  Using multi-scale ideas from wavelet analysis, we extend singular-spectrum
analysis (SSA) to the study of nonstationary time series of length $N$ whose
intermittency can give rise to the divergence of their variance. SSA relies on
the construction of the lag-covariance matrix C on M lagged copies of the time
series over a fixed window width W to detect the regular part of the
variability in that window in terms of the minimal number of oscillatory
components; here W = M Dt, with Dt the time step. The proposed multi-scale SSA
is a local SSA analysis within a moving window of width M <= W <= N.
Multi-scale SSA varies W, while keeping a fixed W/M ratio, and uses the
eigenvectors of the corresponding lag-covariance matrix C_M as a data-adaptive
wavelets; successive eigenvectors of C_M correspond approximately to successive
derivatives of the first mother wavelet in standard wavelet analysis.
Multi-scale SSA thus solves objectively the delicate problem of optimizing the
analyzing wavelet in the time-frequency domain, by a suitable localization of
the signal's covariance matrix. We present several examples of application to
synthetic signals with fractal or power-law behavior which mimic selected
features of certain climatic and geophysical time series. A real application is
to the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) monthly values for 1933-1996. Our
methodology highlights an abrupt periodicity shift in the SOI near 1960. This
abrupt shift between 4 and 3 years supports the Devil's staircase scenario for
the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon.

Chaotic Dynamics;Statistical Mechanics;Chaotic Dynamics