[[Well, easiest thing first. Jermayan; You're completely correct about the CMB. However, Alizome was built to have a much higher escape artist check than CMB (+17 vs. +10, normally), and I was using that the whole time. After being enlarged, it was a +16 Escape Artist check vs. a +11 CMB check, so I kept using that and despite size increase upping CMB, it hindered Alizome's ability to escape. Now! The math, and I will freely admit I could be wildly wrong since the VSRD rules aren't the most clearly written beasts ever. They're good, but not super-great.<br/><br/>As I understand it, the relevant conditions:<br/>Alizome's escape artist roll is +17, and her CMD is 21<br/>Xarces' CMB roll is +14 and his CMB is 23. Further, Alizome will average 6 damage each turn she can't escape.<br/><br/>So! Starting in the stomach, to avoid getting caught in infinite loops, let's just calculate two chances; the chance of her getting digested for a round, and the chance of her escaping in two rounds (i.e. she escapes, CMB roll to re-swallow fails.) Technically IIRC Xarces doesn't need to make any rolls once Alizome has the Swallowed(Full) condition to deal digestion damage (you only need to continue the grapple roll normally when Swallowed(Partial)?) but since including that would raise Alizome's odds we'll ignore it.<br/><br/>So! Alizome normally needs a 6 or higher to get out of the stomach. That is, a 5 or less keeps her in, so she has a 25% chance of taking digestion damage.<br/>To escape, she needs both a 6 or higher on her Escape Artist roll (75% odds) *and* for Xarces to roll a 7 or lower on his CMB roll (35% odds); that is, the odds of her escaping as quickly as possible are 26.25%. Put another way, every time she gets in the stomach, she has slightly better than 50-50 odds of getting out before taking more digestion damage; that's a slight simplification but I don't really feel like calculating Markov chains at 6 AM! (Xarces and I probably both forgot bonuses, but those are the actual dice we were rolling, so anything forgotten to either of our benefit it doesn't much matter!) Given that I needed to be digested about 5 times before passing out, I put my odds of having Alizome digested fairly low given all of the above.<br/><br/>'course, that's mechanics, and that matters less than what I actually wanted. I wouldn't say I<span style="font-style: italic">want</span>Alizome to die and bring in a new character, per se. I also wouldn't say I want Alizome to not digest. I can see Fun Stuff both down the "Alizome escapes" hallway and "Alizome digests, I bring in a new character in a bit and play that" hallway! I was comfortable enough with both options that I was cheerfully willing to toss her in a hungry stomach and let the blind god RNG decide her fate. Which is what happened, yeah? See, the thing is, I like being a pred, I like being a prey, but what I don't really like is being a prey without any risk attached. Or really doing anything in a game if there's not a real risk of Bad Consequences. I wouldn't have asked anyone to wait up for me and Xarces, however much they may enjoy the writing or not, if I knew 100% going in Alizome was going to escape. I only let it string out because of the risk she would go from elf to food. If it legit bothers other PCs enough that someone else is uncomfortable enough to leave the game, I don't object to Alizome surviving this, but I probably will be done doing preyish scenes in this game with any kind of enthusiasm if I know going in that actually losing won't... matter. Which, that's also fine, since I like being a pred too, I'll just have no reason to have Alizome continue to be as prey-oriented as she is. Probably would end up removing her sooner or later because of that (she's, um, really not built to pred) but that's still not necessarily a bad thing! I dunno. I don't want to drive anyone else out of the game, I just wanted to have a fun long scene with Xarces and put a fun character at risk of permadeath knowing that I had a backup.]]