>

they want to hold drills in Armenia to keep their soldiers there, unofficial invasion lol
Can't blame the Armenians for this. The Russians have been surprisingly useless in protecting them from Azerbaijan. Why would they commit to deepening the relationship at this point? Russia can't offer them jack. >

Russia offers less than nothing. A deepening relationship with what is now a Pariah state for a lot of the world can be actively harmful and comes with diplomatic downsides. Add to this the lack of CSTO support and Russia's treatment of other states in its alleged sphere of influence. The juice is not worth the squeeze for Armenia. >

And Russia can at any time decide they need a win and turn their training forces into invasion forces that already are in the country they are invading. >

Well thats one less friend of Putin, keeps getting better and better. >

Putin doesn't want friends.
He wants subjects. >

Armenia is geographically screwed and relied on Russia for protection, which Russia did not give. So now Armenia doesn't trust Russia and won't host the training in their land. >

The US has also made several diplomatic overtures to Armenia, so Armenia will latch on to that like a drowning man. How this all turns out is uncertain due to Turkey, but if some deal can be struck behind closed doors then Armenia could fall within the NATO sphere of influence some day.
Depending on concessions, I could see Turkey eventually agreeing to Armenia aligning westward (even if not outright given NATO membership) simply because the process of doing so would give them massive leverage to arrange the conditions for it. >

Armenia has a long way to go before NATO membership. The borders of all three Caucasus nations are suggestions at best, with Armenia and Azerbaijan being the worst off, notably with Artsakh disputed between the two. >

I’m not as up on this region. I know Armenia’s reactions with Azerbaijan and Turkey are bad, how are they with Georgia? >

Amicable in that there’s no ethnic tension between the two that I’m aware of. However since Armenia is a Russian ally and Georgia was invaded by Russia, I don’t believe they’re on the best of terms.  But one of the easier relationships to mend in the region. >

RuZZia's list of friends keeps getting shorter and shorter. >

"friend" >

Slave with benefits >

"benefits" >

"with" >

At least they truly are slaves...twice >

Yeah, turns out when you don't help a member of the te military alliance you're in when they're being attacked and used the CSTO's version of NATO's article 5, they might object to you doing drills on how they'll "help" you >

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 77%. (I'm a bot)


Armenia will not host Russian-led military exercises this year, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Tuesday, January 10, in a sign of growing frustration with Moscow.
Mr. Pashinyan's announcement came after the leader of the ex-Soviet republic criticized the work of Russian peacekeepers in the South Caucasus, which has been plagued for decades by fighting between Armenia and neighboring Azerbaijan.
Mr. Pashinyan told reporters he saw no reason for the Collective Security Treaty Organisation to stage military drills in Armenia this year.


Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Armenia^#1 account^#2 device^#3 Monde^#4 republic^#5 >

Armenia: being artilleried and drone-fired by the Azeris
Russia: does nothing
later
Russia: "Can we hold drills?*
Armenia: "Wrong number, sorry." >

And why would they? Russia wanted to play world power creating the CSTO, but does fuck all to lead it in a way they imagined they would. They're not helping their "ally" much with the conflict Armenia has with Azerbaijan. Not to mention all of the projecting miltary power they have is tied up and being humiliated in Ukraine. Prudence would have them steers clear of Russia and more towards the rest of Europe, however much of a tightrope that predicament is. >

Literally every member of the CSTO or Eurasian Economic Union is looking for the exits.
Before, they were held hostage. Armenia for example only joined the EEU, because they were threatened with massive gas price rises and economic coercion like Georgia with their wine (post 2008 invasion of Georgia they basically banned Georgian wine Russia, wine is their biggest export). The economic coercion was less explict in public, but everyone knows Russia's operating style.
The relationship with Russia was never truly by choice, but every time in Armenia's history that it looked westward it got betrayed or the situation was manipulated by Russia/Turkey.
Always been a shit situation and poor leadership hasn't been especially helpful for Armenians.  
Edit: spelling issues. >

let's not kid ourselves, they aren't drills, they are special military invasion training operations.
call them what they are. drills they are not. >

I wouldn't want to train with them either. >

"you don't get to boss us around any more. You are shit poor and are losing your 2-week war" >

Well, Turkey is the one behind Azerbaijan, and Ruzzia is now a clown that even Turkey can take advantage of, keep relying on Ruzzia is a quick way towards national suicide. I wonder who they can rely on though. >

So, "come join our anti-NATO axis"? Yikes >

Kazahstan or other allies of the collective security treaty organization should take acctions and send their military to the border in Armenia to defend them, if notThey are showing that the defense organization is useless >

Russia has extra troops to use in drills? >

Is Russia not a big enough place to hold drills? >

Armenia is geographically screwed and relied on Russia for protection, which Russia did not give. So now Armenia doesn't trust Russia and won't host the training in their land. >

The US has also made several diplomatic overtures to Armenia, so Armenia will latch on to that like a drowning man. How this all turns out is uncertain due to Turkey, but if some deal can be struck behind closed doors then Armenia could fall within the NATO sphere of influence some day.
Depending on concessions, I could see Turkey eventually agreeing to Armenia aligning westward (even if not outright given NATO membership) simply because the process of doing so would give them massive leverage to arrange the conditions for it. >

Russia can’t guarantee shit for security. If you rely on Russia for security your only options are pivot to the west or go it alone. >

The west loves azerbaijan. >

They can also love Armenia. >

No, for the same reason you can't buy more and more from russia but claim to love Ukraine. >

How is that remotely similar to this situation? Neither Armenia or Azerbaijan are global pariahs. If Armenia wants western support there’s no reason they shouldn’t get it.
Edit: By your logic, Greece and Turkey can’t both be in NATO. >

War crimes are still war crimes, even if everyone looks the other way. >

What are you even talking about?
Edit: If Armenia pivots westward and receives western support it’s not like Azerbaijan can block a state like the US from acting unilaterally. >

OK, your comprehension is far too low for this. >

Can't blame the Armenians for this. The Russians have been surprisingly useless in protecting them from Azerbaijan. Why would they commit to deepening the relationship at this point? Russia can't offer them jack. >

Russia offers less than nothing. A deepening relationship with what is now a Pariah state for a lot of the world can be actively harmful and comes with diplomatic downsides. Add to this the lack of CSTO support and Russia's treatment of other states in its alleged sphere of influence. The juice is not worth the squeeze for Armenia. >

And Russia can at any time decide they need a win and turn their training forces into invasion forces that already are in the country they are invading. >

Well not so much anymore. Russia pulled most of their troops out of Armenia to fight in Ukraine. 
But yea under normal circumstances you'd be right. >

Ukraine is a large country with a prewar unoccupied population of 40 million and can easily be resupplied by the west. Armenia’s GDP is roughly the size of Malta or Botswana and they already lost a lot of their military stockpiles in the Nagaro-Karabak war. Even in Russia’s weakened state they could pretty easily cause a lot of problems for Armenia. >

Let's not give them any ideas... >

Yeah, turns out when you don't help a member of the te military alliance you're in when they're being attacked and used the CSTO's version of NATO's article 5, they might object to you doing drills on how they'll "help" you >

It also has to do with the fact that for the last 30 days the Russian “peacekeepers” have been allowing a blockade of Artsakh by Azerbaijan designed to starve to death 120,000 people. >

Genocidal dictatorships love to stick together. >

I don’t think Russia has the option of conducting non-minor military operations outside of Ukraine right now even if they wanted to. I think we should expect Russian passivity in the Caucasus and Syria alike, along with the possibility that other players exploit that vacuum, especially now given the weak response to Azeri escalation. >

So, "come join our anti-NATO axis"? Yikes >

I mean, the CSTO is kinda the Anti-NATO alliance. What Moscow is hinting at is for Armenia to become a client state. >

It's incredible how fast Putin managed to completely fucking destroy the CTSO's credibility. >

Well thats one less friend of Putin, keeps getting better and better. >

Putin doesn't want friends.
He wants subjects. >

Well, then he has one less subject. The fewer the better. >

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 77%. (I'm a bot)


Armenia will not host Russian-led military exercises this year, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Tuesday, January 10, in a sign of growing frustration with Moscow.
Mr. Pashinyan's announcement came after the leader of the ex-Soviet republic criticized the work of Russian peacekeepers in the South Caucasus, which has been plagued for decades by fighting between Armenia and neighboring Azerbaijan.
Mr. Pashinyan told reporters he saw no reason for the Collective Security Treaty Organisation to stage military drills in Armenia this year.


Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Armenia^#1 account^#2 device^#3 Monde^#4 republic^#5 >

And why would they? Russia wanted to play world power creating the CSTO, but does fuck all to lead it in a way they imagined they would. They're not helping their "ally" much with the conflict Armenia has with Azerbaijan. Not to mention all of the projecting miltary power they have is tied up and being humiliated in Ukraine. Prudence would have them steers clear of Russia and more towards the rest of Europe, however much of a tightrope that predicament is. >

The Russian idea of negotiations is a lot like Trump. They negotiate a deal they like, that's on their interests, and when the deal no long suits them, they ignore it, or renegotiate it. 
Happy to cash in on the benefits, but won't pay if it inconveniences them. >

I wouldn't want to train with them either. >

The only drills appropriate right now would be drills up putins ass >

RuZZia's list of friends keeps getting shorter and shorter. >

"friend" >

Slave with benefits >

"benefits" >

"with" >

At least they truly are slaves...twice >

Armenia: being artilleried and drone-fired by the Azeris
Russia: does nothing
later
Russia: "Can we hold drills?*
Armenia: "Wrong number, sorry." >

This helped >

On 10 January, Armenian prime minister Pashinyan denied claims that Moscow has pressured Armenia to join the Union State of Russian and Belarus but said “the reality isn't as simple as it seems. Sometimes, it's not the text but the subtext that needs to be considered.”[105] >

After getting pissed at Armenia for moving away from russia now they want to send troops there? Almost sounds like preparation for a “special military operation” >

Literally every member of the CSTO or Eurasian Economic Union is looking for the exits.
Before, they were held hostage. Armenia for example only joined the EEU, because they were threatened with massive gas price rises and economic coercion like Georgia with their wine (post 2008 invasion of Georgia they basically banned Georgian wine Russia, wine is their biggest export). The economic coercion was less explict in public, but everyone knows Russia's operating style.
The relationship with Russia was never truly by choice, but every time in Armenia's history that it looked westward it got betrayed or the situation was manipulated by Russia/Turkey.
Always been a shit situation and poor leadership hasn't been especially helpful for Armenians.  
Edit: spelling issues. >

Armenia stuck between a rock and a hard place.. >

They will never leave. >

That’s probably a good move on Armenias part. >

Tbh there is no "good" move rn. :/ >

Yeah as a Turk I think their only good move is to open borders and accept defeat against azeris.   
They are leaving Russia but getting closer to Iran which in return makes Israel getting close with Azerbaijan.   
So from US and western point of view replacing Russia with Iran is still no good.    
They don't have allies, no population, no international trade partners or ports, no army. Just cut ties with Russia and Iran, open borders with Turkey. Eat whatever EU and US put on the table and rebuild. It's not easy to accept it but it is what it is. >


Yeah as a Turk I think their only good move is to open borders and accept ~~defeat against~~ ethnic cleansing by azeris.

ftfy. Come on, azerbaijan lauds as heroes people who kill Armenians abroad in their sleep. Their museum of hate is on par with nazi german propaganda. >

It's hard for them to imagine their governments are literally building up to another genocide even though all the signs are there. >

People denied it in the 1930's, they denied russia's actions right before Feb 2022, they never learn. >

Pooty keeps forgetting his meds . >

Yeah, well the last time russia held military drills they got lost and ended up in Ukraine... >

"Well, we're going to perform our 'drills' on your land anyway. There might be some light pillaging. Because these aren't actually drills." - Russia, probably. >


Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)

When's the last time the CSTO actually defended one of its members?! >

“Military drills here? No thanks. I’ve seen your special operations.” >

after what russia did in that war I dont blame armenia, armenia trusted them, and look where it got them. >

good for armenians. >

Friendship with Russia ended, now seeking friendship with US (fingers crossed). >

Can't because they are friends with iran >

Kazahstan or other allies of the collective security treaty organization should take acctions and send their military to the border in Armenia to defend them, if notThey are showing that the defense organization is useless >

You want to know just how useless it is? The CSTO said that any attack on Armenia’s borders is a red line for them. In May 2021 and September 2022, Azerbaijan invaded Armenia proper and now occupies 170 square km of the country. No joke, CSTO response was that the borders aren’t well delimited so instead of defending Armenia’s borders they decided to send a “fact finding mission” to Armenia two weeks later. FFS Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia was faster and did more to stop Azerbaijan’s aggression than Russia. CSTO isn’t a military alliance, it’s Putin own personal club designed to keep countries he thinks belong to Russia in-line. >

Well, Turkey is the one behind Azerbaijan, and Ruzzia is now a clown that even Turkey can take advantage of, keep relying on Ruzzia is a quick way towards national suicide. I wonder who they can rely on though. >

France unconditionally supports Armenia, but as you might have noticed France doesn’t share a border with Armenia. >

I can't agree, really.
Turkey unconditionally supports Azerbaijan. France, admittedly, does send thoughts and prayers on every occasion. Very grateful, not joking. It's more than basically everyone else. But it ain't enough. >

I agree, but short of military aid they do what they can. They are the current rotating president of the UN Security Council and they used that position to convene a meeting of the current humanitarian crisis created by the blockade. That's a powerful use of their political soft power. Unfortunately, Russia with the help of Britain used their votes as permanent members to stop the UN Security Council from issuing a statement. >

let's not kid ourselves, they aren't drills, they are special military invasion training operations.
call them what they are. drills they are not. >

Uh that’s what drills are. They are training exercises for different military operations, one of which may be invasions >

"you don't get to boss us around any more. You are shit poor and are losing your 2-week war" >

"My god, has it been two weeks already?" - Putin, probably. >

Russia has extra troops to use in drills? >

Is Russia not a big enough place to hold drills?