Either case would spark a constitutional crisis. Alexander Lu agrees that a Chen victory could lead to inter-branch conflict. But he does not see Taiwan independence as the main flashpoint. The critical issues will instead be those related to "black gold politics," such as stock trading taxes, which directly affect the interests of certain legislators.
呂亞力也認為陳水扁當選可能引起行政與立法間的衝突，但他看到的衝突點卻不是民進黨的台獨傾向，而是黑金政治上，如證交稅等，可能關乎一些立委利益的法案。