  The main idea of this paper is to use the notion of buffered failure
probability from probabilistic structural design, to introduce buffered
environmental contours. Classical environmental contours are used in structural
design in order to obtain upper bounds on the failure probabilities of a large
class of designs. The purpose of buffered failure probabilities is the same.
However, in constrast to classical environmental contours, this new concept
does not just take into account failure vs. functioning, but also to which
extent the system is failing. For example, this is relevant when considering
the risk of flooding: We are not just interested in knowing whether a river has
flooded. The damages caused by the flooding greatly depends on how much the
water has risen above the standard level.

Applications