Conversely, areas with above-average levels of cycling and many long-distance hilly commuter routes will experience less than a doubling. 

• Gender Equality. This scenario illustrates the increase in cycling that would result if women were as likely as men to cycle a given trip. Specifically, the scenario sets the proportion of female cycle commuters to be equal to the current proportion of males in each OD pair. The scenario is based on the observation that in places where cycling accounts for a high proportion of personal travel, women cycle at least as much as men (Aldred et al., 2016; Pucher et al., 2010). This scenario has the greatest relative impact in areas where the rate of cycling is highly gender-unequal. 

• Go Dutch. While the Government Target and Gender equality scenarios model relatively modest increases in cycle commuting, Go Dutch represents what would happen if English people were as likely as Dutch people to cycle a trip of a given distance and level of hilliness. This scenario thereby captures the proportion of commuters that would be expected to cycle if all areas of England had the same infrastructure and cycling culture as the Netherlands (but retained their hilliness and commute distance patterns). This scenario was generated by taking baseline propensity to cycle (see previous section), and applying Dutch scaling factors — parameters which increase the proportion of trips cycled above the baseline level of cycling per OD pair. These scaling factors were calculated through analysis of the British and Dutch National Travel Surveys. We parameterised the scaling factors as one fixed parameter (the main effect) plus one distance-dependent parameter (parametrised as an interaction between Dutch status and trip distance), to take into account the fact that the “Dutch multiplier” is greater for shorter trips compared to longer trips. Note that the scenario level of cycling under Go Dutch is not affected by the current level of cycling, but is instead purely a function of the distance and hilliness of each OD pair — i.e. the two characteristics that determine baseline propensity to cycle. 

