  The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an
outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus,
then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the
restrictions and the spreading of epidemics may decline. Over time, some people
get tired/frustrated by the restrictions and stop following them (exhaustion),
especially if the number of new cases drops down. After resting for a while,
they can follow the restrictions again. But during this pause the second wave
can come and become even stronger then the first one. Studies based on SIR
models do not predict the observed quick exit from the first wave of epidemics.
Social dynamics should be considered. The appearance of the second wave also
depends on social factors. Many generalizations of the SIR model have been
developed that take into account the weakening of immunity over time, the
evolution of the virus, vaccination and other medical and biological details.
However, these more sophisticated models do not explain the apparent
differences in outbreak profiles between countries with different intrinsic
socio-cultural features. In our work, a system of models of the COVID-19
pandemic is proposed, combining the dynamics of social stress with classical
epidemic models. Social stress is described by the tools of sociophysics. The
combination of a dynamic SIR-type model with the classical triad of stages of
the general adaptation syndrome, alarm-resistance-exhaustion, makes it possible
to describe with high accuracy the available statistical data for 13 countries.
The sets of kinetic constants corresponding to optimal fit of model to data
were found. They characterize the ability of society to mobilize efforts
against epidemics and maintain this concentration over time, and can further
help in the development of strategies specific to a particular society.

Physics and Society;Populations and Evolution