'Iran strikes to boost oil, but maybe not for long'
Iran's attack on Israel has injected fresh anxiety into oil markets already roiled by regional tensions, but analysts stress that it is unclear if a durable price spike is imminent. Saturday's overnight drone and missile barrage was Iran's first-ever direct assault on Israeli territory. Tehran says it was triggered by the April 1 air strike on its consulate building in the Syrian capital that was widely blamed on Israel. The Iranian mission to the United Nations warned on X of "considerably more severe" actions should Israel "make another mistake," raising the prospect of intensifying violence in the days ahead. Oil prices had already jumped in the build-up to the Iranian attack, with benchmark Brent North Sea Crude closing on Friday at US$90.45 per barrel. Prices are expected to climb further when markets reopen on Monday, perhaps as high as US$95 per barrel, though it is too soon to say whether they will stay elevated, said Kuwaiti oil expert Kamel al-Harami. "The picture is not clear about the future. We do not know if and how Israel will respond and whether Iran will also resort to stopping oil supplies as a response," he said. The Islamic republic was the world's seventh-largest crude producer in 2022, and has the third-largest proven oil reserves behind Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, according to the United States Energy Information Administration. Iran also has a range of ways to wreak havoc with markets, including disrupting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pressuring countries such as Iraq to cut supply, Harami said. "There are several scenarios... The fear is that Iran will stop exporting oil or attack oil facilities," Harami said. (AFP)