  This paper investigates the fairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying
competition via Monte Carlo simulations. The qualifying probabilities are
calculated for 102 nations, all teams except for African and European
countries. A method is proposed to quantify the degree of unfairness. Although
the qualifications within four FIFA confederations are constructed fairly,
serious differences are found between the continents: for instance, a South
American team could have tripled its chances by playing in Asia. Choosing a
fixed matchup in the inter-continental play-offs instead of the current random
draw can reduce the unfairness of the competition. The move of Australia from
the Oceanian to the Asian zone is shown to increase its probability of
participating in the 2018 FIFA World Cup by about 65%. Our results provide
important insights for the administrators on how to reallocate the qualifying
berths.

Physics and Society