  Kepler is a space telescope that searches Sun-like stars for planets. Its
major goal is to determine {\eta}_Earth, the fraction of Sunlike stars that
have planets like Earth. When a planet 'transits' or moves in front of a star,
Kepler can measure the concomitant dimming of the starlight. From analysis of
the first four months of those measurements for over 150,000 stars, Kepler's
science team has determined sizes, surface temperatures, orbit sizes and
periods for over a thousand new planet candidates. In this paper, we
characterize the period probability distribution function of the super-Earth
and Neptune planet candidates with periods up to 132 days, and find three
distinct period regimes. For candidates with periods below 3 days the density
increases sharply with increasing period; for periods between 3 and 30 days the
density rises more gradually with increasing period, and for periods longer
than 30 days, the density drops gradually with increasing period. We estimate
that 1% to 3% of stars like the Sun are expected to have Earth analog planets,
based on the Kepler data release of Feb 2011. This estimate of is based on
extrapolation from a fiducial subsample of the Kepler planet candidates that we
chose to be nominally 'complete' (i.e., no missed detections) to the realm of
the Earth-like planets, by means of simple power law models. The accuracy of
the extrapolation will improve as more data from the Kepler mission is folded
in. Accurate knowledge of {\eta}_Earth is essential for the planning of future
missions that will image and take spectra of Earthlike planets. Our result that
Earths are relatively scarce means that a substantial effort will be needed to
identify suitable target stars prior to these future missions.

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics;Solar and Stellar Astrophysics