‫الورادات‬ ‫العالمية‬ ‫للقمح‬ ) ‫طن‬ ‫مليون‬ ( ١٩٩٥ ٢,٥١ ٢,٢٨ ٥,٧٢ ٩,٠٣ ٣,٣١ - ٦٣,٣٤ ٥,٠٩ ٢,٩٨ ١١,٥ ١,٨ ٩,٦ ٢٦,١ ٥٤٢,٧ ١٠١,٦٦ ١٠١,٥٦ ١٩٩٦ ٢,٤٢ ٢,٣٧ ٥,٧٣ ٩,٠٧ ٣,٣٤ - ٦٣,١٨ ٦,٠٠ ٣,٧٤ ١٣,١ ١,٨ ١١,٣ ٢٨,٢ ٥٨٥,٢ ٩٨,٨٤ ١٠٣,٩٣ ١٩٩٧ ٢,٤٩ ٢,٣٥ ٥,٨٥ ٩,٧٦ ٣,٩١ - ٥٩,٩٤ ٦,٩ ٢,٦٤ ١١,٧ ١,٥ ١,٢ ٢٢,٢ ٦١٣,٣٧ ١٠٧,٠٣ ١٠٤,٩٤ ١٩٩٨ ٢,٤٢ ٢,٥٢ ٦,٠٩ ١٠,٥٦ ٤,٤٧ - ٥٧,٦٧ ٥,٤٣ ٢,٥٤ ١١,٧ ٢ ٩,٨ ٤١,٤ ٥٩٣,٥٣ ١٠٩,٤٦ ١٠٦,١٣ ١٩٩٩ ٣,٣٨ ٢,٦٧ ٦,٢٢ ٩,٦٦ ٣,٤٤ - ٦٤,٣٩ ٤,٢٤ ١,٩٩ ١٢ ٢,١ ١٠ ١٦,٧ ٥٨٧,٦٢ ١١٤,٤٩ ١١٢,٧٧ ٢٠٠٠ ٢,٤٦ ٢,٦٧ ٦,٤٥ ١٠,٤٩ ٤,٠٤ - ٦١,٤٩ ٤,٨٩ ٢,١٢ ١٣,٢ ١,٨ ١١,٣ ١٥,٩ ٥٨٥,٦٩ ١١٧,١٩ ١١٧,٠٦ ٢٠٠١ ٢,٣٤ ٢,٦٧ ٦,٤١ ٩,٢٤ ٢,٨٣ - ٦٩,٣٧ ٤,٤١ ١,٧١ ١٤,٥ ٢,٢ ١٢,٣ ١١,٧ ٥٨٩,٨٣ ١١٣,٧٥ ١١٢,٨٥ ٢٠٠٢ ٢,٤٥ ٢,٥٤ ٦,٤٤ ١١,٠١ ٤,٥٧ - ٥٨,٤٩ ٥,٥٧ ٣,٠١ ١٥,١ ٣,٨ ١١,٣ ٢٠ ٥٧٤,٧٥ ١٢٠,٤ ١٢٠,٧٥ ٢٠٠٣ ٢,٥٤ ٢,٧٣ ٦,٨٤ ١٠,٣٤ ٣,٥٠ - ٦٦,١٥ ٤,٠٥ ٣,٠٧ ١٦,٦ ٥,٤ ١١,٢ ١٨,٧ ٥٦٠,١٣ ١٠٩,٥٩ ١١٠,٦٤ ٢٠٠٤ ٢,٦١ ٢,٧٥ ٧,١٨ ١١,١ ٣,٩٢ - ٦٤,٦٨ ٤,٣٦ ٤,٤٣ ١٧,٧ ٧,٦ ١٠ ٢٤,٩ ٦٣٢,٧ ١١٨,٩٤ ١١٦,٦٦ ٢٠٠٥ ٢,٩ ٢,٧٣ ٨,١٥ ١٢ ٣,٨٥ - ٦٧,٩٢ ٥,٦٨ ٥,٣٠ ٢٢,٣ ٦,٢ ١٦ ٢٣,٨ ٦٢٦,٨٧ ١٢٠,٤٧ ١٢٠,٢٨ ٢٠٠٦ ٣,٠٦ ٢,٧ ٨,٢٧ ١٢,٧٤ ٤,٤٧ - ٦٤,٩١ ٥,٨١ ٥,٥٤ ٢٥ ٤,٩ ٢٠,١ ٢٢ ٦٠٢,٨٩ ١٢٦,٤٤ ١٢٦,٦٣ ٢٠٠٧ ٢,٧٢ ٢,٧٢ ٧,٣٨ ١٢,٢٢ ٤,٨٤ - ٦٠,٣٩ ٤,٥٦ ٨,٨٢ ٢٧ ٥,٥ ٢١,٥ ٣٢,٦ ٦١٢,٦١ ١٢٤,٦٥ ١٢٤,٦٧ ٢٠٠٨ ٢,٩٢ ٢,٧٣ ٧,٩٨ ١٢,٧٦ ٤,٧٨ - ٦٢,٥٤ ٥,٢١ ١١,٥١ ٣٠ ١١,٣ ١٨,٧ ٣٨,٣ ٦٨٣,٢٢ ١٣١,١٧ ١٢٨,٣٥ ٢٠٠٩ ٣,١٥ ٢,٧١ ٨,٥٢ ١٢,٨١ ٤,٢٩ - ٦٦,٥١ ٣,٩٩ ١٢,٧ ٢٨,٧ ١٣,١ ١٥,٦ ٤٤,٢ ٦٨٦,٩٦ ١٤٦,٩٧ ١٤٦,٤٦ ٢٠١٠ ٣ ٢,٣٩ ٧,١٧ ١٢,٩٢ ٥,٧٥ - ٥٥,٥٠ ٩,٧١ ١٣,٧ ٣١ ١٢,٥ ١٨,٥ ٤٤,٢ ٦٥٠,٨٨ ١٤٥,٧٤ ١٤٦,٧١ ٢٠١١ ٣,٠٥ ٢,٧٥ ٨,٣٧ ١٧,١٥ ٨,٧٨ - ٤٨,٨٠ ٩,٨ ٢٠,٣٦ ٤٧,٥ ١٦,٤ ٣١,١ ٤٢,٩ ٦٩٩,٣٧ ١٤٨,٣٥ ١٤٨,٥٧ ٢٠١٢ ٣,٢١ ٢,٦٥ ٨,٨ ١٧,٦٥ ٨,٨٥ - ٤٩,٨٦ ٨,٢٤ ١٥,١٣ ٥٢,٧ ١٥,١ ٣٧,٦ ٢٨,٨ ٦٧٢,٣ ١٦٤,٦١ ١٦٣,٤٩ ٢٠١٣ ٣,٣٣ ٢,٨٥ ٩,٥ ١٨,٠٢ ٨,٥٢ - ٥٢,٧٢ ١٢,٢٥ ٣٣,٧ ٤٨,٦٢ ١٩,٧ ٢٨,٩٢ ٦٩,٣١ ٧١٧,١ ١٥٧,٣ ١٥٤,٢١
٩,٣٢ ٦,٢٩ ‫الھند‬ ٨٧,٣٥ ١٢,٨ ‫كندا‬ ١٩,١٢ ١٣,٢٢ ‫إيطاليا‬ ٦,٦٣ ٤,٤٧ ‫المتحدة‬ ‫يات‬ ‫الو‬ ٥٨,٩ ٨,٦٣ ‫فرنسا‬ ١٨,٧٨ ١٢,٩٩ ‫الجزائر‬ ٦,٤٦ ٤,٣٦ ‫تحادية‬ ‫ا‬ ‫روسيا‬ ٤٩,٨٦ ٧,٣١ ‫استراليا‬ ١٧,٠٩ ١١,٨١ ‫البرازيل‬ ٦,٢٥ ٤,٢١ ‫فرنسا‬ ٣٨,٢٩ ٥,٦١ ‫تحادية‬ ‫ا‬ ‫روسيا‬ ١٥,٦٧ ١٠,٨٣ ‫أندونيس‬ ‫يا‬ ٥,٩٣ ٤ ‫كندا‬ ٢٨ ٤,١ ‫أوكرانيا‬ ٧,٩٦ ٥,٥ ‫اليابان‬ ٥,٦٦ ٣,٨٢ ‫باكستان‬ ٢٤,٠٤ ٣,٥٢ ‫كازخستان‬ ٥,٣٤ ٣,٦٩ ‫أسبانيا‬ ٥,١٧ ٣,٤٩ ‫تركيا‬ ٢٠,٨٥ ٣,٠٦ ‫رجنتين‬ ‫ا‬ ٤,٤٣ ٣,٠٧ ‫ھولندا‬ ٤,٩٦ ٣,٣٥ ‫استراليا‬ ٢٠,٤٦ ٣ ‫تركيا‬ ٢,٨ ١,٩٤ ‫كوريا‬ ٤,٢٤ ٢,٨٦ ‫أوكرانيا‬ ١٩,٧٢ ٢,٨٩ ‫نيجيريا‬ ٤,١٤ ٢,٧٩ ‫كازخستان‬ ١٤,٦٥ ٢,١٥ ‫تركيا‬ ٤,١ ٢,٧٦ ‫رجنتين‬ ‫ا‬ ١١,٣٠ ١,٦٦ ‫ألمانيا‬ ٣,٨٨ ٢,٦٢ ‫مصر‬ ٨,٤٧ ١,٢٤ ‫بلجيكا‬ ٣,٦ ٢,٤٣ ‫إيطاليا‬ ٧,٠١ ١,٠٣ ‫إيران‬ ٣,٤ ٢,٢٩ ‫رومانيا‬ ٦,١٥ ٠,٩٠ ‫المكسيك‬ ٣,١٦ ٢,١٣ ‫البرازيل‬ ٥,٤٢ ٠,٧٩ ‫المكسيك‬ ٣,٦٤ ٠,٥٣ ‫جم‬ ‫ا‬ ‫الي‬ ٥٢٢,١٥ ٧٦,٥١ ‫جمالي‬ ‫ا‬ ١١٩,٤٨ ٨٢,٦١ ‫جمالي‬ ‫ا‬ ٧٦,٩ ٥١,٨٧ ‫العالمي‬ ‫نتاج‬ ‫ا‬ ٦٨٢,٤٨ ‫الصادرات‬ ‫العالمية‬ ١٤٤,٦٤ ‫العالمية‬ ‫الواردات‬ ١٤٨,٢٤

ABSTRACT:

The research problem is an imbalance in the relationship of consumer productivity of wheat in Egypt, and the consequent increase in the imports of it by about 4,89 million tons, worth about $ 712,33 million in 2000 to about 12,25 million tons, worth about $ 4951 million in 2013. 
It is clear from the study that the international wheat market dominated by oligopolistic behavior, and the most important wheat producing countries in the world are China relative importance of 17,29% of the total wheat production in the world in the average period (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), followed by India at about 12,8%, the United States of America about 8,6%, and the Russian Federation by about 7,3%, and France by about 5,6%, and Canada by about 4,1%, followed by Pakistan, Turkey, Australia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Argentina by about 3,52%, 3%, 2,89%, 2,15%, 1,66%, respectively , then Egypt comes in thirteenth place by 1,24% relative importance in terms of the production of wheat in the world, and despite the rise in the relative importance of both China and India in wheat production but for them it is not a relative importance in the foreword. 
It turns out that the most important countries for imported wheat is Egypt relative about 6,3% of the amount of global exports of wheat importance followed by: Italy, Algeria, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Spain, the Netherlands, Korea, Nigeria, Turkey, Germany, Belgium, Iran, the relative importance of Mexico amounted to about: 4,5%, 4,4%, 4,2% 0,4%, 3,8%, 3,5%, 3,3%, 2,9%, 2,8%, 2,7%, 2,6% of total world imports of wheat in the average period (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013). 
As shown by the results to estimate the total demand function on Egyptian imports of wheat during the period (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013) and that the dollar exchange rate of the Egyptian pound population is the most important variables influencing the quantity of imports, it was found to estimate the elasticity coefficients of those variables that change the amount of 10% an increase in the population result in increasing the amount of wheat imports by about 26,7% and that the increase in Egyptian pound dollar exchange rate by 10% resulting in reduced amount of imports of wheat by about 1,9%. 
With respect to the estimation of future needs of Egypt's imports of wheat, the study showed that the alternative, which can lead to reduce the volume of imports in the future is a variant in which the study is supposed to reduce the average per capita consumption of wheat to about 150 kg per year under the assumption the stability of production growth rates and consumption as it is during the period (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), reaching self-sufficiency rate under this alternative to about 70% during the assumptions for future years until 2020, and that the quantity of imports will drop to about 4 million tons per year. 

: Vol. 20 (2), 2015 
• X4 = . 
: LinY = 15,99 -0,31Lin X 1 -1,05 Lin X 2 + 5,12 Lin X 3 0,21LinX 4 : 
Vol. 20 (2), 2015 
• P 1 = . 
• P 2 = . 
Vol. 20 (2), 2015 
Vol. 20 (2), 2015