‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ١٥٣٣ * ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٠,٠٥ ** ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬


Source: Alexandria Cotton Exporters Association (2000-2017). The Egyptian cotton Gazette. J. of Alex.. Various Volumes. 

( - ١٦,٦ ** - ٥,٨ ** - ٧ ** - ٤,٧ * - ٣,٦ * - ٣,٧ * - ٢١,٣ ** - ٩,٤ ** - ١٠,
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻨﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺘﺞ‬ ، : ٤٥ ، ٧٠ ، ٨٧ ، ٨٨ ، ٩٢ ، ٩٣ ، ٩٦ ) ١٧ ( ، ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﺯل‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻨﺘﺞ‬ ٧٠ ‫ﺇﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬ ) ٩ ( ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﻭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺯل‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪‬ﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ١ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺼﺔ‬ ١ ‫ﺒﻭﺼﺔ‬ ) ١١ ( ‫ﺠﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻨﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺘﺞ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ : ٨٠ ، ٨٦ ، ٨٩ ، ٩٠ ، ٩٤ ، ٩٥ ) ١٧ ( ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﻏﺯل‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻨﺘﺞ‬ ٥٠ - ٧٠ ‫ﺇﻨﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺔ‬ ) ٩ ( ، ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻭﺘﺸﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪‬ﺴﺘﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻨﺘﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﻭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ) ٥ ( ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ : ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ :( ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ - ٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( . ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ٤٠,١٢ ٣٨,١٦ ٧٨,٢٨ ٢٠٠١ ٣٤,٢٥ ٥٠,٢٩ ٨٤,٥٤ ٢٠٠٢ ٥٤,٢٠ ١٠٤,٥ ١٥٨,٧ ٢٠٠٣ ٣٤,٩١ ٥٣,٧٧ ٨٨,٦٨ ٢٠٠٤ ٧٤,٥٨ ٦٤,٨٣ ١٣٩,٤١ ٢٠٠٥ ٢٤,٩٣ ٦٥,٦٩ ٩٠,٦٢ ٢٠٠٦ ٢٤,٩٣ ٤٦,٨٣ ٧١,٧٦ ٢٠٠٧ ٣٢,٣٠ ٩٧,٥٦ ١٢٩,٨٦ ٢٠٠٨ ١٨,٨٦ ٢٠,٨١ ٣٩,٦٧ ٢٠٠٩ ٢٢,٠٠ ٥١,٠٠ ٧٣,٠٠ ٢٠١٠ ٢٤,٠٠ ٧٦,٠٠ ١٠٠,٠٠ ٢٠١١ ٢٥,٠٠ ٤٨,٠٠ ٧٣,٠٠ ٢٠١٢ ١٧,٠٠ ٣٥,٠٠ ٥٢,٠٠ ٢٠١٣ ٤,٠٠ ٢١,٠٠ ٢٥,٠٠ ٢٠١٤ ٤,٠٠ ٣٦,٠٠ ٤٠,٠٠ ٢٠١٥ ١,٠٠ ٢٥,٠٠ ٢٦,٠٠ ٢٠١٦ ٠,٦٠ ٣٠,٠٠ ٣٠,٦٠ ٢٠١٧ ٢,٠٠ ٤٨,٠٠ ٥٠,٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٤,٣٧ ٥٠,٦٩ ٧٥,٠٦٢ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) % ( - ٢٢,٤ ** - ٤,٢ * - ٧,٧
١٤,٢٤ ١٢٩,٨٥ ١٤٤,٠٩ ٦٣,٥ ٧٨,٤٨ ١٤١,٩٨ ٢٠٠١ ١٧,٧٤ ١١٧,٦٤ ١٣٥,٣٨ ٣٣,٣٩ ٨٣,٦٩ ١١٧,٠٨ ٢٠٠٢ ١٣,٩٩ ١٣١,٢٥ ١٤٥,٢٤ ٢٥,١٥ ١٣٩,٨٤ ١٦٤,٩٩ ٢٠٠٣ ١٦,٣٨ ١٩٦,٦١ ٢١٢,٩٩ ٩,١٢ ٥٢,٤٧ ٦١,٥٩ ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠,٦٣ ١٠٣,٤١ ١٢٤,٠٤ ٢٢,١٠ ٣٤,٩٠ ٥٧,٠٠ ٢٠٠٥ ١٧,٠٨ ١٤٥,٢٨ ١٦٢,٣٦ ١٢,١٠ ٤٦,٢٠ ٥٨,٣٠ ٢٠٠٦ ٩,٩٩ ٨٧,٢٩ ٩٧,٢٨ ١٥,٨٠ ٢٣,٧ ٣٩,٥٠ ٢٠٠٧ ١٢,٠٩ ٦٧,٤٨ ٧٩,٥٧ ٢٩,٧٠ ١٤,٣٠ ٤٤,٠٠ ٢٠٠٨ ١٤,٥١ ١١٢,٢٥ ١٢٦,٧٦ ٢٤,٩٠ ١٣,٨٠ ٣٨,٧٠ ٢٠٠٩ ٥,٢٢ ٣٧,٩٠ ٤٣,١٢ ٢٣,٠٠ ١٢,١٤ ٣٥,١٤ ٢٠١٠ ٦,٢٣ ٧١,٢٤ ٧٧,٤٧ ٧,٠٠ ٣٠,٠٠ ٣٧,٠٠ ٢٠١١ ٠,٧٣ ٣٢,٨٩ ٣٣,٦٢ ٧,٠٠ ٢٤,٠٠ ٣١,٠٠ ٢٠١٢ ٢,٢٩ ٦٥,٣٥ ٦٧,٦٤ ١٩,٠٠ ٢٤,٠٠ ٤٣,٠٠ ٢٠١٣ ٠,٧٦ ٧١,٦٨ ٧٢,٤٤ ٧,٠٠ ٢٤,٠٠ ٣١,٠٠ ٢٠١٤ ٠,٩٣ ٣٨,٨١ ٣٩,٧٣ ٥,٠٠ ١٦,٠٠ ٢١,٠٠ ٢٠١٥ ١,١٣ ٢٦,٩٥ ٢٨,٠٨ ٣,٠٠ ١٣,٠٠ ١٦,٠٠ ٢٠١٦ ١,٥٢ ٣١,٤١ ٣٢,٩٣ ٣,٠٠ ١١,٠٠ ١٤,٠٠ ٢٠١٧ ٠,٨٠ ٢٥,٦٧ ٢٦,٤٧ ٢,٠٠ ٩,٠٠ ١١,٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٨,٦٨ ٨٢,٩٤ ٩١,٦٢ ١٧,٣٢ ٣٦,١٤ ٥٣,٤٦ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ % - ٢١,٧ ** - ١٠,٤ ** - ١١,١ ** - ١٤,٩ ** - ١٢,١ ** - ١٣,١

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬

  ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻨﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻌﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ،‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ 


	‫ﺃ‬ . ‫ِﻤﺔ‬ ‫‪‬ﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺯل‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫‪‬ﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻁﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻨﺎﺼﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻭﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﻁﻨﻁﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺩﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﻨﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ -‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬  ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪‬ﺴﺘﺤ‬ ‫ﻭﻤ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺒﻭﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺯﻏﺏ‬ ‫‪‬ﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴل،‬ ‫ﻀﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪‬ﺨﻠﻔﺎﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﹸﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺭﻕ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺏ‬ ( ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻁﺏ‬ ) ٢٠ ( . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻭﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻨﺒﻲ،‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻐل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺫ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ٢٥,٩٢ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٢,٨ % ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﺓ‬ ) ٢٠١٢ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ) ١٩ ( . ) ١ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ٩٨ % ‫ﻨﻤﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻴﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺯل‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ١ ‫ﺇﻟ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ٤٠ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ‬ ٢ % ‫ﻨﻤﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺨﻴﻭﻁﺎ‬ ‫ِﺞ‬ ‫‪‬ﻨﺘ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ٤٠ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻤﺎ‬ ( ) ٦ (  ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻠﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﻱ،‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ١٠٦,٧١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣٧,٢٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠١٢ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ، ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻅﻴﺭﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٣١,٤٥ % ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ١٦,٢٨ % ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ٢٤٧,٥٦ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٧٣,٩٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ) ١٧ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻓ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻲ‬  ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺼﻔﺎﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻁﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ) : ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ) ٢ ( ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺙ،‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ، ) ٤ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺎ‬ . ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺍﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺘﻨﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ،‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺔ‬ : . ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ : . ‫ﺘﻨﺘﺠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫‪‬ﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﺌﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻴﺤﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﹶﺞ‬ ‫ﹸﻨﺘ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ -‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠١٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ١٥٣٤ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ : ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ،‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ) : ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪‬ﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ‬ ‫‪‬ﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ،‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺕ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺁﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ) ١٣ ، ١٨ ( Simultaneous Equation Model ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻼﺀﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻩ‬ ، ‫ﻤﺭﺍﺤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ Three Stage Least Squares ‫ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ، E.Views 10 . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﺠﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻬﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ،  ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﻜﻨﺩﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫‪‬ﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤ‬ : ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬ : ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ) ١ (

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬

  
	‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ٠,٨٠٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠١٠ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ١٥٣٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٠,٠٩١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ٤,٧ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪‬ﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٠,٣٤٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ٠,٠١٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٠,١٣٦ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ٠,٥٩٩ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ٣,٦ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٠,٣٣٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ٠,٠١٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ : ( ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﻭل‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ) ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ( ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
	: ١٣١,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎ‬ : ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤ‬ ‫ﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ٢٠١٧ ) ‫ﺃ‬ ( ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٧٣١,١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹸ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٧ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٤٧٣,١١ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ٣٣,١٢ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻐﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻠﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺯ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻁﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ) ٣ ( . ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٦,٧٨ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﺒﻠ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻎ‬ ١٩٦,٥٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ١٦,٦ % ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ٨٦,٤٥ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٤,٣٥ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ١٢٣,٧٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ٦٠٩,٠٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ٥,٨ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ٣٨٦,٦٦ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٢,٤٣ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ) ‫ﺏ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٠,١٤١ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٠,٦٠٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣,٧ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ٠,٠١٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ . ٠,٣٣٥ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ، : . ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ) %

Alexandria Cotton Exporters Association (2000-2017). The Egyptian cotton Gazette. J. of Alex.. Various Volumes.

  
			‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻡ،‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ٧٧,٤٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ -‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠١٩ ١٥٣٦ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﺃﻋﻭﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺴ‬ ‫ﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ٢١,٣ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٣٠,٢١ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٦,٤٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٣٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٢٦٠,٨٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ٩,٤ % ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ١٢٩,٥٨ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ١٢,١٨ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ : ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺌﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ١ ‫ﺒﻭﺼﺔ‬ ) ١١ (
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	.	٠,٠١	‫ﺍﻹﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬	‫ﺔ‬	‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴ‬	‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬	**	٠,٠٥	‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬	‫ﻴﺔ‬	‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭ‬	‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬	*
			) ‫ﺠـ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ : ٣١١,٧٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹸ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ١٧,٠٩ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ١٠,٧ % ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ٣٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٥٩,٧٩ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ .

Source: 
Alexandria Cotton Exporters Association (2000-2017).The Egyptian cotton Gazette. J. of Alex..Various Volumes.

  
	** ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٩ ‫ﺁﻻﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ٠,٠١ . ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ٢٠١٧ ** ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ١٣٩,٨٤ ‫ﻡ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪‬ﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻱ‬ ١٢,١ % ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ٣٦,١٤ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ِﺭ‬ ‫ﹸﺩ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٤,٣٧ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ . ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫‪‬ﺘﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻔﻲ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﹸ‬ ‫ﺍﺘ‬ ِ ‫ﺨ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺨﺘﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل‬ ٢٠٠٣ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺭﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻜﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﺎﺭﺏ‬ ) ٣ ، ٨ ( ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ، ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٧٦,٨٦ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﹸ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ِ ‫ﺨ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻠﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﻁﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ) ٨ ( ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ١٧٩,٨١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻡ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ِﺫ‬ ‫ﹸﺨ‬ ‫ﺍﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒل‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺒﺈﻋﻁﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻜﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻔﺘﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺇﻁﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻜﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻠﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺠﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﻔﻲ‬ ) ٧٠ ، ٨٨ ( ) ٨ ( ، ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٠,٥٤٥ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٤ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ٠,٢٨٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫‪‬ﻘﺎﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻅﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺝ‬ ) ٨ ( ‫ﻭﺃﺩﻯ‬ ، ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ١٥٣٩ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٥١,٢٣ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ، ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﹸ‬ ‫ﺍﺘ‬ ِ ‫ﺨ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ﺫ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻜﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻀﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ‬ ) ٨ ( ، ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ١٢ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ،‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ١٨٥ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ، ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻜﺯﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺈﺼﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺼﻨﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻀﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻨﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻠﺯﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺠﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻊ‬ ‫ﻹﻜﺜﺎﺭ‬ ) ١٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﻪ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٠,١٧٩ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ / ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ‫ﻟﻸ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻴﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﺭﻯ‬ ) ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ‬ ( ‫ﻴﻜﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻔﺼﻼ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻗﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ‬ ) ٩ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫‪‬ﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‬ : ) ١ ( ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ِﺠﻪ‬ ‫‪‬ﻨﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ : ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ِﺠﻪ‬ ‫‪‬ﻨﺘ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ، ‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﹸﺴﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٨,٨٣ % ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻺ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ٥٥٤,٣٣ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ،‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺭﻜﻤﺴﺘﺎﻥ،‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٣,٨٧ % ، ١٩,٢٢ % ، ١٣,٥٨ % ، ٣,٩٠ % ، ٢,٩٦ % ، ٢,٣٣ % ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻟﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﹸﻌﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺘ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﻌﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺘﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻁﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﻟﺸﻌﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺭﻁﻭﺒﺔ‬ ) ١٤ ( ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٨٤,٣٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ١٨٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٣٢,٣١ ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٣٨ ‫ﺃﻟ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ١٩٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٠٦,٥٣ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ، ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻬﻨﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ٥١,٨٢ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٩٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٧٥,٢٦ ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻜ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻨ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ١١,٩٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ٢٩,٩٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢١,٦٥ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺭﻜ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻨ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﻭل‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ . ‫ﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ . ‫‪‬ﻌﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺸﺎﻁﻰﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﺸﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻠﻭﺯ،‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺴﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺔ،‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ -‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠١٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ١٥٤٠ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ :( ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻗﻁ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ِﺠﺔ‬ ‫‪‬ﻨﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠٠ -٢٠١٧ ‫ﻡ‬ ( ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴ‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺠﻴﻜﺴﺘﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺭﻜﻴﻤﻨﺴﺘﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺯﺒﺎﻜﺴﺘﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺘﺠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺁﺨﺭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠٠٠ ٦١,٣٦ ٢٠٢,٩٣ ٨٤,٥٦ ١١,٩٢ ٤,١٢ ١٨,٤٣ ١١,٢٧ ١٩,٩٥ ٨٤,٣٤ ١١,٠٦ ٣,٩٠ ٥١٧,٧٥ ٢٠٠١ ٩٦,٧٠ ٣١١,٧٧ ٧٩,٥٧ ١٦,٠٤ ٥,٤٢ ٢٦,٤٥ ١٧,٧٨ ٢٩,٩٢ ١٥١,٧٧ ١٤,٥٣ ٣,٩٠ ٧٥٣,٨٥ ٢٠٠٢ ٦٩,٨١ ٢٨٥,١١ ٦٤,٨٣ ١٠,٧٣ ٣,٥٨ ٤٥,١٠ ٣٣,١٧ ١٩,٩٥ ١٤٧,٠٠ ١٦,٤٨ ٣,٩٠ ٦٩٩,٦٦ ٢٠٠٣ ١١٢,٩٦ ١٩٦,٤٣ ٦٩,٨١ ٨,٤٦ ٣,٩٠ ٤١,٨٤ ١٦,٩١ ٢٧,١٠ ٩٣,٦٦ ١٦,٩١ ٤,٣٤ ٥٩٢,٣٢ ٢٠٠٤ ٨٦,٠٧ ٢٨٨,٧٩ ٦٩,٨١ ١٤,٩٦ ٨,٠٢ ٤٤,٠١ ١٣,٤٤ ٢٢,٩٨ ١٦١,٧٤ ١٤,٩٦ ٤,٧٧ ٧٢٩,٥٥ ٢٠٠٥ ٧٩,٥٧ ٢٠٠,٣٣ ٥١,٨٢ ١٢,٣٦ ١٣,٤٤ ٣٧,٠٧ ٨,٠٢ ١١,٩٢ ١٣٦,٥٩ ١١,٩٢ ٤,٣٤ ٥٦٧,٣٨ ٢٠٠٦ ١٧٧,٣٥ ٢٠٩,٤٤ ٦٨,٧٣ ١٩,٥١ ١٦,٩١ ٣١,٠٠ ٩,٩٧ ٢٥,٨٠ ١٦٥,٨٦ ١٣,٨٨ ٥,٨٥ ٧٤٤,٣ ٢٠٠٧ ١٥٢,٤٢ ٢٢١,١٥ ٧٧,٦٢ ١٨,٠٠ ١٦,٢٦ ١٣,٤٤ ٨,٠٢ ٢٥,٨٠ ١٨٤,٧٢ ١٣,٠١ ٤,٩٩ ٧٣٥,٤٣ ٢٠٠٨ ١٠٧,٥٤ ١٠٤,٧٢ ٧٦,١٠ ٨,٠٢ ٨,٨٩ ١٠,٤١ ٣,٩٠ ٢٢,٩٨ ٩٣,٤٥ ٣,٠٤ ٤,٩٩ ٤٤٤,٠٤ ٢٠٠٩ ١١١,٠٠ ٩٥,٠٠ ٧٧,٠٠ ٧,٠٠ ٥,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٢١,٠٠ ٨٧,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ٥,٠٠ ٤١٣,٠٠ ٢٠١٠ ١٢٥,٠٠ ١٣٢,٠٠ ٦٣,٠٠ ٧,٠٠ ١٤,٠٠ ٤,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٢٠,٠٠ ١١٠,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ٦,٠٠ ٤٨٤,٠٠ ٢٠١١ ١٣٠,٠٠ ١٨٥,٠٠ ٧٠,٠٠ ١٥,٠٠ ٩,٠٠ ١٦,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ١٨,٠٠ ١٨٥,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ٧,٠٠ ٦٣٨,٠٠ ٢٠١٢ ٦٠,٠٠ ١٠٨,٠٠ ٧٠,٠٠ ١٤,٠٠ ٩,٠٠ ٣,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ١٨,٠٠ ١٧٠,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ٦,٠٠ ٤٦٢,٠٠ ٢٠١٣ ٣٨,٠٠ ٩٤,٠٠ ٧٦,٠٠ ١١,٠٠ ٨,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ١٧,٠٠ ١٣٨,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ٥,٠٠ ٣٩٢,٠٠ ٢٠١٤ ٦٥,٠٠ ١١٠,٠٠ ٨٨,٠٠ ١٤,٠٠ ٦,٠٠ ٠,٠٠ ٠,٠٠ ٢٠,٠٠ ١٢٣,٠٠ ٢,٠٠ ٩,٠٠ ٤٣٧,٠٠ ٢٠١٥ ١٢٥,٠٠ ٥٤,٠٠ ٩٤,٠٠ ١٧,٠٠ ١١,٠٠ ٠,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٢٣,٠٠ ٩٤,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٨,٠٠ ٤٢٨,٠٠ ٢٠١٦ ١٩٧,٠٠ ٣٥,٠٠ ٩١,٠٠ ١٤,٠٠ ٩,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٢٦,٠٠ ١٢٤,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٨,٠٠ ٥٠٧,٠٠ ٢٠١٧ ١٢٢,٧٩ ٤٢,٥٠ ٨٢,٨٨ ١٣,٤١ ١٠,٨٣ ١,٠٠ ١,٠٠ ٢٠,٢٢ ١٣١,٤٦ ٢,٠٠ ٧,٩٠ ٤٣٢,٦٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ١٠٦,٥٣ ١٥٩,٧٨٧ ٧٥,٢٦ ١٢,٩١ ٩,٠٢ ١٦,٤٣ ٧,٣٦ ٢١,٦٥ ١٣٢,٣١ ٧,٣٢ ٥,٧٢ ٥٥٤,٣٣ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ١,٣ n.s -١٠,٧ ** ١,٢ n.s ٠,٥ n.s ----٠,٦ n.s ٠,١ n.s ---(%) ** ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ٠,٠١ . n.s ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ .

Source: 
Source: Alexandria Cotton Exporters Association. (2000-2017). The Egyptian cotton

Gazette. J. of Alex.. Various Volumes. 

‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬


Summary:

The research aimed to study the current situation of Egyptian cotton exports. through: (1) Studing the development of Egyptian cotton statistics during the period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017). (2) Identifing the main features of the global market for Extra fine cottons and Egypt's position in this market. (3) Statistical estimating evaluation of the global demand for Egyptian cotton (4) Identifing the reasons for the decrease of Egyptian cotton exports and suggestion some recommendations for their development. 

‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬


‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ١٥٤٨

The research had come to some important results and conclusion can be summarized a: 
(1) Decreasing the cultivated area. feddan yield and total production of the cotton crop in Egypt with an annual statistically significant decrease rate estimated by about 7%. 3.7%. and 10.7% respectively during the period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017). 
(2) Decreasing the exports. consumption and stock at a statistically significant annual rate of decrease estimated by about 7.7%. 11.1% and 13.1% respectively during the research period. ( 3) is considered one of the most important countries producing extra-fine cotton in the world during the research period. as it contributed with about 28.83% of the annual average global production of these cotton. which is about 554.33 thousand tons. followed by U. S. A. China. India. Turkmenistan. Sudan and Israel with rates of 23.87%. 19.22%. 13.58%. 3.90%. 2.96% and 2.33% respectively. (4) U. S. A. is considered one of the most important countries exporting extra fine cotton in the world during the research period. as it contributed about 45.37% of the annual average of world cotton exports of about 278.95 thousand tons. followed by Egypt. Turkmenistan. Sudan. China and Israel. with rates of 25.56%. 6.63%. 5.87%. 5.65%. and 5% respectively. knowing that. India uses its production for local consumption and its average exports were only about one thousand tons during the research period. (5) Local production of cotton is affected by cultivated area and time. while the local consumption of cotton is affected by production and imports. but Egyptian cotton exports is affected by American exports. the relative price between Egyptian cotton and American cotton and the international price of polyester. as the local cotton stock of Egypt is affected by the local stock in the previous year and the local consumption. 
In light of the findings of the research. it is proposed to develop the Egyptian cotton exports at the same time to work on the following: 
(1) Directing production of Egyptian extra fine cotton for export to global markets in the form of raw cotton or lint cotton. as well as to meet the needs of Egyptian factories specialized (No. 40 and more). (2) Growing the short and medium staple cotton in Egypt addition to make agricultural research institutes national plan for selecting medium and short staple strains that are generally suitable for the Egyptian environment and make a geographical map of it. Key words: Egyptian cotton. extra-fine cotton. Egyptian cotton exports.
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ١٥٣٣ * ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٠,٠٥ ** ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬