comment: >
  
  DeSantis only polls well in Florida, Texas, and Arizona…most Republicans are fed up with the lies and propaganda…
context: Well the thing you must consider is will RD still have his popularity in 2028 or will he be old news and replaced by another rising star. 
  In politics all it takes is a few really good moments for you to rocket up and take everyone’s a attention and more importantly funding and support 
  So while it may seem better to wait as a young politician if he waits to long he may be old news especially as much of RD fame comes from his covid policy which may be a dead issue by 2028 and therefore will only help in a primary in the best case scenario >
  
  Remember how fast Bobby Jindal went from rising Republican superstar to person non grata? >
  
  We'd probably be talking the same way about Obama if he hadn't run when he did. >
  
  I think in many ways the Democrats wasted Obama. A ham sandwich could have beaten McCain after five years of R failure/malfeasance in Iraq. I'd have loved to see Obama run against Trump in 2016 with the Dem base nominally exhausted/complacent after 8 years of governing. >
  
  I think Trump was in large part a backlash to Obama. I'm not sure he gets nominated (or even runs) if Obama had not been president. >
  
  Obama goaded Trump into running by humiliating him at the White House Correspondents' Dinner in 2011. I'm sure Obama regrets that night more than any other in his life. >
  
  Obama became an emblem of the cultural and demographic shift away from total white dominance to partial/tenuous white dominance. And Trump made himself the figurehead of the fight to hold back that tide. I'm sure it didn't hurt that Trump had contempt for Obama personally, but I don't think it was the main thing that caused him to run in 2016. >
  
  Trump also tapped into the resentment of those that found the post-great recession recovery to either be anemic or didn’t restore their personal economic situation. >
  
  No one was voting for trump for his excellent economic policy.  That's just the excuse the out of touch journalists came up with post facto so that they wouldn't have to say the r word. >
  
  IMO it was the exact opposite. The out-of-touch journalists in their upper class urban bubbles had no concept of the recovery not reaching middle America, whereas “conservatives be conservatives because racism” is about the most boilerplate take out there. It’s not like they were refusing to factor race into his rhetoric on immigrants. >
  
  Three scenarios.
  
  Trump gets out of the race for one reason or another. Maybe he's just in it for the grift and doesn't intend to carry on into the primaries. Or maybe he's indicted? Something.
  He runs for and wins the nomination, then goes on to lose spectacularly in the general.
  Hr runs for and loses the nomination, after which he will devote himself to tearing down the Republican candidate, causing them to lose spectacularly. >
  
  True. RDs best bet is to play keepalive, hope the guy goes down somehow, and withdraw if Trump is still active when the primaries heat up. >
  
  IMO RD has to run now. He is the heir apparent to the Republican Party and nomination. He has spent his time as gov fashioning himself in that way. Based on the midterm results the party is slowly moving away from Trump. 
  In 4 years issues will change, so his platform may not be appealing to the voter. Waiting leaves the door open for new rising stars in the party to overshadow him. He may not be the golden boy he is now. 
  He was a representative now he’s a Governor the upward mobility is either President or VP. Youth in office doesn’t hurt. >
  
  I agree. I don't like him but I think '24 is his best chance >
  
  DeSantis needs to run now because he is term limited. In 2028, instead of being a sitting governor with all the prestige that holds, he will be a two years removed former governor. And former governors have terrible track records running for office. See Gary Johnson, Christ Christie, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rick Perry, Deval Patrick, John Hickenlooper, Jeb Bush, etc. Part of the issue with completing a governorship is there's really no place to go up than the presidency;  a senate or congressional run is a step backwards. If you've completed your term, that basically means you've ended your political career in the government unless another president swoops you up as a running mate or cabinet pick.
  However, politicians who ran as governor have had very good luck. Three of our last six presidents: George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter all began their run for presidency when they were still governor.  Ronald Reagan could have run for a third term as governor but chose not to; in that way, he was not as much a "finished" politician as he was waiting in the wings for another chance, and voters in 1980 knew it. Reagan was also sort of a unicorn in this regard, since this was coming on the heels of an incumbent defeat after an incumbent defeat.
  This is basically his only shot. >
  
  Carter actually finished his term in 1975. >
  
  He then proceeded to hang around Iowa for a year and created our modern primary season. >
  
  Despite Joe Biden being the current President, it’s not actually that common for someone to be a well known national political figure for very long before becoming President. If someone has been getting national attention for a long time, then they’ve probably racked up a good amount of baggage from scandals or from policies that haven’t aged well. Plus people usually like to hope that a fresh face as President will mean they can come in and fix everything, while obviously someone who has been in politics a long time and hasn’t fixed everything yet isn’t likely to achieve that. Most candidates with long prior histories lose the general election.
  So if DeSantis runs in 2028, then he risks no longer being as strong of a candidate. By that point people might be a bit tired of him and they might want someone newer and more exciting.
  This is why so many people ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and for the Republican nomination in 2016. A lot of politicians thought that was their time and they went for it because they didn’t think their candidacies would get stronger if they waited longer. >
  
  I doubt Trump is going to mount a serious candidacy for 2024. There's not a lot of evidence for it imo (apart from what Trump says, assuming that counts as evidence). >
  
  Trump takes his 2020 loss extremely personally. He will run because he’s a jealous, vindictive man child with the temperament of a chihuahua. >
  
  Desantis has to run in '24. There's too much noise around about him running for him to sit back. He has no choice at this point if he wants a real shot at the White House.
  People have already mentioned characters like Chris Christie in this, but on the Democratic side, I'd offer up Elizabeth Warren as an example of this phenomenon. Her "time" to run was in 2016. She would have checked the box for people who really wanted a woman as president, but one that wasn't covered in Clinton-slime. She would have also split the difference between the progressive Bernie Sanders faction and Hillary's ultra-lib followers. I believe she would have fared better against Trump in the general as well.
  But, she cleared the deck for Hillary and tried her hand in 2020 and is now a footnote in US presidential history. Strike while the iron is hot people. >
  
  Yea EW would have beaten Clinton in 2016 imho, but would she take Trump down idk. >
  
  EW would have been fighting the headwinds of the Democrats already having the presidency for 8 years. >
  
  At this point I don't think DeSantis will risk it. I also disagree that he's favored by Republicans. He polls higher in the "would you like candidate x to run" but polls consistently behind Trump in "which candidate would you support in a Primary". More than 90% if polls right now have Trump well ahead of the pack and even up by double digits. 
  HOWEVER, this is the really interesting part. Florida has term limits on the Governor's seat. He can't hold office for more than 8 years in a 12 year span. So DeSantis won't be able to run again in 2026. He needs to find a new office or retire by then. And I don't think he'll challenge Rubio or Rick Scott for their Senate seats. Rick Scott is 70, which is old but probably not old enough to retire in 4 years. 
  DeSantis can choose the safe choice and prepare for a 2028 run or he can risk it all against Trump. Trump will call him every name in the book, DeSantis and his family will recieve death threats (although most candidates do to some degree), and he has a very very small chance of winning. >
  
  I think Ron DeSantis will run in 2024. He has to strike while the iron is hot. If he does wait until 2028, his momentum is gonna end. He‘s term limited as governor after 2026. By 2028, he will have been an ex governor for 2 years, and wouldn’t have a way to be in the headlines. The main reason Republicans love him is because he kept Florida open during the pandemic. As Covid fades, that loses its relevance. “Vote for Ron because he kept Florida open 8 years ago!” doesn’t sound convincing. He’s gonna be old news by then. His culture war nonsense won’t work in the rest of the country.
  But then again, if he does run against Trump, Trump‘s gonna destroy him in the debates. He performed terribly against Charlie Crist. He might be a less deranged version of Trump, but why would the MAGA crowd go for a knock off when they can have the real thing. >
  
  People announce their candidacy like 1-1.5 years before election nowadays. Coming this (late) summer, we can expect to see some people announcing or ”seriously considering” running. Then the whole campaign machinery gonna run, news about fundraising, speech, talking about issues, interviews gonna start trickling in. Some particular person announced well 2 years in advance. 
  Side note, we have our peace for like half a year left. Need to enjoy ourselves! >
  
  Haley and Hutchinson and Cheney and Pompeo have already stated that they will make an announcement this spring. >
  
  I want to say that RD can be effective against DT but when you analyze like just RD speech it's like a knock bland version of DT. This just makes him look like he knows DT has the winning formula so I'm just going to copy that guy. I want to see them debate so i can see a mirror act lol. >
  
  Momentum. 
  RD is the only person besides DT who can win the 2024 nomination. He can force the GOP to choose between him and DT. This is an immense amount of power, and it's going to be gone in 2028. DT isn't running in 2028 no matter what happens, there are going to be multiple candidates who don't have the negative baggage of being DT. 
  It's in RD's best interest to face DT in 2024. If he doesn't he'll find himself facing much harder candidates like Ivanka Trump or Josh Hawley, who also have the benefit of simply not being Donald Trump. >
  
  Trump will mop the floor with him in the primaries. >
  
  2024 Watch: DeSantis tops Trump by double digits in second straight GOP presidential primary poll
  2024 National GOP Primary Poll: DeSantis 39, Trump 26, Pence 2, Cruz 1
  Not to mention that those voters who prefer Pence and Cruz are going to consolidate behind DeSantis. 
  Republicans hate losing to Democrats more than they love Trump. Everyone knows that DeSantis would perform better in swing states than Trump. Most Republicans have now accepted that 2020 and 2022 were lost and lost because of Trump. 
  Trump’s reign as the GOP’s leader is over. >
  
  He hasn’t been exposed to scrutiny and relentless attacks from his competitors. Those polls are hypothetical. How is he going to hold up when he faces Trumps wrath and the democratic machine? >
  
  
  He hasn’t been exposed to scrutiny and relentless attacks from his competitors. Those polls are hypothetical. How is he going to hold up when he faces Trumps wrath 
  
  All he has to do is continue acting as if Trump does not exist.  
  Ron DeSantis finally responds to attacks from Trump, media
  
  Trump made a flurry of attacks against DeSantis in the days surrounding Election Day, calling him "Ron DeSanctimonious" and claiming to be responsible for his success in Florida. DeSantis, Trump's most credible rival for a presidential run in 2024, remained silent on the issue until responding to questions on the topic at a Tuesday press conference.
  "One of the things I've learned in this job is when you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire. That's just the nature of it," DeSantis said in response to a question about Trump.
  
  He didn’t say anything about it until he was asked a direct question about Trump. Even then, he gave a very vague answer that did not even mention Trump’s name. DeSantis knows that Trump is fueled by attention, and he knows how to starve him of attention. 
  Ron DeSantis Is Straight Up Ignoring Donald Trump
  DeSantis sticks to 'ignoring Trump' as former president starts 2024 campaign
  Trump is angry that Fox News is ignoring him and focusing on other potential 2024 candidates, report says
  Fox News (Tucker Carlson is the most popular cable news host in US history) and Joe Rogan (most popular podcaster in human history) have already openly sided with DeSantis. DeSantis has a firm grip on mainstream conservative media, all they have to do is continue adhering to his strategy of ignoring Trump’s existence. Trump has Truth Social, which is only filled with a small number of diehard Trump supporters. 
  DeSantis has the mainstream, Trump has obscure echo chambers. Trump still won’t admit the 2020 election wasn’t rigged, ensuring that mainstream conservative media will never support him publicly. Nobody except diehard Trump supporters cares about “Trump’s wrath,” they won’t even be exposed to it unless they’re already immersed within Trump’s personal media. 
  Trump wants a yelling match, DeSantis won’t give him one. During the campaign season DeSantis is going to continue his strategy of building up his own image while ignoring the obnoxious orange primate being prosecuted by the DOJ. 
  
  and the democratic machine
  
  DeSantis will perform better than Trump in swing states in 2024 no matter what the Democrats do or don’t do. Therefore Republicans have literally zero incentive to choose Trump over DeSantis. Everyone knows this is true. >
  
  It’s easy to ignore Trump now. 30 - 35% of Trump supporters aren’t a number that can be ignored. In a shrinking Republican Party the Trump wing is vital to form a winning coalition. Once they’re both in ring and Desantis gets punched in the face there’s no telling what will happen. I am not convinced Desantis has the IT factor that will make him president. >
  
  There will be no ring and no punching. DeSantis is going to beat Trump while ignoring Trump’s existence. The Trump wing of the Republican Party will harbor no resentment towards DeSantis because DeSantis won’t insult or degrade Trump during the primaries. They will turn out to vote in the general election because they hate Dems. Trump will throw a fit after he loses but I don’t think he will cry fraud and run third party. 
  Accusing Republicans of rigging elections is too far for the Trump base, and every single one of them is aware that voting third party will result in a Democratic win. They hate losing to Democrats far more than they’re attached to Trump, a man who won one election 8 years ago (at the time of the 2024 general). Especially if Biden or Kamala is the 2024 nominee, no way are they throwing the election away by voting third party or refusing to vote. >
  
  He accused Ted Cruz of fraud in 2016 and people still supported him and he won. Ted Cruz is a well known Conservative Republican. Dont be so sure that accusing Republicans of rigging elections is too far for his base. >
  
  I don’t think it matters much, deSantis is going to play terribly outside of Florida and the hardcore Republican base. He is not an electable candidate for President, right now is as good a shot as he has at the nomination though. >
  
  Why do you think his style won’t play outside of Florida? >
  
  I am curious too. He is a world class panderer but I am not sure if that plays well outside of the reddest of the red states. >
  
  Well Florida is a unique cookie, but one could just as easy argue he’s been able to translate what was considered a purple state to a red state. >
  
  Florida was already trending redder and redder. But DeSantis’ politics is hardly any different than Trump’s. Sure gutting education, terrorizing LGBT, and fighting the imaginary woke mob instead of solving actual problems may be fine in boomer filled Florida, but MI, Eis, AZ and Penn doesn’t seem to ageee if the last 3 elections are any indication >
  
  Even if DT convinces RD to not run against him by offering the VP slot, the Republican Party will find someone else to run against DT.
  RD would still be able to run in '28 even if DT/RD ticket loses in '24. >
  
  I think 2024 is Desantis' best chance to become president. By 2028, he would have been out of the govenerors office for two years, and his momement will likely have passed. 
  Doesn't mean his road to the Whitehouse will be easy by any means... Trump will be a tough opponent for any Republican to beat... and even if he wins his party's nomination he'll (most likely) still be facing an incumbant president which is almost always an uphill battle. >
  
  DeSantis’ political cache will never be higher than it is right now. He is at his peak and so it will honestly be now or never. >
  
  Political momentum is a fleeting thing. There's no guarantee he can win the nomination this cycle or next, but he almost assuredly won't be in a better position next cycle. He's leading or effectively tied with Trump in polling which has big-money lining up behind him. 
  I think there is a going to be massive pressure on big R donors to coalesce behind a single challenger to Trump. He's got 30% of the R primary vote locked in whether it's 1v1 or 1v10. For those desperate to move beyond Trump, their best bet is as close to 1v1 as possible. DeSantis has positioned himself to be that choice. Without him in the race, it looks like 2016 all over again.
  If DeSantis were to back down from that challenge, he comes off looking weak and scared - the opposite of the strong leader type the R base looks for. His big money backers might be ticked off. Instead of "saving" the party from a Trump nomination, they may blame him for a fractured primary that allows Trump to win again.
  He's not a moderate Republican who can't win a primary in the current environment. That would be a politically smart reason to sit out and hope there's a better environment a few years later. Instead, he's built himself to excel in the current environment. Not-running in this context is not a sign of sophisticated political calculation - it's simply being weak. >
  
  Good question. He shows so little actual interest in governing that its probably better if he runs now.  At some point his failure to do anything is gonna start showing. 
  Case in point - he has decided to investgate a stupid drag show in Broward instead of homeowners insurnace companies (who have failed to make required disclosures). More theater, less substance. It may start to hurt him … >
  
  The Republican Party is caught in a trap of their own making.  trump's many crimes and gaffs are leaking away his political capital.  When his actual money goes: he's done.  DeSantis is great at aping trump's language and policies--plays well in Florida--but it's unknown whether or not he can play the Big Leagues.
  I'd actually watch for a "Dark Horse" like Kari Lake to make a splash.  She has charisma and spouts enough cray-cray to toss as meat to her Base. She'd be a tough opponent against trump; but I bet she'd trounce DeSantis. >
  
  Kari Lake is an utterly repulsive creature. I’m so glad she lost. >
  
  He doesn’t have a great personality. He has the Ted Cruz problem popular among extremists but has a mainstream likability issue. He will flop once the national spotlight is on him. Being the smart Trump isn’t a complement. >
  
  DeSantis? The guy who polls well in Blue areas of Florida and with Democrats there? His positions are much more Moderate than Ted Cruz and he has a real chance of sweeping Midwestern states outside of Illinois. >
  
  I think he’s just not likable Trump is  actually likable. I hate him because he brings the worst out of his supporters. He will do and say just about anything to win. He doesn’t even like his supporters, he thinks they’re a bunch of mindless hillbillies. Desantis isn’t handsome and has the personality of a door knob. When he gets on the national stage he will fizzle out like Beto, Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal. >
  
  RD needs to separate himself from MAGA. The further away he gets, and away from fascist control, he will win, because there are so many voters looking for leadership, that wants to make America whole again. He can do it, but his current trajectory does not have the building blocks to create such an environment. 
  If he should run against Gavin, with his current position, he will get smoked.
  Hope he realizes it before it is too late. >
  
  I think he is convinced crazy is a winning strategy. How can he win nationally without the radicalized maga wing? >
  
  I understand your point, but associating with those folks, will cost him dearly with not only the USA, but the rest of the world.