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Copper stocks in the LME, Shanghai and COMEX warehouses increased 8% or 45,000 tonnes during the year. Total reported global stocks (which include producer, consumer, merchant and terminal stocks) stood at an estimated 24 days of global consumption versus the 25-year average of 28 days of global consumption. 

Production disruptions continued to affect the market in 2012, with estimates of close to 0.9 million tonnes of planned production lost during the year. Total copper mine production increased by only 3.8% in 2012, which was well below the estimated 10.1% increase projected at the beginning of the year. Wood Mackenzie, a commodity research consultancy, is expecting a 12% increase in global mine production in 2013 as new mining projects begin to ramp up; at the same time, Wood Mackenzie is also expecting an 11% increase in smelter production. Based on a history of industry production shortfalls over the past eight years combined with the continuing difficulties in bringing new production to market on time, we continue to expect unplanned production disruptions through 2013. We therefore expect smelter capacity utilization to remain under pressure in 2013, with the concentrate market remaining in deficit. 

With global copper metal demand projected by Wood Mackenzie to increase by 5.0% in 2013, projected supply is expected to exceed demand slightly, moving the refined market into balance. If mine production continues to disappoint in 2013 from current projections, the refined market could again slip into deficit in 2013. 

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