IMF maintains 2024 global growth forecast
The IMF held its global growth expectations for 2024 steady in a report on Tuesday even as it cut forecasts for the United States and Japan, while warning of inflation risks and trade tensions ahead. The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow 3.2 percent this year, unchanged from its April forecast, according to its World Economic Outlook update. "Global activity and world trade firmed up at the turn of the year, with trade spurred by strong exports from Asia, particularly in the technology sector," said the fund. For 2025, it expects global growth of 3.3 percent. But even as many countries saw better growth than anticipated in the first three months this year, the IMF flagged what it called notable surprises in Japan and the United States. The Washington-based lender also cautioned that upside risks to inflation have increased, with services prices holding up disinflation. This increases the prospect of interest rates staying elevated for longer, "in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty." An area of concern is trade and industrial policy, with countries potentially adopting measures that impact the global economy's integration, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Asked if risk assessments have shifted after the attempted assassination of former US president Donald Trump, the Republican Party's nominee in November's election, Gourinchas noted the fund will consider its implications. (AFP)