### Comment:
A lagging indicator of an incoming recession... Did you mean a leading indicator?

### REPLY:
I'm saying that by the time consumer spending slows down we'll already be in a recession (hence, lag) - therefore using it as a gauge for whether a recession is coming is useless. But no, I don't think it's necessarily a leading indicator of anything, though I do feel it has gotten out of hand and will make the recession uglier than it needs to be.

### END.