At its peak, the price for that contract exceeded NT $ 90 (meaning that it had an expected probability of over 90 %). The prices for the other contracts, meanwhile, were stuck in the single digits. Eventually, 89,000 mainland tourists-or 244 per day-came by the end of the year. Once again "the people" had beaten "the experts!"
結果沒想到「10 萬人以下」的合約價格，從 8 月開始就一路飆漲，最高曾升至 90 元以上（表示有 90 % 的發生機率），但其他合約的價格則在個位數徘徊，最後答案揭曉── 2008 年陸客來台觀光總數僅 8 萬 9,000 人（平均一天 244 人），「鄉民」大勝「專家」！