The impairment test process requires valuation of the respective reporting unit, which we primarily determine using an income approach based on a discounted five year forecasted cash flow with a year-five residual value. The residual value is computed using the constant growth method, which values the forecasted cash flows in perpetuity. The income approach is supported by a reconciliation of our calculated fair value for Caterpillar to the company’s market capitalization. The assumptions about future cash flows and growth rates are based on each reporting unit's long-term forecast and are subject to review and approval by senior management. A reporting unit’s discount rate is a risk-adjusted weighted average cost of capital, which we believe approximates the rate from a market participant’s perspective. The estimated fair value could be impacted by changes in market conditions, interest rates, growth rates, tax rates, costs, pricing and capital expenditures. The fair value determination is categorized as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy due to its use of internal projections and unobservable measurement inputs. 

Our annual impairment tests completed in the fourth quarter of 2019 indicated the fair value of each reporting unit was substantially above its respective carrying value, including goodwill. Caterpillar’s market capitalization has remained significantly above the net book value of the Company. 

An unfavorable change in our expectations for the financial performance of our reporting units, particularly long-term growth and profitability, would reduce the fair value of our reporting units. The demand for our equipment and related parts is highly cyclical and significantly impacted by commodity prices, although the impact may vary by reporting unit. The energy and mining industries are major users of our products, including the coal, iron ore, gold, copper, oil and natural gas industries. Decisions to purchase our products are dependent upon the performance of those industries, which in turn are dependent in part on commodity prices. Lower commodity prices or industry specific circumstances that have a negative impact to the valuation assumptions may reduce the fair value of our reporting units. Should such events occur and it becomes more likely than not that a reporting unit’s fair value has fallen below its carrying value, we will perform an interim goodwill impairment test(s), in addition to the annual impairment test. Future impairment tests may result in a goodwill impairment, depending on the outcome of the quantitative impairment test. A goodwill impairment would be reported as a non-cash charge to earnings. 

Warranty liability  – At the time a sale is recognized, we record estimated future warranty costs. The warranty liability is determined by applying historical claim rate experience to the current field population and dealer inventory. Generally, historical claim rates are based on actual warranty experience for each product by machine model/engine size by customer or dealer location (inside or outside North America). Specific rates are developed for each product shipment month and are updated monthly based on actual warranty claim experience. Warranty costs may differ from those estimated if actual claim rates are higher or lower than our historical rates. 

Product liability and insurance loss reserve  – We determine these reserves based upon reported claims in process of settlement and actuarial estimates for losses incurred but not reported. Loss reserves, including incurred but not reported reserves, are based on estimates and ultimate settlements may vary significantly from such estimates due to increased claims frequency or severity over historical levels. 

Postretirement benefits  – We sponsor defined benefit pension plans and/or other postretirement benefit plans (retirement healthcare and life insurance) to employees in many of our locations throughout the world. There are assumptions used in the accounting for these defined benefit plans that include discount rate, expected return on plan assets, expected rate of compensation increase, the future health care trend rate, mortality and other economic and demographic assumptions. The actuarial assumptions we use may change or differ significantly from actual results, which may result in a material impact to our consolidated financial statements. 

The effects of actual results differing from our assumptions and the effects of changing assumptions are considered actuarial gains or losses. We utilize a mark-to-market approach in recognizing actuarial gains or losses immediately through earnings upon the annual remeasurement in the fourth quarter, or on an interim basis as triggering events warrant remeasurement. 

Primary actuarial assumptions were determined as follows: 

• The assumed discount rate is used to discount future benefit obligations back to today’s dollars. The U.S. discount rate is based on a benefit cash flow-matching approach and represents the rate at which our benefit obligations could effectively be settled as of our measurement date, December 31. The benefit cash flow-matching approach involves analyzing Caterpillar’s projected cash flows against a high quality bond yield curve, calculated using a wide population of corporate Aa bonds available on the measurement date. A similar approach is used to determine the assumed discount rate for our most significant non-U.S. plans. In estimating the service and interest cost components of net periodic benefit cost, we utilize a full yield curve approach in determining a discount rate. This approach applies the specific spot rates along the yield curve used in the determination of the benefit obligation to the relevant projected cash flows. 

