What is the estimated shortfall of polyethylene capacity for the company in the near term 
 short by about 9 million metric tons during that time frame.
And in the near term, with these GDP growth rates, things are going to be tight. So we're looking at growth. I mentioned to Jeff's question earlier a 600 kt expansion on polyethylene, that's in the cards. Incremental expansions on ethylene, those are in the cards.
We're doing work on our own FCDh technology and our EDH technology in the Gulf to try to have low carbon moves forward. I think one of the things that has to be resolved before you see a next wave of announcements is what are the policies going to be in the United States around carbon, carbon border adjustment mechanisms, carbon tax, perhaps a voluntary emissions trading scheme. And we have to know what those are. We have to know how China is going to play on the global footprint.
And we have to see how Europe is moving forward. All of those have to be resolved before we can see what the right place is to make that next step. But we're working on projects, and we're looking for the right opportunity.
Operator
Our next question comes from Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Alex Yefremov -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst
Thank you. Jim, just to continue on the subject, you mentioned that the price of carbon in Europe is currently not high enough to really provide incentive to implement these technologies. As this price rises and Europe implements the tax to help domestic industry sort of absorb these higher carbon prices, do you think that ultimately amount to something neutral for Dow Chemical? Because having capacity in Europe you will directly or indirectly benefit from these import taxes.
Jim Fitterling -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Aleksey. I think it can be done. And I've said before and I'll continue to say it, we need to have a real constructive and open dialogue about how much it costs to do this. I think, idealistically, everybody is in agreement that we want to make improvements and we want to reduce carbon emissions and we want to get to net zero.
But nobody's yet, at a government level or any level, having the educated discussion that we need to have about the cost of doing this. What will happen in Europe is Europe has -- the way the emissions trading game works in Europe is they have price for carbon, but they also have allowances for energy -- for emissions emitters. And if you're under your allowances, you can trade those carbon credits. What they will do over time is they will ratchet back the allowances and they'll start to put everybody over their allowances and that will start to drive the prices up and that will drive the incentives to make the conversion.
So Europe is less concerned right now with what the cost is to everybody and more concerned with trying to drive that number up and drive the conversion. And we're in the middle there trying to talk to them realistically about what the price is to do this, what the technologies are today, and scale up the ones that we think are the most cost-effective going forward, blue hydrogen, carbon capture to be able to do that. So I think as we work through that over the next two or three years, we'll start to make some progress to that. And I would say all heavy industry and the power and utility sector are taking a look at this, but with eyes wide open that it's not free.
And the other thing to remember on hydrogen, is as you move to a hydrogen economy, the most effective way to make most of that hydrogen is through steam methane reforming which uses natural gas, which means you're going to need a lot more natural gas production to make that hydrogen. And that's one of the other discussions that is difficult to get on the table right now.
Operator
Our next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Yes. Thank you. So, Jim, you're really leading this initiative on net zero. I mean, you're the -- you're clearly one of the few that have a net greenhouse gas emission target for 2050.
I'm curious to hear your view as to what's driving that. I me
 short by about 9 million metric tons during that time frame.
And in the near term, with these GDP growth rates, things are going to be tight. So we're looking at growth. I mentioned to Jeff's question earlier a 600 kt expansion on polyethylene, that's in the cards. Incremental expansions on ethylene, those are in the cards.
We're doing work on our own FCDh technology and our EDH technology in the Gulf to try to have low carbon moves forward. I think one of the things that has to be resolved before you see a next wave of announcements is what are the policies going to be in the United States around carbon, carbon border adjustment mechanisms, carbon tax, perhaps a voluntary emissions trading scheme. And we have to know what those are. We have to know how China is going to play on the global footprint.
And we have to see how Europe is moving forward. All of those have to be resolved before we can see what the right place is to make that next step. But we're working on projects, and we're looking for the right opportunity.
Operator
Our next question comes from Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Alex Yefremov -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst
Thank you. Jim, just to continue on the subject, you mentioned that the price of carbon in Europe is currently not high enough to really provide incentive to implement these technologies. As this price rises and Europe implements the tax to help domestic industry sort of absorb these higher carbon prices, do you think that ultimately amount to something neutral for Dow Chemical? Because having capacity in Europe you will directly or indirectly benefit from these import taxes.
Jim Fitterling -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Aleksey. I think it can be done. And I've said before and I'll continue to say it, we need to have a real constructive and open dialogue about how much it costs to do this. I think, idealistically, everybody is in agreement that we want to make improvements and we want to reduce carbon emissions and we want to get to net zero.
 But nobody's yet, at a government level or any level, having the educated discussion that we need to have about the cost of doing this. What will happen in Europe is Europe has -- the way the emissions trading game works in Europe is they have price for carbon, but they also have allowances for energy -- for emissions emitters. And if you're under your allowances, you can trade those carbon credits. What they will do over time is they will ratchet back the allowances and they'll start to put everybody over their allowances and that will start to drive the prices up and that will drive the incentives to make the conversion.
So Europe is less concerned right now with what the cost is to everybody and more concerned with trying to drive that number up and drive the conversion. And we're in the middle there trying to talk to them realistically about what the price is to do this, what the technologies are today, and scale up the ones that we think are the most cost-effective going forward, blue hydrogen, carbon capture to be able to do that. So I think as we work through that over the next two or three years, we'll start to make some progress to that. And I would say all heavy industry and the power and utility sector are taking a look at this, but with eyes wide open that it's not free.
And the other thing to remember on hydrogen, is as you move to a hydrogen economy, the most effective way to make most of that hydrogen is through steam methane reforming which uses natural gas, which means you're going to need a lot more natural gas production to make that hydrogen. And that's one of the other discussions that is difficult to get on the table right now.
Operator
Our next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Yes. Thank you. So, Jim, you're really leading this initiative on net zero. I mean, you're the -- you're clearly one of the few that have a net greenhouse gas emission target for 2050.
I'm curious to hear your view as to what's driving that. I me