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is Y = { “seen” , “not seen” } . For computation, we use the numerical assignments x = 1 for “alive”, x = 0 for “dead”, y = 1 for “seen”, and y = 0 for “not seen”. 

The model is parameterized by annual probability of survival, φ , and probability of detection, p , which are assumed to be constant among all sampling occasions and individuals. 

This reflects the most basic Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure (Jolly, 1965; Seber, 1965), typically denoted as φ ( . ) p ( . ) to imply constant probabilities of survival and detection ( e.g. , Nichols and Pollock, 1983). The hierarchical model specification is given below, which is a realization of the general structure provided in (1), where i assumes all values in 1 , . . . , n . 

## 3.2 Orchid Model 

<img src='content_image/297688.jpg'>

Our second example models sighting histories of the showy lady’s slipper ( Cypripedium regi- nae ), a flowering variety of orchid which is native to north America. Here, the concept of “capture” has been generalized to observational sightings. One cannot observe these orchids with certainty due to a dormant state, in which the orchid is alive but not observable. 

The Orchid model data consist of observational sighting histories of n = 250 unique flow- ers, collected over k = 11 annual observational periods. There are four latent states, X = { “vegetative” , “flowering” , “dormant” , “dead” } , but only three distinct observable states, Y = { “seen vegetative” , “seen flowering” , “not seen” } as we cannot distinguish between dor- mant and deceased flowers. The presence of multiple distinct observable states (in addition to “not seen”) classifies this as multistate capture-recapture. The full dataset is available in 

