>

I’d give him maybe a 15% chance, but Kunce taking down Hawley in Missouri would be absolutely brilliant.
If the GOP tries to touch social security they will certainly keep it. They may still if the GOP primaries play out the way they have. >

Don’t forget if the GOP keeps trying to ban abortion and it was literally the first thing they did as soon as Kevin became speaker >

This would be a big issue in a midterm but not a presidential election year. >

Why? Total abortion bans or 6-week abortion bans that no one wants aren’t going away anytime soon barring courts striking those laws down. Why would they die down as an issue? >

It's kinda sad but it'll mostly be in the rearview mirror by 24, and most people will subconsciously accept it as the new status quo. Not to say it won't hurt Republican odds, but it likely won't be nearly as big a factor as it was with the 2022 midterms. >

People are going to church every sunday and hearing about abortion stops a beating heart or whatever but if you're on the left it's entirely on you to self motivate and stay mad about this shit forever.
It's no wonder they do pretty well despite being on the less popular side of so many issues. >

the good thing is less and less people are going to church. Exactly because of this crap. >

Virginia is pretty happy with Kaine. He’s visible around the state and is overall an easy candidate. I don’t see him being at risk. Northern Virginia would have to see a lot of erosion to oust him. Youngkin has done nothing to appeal to moderates. If Spanberger had lost her seat, I’d be more concerned, but a lot of her purple areas will go for Kaine as well. McAuliffe was a uniquely terrible candidate and we all knew it. >

I think Kaine will easily win. VA is a blue state in federal elections . State elections don’t correspond to federal elections. Youngkin’s win was probably due to a Biden backlash. >

I think it was a lot more due to nobody wanting McAuliffe back plus he ran the most half ass campaign imaginable. He just assumed he’d get the votes. Meanwhile, Youngkin was making the rounds pretending to be a moderate. >

and Youngkin would never win in Virginia statewide in a post-Dobbs/Roe overturn environment. His win was just great timing. >

Too early to tell really. Everyone thought the Republicans would have a red wave last year but they nearly came close to having a red flop. All I know is that it’s gonna be a tough battle for Democrats, especially if Republicans run better candidates than they did in the most recent elections. >

That's basically asking the Republicans to not be who they are >

I doubt it just off the map but I don't think it'll be as big a bloodbath as people seem to automatically assume. No matter how much many seem to have a desire and hope Republicans "moderate" or come to the middle, the truth is Republicans are doing a very poor job of making themselves electorable to the median public (i.e. going overboard on social conservative stances that no one but their fringe, very religious base wants) and it'll catch up to them fully at some point.
I think Republicans will likely win control of the Senate, but it'll be 51-49 or at most 52-48 margin. Like they'll for sure win West Virginia and likely at least one of Ohio and Montana, but I would not rule out Brown and/or Tester holding on. Both are incredibly strong incumbents in red states, and Biden outperforming typical trends in Ohio to only lose by 6 or so would be enough for Brown to hold on. Ditto for Tester with differing margins. 
Pennsylvania (Casey), Wisconsin (Baldwin), Michigan (Stabenow but she is retiring though Dems have a strong bench there), Minnesota (Klobuchar), Virginia (Kaine) I can't see Republicans winning. Arizona (Sinema but Gallego will challenge for Democrats) Republicans can flip in a perfect world, but people don't realize how bat-shit the Arizona Republicans have become and how many right-leaning moderates have turned Democrats there. They are more likely to nominate a unpalatable candidate like a Kari Lake over a Doug Ducey, and if they do that, they'll lose. 
Meanwhile, I think we're looking ripe for Democrats to win control of the House again and take a bigger majority than what they had post-2020. Nothing the Republicans in the House are doing, from their sham of a leadership election to openly trashing moderating on social stances like on abortion will help them in House races come 2024. They've also gerrymandered themselves to the fullest. >

I agree with this assessment. Maybe it’s because I’m tired of doom and gloom headlines (plus Dems proved that we can beat the typical narratives) but at the very least we’ll lose Joe Manchin’s seat but only if he doesn’t run again. 
I think Joe Manchin is annoying as hell, but, for some reason his methods work in his state and he manages to win in a Trump 40+ state. Which is why I’m not as annoyed with him as I am with Kirsten Sinema because it seems like everyone in her state hates her 
People fucking hate the modern GOP and are even getting tired of Trump’s bullshit. 2 years of Republican nonsense in the House won’t help it. >

I think that the moment Sinema left the Democratic Party, senate control in 2024 shifted to the GOP. AZ will go to the GOP as Sinema will siphon enough votes from the Democrats. That means that Dems cannot afford to lose any more seats . That is unlikely as they will lose at least one more seat, probably Ohio. >

I disagree. I think Manchin would lose before Brown does. Polling came out for Senators from the last year recently, and Manchin’s underwater by about 12 points (after being up 15, but his support for the Inflation Reduction Act changed that). Brown is moderately popular, and Ohio has been a swing state until quite recently as well. >

I wasn’t aware of the extent of Brown’s support in Ohio despite it being a Red state. I think Tester will lose in MT and AZ flips to GOP. So I think the senate will be GOP regardless. WV looks difficult for Manchin. 52-48 GOP is likely. >

Tester has only gotten MORE popular (a new poll just came out where he’s at 60% approval) and the leading candidates in MT to take him on are awful. Testers already won in MT on a presidential year, he’s been there since 2007 >

I think a lot will depend on how the republican house conducts itself over the next few years. I feel the American public is craving stability and if inflation reduces and a sense of normalcy returns I can't see people opting for republican chaos. >

I partly agree. I think the Democrats will likely win the presidency and the House of Representatives in 2024 but the Senate works differently. I think Senate control comes down to Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. In the presidential election, the GOP will carry them easily. This has a coattail effect of helping the GOP senate candidate to win. Dems can realistically only afford to lose 1 seat. They will lose at least 2, likely all three. >

It's a long shot. The way I see it there are things that could work for the democrats.
Things that could tip it in the democrats favor
House disfunction: the inmates are running the asylum now and they will provide lots of amo for 2024
Presidential year: more people come out in press years and turnout is usually good for the dems
Biden: could go either way, his approval rating is going up right now. If it stays up he could be a boost to the dems in the general. 
Propganda issues: the war in Ukraine is dragging Putin down and Fox is getting sued for 1.6 billion by dominion. Both of those are going to be massive issues for the propaganda machine that powers the GOP.
Abortion: in my opinion all of these come secondary to the issue that killed the red wave. The anger at the GOP may have calmed down a bit since roe got overturned 6 months ago. That won't last forever, at some point a cute white girl is going to die a painful and preventable death and all fingers will be pointed at the GOP. The closer that happens to an election the worse it will be for the party.
The territory they need to defend is still going to be hard. Like I said above it's a long shot but it's not impossible. >

Democrats may win the presidency in 2024 but the Senate is lost, I cannot see how a Democrat could win a senate race MT, OH and WV in a presidential election year in safe republican states. It is unlikely a state elects a senator from the opposite party to the presidential candidate who wins that state. Susan Collins is the exception in recent history. >

If the incumbents run, yes.  It's hard to beat incumbents, and the ones in these red states are particularly strong.  Manchin, Brown, Tester, no Democrats are better equipped to win their states than them. >

Discussion of this is moot. A year ago from today every metric pointed to the republicans sweeping the house and senate, and look where we are today. Things could change radically in the next few years, don’t try to predict the future with the past. >

As an Ohioan, I seriously doubt Brown is going to lose his Senate seat. He's won his last few elections by outperforming other Democrats in the state by wide margins. He has a lot of clout with working-class Ohioans of both parties and won his last race after the rest of his party for shellacked in statewide races.
I also wouldn't really call 2018 a "Blue Wave," at least not in Ohio, because it wasn't a good year for Democrats here by any stretch. Brown wins because he's a quality candidate who is a known quantity in Ohio, not because he has a D next to his name on the ballot. >

Considering that Trump won by 8 points in 2020, DeWine won by 25 points in 2022 and Vance won by 7 points in 2022, do you believe that Brown can hold on? This is a red state in a presidential election year.
Tim Ryan who was perceived to be popular with the working class lost to Vance who seemed to be a poor candidate. >

Republicans won by similar margins in 2018 and Brown still over performed other Democrats to keep his seat. He's a conservative Democrat in a red state, just like Joe Manchin in WV. >

Just like Joe manchin but brown never seems to have a problem backing democratic priorities. Like BBB. Wonder why that is? Genuinely asking because I don't know how he does and continues to be reelected in what is now blood red Ohio >

Brown taps into an old strain of Midwestern left-populism - he's a "prairie populist" as they used to say.  White working class voters in the Midwest have tended to be somewhat culturally conservative or moderate, but further left on economic issues.
Tim Ryan was somewhat similar and didn't win, so IDK. >

Depends on what happens more. Democrats passing bad policy or Republicans Stabbing their voters in the back. >

No major policies will be enacted in the next 2 years. We have a GOP house and DEM senate and White House. There are no policies they all agree with. >

They will still pass things in each chamber that will fail in the other. And then there is the inevitable budget battle. >


Ohio is likely to flip to the GOP. It is now a solid red state. The 2018 midterm blue wave carried Sherrod Brown to victory. With the presidency on the ballot, the GOP turnout will be high.

You're just totally wrong here >

It’s possible. Joe Manchin is DOA in WV, it’s too red and a presidential year. 
Tester, Brown and AZ will tell the story, but it’s an uphill battle >

People have been calling the end of Manchin since the 2012 election the first time he was reelected. He somehow manages to pull it out. I wouldn't be too hasty to bet against him. >

Yeah.  Anyone else and it would for sure be a bloodbath.  He has a fighting chance.  
(Which may or may not turn into a sure thing or evaporate entirely depending on the next 2 years.) >

As others have said Manchin probably switches places with Justice and runs and wins the governors race against a rabid Trumpster. He doesn’t want to risk his perfect record in WV. WV could be comparable to KY going forward, not competitive federally but still elects dems for gov because of how poor the states are. >

If things go unchanged no theres not really a solid chance. Maybe if Manchin runs in West Virginia and can win maybe. But the deck is stacked against him. If the GOP makes some really bad moves in the House and puts some god awful candidates like they did in 2022 then maybe Dems have a chance but honestly best case scenario for them is another 50-50 split with this map. >

If the house Republicans go full Tea Party, democrats have a better chance.
If Trump runs as a third party, democrats stand a better chance.
By historical trends, the republicans should have at least a 10 to 20 seat majority in the house now.
Younger people  might vote more and more old people might die.  We are treading new grounds here >

Anyone who would vote for any Republican for any position in any government anywhere is a traitor and should be expelled/deported.  Fine, so I've said my piece.  The fact is that a great part of the USA is composed of complete idiots who think the GOP can handle the economy better than the Democrats (proven false by history), that the Republicans are better at managing crime (false again), that the Republicans are better at national defense (another wrong answer), and that the Republicans are better at infrastructure (nope).  So, the USA has a whole pack of idiots, and what does that mean?  It means that this country is going to collapse, and that the idiots will reap what idiots deserve to reap -- complete destruction.  Big chunks of this country will be converted to third-world-nation status and be jettisoned by the USA, including most of the former Confederate States plus some other benighted areas like Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.  In those areas, The Hunger Games will look like paradise. >

I really hate this map. It’s fucked over Democrats twice already. Two blue wave years nullified by how lopsided it is and where the GOP defends. >

2024 is worse than 2018. In 2018 the Democrats made a net loss of 2 seats in a blue wave. They lost Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota but gained Arizona and Nevada. I expected them to lose IN, MO and ND in 2018. >

If they don't get either the House or Senate and the White House, it will be the end of America. >

A GOP trifecta in 2024 is one step closer to fascism. >

I think the democrats will lose the Senate. Maybe 47-53.  Just really depends on 1) If the extreme parts of the Republican Party can reign itself in or if the house is going to be a shit show over the next 2 years.  Also who is running for President. If it’s Trump.  I imagine that the losses in the Senate will be minor and we will retake the house.  if it’s Ron DeSatan.  Maybe more of a loss. While I don’t think he does well with the press.  I think he’s going to do better than trump did against Biden. >

There are a few things at play in 2024. For one thing, Dems need Joe Manchin (WV), Jon Tester (MT), and Sherrod Brown (OH) to run for reelection, otherwise, the Senate is almost certainly gone (even then it's going to be tough). Last time these three ran for Senate, it was a Democratic wave year (2018). Before that, it was a presidential year and Obama carried Ohio. Susan Collins' win in 2020 as well as a few of the Governor/Senate elections last year shows that some ticket splitting can still happen, but these are three states that will probably vote decisively vote for a Republican presidential candidate and the Republican senate candidate will probably get pulled over the finish line with them. 
So those three states are Democrats' biggest problems, if they lose those you're already down to a 52-48 GOP senate. After that, unfortunately for Dems, the battleground states present more opportunities for Republicans. Krysten Sinema's seat in AZ should be safe, but her turning independent is going to be a problem. She's not very popular and running a Democrat for that seat will hand it to the GOP. Michigan and Wisconsin should be OK, although Michigan becoming an open seat is going to make that race more interesting especially if Republicans run a decent candidate (big if). Same with Virginia, seems like a safe seat for Democrats but as we saw in 2021 the right Republican can win there. So while I wouldn't bet money on the GOP picking up any of these states, a GOP favored environment + better candidates could lead to some pretty unexpected outcomes. 
On the other side of things, Democrats best pickup opportunities are Texas and Florida. Good luck with that, especially in a presidential year.
This is just based on the map alone, obviously, the national environment, who the candidates are, and especially who the candidates for president are will make a huge difference. It's probably way too early to speak on that since we don't really have any information on that front, but I would think Dems need a really favorable environment for them to even come close to holding the Senate. Even if the fantasy scenario of DeSantis as the nominee + Trump running as an independent leading to Biden picking up red states plays out, there's still going to be only one Republican on the ballot for Senate. It's going to be a rough election. >

Eh, Sinema’s approval in Arizona is already poor. I think she just retires. 
I think the median outcome is Dems losing all 3 of the Trump state seats, but winning everywhere else. 
I’d be more optimistic about Montana and Texas if they hadn’t turned into conservative identity states, where California cons move to explicitly be in redder states. During 2018, Cruz actually lost native Texans but won transplants. That problem has only exacerbated over the past 6 years. >

Right now considering that Roe v Wade is simmering low, I think only a reversal in LGBT marriage can truly reverse what a GOP wave in 2024. >

Are there any pending court cases that would effect prior supreme court decisions on this, or interracial marriage? If so, you can definitely expect this to move public opinion in 2024. >

If Republicans have DeSantis, the Senate, the House, and SCOTUS in control in 2024 people's heads will explode. >

Change to popular vote across the board and hell yeah, the Democrats would win. >

Maybe, just always hard when things are going so bad with a political party in control. I mean Biden couldn't have asked for a worse time thus far objectively his fault or not. But the midterms went better than expected so who knows. >

Jon Tester is one of the most popular senators in the country according to recent polls, and is surprisingly I think the most popular Democrat senator. I think he may have a good shot at keeping his seat in Montana.
I do think Manchin is screwed though.