Most observers of the 2002 elections believe that in the past the DPP could count on the firm support of 30-40 % of grassroots voters, but they are watching with keen interest to see whether this support base will be as solid this time round, following the transfer of central government power to the DPP and the political upheavals of the last two years.
評析二○○二年選情，一般認為，過去民進黨在基層一向擁有三、四成鐵票，但經過政黨輪替的洗滌和近兩年的政治震盪，鐵票能否依然鞏固如山，將是觀察指標之一。