٥ ( = . X 1 : Ŷ = ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ t ) = ١ ، ٢ ، ٣ .... ٢٢ .( ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ( ) ‫ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ t ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ** ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ٠.٠٥ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ 0.77 0.91 0.91 0.86 ) ١٩٩٠ 33 45 42 59 -٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ 3 4 ٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ---٥٩ ‫ﺠﻨ‬ ‫ﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓـﺭﺩ‬ ١٩٩٠ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﻰ‬ ٢٢١ ( ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻓﺭﺩﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ١٣٢ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗـﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠـﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻭﻀـﺢ‬ ) ٦ ( ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼـﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺨـﺫ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻴﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٤.٥ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺼﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥٩ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٩٠ ، ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴـﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢.٨ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺍﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻯ‬ ٠.٠٥ ، ‫ﻜﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ) F ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻜـل‬ ‫ﻤﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ٠.٩١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ٩١ % ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴـﺩ‬ ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻰ‬ ٥٦ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ١٩٩٠ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٩٢ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٠.١١٩ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺒﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬ ٩١ % ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﻭﻗـﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٤ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴـﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺘـﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥٦ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ١٩٩٠ ، ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ١٩٧٠ . ‫ﺴـﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢.٤ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺍﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻯ‬ ٠.٠٥ ، ‫ﻜﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ) F ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻜل‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١١ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ٢٢١ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ 2001 ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ١٤٩ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ ٢٠١١ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٨٤ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ . ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻌﻨﻰ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١١ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﺤﻴـﺙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺒﻭﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﺼﻌﻭﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ١٩١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ٨١ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٣٧ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ . ‫ﻤﻌﻨـﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺴـﻨﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ١١.٨ ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻓﺭﺩ‬ . ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ٨٦ % ‫ﻓـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻬﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ‬ . ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ . ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺴﻤﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺁﻨﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ) ١ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺒﻭل‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬ : -١ -‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﺎﺸﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻯ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ : ‫ﻋﻠ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻻﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ . ٣ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﻗﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺴﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ . ٤ -‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺒﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ . ) ١ ( ، ‫اﻟﺸﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬ ، ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺤﻮث‬ ‫،ﻣﻌﻬﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻨﺴﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺬﻛﺮة‬ ، ٥ -‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﺎﻁﺔ‬ : ‫ﻗﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻜﻠﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺎﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺒﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﻀﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ . ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺤل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻀﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ : -‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺎﻜل‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻕ‬ . ‫ﻫﻰ‬ : ١ -‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ : ‫ﻓﻬﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺨﺫﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ : ) ١ ( . ٣ -‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ : ‫ﻓﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻴﺩﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﺽ‬ . ٤ -‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻰ‬ ) ٢ ( . ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺤل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﺎﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻵﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ) ١ ( ، ‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻤﺪوح‬ ‫دﻋﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﻣ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﺾ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ‬ ‫دراﺳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺰﻳﻮت‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺻﻴﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺆﺛﺮة‬ ‫ﻞ‬ ، ‫ﺷﻤﺲ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﻴﺮ‬ ‫رﺳﺎﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫اﻟﻐﺬاﺋﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠٠٥ . ) ٢ ( ‫اﻟﻘﺎدر‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎدر‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ) ‫دﻛﺘﻮر‬ ( ١ . ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ١٩٧٠ . ٢ . ‫ﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﻗـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺤﺴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺫﻜﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ١٥٨٦ ‫ﻤﺎﻴﻭ‬ ، ١٩٩٥ . ٣ . ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﻟﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻋﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﻴﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٠ . ٤ . ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﺴﻜﻨﺩﺭﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠٠٠ . ٥ . ، ٢٠٠٥ . ٦ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ، ‫ﻴﺤﻴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺤﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﻴﻲ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺩﻜﺘـﻭﺭﺍﻩ‬ ‫ﺭﺴـﺎﻟﺔ‬ ، ‫اﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪرﻳﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ، ‫ﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠١٣ .

Abstract

Investment is considered one of the most important key components of the national income due of its significant impact on production income and employment levels Changes in national income depend largely on the fluctuations in the demand for investment. The problem of the study are the low volume of investments allowed to the agricultural sector despite its importance as one of the key sectors in the economy National investment where estimated to decrease the growth rate of agricultural investment both domestic and foreign, and the small relative share of the agricultural sector of the total investments. 
The study was interested in analyzing the standard econometric determinants of agricultural investment in the Egyptian economy through the design of an econometric model dealt with agricultural investment and using econometrics models to determined the important factor which affecting on agric. investment . 
In light of the results of the previous analysis on the determinants of the Agricultural Investment study concluded the following: Create the right investment environment to support investment and activated leading to increased production, thus reducing domestic debt, which attracts more private investment, domestic and foreign, which stimulates aggregate demand and increase employment rates in the community, the agricultural sector of the most important economic sectors of civil poverty if appropriate investments supported so must be given adequate care when developing plans for the economic development of the society.