  This work studies the problem of batch off-policy evaluation for
Reinforcement Learning in partially observable environments. Off-policy
evaluation under partial observability is inherently prone to bias, with risk
of arbitrarily large errors. We define the problem of off-policy evaluation for
Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) and establish what we
believe is the first off-policy evaluation result for POMDPs. In addition, we
formulate a model in which observed and unobserved variables are decoupled into
two dynamic processes, called a Decoupled POMDP. We show how off-policy
evaluation can be performed under this new model, mitigating estimation errors
inherent to general POMDPs. We demonstrate the pitfalls of off-policy
evaluation in POMDPs using a well-known off-policy method, Importance Sampling,
and compare it with our result on synthetic medical data.

Machine Learning;Artificial Intelligence;Systems and Control;Systems and Control;Machine Learning