  An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a
complex evolving system has important implications in an array of areas. Here
we propose a generative probabilistic framework using a reinforced Poisson
process to model explicitly the process through which individual items gain
their popularity. This model distinguishes itself from existing models via its
capability of modeling the arrival process of popularity and its remarkable
power at predicting the popularity of individual items. It possesses the
flexibility of applying Bayesian treatment to further improve the predictive
power using a conjugate prior. Extensive experiments on a longitudinal citation
dataset demonstrate that this model consistently outperforms existing
popularity prediction methods.

Social and Information Networks;Physics and Society