Risk/return analysis:

 at $40k, upside 2.5x, risk 50%, return/risk=5
 at $30k, upside 3.3x, risk 33%, return/risk=10

If you wait for confirmation (like ), you may pay higher price($50k), upside 2x, but return/risk beats adding at $40k as long as downside is &gt;$30k