### Comment:
You have to see how terrible your math is. This isn't even closes to the right way to do this. 
  
 You need to at least start with the asset you are looking at and get the actual day up and down numbers then run an analysis on that. Fucking average daily return. What are we in 2nd grade? 
  


### REPLY:
Honestly I think I agree with you... but also what he's saying kinda makes sense?  
  
 I think I'm gonna run a VaR Monte Carlo when I get home, I'll post here with results if I get around to it.

### END.