Harboring doubts about the accuracy of polling, the three Iowa economists came up with their path-breaking concept by extending the economic theory that regards market prices as manifestations of "collective consciousness." It was the first time that the economic model of commodity futures markets was used as a blueprint for creating an exchange to predict election outcomes.
當質疑「民調不準」之餘，這 3 名經濟學者也突發奇，想嘗試用經濟學中解釋市場價格的理論，套用至「群體意識」的形成上，這個以期貨市場交易模式為藍本的選舉預測市場，也於焉而生。