comment: >
  
  
  and the fact that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are not terribly popular personalities according to most polls
  
  You don't have to like someone to vote for them because you thing they are better than the other guy, as the 2022 elections show.
  
  Add to the fact that the Electoral College still exists
  
  And as we all know Democrats have never won the electoral college /s
  The future is uncertain, any firm projection now is overconfidence.
  Someone in early 2019 might have projected/guessed that Democrats would win in 2020, but they would not have predicted one of the top issues in 2020 Presidential election, which is a disease that literally did not exist in early 2019.
context: Your view can't be changed with sources because we can't see the future. What we do know is that Democrats, in a time of high inflation, low approval ratings, and recession worries, out performed every prediction at midterms. A sitting Democrat president gained Senate seats and only narrowly lost the House.
  Voters are fired up about issues that hit close to home and are showing up in record numbers across the country, which is historically bad for the GOP. Combine that with rumors of Trump running as independent if he doesn't get the nomination, and you have a shit storm brewing for the GOP.
  If Republicans want a solid chance in 2024, they need to prove they can leave Trump behind, show they will legislate for their constituents, and stop appealing to the farthest right in the party. You can only ratchet so far right before you alienate the ones voting and they switch sides. >
  
  And if Trump goes third party, maybe that'll split the vote enough so we can get Bernie in office >
  
  They could be president elect but they wouldn't be president until Jan 2025, because that is when they are sworn in and the transition of power happens. >
  
  Gotta love delta farming. You literally addressed none of OP's points and are just trying to score a triangle by getting them on some pedantic detail. >
  
  People need to stop committing so blindly to either left or right and critically analyze whatever the best option could be regardless of their feelings. Not the most charismatic one but the one that will bring the best for the country. >
  
  Totally agree, and on virtually every issue the right is wrong.
  Should we expand voting rights or waste billions going after the 'voter fraud' boogeyman?
  Should we expand Medicare and stop our citizens from dying due to the costs of healthcare, or privatize Healthcare and allow some scumbags to become wildly wealthy profiting from the sick and the dying?
  Should we lower drug prices, or allow big pharmaceutical to keep price gouging?
  Should we raise the minimum wage, or eliminate it?
  I've yet to hear a republican plan for anything ever that isn't just a grift to put more money in the hands of the rich. There's no guiding principle, no moral standing, just a pile of bile wearing suits and acting respectable. >
  
  You’re still thinking in terms of left and right, which is what I’m saying we shouldn’t do. This only divides people into becoming emotional pawns of either side. 
  I disagree than on every issue the right is wrong that’s a clear bias, both sides make valid and invalid arguments in different subjects. We need to address every topic critically not emotionally. >
  
  Could you elaborate on how each side is right and wrong? >
  
  I also find it funny how these types of both sides appeals are always super vague and often refuse to actually engage with policy.
  Maybe I have looked at the policy on offer. Maybe I don't think trans moral panic and election denialism are good. >
  
  Trump doing slightly better among non-white voters and Hispanics was interesting, but the biggest shift in 2020 was in non-college educated voters shifting red and women shifting blue. If your going to base the GOPs chances in 2024 on the last presidential election, that’s probably what you should look at.
  But I’d take into consideration to the midterms, where the GOP performed abysmally in what should have been extremely favorable circumstances— high inflation, an extremely unpopular president, and many more vulnerable democratic seats than Republican.
  Republicans managed to take the house, but with an extremely thin majority, which is being taken advantage of by the extreme right of the party to force concessions. Government shutdowns and possibly a debt ceiling default seem likely to be on the table, as well as tons of investigations into things only the extreme right wing of the party cares about.
  It also seems likely that Trump will loose the GOP primary in 2024 (DeSantis is polling much higher than Trump) and it’s hard to imagine Trump not starting a third party if he looses (if only so he can continue fundraising as a candidate for federal office.)
  It’s really far out though to say with any degree of certainty at all what the political environment will be in about two years though. 
  And I don’t see it being decided by things like support for lower taxes on the rich and less regulation — I can’t say if those policies are more popular than we’d like to admit, but those policies have been loosing support among the general populace over the last few years. Tough on crime, yeah, that’s a weak spot for Democrats. Republicans have weak spots too. >
  
  I think trumps just pretending he'll run to get money off his fanbase to be honest I generally don't think he wants to be president outside of bragging rights that said I do think his endorsement will be effective.
  Which I guess brings me to desantis which I also don't think will get in mainly because I think he has no charisma unless it's towards people who already agree with him but a second reason is people could semi pull the plausible deniability card with trump he said alot of racist and sexist stuff but the real problem was the people around him who hardcore believed that crazy shit who were allowed to make big choices because he didn't care one way or the other as long as he thought it made him look good.
  Desantis is in the people around him field that's going to hit for alot of people no doubt but unless your evangelist you gonna find a reason to see how he's fucking you over.
  E.G. He get famous for not wanting gay people to be able to work in schools but he's is also against stuff that helps poor kids get a good education and will most likely dismantle that if he gets elected. >
  
  Lot of variables but I do not see Trump back in. I would say Biden is out though and unless he dies and Kamala is president she is out also. She has been useless so far but I think if she was incumbent she would have a chance. I see nobody else in the democratic party on the path to president. Gavin will never make it outside California and the rest are just not ready or way past their time. So overall, a Republican most likely but there is a lot of time between now and then. Trump was a joke 18 months out. Obama was not on the radar 18 months out. Biden was not going to be on the ticket 18 months out. Its just too far out. >
  
  The 2022 election went much more in favor of the Democrats than was expected.  I think that was in large part a backlash to the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade as well as people appreciating the Democrat support for Ukraine.  Depending on what other Supreme Court decision drop in the next couple years and where we are at in Ukraine might play a major role in how the election turns out, not to mention if we fall into recession in 2023 and if that extends into 2024 as well as if inflation cools down.  So I think there is a lot that will play into how that turns out that is outside of the cultural aspect which you are mentioning here.  Maybe as a country we are becoming more culturally isolationist, capitalist, and social Darwinist, all of which would favor traditional Republicans, but that obviously didn't matter so much in the 2022 elections, so I'm not expecting it to be the primary thing that drives the 2024 election either. >
  
  I think there are a lot of variables that we don't know yet that would determine the outcome of next elections, for example how good of a job Biden makes between now and then, how good the republican campaign is, how good the democrat campaign is, the economy in general, etc. 
  I personally believe the democratic candidate is going to win, but that's mostly because I think left wing ideologies are more popular amomg the younger generations, and between last elections and next ones, there will be a good amount of old people dying and a good amount of young people becoming old enough to vote.