  We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of
multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for
constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional
probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of
precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting multilevel alarm system
and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for
different earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information.
'Forecasting' and 'prediction' of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.

Geophysics