‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﻓﻭﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺴﻠﻴﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻁﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﺤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ،‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬


١٠٧ ٠,٤ ٢٠٠٤ / ٢٠٠٥ ) ١ ( ١٥٠ ٠,٥٥ ٢٠٠٥ / ٢٠٠٦ ) ٢ ( ١٥٢ ٠,٥٧ ٢٠٠٩ / ٢٠١٠ ) ٣ ( ٢١٧ ٠,٧١ ٢٠١٢ / ٢٠١٣ ) ٣ ( ١٩٧,١ ٠,٥٤ ٢٠١٣ / ٢٠١٤ ) ٣ ( ١٩٧ ٠,٥٦
 ‫ﻤﺤﺼ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻭل‬ ٩ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ٪ ٢ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻴﺼل‬ ١٨ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ٪ ٣,٥ ‫ﻴـﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺴـﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٢,٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅـﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤـﺕ‬ ‫ﻟـﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺤ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ .  ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻌﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ١٨ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ٪ ٣,٥ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴـﺔ،‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻪ‬ ٢ ٪ .  ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ١٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻠﻭل‬ ٪ ) ‫ﺩﺭﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻨـﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ٣,٥ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﻴـﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻪ‬ ٨ ٪ .  ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ١٩ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ٪ ٨ ٪ .  ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ١١ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ٪ ١٦ ٪ .  ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴـﺼل‬ ‫ﻭﺴـﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻪ‬ ،٪ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ١٥ ٪ .  ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ٢٧ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﻑ‬ ٪ ٨ ٪ .  ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﻤﺎﻁﻡ‬ ١٤ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ٪ ١,٥ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴـﺔ،‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٥٠ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ٪ ٣,٥ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ .  ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ٢٥ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،٪ ٢,٥ ٪ .  ‫ﺍﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ١٧ ‫ﻋﻨـﺩ‬ ٪ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ٢ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ٣١ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ٪ ٤ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﻬﻼﻜ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬
١,٥ ‫ﻡ°‬ ٢ ‫ﻡ°‬ ٣,٥ ‫ﻡ°‬ ٤ ‫ﻡ°‬ ٣,٥ ‫ﻡ°‬ ٢ ‫ﻡ°‬ - ٣ ‫ﻡ°‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ) ٩ ( ) ١٨ ( ٢,٥ ٤٥,٤ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻌﻴﺭ‬ ) ١٨ ( ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ) ١٨ ( ٨ ٨٠,٧ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻴﻌﺔ‬ 

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٧٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬

  ‫ﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ،‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﺨﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺨﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻜﺴﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻏﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻶﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻀﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺸﺎﺸﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻻﺯﺍﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ،‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻟﺒﺘﺭﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ،‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻌﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺓ،‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻴﻪ،‬ ‫ﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﹶﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻩ،‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻪ،‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫‪‬ﻗﻊ‬ ‫‪‬ﺘﻭ‬ ‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ،‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺍﻜ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻔﻴﻔﺔ‬  ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠٥٠ . ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺘﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺤﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻁﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺴﻭﺱ‬  ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺴﺘﺘﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﹸﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ . ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻼﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﹼﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺄﻤﻭﻨ‬ ‫ﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺩﻴﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﻁﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻘﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻤﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻀﻨﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﻓﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﹲ‬ ‫ﻫﺒﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓﻴﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻔﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻴﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻼﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺘﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﻴﻀﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺯﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺃﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺜﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻥ،‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻠﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺫﻭﺒﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻼﻤﺤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻏﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻨﻁﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ،‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺭﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﻤﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺭﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ،‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻌﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺘﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﻜﺸﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻓﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺩﺍ‬ 


	٢٠١	٥	‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬	-	‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬
	‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ : ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ) Global Phenomenon ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ( ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺸ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﺒ‬ ‫ﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻅل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ،‬ . ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻸ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﺸﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ٢٠٦٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺭﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺇﻤﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻁﻴل‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ . ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻅﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻔﺎﻭﻀﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺘﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬ ٢٠٢٠ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ، ‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻀﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬ ، ) 19 ( . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻤﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ‬ Intergovernmental Panel on ) Climate Change-IPCC ( ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠٠٧ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻼ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ -‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﻌل‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻋﺎﺼﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻴﻀﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﻴﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻥ،‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻴﺔ‬ ٥٩ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺘﻴﻤﺘﺭﺍ‬ " ‫ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ " Worldwatch Institute) ( ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠٠٧ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٣٣ ‫ﺴﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺼل‬ ٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺼﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﻤﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٥ ، ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٢١ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﻜﻨﺩﺭﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠ ( . ) 15 ( . ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ‬ " (IPCC) ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻭﻓﻤﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ،‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻜﺭ‬ ، " ‫ﻏ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ " ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺸﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ " ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ،‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺼل‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ٧٨ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ،‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ،‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻨﻬﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻘﻠﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻼ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭﺕ‬ ) ١٩٨٣ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺨ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺩﻓﺌﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻕ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻤﻀﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺼﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺩﻴﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ،‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺎﺌﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ،‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺴﺘﺩﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺎﺘﻬﻡ‬ -‫ﺨﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﻌل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ -‫ﻴﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ .

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٧٩

  ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﻠﺤﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﺈﻤﻜﺎﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﺌل‬ ‫ﻁﺭﺡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ 


	‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ . ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ ، ٢٠١٥ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ‬ . ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ١١,٥ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ٣,٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻠﻭل‬ ٪ ٢٠٣٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ، ٢٠١١ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻤ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ، ١٢ ،٪ ١٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ٢٠٣٠ -‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻠﻴﺔ‬ . ٢ -‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ . ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ١ . ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ،‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ،‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻐﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﺭﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻠﺤﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻘﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﺎﻜل‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻤﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﺍﺭﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺍﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ،‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ،‬ ‫ﺴﻘﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﺭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٥ ٢٠١
	.	‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺫﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ‬ :	-	٤
	٢٠٣٠ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻌ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٣٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻤﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻭ‬ " ‫ﻭﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ، ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ " ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ‬ ."

٣ -‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻻﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ . 
‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٨٠ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻻ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻅﺎﻫﺭﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ :Climate Change

  ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺁﻻﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻨ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻴﻥ،‬ ‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﹸﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ،‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻅﺭﺍ‬ " ‫ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ّﺭ‬  ‫ﺘﻐﻴ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ّﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻡ‬ " (UNFCCC) ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ّﺭ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴ‬ " ‫ﻴﻌﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ّﺭ‬  ‫ﺘﻐﻴ‬ ‫ّﺭ‬  ‫ﺘﻐﻴ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﻔﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻼﺤﻅ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ " ‫ﻤﺘﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﺥ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ، ‫ّﺭ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴ‬ ّ  ‫ﻓﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋل‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ّﺔ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻟﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ 


	‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ،‬ ‫ّﺔ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴ‬ ‫ّﺭﺍﺕ‬  ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ،‬ ‫ﺴﻘﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ،‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ : ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻭﺭﻭﻓﻠﻭﺭﻭﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴﺘﺭﻭﺠﻴﻥ،‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺎﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻴﺜﺎﻥ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫‪‬ﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ّﺭ‬  ‫ﺘﻐﻴ‬ ) (GIEC ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭ‬ ": ‫ﻴﻤﻜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺸﻜﺎل‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ،‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻨﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻟﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻘﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ " ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻀﻴﻑ‬ ، ‫ﺍﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺠﻴﺎل‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ) ٤ ( . ‫ﺍﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ Global Warning : ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ٣٨٠ ‫ﺠﺯﺀﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ٢٧٥ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬  ‫ﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺃﻁﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻴﻨﻴﻭﺱ،‬ ‫ﺴﻔﺎﻨﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻴﺩﻱ،‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ " ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ١٨٩٦ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻡ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻁ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺙ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻀﺭﺍﺀ‬ " greenhouse gases " ‫ﺤﻘﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﻜﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ،‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻫﻡ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺯ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻴ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺨﻠﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺸﺠﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺎﺕ‬ ( ‫ﻴﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻵﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﻘﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴﺭﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﻜﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻭﺭﻭﻓﻠﻭﺭﻭﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺂﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺯﻭﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺯﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ‬ ) ٤ ( . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ : ) ١ ( ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﺎ‬ ، ١٩٧ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻓﺊ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ٠,١ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٪ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٩٧,١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل‬ ١٩٧,٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٣ . ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺭﺒﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ٤٠,٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘل‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ١٧,٦ ٪ ‫ﺒﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺔ‬ ١٦,٧ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ،٪

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٨١

  
	‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ٢,٣ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ) ٢٠١٢ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٥ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ،٪ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬ ٠,٥٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺘﻀﺭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬

‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻓﺊ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬

  
	‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٪ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬	) ١٩٩٠ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ -٢٠١٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻓﺊ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬	١ (	)	‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ١٩٩٠ / ١٩٩١

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻬ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ .

  
	‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ) ١ ‫ﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ( ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : ‫ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬ ١٩٩٠ / ١٩٩١ . ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻘﺎ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺸﻨﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ ١٩٩٩ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ٢٠٠٦ . ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺠ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﻬﺎﺯ‬ . ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ Climate changes Scenarios ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ : ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ (IPCC) ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﻔﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻪ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻴ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻟل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺌﺔ،‬ (IPCC) ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ، ) ٢ ( ‫ﻜﺎﻵﺘﻲ‬ ، : ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ :( ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ‬ ٠,١ -٠,٩ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻠﻭل‬ ٢١٠٠ ‫ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﻜﺩ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ١,٤ -٥,٨ ‫ﺒﺤﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ٢١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨ‬ ‫ﻷﺨﺭﻯ،‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ " ‫ﻟﻸﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻭﺍﺀ،‬ ‫ﻭﺨﻁ‬ " ‫ﻓﻴﻪ‬ . -‫ﺃﻜﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﺫﺭﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺸﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺸﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻁﻭل‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻀﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻴﻀﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺼﻔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻴﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : 1-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): "New Assessment Methods and the Characterization of Future Conditions", Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter draft IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report. Chapter draft, 2007 2-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): "The seven steps of the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to sea level rise -a common methodology" Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Response Strategies Working Group. Advisory Group on Assessing Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Zone Management, September 1991, Revision no.1.

  
	٢٠١	٥	‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬	-	‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٨٢ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬ : ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ :

  ‫ﺤـﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴـل،‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺸﺔ،‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻭﺍﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅـﺎﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘـﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗـﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺓ،‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ : 


	     ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎل‬ ‫ﺒﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻭﺍﻋﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺸﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻬﺠﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺸﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻕ‬ . ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﺭ‬ : ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺴﻜﻨﺩﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﺭ‬ ) ١٢ ،٪ ١٥ ٪ ( ‫ﺘﻔﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻐﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ،‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺍﺤل‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻴﺠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺫﻫﺎ‬ ) ١٠ ٪ -١٥ ٪ ( ‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻁﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺭﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ) ١٣ ( ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، (UNEP) ‫ﻟﺘﺄ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﺨﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺍﺤل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٠,٥ ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ :  ‫ﻨﻬـﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﻁﺎﺕ‬ .  ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺯﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻟﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﻜﻨﺩﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﹸ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٣ :(

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ( ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬

  ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﻠﻴﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﻤـﺴﺎﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﻤﺭ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻭﻏﺭﺍﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺨﺎﺼـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ،‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ 


	٢٠١٣ .	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ * ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ -‫ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ‬ . ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : ١ -‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺼﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﻀﻲ،‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٦,٠٧١ ٨,٤٠٠ ٢٠٣٠ ٢,٥٤٨ ٣,١٠٠ ٨,٦١٩ ١١,٥٠٠ ٨٠,٥٣ ١١١ ٠,١٠٧ ٠,١٠٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ،‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ٤,٤٧ ٢١,٦٦ ٣٣,٤٣ -) ٣,٧ ( ٢ -‫ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٢٠٣٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺭﺓ،‬ ، ٢٠٠٩ . ٣ -‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ،‬ .

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : 
‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٨٣ ‫ﻭﺒﺎ‬

  ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻭﻴﺱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﺸﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻏﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺭﻗﻌـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻠﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭ،‬ ‫ﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺔ،‬ 


	١,٩ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻌـﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﻻ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘـﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ٪ ‫ﻤﺼ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺼل‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ‬ ٢٠٣٠ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ١١١ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ١١,٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺭ،‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻠﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ٢٠٣٠ ‫ﻨﺤـﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ٨,٤ ‫ﻓـﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴـﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺼل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٣,١ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺯﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺼل‬ ١١,٥ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓـﺩﺍﻥ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴـﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ٣,٧ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻠـﻭل‬ ٪ ٢٠٣٠ ، ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ٢٠١١ ) ٩ ( . ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺒﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼـﻴل‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺸﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ،‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ، :

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٨٤ ‫ﺒ‬

  ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ١٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺎ‬ ٪ . ‫ﻭﻜﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻠﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺤﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻨﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻷﺼﻨﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﻌﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺠﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﻭﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﻱ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺘﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺘﻠ‬ ‫ﻴﺨﻔﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻨﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻙ‬ 


	٢٠١	٥	‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬	‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬	-	‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬	-	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬
	) ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺸﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ٦ ( ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺜﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ " ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺤﺭ،‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ (National action Plan for Combating Desertification) ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺌ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ،‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻠﻬ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﺭ،‬ ‫ﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻤﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﺭﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ) ١٠ ( . ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ :( ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺼﻴل‬ .

  
	‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ٪‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ٪‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺩﺍﻥ٪‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬	‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴـﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬

‫ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﻭﺍﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﻠﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ . ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬

  ‫ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻀﻐﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻌل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ . 


	‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ‬ ،٪ ١٦,١١ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٣ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٥ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ٤٣,٣٦ ٢٧,٢٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٣ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ، ) ٥ ( ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ، ١١٨٥ -٢٠٠٩ ( ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ،
	.(	‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ) ٥ :( ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠١٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ٪‬ ٢٤٢٥,٥٢ ٣٧٧٨,٥٩ ١٣٥٣,٠٧ ٥٥,٧٨ ٥٦٠٣,٧١ ١٤١٦٢,٦٢ ٨٥٥٨,٩١ ١٥٢,٧٤ ) ٣١٧٨,١٩ ( ) ١٠٣٨٤,٠٣ ( ) ٧٢٠٥,٨٤ ( ) ٢٢٦,٧٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ٤٣,٢٨ ٢٦,٦٨ ) ١٦,٦٠ ( -‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ٢١٩٤,٣١ ٣٦٤٩,٨٥ ١٤٥٥,٥٤ ٦٦,٣٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ٥٠٦٠,٣٤ ١٣٣٩٣,٢٦ ٨٣٣٢,٩٢ ١٦٤,٦٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ) ٢٨٦٦,٠٣ ( ) ٩٧٤٣,٤١ ( ) ٦٨٧٧,٣٨ ( ) ٢٣٩,٩٦ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ٤٣,٣٦ ٢٧,٢٥ ) ١٦,١١ ( -٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ -‫ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻡ‬
		١٥٣	٨ ١٦ ١٥ ٨ ١٤ ٢,٥ ١٠	٣١ ٪	( ( ( ( ( (	) ١٩ ) ١١ ) ٢٨ ) ٢٧ ) ٥٠ ) ٢٥ ٢٩	١٧	(	) ١٤	‫ﺍﻟﺫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻤﺎﻁﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻥ‬ -
	: ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﺯﺍ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ٣,١٧٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ) ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠٠٩ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ، ١٠,٣٨٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٣ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ٢٢٦,٧٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ٪ ) ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠٠٩ ( ‫ﻨﺤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ، ‫ﻭ‬ ٤٣,٢٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪ ) ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠٠٩ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ‬ ، ٢٦,٦٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٣ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ، ١٦,٦ ،٪ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٥ .( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ٢,٨٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ) ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠٠٩ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺎﺩل‬ ، ٩٣,٨ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ٦,٨٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٣ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻜل‬ ، ٩٠,٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ‬ ٢٣٩,٩٦ ‫ﻓ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ) ٢٠١٠ -٢٠١٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠٠٩ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ، ) ٢٠٠٥ -٢٠٠٩ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻗﻭﺍﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ .

  
	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٥ ٢٠١ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺨﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻫﻀﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ١١٨٦ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻜل‬ ٨٥ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺨﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٢٠ ‫ﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺍﻀﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻟﻜﺜﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﺩﺨﻭل‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ،‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ -‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀ‬ ٦٦ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪ ٢١٠٠ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٦ :( ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ . ٢٠٠٩ / ٢٠١٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ٢٠٣٠ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴ‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ل‬ ٥٥,٥ ٧٤,٤٠ ٥٧,٥ ٣,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ٩,٣ ١٢,٤٠ ٨,٥ ) ٨,٦ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ١,٧ ٢,٢٨ ٢,٠ ١٧,٦ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ‬ ١,٢ ١,٦٠ ٧ ٤٨٣,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺯﺍﻥ‬ ٦,٣ ٨,٥٢ ١٢,٩ ١٠٤,٨ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻁـﺎﺭ‬ ٠,٥ ٠,٨٠ ١,٥ ٢٠٠ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ٧٤,٥ ١٠٠,٠٠ ٨٩,٤ ٢٠ -‫ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﻭﺍﺱ‬
	) ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ٤ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ : ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬ ٢٠١٤ ‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻀﺢ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻴ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴـل‬ ‫ﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٥٥,٥ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٣ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ٦٦٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ) ‫ﻤﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺭ‬ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ٦٠,٣ ،٪ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻭﻏﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ٥٨٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ٢٠٢٥ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺸﺎﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ٦٦,٦ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٧٤,٥ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ،‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٣,٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ٢٠٠٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ٨٢,٦ ٪ ‫ﺍﻻﺴ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ،‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻐ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ٧٤,٥ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻌﺏ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻭﻏﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ، ٧٨,٩ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﻜﻤﻴ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻭﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ٠,٩ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ١,٣ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ٢٠١٢ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ، ٤٤,٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ٪ ٢٠٠٣ ‫ﺒﻠﻭﻏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ، ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻬﺎ‬ ١,٦ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٢٠١٧ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻥ‬ ، ١٥,٧ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺓ‬ ) ٢٠٠٣ -٢٠١٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻫﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﻘﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ،‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﺩ‬ ) ٦ .( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻤﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺫﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻌﺘﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﹶ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻘل‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﺯﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ،‬ ‫ﺴﻁﺢ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻟﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﺍل‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻀﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺤﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺠﻔﺎﻑ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺜﻴﻭﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺨﻴﺭ،‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻱ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬

  ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺭﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺫﺒﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺭﺒﺎﺌﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻠﺒﻴﺎ‬ :  ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺨﺭ،‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺯﻟﻲ‬ .  ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻘﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻤﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬ . 


	.	٢٠٠٩	( ‫ﺃﻏﺴﻁﺱ‬ ،	-٢٠١٧	) ٢٠٠٩
	‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺩﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻭﺜﺎﺕ‬	‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬ .	

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  ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻠﻐل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﻟﺘﺄ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ،‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ : ‫ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺭ،‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺘﺒﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺜﻴﻭﺒﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻀﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻤﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ٨٥ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻀﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ١٥ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ‬ ٧٦ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻓﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺼل‬ ،٪ ٣٠ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ،٪ ‫ﻫ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻷﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻭﺍﺭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﻩ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺘﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬ ٩ ‫ﻤﻜﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ . ‫ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل،‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻌﺎ‬ ٢٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺘﻰ‬ ٪ ٢٠٤٠ ‫ﻴﺘﻨﺒﺄ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ‬ ٢٠٤٥ ، ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻔﺎﻭﺘﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ . 


	" ) ١٤ (	Sentini	"	‫ﻟـ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬	
	" ) ١٦ (	" Strzepek		‫ﻟـ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬	

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ :


‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ :

-El-Raey M. ( 2000 

SUMMARY

Despite the fact that the phenomenon of global climate changes, but the local impacts, and it is expected that Egypt would be one of the countries most affected by the effects of climate change. These effects reflected in high temperatures, changing patterns of rainfall, rising sea levels, and the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters. Which poses risks to agriculture, land agricultural water supply, food security, cause problems and loss of agricultural economy is the likeness of the people. The problem of the research concentrated in the phenomenon of climate change, the reasons why they occur, and the impact of climate change on agricultural land and productivity of the most important agricultural crops water resources productivity agricultural worker productivity and various crops. As well as the 

‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ١١٩٦

expected scenarios effect of climate changes on the cultivated area in Egypt, therefore, aimed at Research Park on the expected impacts of climate change on the productivity of the agricultural land and the most important agricultural crops, water resources. as well as targeting research access to the best possible scenario of expectations of the impact of climatic changes of the cultivated area in year 2030. The most important research results in the following: expected to reach the total acreage to about 11.5 million acres. and thus average per capita land resources in Egypt by about 3.7% in year 2030, compared with that in 2011, the total amount of greenhouse gases in Egypt about 197 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in the year 2013/2014. and that there is a possibility of losing between 12% and 15% of the area of high-quality agricultural land in production In the Delta region will lose as a result of sinking or salinity with sea level rise by about half a meter away, the north coast of we find that the areas that must be taken into account. Covering an area of about 10-15% of the delta, and it expected that the climatic changes would affect negatively on the productivity of field crops. As well as the proportion of self-sufficiency, and economic effects of these changes in year 2030 to expect two scenarios: first. In the case of the probability of not sinking any parts of the delta. In addition, the second is in the case of potential sank 15% of Delta lands. 
The assumption of a steady crop intensification at 1.99, it is expected in the case of potential sank 15% of Delta lands in year 2030. The cultivated area will fall about 0.9 million acres, amend about 7.56% of the cultivated area in the case of the sinking of parts of the delta. Thus would be reduced crop area of about 1.406 million acres, drawn about by 6.25% of the crop area in the case of the sinking parts of the delta, in the case of expected water resources available at about 71.52 billion cubic meters. The available water resources will reduced by approximately 17.88 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 20% of the available water resources in the case of the sinking parts of the delta, in the case of expected resources available at about 80.4 billion cubic meters, will decline by about 9 billion cubic meters. Equivalent to about 10.07% of the available water resources in the case of the sinking parts of the delta, and thus expected in 2030 that affect climate changes on the cultivated are. Water Resources, and, as well as the effects of climate change on each of the productivity hit most crops. As well as working on agricultural productivity, the expected effects on each of the cultivated area, water resources available. It recommended that research several recommendations as follows: (1) to develop new types of high temperature, salinity and drought conditions that will prevail under conditions of climate change. In addition, to develop new types of short growth season to reduce water requirements necessary for it. as well as to change the dates for agriculture, including appropriate to weather conditions, as well as cultivation of new items in appropriate areas to the appropriate climate for increasing the yield of crop harvest water for each unit. (2) Reduce crop area of wasteful water consumption, such as rice, sugar cane. Alternative crops and give the same purpose and water consumption and lower growth such as the cultivation of sugar beet instead of sugar cane. (3) The use of irrigation systems more effectively and provide better protection of coastal areas and farms, in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. (4) The completion of the severe shortage of available data and information on the negative effects of climate change on different sectors of development in Egypt. ( 5) Attention regionalization studies where can know the ways in which to overcome, or at least alleviate the shortage in crop productivity adversely affected by this phenomenon.
‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ . ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﻓﻭﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺴﻠﻴﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻁﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﺤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ،‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬