comment: >
  
  That was the thinking in 2008, with GOP nominee John McCain. And in 2012, with Mitt Romney.
  The same proposition applied to Democrats in 2000 with Al Gore, and 2004 with John Kerry.
  One of the key factors in any election is likability. While I regard Donald Trump as a grotesque and despicable person, many Republicans harbor some affection for his personality - wealth, swagger, 1950's "good ol' boy" attitude, etc. His image is the basis of the cult of personality that has cropped up around him.
  Take that principle and look backwards. Barack Obama has great personal charisma and rhetorical skill. George W. Bush projected a similar "good ol' boy" sensibility as Trump, but less cruel and more bumbling. Bill Clinton was described as having a JFK-like aura. George Bush Sr. had a more tepid presence, but he also served only one term. And before him, we had a movie star.
  In sum - personal likability of a candidate drives turnout, and turnout drives election results.
  Now consider Ron DeSantis. Nobody likes Ron DeSantis. He is a nasty little hobgoblin with no sense of humor. He's an indoctrinated right-wing culture warrior and he takes everything too seriously, especially himself. I don't think I've ever seen the guy smile.
  Finally, keep in mind that a 2024 Biden vs. DeSantis election wouldn't be a question of whether people like or dislike DeSantis. It would be whether they like him enough to unseat an incumbent president, which, historically, has been a high bar. In recent times, voters have evicted an incumbent president only in the case of clear error, such as George Bush Sr.'s mismanagement of the economy or Donald Trump's mismanagement of, well, everything. In the absence of a huge national crisis or some other problem (such as health issues), Biden will retain a big incumbency advantage that DeSantis likely cannot overcome.
context: It says a lot about our justice system's inability to discipline the rich & powerful when we are at 'wait until he dies' as an option. >
  
  I get the sensation that every alphabet agency has a press release at the ready, stating, "we had plans to charge Donald Trump with X, Y, and Z crimes and had all the evidence in the world to do it, and we were totally going to issue the charges this month, but he's dead now so oh well," and they'll use his death to sweep all of it under the rug rather than confront the game of proscutorial musical chairs/hot potato they've found themselves in. >
  
  I hope he lasts as long as the 2024 election so that he can split the GOP voter base >
  
  If not his mini me in Florida can do it. >
  
  If you mean DeSantis I don't think he'd split the GOP vote, I think Republicans will really rally behind him.  That man is a real threat.  I'm just waiting for Trump to start screaming the primary election was stolen from him too when he inevitably loses it.  Maybe then some of the election deniers will start to see the light. >
  
  I don't think DeSantis is crude enough for the base.  He sounds like such a wimp when he talks.
  If DeSantis gets the nom, I can easily see Trump splitting the vote. >
  
  The base will vote for whomever is the GOP candidate on the ballot, whether they’re into them or not. As such, it can go his way and the American Experiment will die.