  We explore the potential of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNNs) for
emulating cloud superparameterization in realistic geography, using offline
fits to data from the Super Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model. To
identify the network architecture of greatest skill, we formally optimize
hyperparameters using ~250 trials. Our DNN explains over 70 percent of the
temporal variance at the 15-minute sampling scale throughout the mid-to-upper
troposphere. Autocorrelation timescale analysis compared against DNN skill
suggests the less good fit in the tropical, marine boundary layer is driven by
neural network difficulty emulating fast, stochastic signals in convection.
However, spectral analysis in the temporal domain indicates skillful emulation
of signals on diurnal to synoptic scales. A close look at the diurnal cycle
reveals correct emulation of land-sea contrasts and vertical structure in the
heating and moistening fields, but some distortion of precipitation.
Sensitivity tests targeting precipitation skill reveal complementary effects of
adding positive constraints vs. hyperparameter tuning, motivating the use of
both in the future. A first attempt to force an offline land model with DNN
emulated atmospheric fields produces reassuring results further supporting
neural network emulation viability in real-geography settings. Overall, the fit
skill is competitive with recent attempts by sophisticated Residual and
Convolutional Neural Network architectures trained on added information,
including memory of past states. Our results confirm the parameterizability of
superparameterized convection with continents through machine learning and we
highlight advantages of casting this problem locally in space and time for
accurate emulation and hopefully quick implementation of hybrid climate models.

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics