  Spurred by the emerging blockchain technology and increased interest in
tokenization, this forecasting research built on extensive literature and
aggregated expertise to explore the potential implementation of
blockchain-enabled tokenization in infrastructure investment and development.
The Delphi-based scenario analysis approach was applied to gather long-term
forecasts and assessments of a research panel consisting of 39 experts in
blockchain tokenization and infrastructure development on how tokenization will
influence the future of infrastructure finance and identify scenarios of
potential applications and impact. International experts were segregated into
two groups salient to this topical area based on both experience ad
self-identification: infrastructure development and blockchain tokenization.
Twenty-three projections for 2035, developed from a literature review, case
study analysis, and expert interviews, concerning perspectives of both the
supply and demand side for the adoption of blockchain tokenization, were
assessed in a two-round Delphi analysis. Regulatory, economic, social, and
technological perspectives of tokenization were taken into consideration.
Assessments were based on both probability and impact of occurrence. Three
groups of scenarios resulted from quantitative and qualitative analysis,
reflecting agreement and differentiation between both expert groups. The
results of this study clearly underlined the potential of tokenization in
infrastructure. Uncertainties and barriers confronting the technologies'
diffusion were discussed. This study contributes to the transfer of general
technical-driven blockchain-enabled tokenization knowledge to
infrastructure-specific tokenization knowledge. Long-term strategic planning is
supported by this study with the scenario data acting as a starting point for
blockchain-related efforts in infrastructure development.

Computers and Society