‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ٩٠٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎل‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻴﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ -‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ _ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬


) ٣ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺇﺘﻀﺢ‬ ، ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ١٩٥ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٥,٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ٠,٨٧ . - ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ - ٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ٤٣٢ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ، ٧٦١ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٦١٧ ‫ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ١٧ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ٢,٨ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٦١٧ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢ :( ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ - ٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ R 2 ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ T ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ٪‬ ١ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٦٠,٧ + ١,٤ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,٩٤ ٧٤ ) ١٧ **( ١,٩ ٢ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٤٥٩٠ + ١٥٧ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,٨٠ ٦٠٨٣ ) ٨,٥ **( ٢,٦ ٣ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١٩٨٠ + ١٩٥ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,٨٧ ٣٨٣٤ ) ١١ **( ٥ ٤ ‫ﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٤٥٣ + ١٧ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,٨٠ ٦١٧ ) ٨,٢ **( ٢,٨ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : ‫ﺹ‬ = ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ = ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١ ، ٢ ، ٣ ، ....
‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ( ٢٠٠١ ١٦٩٦ ٢٥٨ ١٥ ٥٠٦٢٢ ١٩٦ ٢٠٠٢ ١٨٠٩ ١٢٧ ٧ ٢٦٥٤١ ٢٠٩ ٢٠٠٣ ١٧٦٨ ١٦٦ ٩ ٣٨٩١٣ ٢٣٤ ٢٠٠٤ ١٨٥٠ ٢٢٢ ١٢ ٦٦٤٥٥ ٢٩٩ ٢٠٠٥ ١٩٤٠ ٢١٤ ١١ ٧٤٩٢٢ ٣٥٠ ٢٠٠٦ ٢١٢٠ ٢٨٣ ١٣ ٦٥٠٨٣ ٢٣٠ ٢٠٠٧ ٢٠٥٥ ٢٧١ ١٣ ٩٨٣٧٧ ٣٦٣ ٢٠٠٨ ٢١٣٨ ٦٣٨ ٣٠ ٣٨١٥٥٩ ٥٩٨ ٢٠٠٩ ٢٣٧٢ ٨٢٢ ٣٥ ٤٩٥٠٠٤ ٦٠٢ ٢٠١٠ ٢٤٠١ ٨٢١ ٣٤ ٤٩٠٩٣٣ ٥٩٨ ٢٠١١ ٢٥٧٨ ١٠٤٢ ٤٠ ٥٣٧٩٢٦ ٥١٦ ٢٠١٢ ٢٧٨٦ ١٣٢٢ ٤٧ ٤٥٣٧٧١ ٣٤٣ ٢٠١٣ ٢٨٥٥ ١١٠٨ ٣٩ ٤٩٠٨١٧ ٤٤٣ ٢٠١٤ ٣١٣٦ ٨٧٧ ٢٨ ٤٧٢٣٨٥ ٥٣٨ ٢٠١٥ ٣٣٥١ ١٣٥٣ ٤٠ ٤٦٣٩٣٧ ٣٤٣ ٢٠١٦ ٢٩٣٩ ١٣٣٨ ٤٦ ٤٩٥٠٦٦ ٣٧٠ ٢٠١٧ ٣١٤٨ ١٣٦٣ ٤٣ ٥٤٧٠٧٦ ٤٠١ ٢٠١٨ ٣٠٨٦ ١٦٠٢ ٥٢ ٦٦٢١٠٥ ٤١٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٢٤٤٦ ٧٦٨ ٢٤ ٣٢٨٤١٦ ٣٩٢ *
‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ 2 R ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ T ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ٪ ١ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١٥٠١ + ٩٩ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,٩٣ ) ١٤,٨ **( ٢٤٤٦ ٤ ٢ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = - ٨٧,٥ + ٩٠,٠٨ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,٨٩ ) ١١,٩ **( ٧٦٨ ١٢ ٣ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = - ٣٧,٣ + ٣٨,٥ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,٨١ ) ٨,٥ **( ٣٢٨,٤ ١٢ ٤ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ٢٧٧ + ١٢ ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ٠,١٨ ) ٢,٢ ( ٣٩٢ ٣ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : ‫ﺹ‬ = ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ = ‫ﻫـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻫـ‬ = ١ ، ٢ ، ٣ ، ....
٪ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﻌ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ٢٧٨ ٢١ ٩٥ ١٧,٩ ‫ﺍﻷﺘﺤﺎﺩﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﻪ‬ ٢٤٢ ١٩ ١٠٢ ١٩,٣ ‫ﻫﻭﻟﻨﺩﺍ‬ ١٠١ ٨ ٣٩ ٧,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ٨٤ ٦ ٣٤ ٦,٤ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬ ٦٢ ٥ ٢٣ ٤,٣ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﻼﺩﻴﺵ‬ ٥٣ ٤ ٢٣ ٤,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ‬ ٤٥ ٣ ١٦ ٣ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ٤٤٢ ٣٤ ١٩٨ ٣٧,٥ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ١٣٠٧ ١٠٠
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ٢٠٠١ ٧٨٠ ٧٦٠ ١٠٣ ٣,٩٨ ٢٠٠٢ ٩٤٥ ٩٣٠ ١٠٢ ٤,٥٢ ٢٠٠٣ ١٣٩٧ ١٠٦٠ ١٣٢ ٥,٩٧ ٢٠٠٤ ٢٧٥٤ ١٢٣٠ ٢٢٤ ٩,٢١ ٢٠٠٥ ٢٠٢٧ ١٢٣٠ ١٦٥ ٥,٧٩ ٢٠٠٦ ١٣٢٣ ١٢٤٠ ١٠٧ ٥,٧٥ ٢٠٠٧ ٢٠٤٧ ١٥٥٠ ١٣٢ ٥,٦٤ ٢٠٠٨ ٣٢٥٩ ١٣٠١ ٢٥٠ ٥,٤٥ ٢٠٠٩ ٣٣٤٧ ٢٣٦٠ ١٤٢ ٥,٥٦ ٢٠١٠ ٣٣٨٥ ٢٦١٠ ١٣٠ ٥,٦٦ ٢٠١١ ٣٠٨١ ٢٦٦٠ ١١٦ ٥,٩٧ ٢٠١٢ ٣١٢١ ٣٢١٠ ٩٧ ٩,١٠ ٢٠١٣ ٣٠٥٢ ٣٥٦٠ ٨٦ ٦,٨٩ ٢٠١٤ ٣٨١٤ ٢٩٢٠ ١٣١ ٧,٠٩ ٢٠١٥ ٢٦٢٤ ٣٠٠٠ ٨٧ ٧,٦٥ ٢٠١٦ ٣٧٧٤ ٦٥٤٠ ٥٨ ١٠,٢٠ ٢٠١٧ ٧١٤٢ ٤٢٢٠ ١٦٩ ١٧,٨١ ٢٠١٨ 

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ (Trade Map List of exporters)

  ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ . 


	‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ) ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ( ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٩٠٩ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ١ ( : ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ٧٣٧٦٣ ٦٠٨٣ ٣٨٣٤ ٦١٧

.......... ١٨ ** ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ :

  
	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ --‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ٢٠٢١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ٩١٠ ‫ﺭﺓ‬ ٢٠٠١ ) -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ، ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ١٢٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ١٦٠٢ ‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٧٦٨ ‫ﻹﺠﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٩٠ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ١٢,٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ .( -‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ : ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٪ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ، ٥٢ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٪ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ‬ ، ) ٢٠٠١ -٨٧ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٤ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ٪ ‫ﻜ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗل‬ ‫ﻻﺯﺍﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺔ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٣ :( ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ١ ( ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢ ( ) ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) ٢ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ) ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﻟﻑ‬ (
	.(	) ١	‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬
	‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ -‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ١,٧ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٣,٤ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٥ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ، ٢,٤ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ) ١ ( ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ٩٩ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ،‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٤,٠ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺒﺘﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ٠,٩٣ .

‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺩﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ :

  
	‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ٩١١ ٢٠١٨ --( ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻀﺤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ، ‫ﺃﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻨﻰ‬ ١٩٦ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ٢٠٠١ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ٦٠٢ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٩٢ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ / ‫ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬ ) ٤ ( ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺘﺜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٤ :( ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ (
	‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ITC calculations based on UN COMTRADE and ITC statistics ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ ) FAO (	) ١ ( ) ٢ ( ) ٣ (
	-‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ : ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ) ٣ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ٢٦,٥ ‫ﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ٢٠٠٢ ‫ﻭﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬ ٦٦٢,١ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ٢٠١٨ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٢٨,٤ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺍ‬ ٣٨,٥ ‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﹰ،‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻌﺩل‬ ١٢ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ .

.......... ١٨ ** ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ٠,٠١ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ :

  
	٩١٢ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬	‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ -‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﺤﻭﺫ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﺒﻠﻎ‬ ٣٩ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ٢٠٢١ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٥ :( ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠١٤ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬
		(	) ٣	‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬
	‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼ‬ ‫ﺭﻱ‬ ) ٥ ( ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ٧ ‫ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ) ٢٠١٤ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ، ‫ﻤﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﻭﻋﺏ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﻼﺩﻴﺵ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ،‬ ‫ﻫﻭﻟﻨﺩﺍ،‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٦٥ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻭﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل،‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ٦٢,٥ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ١٣٢٩ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٥٢٨ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ . ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ٢٧٨ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬ ٢١ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠١٤ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ، ) ‫ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ،‬ ‫ﻫﻭﻟﻨﺩﺍ،‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﻼﺩﻴﺵ،‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ،‬ ( ‫ﺇﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ " ٢٤٢ ، ١٠١ ، ٨٤ ، ٦٢ ، ٥٣ ، ٤٥ " ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻑ‬ " ١٩ ،٪ ٨ ،٪ ٦ ،٪ ٥ ،٪ ٤ ،٪ ٣ ٪ " ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ . ‫ﻗﻴ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ١٠٢ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ١٩,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ٪ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ) ٢٠١٤ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ، ) ‫ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ،‬ ‫ﻫﻭﻟﻨﺩﺍ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺠﻼﺩﻴﺵ،‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ،‬ ( ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ " ٩٥ ، ٣٩ ، ٣٤ ، ٢٣ ، ٢٣ ، ١٦ " ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ " ١٧,٧ ،٪ ٧,٣ ،٪ ٦,٤ ،٪ ٤,٣ ،٪ ٤,٣ ،٪ ٣,٠ ٪ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ .

٥٣٠ ١٠٠ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ : ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ : ١ - ‫ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ٢ - ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ www.trademap.org

  ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻴﻌﺎﺩﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻭﻴل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻰ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ١٠٠ ‫ﻓﻬﺫ‬ ٪ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ،‬ ١٠٠ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻯ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻨﻪ‬ ٪ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ،‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ 


	‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ،‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ٩١٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻠﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ١٢٥ ،٪ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺸﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ٢١,٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ،٪ . ‫ﺠﺩﻭ‬ ‫ل‬ ) ٦ :( ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ) ١ ( ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ) ٢ ( ) ‫ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﻁﻥ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ * ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬
				‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ) ٢ (	‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌﺎ‬ :
	‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺭ‬	‫ﺴﻌ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬	‫ﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬	‫ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ . ‫ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ :
	‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺭﺼﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﺭﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻭﻡ‬ ) ‫ﻓﻭﺏ‬ ( ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺘﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﺸﻤل‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ،‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﺎﻨ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺩﺭﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻨﻭﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺎﺕ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬ ) ٦ ( ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﺘﺴﻤﺕ‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ، ٥٨ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ٪ ٢٠١٦ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻁﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻨﻅﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻘل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ٢٥٠ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ٪ ٢٠٠٨ . ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ٢٥٠ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﻀل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ،٪

‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ www.comtrade.com ٢ - ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺭﺓ‬ . ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﻤﺴﺎ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬

  ‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺩل‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ، ‫ﺒﻘﺒﻭل‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ . 


	٩١٤	٢٠٢١	‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬	‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ -‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ : A : ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ -‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ -i B : i ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ C : i ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ D : i ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ E : ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﺔ‬ i
	( ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ،	‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ) ( ٧
	٧٣٩٣ ٣٠٥٢ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬ * : : ١ -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ٤٩٠٠ ١٥١ ٢٥١٦ ١٢٥ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻗﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ١٧,٩٠ ٧,٧٩ ) ٢٠١٤ -٢٠١٨ ( ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ . ١ -‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ) ٥ ( : ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل،‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺩل‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ،‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻨﺼﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ،‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻭل‬ ) ٧ :( ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ) ٢٠٠١ -٢٠١٨ ) ( ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ) B ( ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ) C ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ) D ( ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ) E ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ) A ( ( ٢٠٠١ ٥١ ٥٣٠ ١٨٥٨ ٤١٤٣٢٩ ٢١,٤٦ ٢٠٠٢ ٢٧ ٦٧١ ٢١٨٤ ٤٤٢٦٢٥ ٨,١٦ ٢٠٠٣ ٣٩ ٧٧٧ ٢٥٠٦ ٥٢٥٠٧٢ ١٠,٥٢ ٢٠٠٤ ٦٦ ١١٠٤ ٢٧٧٥ ٦٠٧٣٣٣ ١٣,٠٨ ٢٠٠٥ ٧٥ ٩١٨ ٢٦٠٤ ٦٥٣٨٣٩ ٢٠,٥١ ٢٠٠٦ ٦٥ ٨٥٥ ٢٨١٦ ٧٢١٨٢٥ ١٩,٤٩ ٢٠٠٧ ٩٨ ١٢٠٣ ٣٢٢٤ ٨٧٣٧٩٦ ٢٢,٠٨ ٢٠٠٨ ٣٨٢ ٢٠٩١ ٤٠٣٧ ١٠٦٣٠٥ ٤ . ٨١ ٢٠٠٩ ٤٩٥ ٢٩٦٦ ٤١٢٥ ٩٥٠٢٢٦ ٣٨,٤٤ ٢٠١٠ ٤٩١ ٣١٣٤ ٤٥٨٥ ١٠٨٠٠٤ ٣,٦٩ ٢٠١١ ٥٣٨ ٣٠٢٤ ٤٧٥٥ ١٣١٣٩٤ ٤,٩٢ ٢٠١٢ ٤٥٤ ٢٦٨٣ ٤٦٦٥ ١١٨٣١٣ ٤,٢٩ ٢٠١٣ ٤٩١ ٢٨٦٧ ٥٠١١ ١٢١٥٧٢ ٤,١٥ ٢٠١٤ ٤٧٢ ٢٩٥٥ ٤٤٦٩ ١٥٠٦٨٩ ٥,٣٩ ٢٠١٥ ٤٦٤ ٢٨٥٣ ٤٤٣٦ ١٨١٢٤٩ ٦,٦٥ ٢٠١٦ ٤٩٥ ٢٦٩٦ ٤٦٠٩ ١٤١٧٦٣ ٥,٦٥ ٢٠١٧ ٥٤٧ ٢٨٠١ ٥٠١٧ ١٦١٥٠٦ ٦,٢٩ ٢٠١٨ ٦٦٢ ٢٧٩١ ٥٣٣١ ١٧١٣٧٧ ٧,٦٣ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ٣٢٨ ٢٠٥١ ٣٨٣٤ ٣٦٥٦٢٣ ١٥,٢٥
				i A 	i i (D (B	/E /C	i i	) )

Summary

The research dealt with the study of the competitive position of Egyptian oranges in foreign markets, as despite the increase in the volume of Egyptian production of oranges, the volume of exports does not correspond to the increase in the quantity of production, as only about 24% of the production is exported, so the indicators of the competitiveness of Egyptian oranges in the markets were estimated. The following results were obtained: 
Egyptian orange production increased by a statistically significant amount of about 99 thousand tons, and that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the main market for Egyptian oranges, as it accounts for approximately 69%. 
The annual average of the export efficiency amounted to about 125%, which indicates an export efficiency of the Egyptian orange crop 
The market share of the Egyptian orange in the markets of Saudi Arabia, Russia, the Emirates, England and the Netherlands amounted to about 69%, 53%, 37%, 22%, 20%, respectively. 
The penetration rate of Egyptian oranges in Saudi market is very high compared to competing markets in Saudi market, reaching about 0.764. 
Egypt enjoys a high competitive advantage in Saudi, Russian and UAE markets, and its decline in the markets of England and Holland Recommendations -It is necessary to take into account the export prices of competing countries, especially in the Dutch and English market, in which both the market share and the rate of market penetration are low, as there is an opportunity to expand in increasing Egyptian exports of oranges to these countries. -Improving the competitive conditions of Egyptian exports of oranges to Saudi and Russian market, to maintain Egypt's share in those markets. Keywords : Export Efficiency -Relative Comparative Advantage (RCA) -Market Share -Market Penetration Ratio.
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ٩٠٧ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ / ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎل‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻴﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ -‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ _ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯ‬