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ambitious. The choice of scenarios was informed by a government target to double the number of cycle trips and evidence from overseas about which trips could be made by cycling. Summaries of the four scenarios are as follows (see the Appendix for full details): 

• Government Target. This scenario represents a doubling of the level of cycling, in line with the government’s target to double the number of ‘stages’ (trips of a single mode) cycled by 2025 (Department for Transport, 2014). Although substantial in relative terms, the rate of cycling under this scenario (rising from 3% to 6% of English commuters) remains low compared with countries such as the Netherlands and Denmark. This scenario was generated by adding together a) the observed number of cyclists in each OD pair in the 2011 Census, and b) the modelled number of cyclists, as estimated using the baseline propensity to cycle equations described in the previous section. The result is that cycling overall doubles at the national level, but at the local level this growth is not uniform, in absolute or relative terms. Areas with many short, flat trips and a below-average current rate of cycling are projected to more than double. 

