  The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first
reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature,
countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control
its spread. Since the earliest stages of this major pandemic, academics have
done a huge amount of research in order to understand the disease, develop
medication, vaccines and tests, and model its spread. Among these studies, a
great deal of effort has been invested in the estimation of epidemic parameters
in the early stage, for the countries affected by Covid-19, hence to predict
the course of the epidemic but the variability of the controls over the course
of the epidemic complicated the modeling processes. In this article, the
determination of the basic reproduction number, the mean duration of the
infectious period, the estimation of the timing of the peak of the epidemic
wave is discussed using early phase data. Daily case reports and daily
fatalities for ten countries over the period January 22, 2020 - April 18, 2020
are evaluated using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. For each
country, the SIR models fitting cumulative infective case data within 5% error
are analysed. It is observed that the basic reproduction number and the mean
duration of the infectious period can be estimated only in cases where the
spread of the epidemic is over (for China and South Korea in the present case).
Nevertheless, it is shown that the timing of the maximum and timings of the
inflection points of the proportion of infected individuals can be robustly
estimated from the normalized data. The validation of the estimates by
comparing the predictions with actual data has shown that the predictions were
realised for all countries except USA, as long as lock-down measures were
retained.

Populations and Evolution;Quantitative Methods