fw : csfb independent power weekly ; ipps rose 5 % last week ; 7 % private market value discount remains
- - - - - original message - - - - -
from : stein , neil [ mailto : neil . stein @ csfb . com ]
sent : monday , november 19 , 2001 6 : 14 am
to : undisclosed - recipients
subject : csfb independent power weekly ; ipps rose 5 % last week ;
7 % private market value discount remains
>
good morning ,
attached , please find the latest issue of our independent power weekly .
summary :
1 . ipps rise 5 . 0 % last week our ipp composite rose 5 . 0 % , outperforming the
s & p 500 ( + 1 . 6 % ) and the nasdaq ( + 3 . 8 % ) . aes corp ( aes ) , which was up 22 . 2 % ,
was the strongest generator in the group followed by reliant resources ( rri )
which rose 11 . 0 % . orion power ( orn ) was the weakest performer , rising 1 . 2 % .
2 . generation oriented utilities fall 2 . 8 % our universe of
generation - oriented utilities fell 2 . 8 % , in - line with the uty ( - 2 . 5 % ) .
black hills ( bkh ) , cleco ( cnl ) and constellation energy ( ceg ) all rose less
than 1 % . allegheny energy was the weakest performer , down 7 . 6 % .
3 . ene / dyn + attractive valuations boost stock prices last week was the
3 rd consecutive week of positive stock price performance for the group .
driving stock prices higher , investors continued to grow more comfortable
with the enron situation following confirmation of dynegy ' s intention to
acquire enron and provide immediate liquidity support by investing $ 1 . 5
billion . further , we believe the group simply remains oversold . the pure
play power producers are trading at a 7 % average discount to their private
market asset values .
4 . notes from mirant meeting mirant hosted an upbeat analyst meeting last
tuesday . mir reiterated that 80 % of its 2002 forecast is supported by
earnings from hedged ( generation and natural gas ) and franchise businesses
( distribution ) . mir also provided an in - depth review of how it accounts for
its risk management activities . management noted that it could maintain its
credit rating without any new equity issuance over the next 12 months .
however , it would be eager to access the equity market should conditions
improve in the near - term .
5 . power market update last week the us power markets were generally weak
across the country owing to mild weather and falling natural gas prices .
while the mirant national power index fell 17 . 1 % last week , the natural gas
week composite spot price fell 23 . 2 % . spark spreads improved in the
northeast and texas , while compressing in california and the southeast .
6 . debt market update credit spreads tightened across the sector last week
due to diminished ene concerns and positive stock price performance .
regards ,
neil stein 212 / 325 - 4217
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