## NOTE 3  CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES AND JUDGMENT IN APPLYING ACCOUNTING POLICIES 

Application of the accounting policies in the preparation of the financial statements requires management to apply judgment involving assumptions and estimates concerning future results or other developments, including the likelihood, timing or amount of future transactions or events. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those estimates. Accounting policies that are critical to the financial statement presentation and that require complex estimates or significant judgment are described in the following sections. 

## Valuation of assets and liabilities arising from life insurance contracts 

The liability for life insurance contracts with guaranteed or fixed account terms is either based on current assumptions or on the assumptions established at inception of the contract, reflecting the best estimates at the time increased with a margin for adverse deviation. All contracts are subject to liability adequacy testing which reflects management’s current estimates of future cash flows. To the extent that the liability is based on current assumptions, a change in assumptions will have an immediate impact on the income statement. Also, if a change in assumption results in the failure of the liability adequacy test, the entire deficiency is recognized in the income statement. To the extent that the failure relates to unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale investments, the additional liability is recognized in the revaluation reserve in equity. 

Some insurance contracts without a guaranteed or fixed contract term contain guaranteed minimum benefits. Depending on the nature of the guarantee, it may either be bifurcated and presented as a derivative or be reflected in the value of the insurance liability in accordance with local accounting principles. Given the dynamic and complex nature of these guarantees, stochastic techniques under a variety of market return scenarios are often used for measurement purposes. Such models require management to make numerous estimates based on historical experience and market expectations. Changes in these estimates will immediately affect the income statement. 

In addition, certain acquisition costs related to the sale of new policies and the purchase of policies already in force are recorded as DPAC and VOBA assets respectively and are amortized to the income statement over time. If the assumptions relating to the future profitability of these policies are not realized, the amortization of these costs could be accelerated and may even require write offs due to unrecoverability. 

## Actuarial assumptions 

The main assumptions used in measuring DPAC, VOBA and the liabilities for life insurance contracts with fixed or guaranteed terms relate to mortality, morbidity, investment return and future expenses. Depending on local accounting principles, surrender rates may be considered. 

Mortality tables applied are generally developed based on a blend of company experience and industry wide studies, taking into consideration product characteristics, own risk selection criteria, target market and past experience. Mortality experience is monitored through regular studies, the results of which are fed into the pricing cycle for new products and reflected in the liability calculation when appropriate. For contracts insuring survivorship, allowance may be made for further longevity improvements. Morbidity assumptions are based on own claims severity and frequency experience, adjusted where appropriate for industry information. 

Investment assumptions are either prescribed by the local regulator or based on management’s future expectations. In the latter case, the anticipated future investment returns are set by management on a countrywide basis, considering available market information and economic indicators. A significant assumption related to estimated gross profits on variable annuities and variable life insurance products in the United States and some of the smaller country units, is the annual long-term growth rate of the underlying assets. As equity markets do not move in a systematic manner, assumptions as to the long-term growth rate are made after considering the effects of short-term variances from the long- term assumptions (a reversion to the mean assumption) and the effects of hedging. The reconsideration of this assumption may affect the original DPAC or VOBA amortization schedule, referred to as DPAC or VOBA unlocking. The difference between the original DPAC or VOBA amortization schedule and the revised schedule, which is based on estimates of actual and future gross profits, is recognized in the income statement as an expense or a benefit in the period of determination. 

Estimated gross profits on variable life and variable annuity products in the Americas include a short- and long term equity market return assumption. As of the second quarter of 2010, AEGON held its short-term equity market return assumption equal to its long-term assumption at 9%, reflecting continued volatility experienced in equity markets and the use of macro equity hedges. 

