  We shall apply a generalized SEIR model to study the outbreak of COVID-19 in
Brazil. In particular, we would like to explain the projections of the increase
in the level of infection over a long period of time, overlapping large local
outbreaks in the most populous states in the country. A time-dependent dynamic
SEIR model inspired in a model previously used during the outbreak in China was
used to analyses the time trajectories of infected, recovered, and deaths. The
model has parameters that vary with time and are fitted considering a nonlinear
least-squares method. The simulations starting from April 8, 2020, concluded
that the time for a peak in Brazil will be in July 21, 2020 with total
cumulative infected cases around 982K people; in addition, an estimated total
death case will reach to 192K in the end. Besides that, Brazil will reach a
peak in terms of daily new infected cases and death cases around the middle of
July with 50K cases of infected and almost 6.0K daily deaths.

Populations and Evolution;Physics and Society