  We discuss the potential use of an algebraic method to compute the value of
the solar axial dipole moment at solar minimum, widely considered to be the
most reliable precursor of the activity level in the next solar cycle. The
method consists of summing up the ultimate contributions of individual active
regions to the solar axial dipole moment \revtwo{at the end of the cycle}. A
potential limitation of the approach is its dependence on the underlying
surface flux transport (SFT) model details. We demonstrate by both analytical
and numerical methods that the factor relating the initial and ultimate dipole
moment contributions of an active region displays a Gaussian dependence on
latitude with parameters that only depend on details of the SFT model through
the parameter $\eta/\Delta_u$ where $\eta$ is supergranular diffusivity and
$\Delta_u$ is the divergence of the meridional flow on the equator. In a
comparison with cycles simulated in the 2$\times$2D dynamo model we further
demonstrate that the inaccuracies associated with the algebraic method are
minor and the method may be able to reproduce the dipole moment values in a
large majority of cycles.

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics