comment: >
  
  The way I see it, Ukraine has many advantages going forward, but there are still weak spots for both sides.
  On both sides, one of the biggest unknowns seems to be on the political front.
  Can Putin continue to hold on to power, even as the war becomes increasingly unpopular among ordinary Russians? At the moment, it's clear that Putin has severey cracked down on dissent from oligarchs and anyone inside Russia in a position of influence. As the oligarchs begin to feel financial and economic pressure from the isolation of the Russian economy, that may change. Ironically, any effort Putin makes to de-escalate the conflict may be seen as a sign of weakness, further threatining his political power, so he's sort of backed himself into a corner. If the war becomes sufficiently unpopular, it's possible that rival oligarch elites will organize a palace coup.
  Zelensky, on the other hand, is up for re-election 2024. Currently Zelensky is very popular, with a 91% approval rating. But the difficulties of running a political campaign during an ongoing conflict where parts of the country are under foreign occupation still leaves many unknowns and opportunities for political crises to develop. A change in Ukraine's political leadership could have major negative consequences for Ukraine's ability to fight the war.
  As time goes on, both sides are going to come under foreign and domestic pressure to make peace, and it's currently difficult to imagine a set of mutually acceptable terms.
context: A part of me wonders outside of the Russian viewpoint, who actually holds the opinion that their victory is inevitable? Is this a strawman opinion only genuinely shared by a handful of those drinking the kool-aid?
  The only person I've heard of that has this opinion is Peter Zeihan as far as I can tell, and lately his opinion has drifted from that original analysis. I think especially at the beginning of the war when Russia had air superiority and were closing in on Kyiv, that may have been the opinion. 
  But now? Even Russian media figures have put on the brakes on an inevitable victory. The failures of the Russian military so far, especially in light of Ukrainian counter-offensives, makes a sure victory for them dim every day this war goes on. And not even the Russian propagandists can hide it anymore. >
  
  I'll have to check out Peter Zeihan.  The first video I found of him is titled "This is how Russia will collapse".  I figured he was going to be a super pro-Russian guy if he holds the viewpoint that Russian victory is inevitable.  Or maybe the title is just misleading. >
  
  Yeah, I'm unsure if he's pro-Russia or if he just genuinely believes that Russia has the advantage to win. He's always been of the opinion that they'd win because of their manpower advantage, their willingness to throw them into the meat grinder to attrition the Ukrainians to submission, and they're more familiar with artillery battles because of their experience from WW2.
  However, I think he fails to consider morale and especially that Ukraine is fighting a defensive war. The war goals for a victory are much easier to fight for and maintain than the political and economic willpower that's need for Russia to win an offensive war. I think he also underestimates Ukrainian capabilites, which was evidenced by their huge victory in Kharkiv, and their maneuvers to take Kherson.
  Peter did predict that the Russians would invade the Ukraine due to the geography and defensiveness of the Russian frontiers.