  Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from
1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in
Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths
only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that
the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of
626 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male/female ratio is estimated to be 1.7
times. As a reference for comparison, for the whole period 2020-2020 Mexico's
INEGI estimated an excess of mortality between 673,000 with a quasi-Poisson
model and 808,000 using endemic channels estimation.

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