comment: >
  
  The one thing that will definitely also help Trump in the 2024 Republican Primary for President is that they don't have an "Obama like person" to tell the candidates who don't have a chance winning to drop out, like what happened in 2020 on the Democratic side.  Yes, a larger field of candidates helps Trump, like what happened in 2016.  But, if the RNC chairwoman and other establishment Republicans can't make any deals with the other candidates to drop out early, then that 30-40 percent of "Always Trump" voters will loom large for DeSantis.
  No matter what happens in the 2024 Republican Primary, we can safely say to "get your popcorn ready" for the entertaining political circus that it will be.
context: I think that the Russian ogilarchs, corrupt corporations, and white supremecy/fascists are motivated and shitty enough to fund primary runs for enough doomed republican candidates to ensure that Trump secures the nomination.
  I think the republican party also understands that Trump likely would lose in 2024...and also that if he doesn't get the nomination he will likely be propped financially by the afore mentioned ogilarchs, corporate interests and fascist hopefuls and make a 3rd party run, destroying any chance at all of a republican victory.
  It should be a very interesting couple of years...invest in producers and distributors of booze, it will be a sure shot. >
  
  
  make a 3rd party run
  
  With the filing deadlines of most states, he'd need to build a ground game for it before he lost the GQP primary and I don't see him getting that together cleanly enough to legitimately make a run for the office.  I doubt any other current parties would take him as their candidate.  His most likely options are run and win the primary and if not, just trying to scuttle the actual winner's chances to make himself feel less like the loser he is. >
  
  You don't think he would run, even if it was only on 1/4 of state ballots to as you say "scuttle the actual winners chances?"   In reality it would only take one or to states, and he has plenty of sycophants in high places. >
  
  There are two schools of thought on how Trump's psychology would react to a primary loss. Both use his ego as the starting point for their analysis, though they reach opposite conclusions.
  One school of thought says that, because he's a narcissistic man-baby, he would refuse to accept a loss and would absolutely contest it in any way possible, kicking and screaming if he must.
  But the other school of thought says that Trump is such a narcissistic man-baby that he would find some excuse to pull out shortly before an obvious and crushing loss, so that he could try to save face and not be seen as a loser.
  It's hard to say which way this coin would land. But I think a lot would depend on the margin of a looming Trump defeat. If it seems likely that DeSantis is going to just crush the fucking shit out of him in a primary, he might find some silly, Cartman-like way to back out of the whole thing. If it seems closer, or even too close to call, he'll stick it out and probably scream like hell if it doesn't go his way.
  Whatever happens, it's unlikely Trump will just slink away into the night quietly and softly, never to be heard from again. Putin has way too much on the line with this horse to stick him out to pasture just yet. Even in political defeat he can still be a useful agitator and stochastic terrorist. Putin doesn't need Trump to be president in order to get those Trump loyalists to do crazy shit and wreck the country. He just needs Trump to exist. >
  
  I’m curious if he loses the primary, will he call election fraud again. >
  
  If depending on vainglorious republicans to put their country above their own political ambitions is your plan then you have no plan.
  
  Once again, Republicans face a collective action problem. They would all be better off heeding my advice, but individual interests discourage it. Absent a party boss who can force cooperation, we are left with this question: Will those Republicans who now understand how dangerous another Trump term would be for America put the country first?
  If potential candidates really love this country, they need to consider sitting this one out—or getting out of the way early—to prevent disaster. Otherwise, we all get rolled. >
  
  
  Absent a party boss who can force cooperation
  
  I think what is damning about the Republicans in the last twenty years isn't even that they're evil, but that they're incompetent. How the hell did they have a government shutdown fight when they held the majority? >
  
  Winner takes it all will pretty much guarantee that Trump will have a good start and then become the inevitable candidate. >
  
  2016 all over again >
  
  All Trump needs is a plurality, like in 2016. There's gonna be like 500 different GOP candidates so he just has to hold onto his core nutcase voting base for dear life. >
  
  
  he just has to hold onto his core nutcase voting base for dear life.
  
  A certain percentage of his base will cling to Trump with all their might, like a leg-humping dog. >
  
  And as he picks up steam the ones who aren’t as warm and fuzzy on him will fall in line. >
  
  Not in the same #s and certainly not with the same enthusiasm.  Trump’s people are blocking the exits (fire code violation = it’s illegal) to keep people from leaving his rallies.  If he runs again it will be the most lukewarm run in modern history.  His own fans are sick of his bullshit. >
  
  Since the Republican Party ran Trump in 2020 without a platform, the candidate has become the platform.