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## UNDERWRITING RISK 

AEGON’s earnings depend significantly upon the extent to which actual claims experience differs from the assumptions used in setting the prices for products and establishing the technical liabilities and liabilities for claims. To the extent that actual claims experience is less favorable than the underlying assumptions used in establishing such liabilities, income would be reduced. Furthermore, if these higher claims were part of a permanent trend, AEGON may be required to increase liabilities, which could reduce income. In addition, certain acquisition costs related to the sale of new policies and the purchase of policies already in force have been recorded as assets on the balance sheet and are being amortized into income over time. If the assumptions relating to the future profitability of these policies (such as future claims, investment income and expenses) are not realized, the amortization of these costs could be accelerated and may even require write offs due to unrecoverability. This could have a materially adverse effect on AEGON’s business, results of operations and financial condition. 

Sources of underwriting risk include policy lapses and policy claims (such as mortality and morbidity). In general, AEGON is at risk if policy lapses increase as sometimes AEGON is unable to fully recover up front expenses in selling a product despite the presence of commission recoveries or surrender charges and fees. For mortality and morbidity risk, AEGON sells certain types of policies that are at risk if mortality or morbidity increases, such as term life insurance and accident insurance, and sells certain types of policies that are at risk if mortality 

decreases (longevity risk) such as annuity products. AEGON is also at risk if expenses are higher than assumed by management. 

AEGON monitors and manages its underwriting risk by underwriting risk type. Attribution analysis is performed on earnings and reserve movements in order to understand the source of any material variation in actual results from what was expected. AEGON’s units also perform experience studies for underwriting risk assumptions, comparing AEGON’s experience to industry experience as well as combining AEGON’s experience and industry experience based on the depth of the history of each source to AEGON’s underwriting assumptions. Where policy charges are flexible in products, AEGON uses these analyses as the basis for modifying these charges, with a view to maintain a balance between policyholder and shareholder interests. AEGON also has the ability to reduce expense levels over time, thus mitigating unfavorable expense variation. 

Sensitivity analysis of net income and shareholders’ equity to various underwriting risks is shown in the table that follows. The sensitivities represent an increase or decrease of mortality and morbidity rates over best estimate. Increases in mortality rates lead to an increase in the level of benefits and claims. The impact on net income and shareholders’ equity of sales transactions of investments required to meet the higher cash outflow is reflected in the sensitivities. 

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A change in actual experience with mortality or morbidity rates may not lead to a change in the assumptions underlying the measurement of the insurance liabilities as management may recognize that the change is temporary. Life insurers are also exposed to longevity risk. Increased life expectation above our assumed life expectation at the time of underwriting negatively impacts our results. Refer to note 2.19 for a discussion on how longevity assumptions are accounted for. 

On March 1, 2011 the European Court of Justice (ECJ) delivered a judgment in the Test Achats case which relates to the ability of an insurance company to use gender as a rating factor when pricing risk. The ECJ has ruled that using gender as a rating factor when pricing risk is invalid. However, the ECJ has granted a transitional period for relief for implementation. The effect of this is that, as from December 21, 2012, it will be unlawful to use gender-related factors for determining premiums and benefits 

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