  Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we
describe the importance of inertia to continued growth in energy consumption.
Drawing from thermodynamic arguments, and using 38 years of available
statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a persistent time-independent scaling
between the historical time integral $W$ of world inflation-adjusted economic
production $Y$, or $W\left(t\right) = \int_0^t Y\left(t'\right)dt'$, and
current rates of world primary energy consumption $\mathcal E$, such that
$\lambda = \mathcal{E}/W = 5.9\pm0.1$ Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars.
This empirical result implies that population expansion is a symptom rather
than a cause of the current exponential rise in $\mathcal E$ and carbon dioxide
emissions $C$, and that it is past innovation of economic production efficiency
$Y/\mathcal{E}$ that has been the primary driver of growth, at predicted rates
that agree well with data. Options for stabilizing $C$ are then limited to
rapid decarbonization of $\mathcal E$ through sustained implementation of over
one Gigawatt of renewable or nuclear power capacity per day. Alternatively,
assuming continued reliance on fossil fuels, civilization could shift to a
steady-state economy that devotes economic production exclusively to
maintenance rather than expansion. If this were instituted immediately,
continual energy consumption would still be required, so atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations would not balance natural sinks until concentrations
exceeded 500 ppmv, and double pre-industrial levels if the steady-state was
attained by 2030.

General Economics;Physics and Society;Economics