  We study the transport properties of nonautonomous chaotic dynamical systems
over a finite time duration. We are particularly interested in those regions
that remain coherent and relatively non-dispersive over finite periods of time,
despite the chaotic nature of the system. We develop a novel probabilistic
methodology based upon transfer operators that automatically detects maximally
coherent sets. The approach is very simple to implement, requiring only
singular vector computations of a matrix of transitions induced by the
dynamics. We illustrate our new methodology on an idealized stratospheric flow
and in two and three dimensional analyses of European Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data.

Dynamical Systems