>

Maybe he has to say that or else?  
From Putin's perspective, he does have to fight on. Anything else will make him seem like a weak looser, a coward, a traitor to Russia who cannot protect the Russian people and land.  
Dictators depend on appearing tough and strong, unassailable. Just look at the tough man of action image Putin has tried to cultivate. It's no different to other dictators like Hitler or Mussolini. The moment that facade starts to crack his life is in danger. So Putin will fight on to prolong his life expectancy.  
There are also some of the public who have taken the Kremlin propaganda to heart and really gone to town with it in an ultra nationalistic way. They believe anyone who so much as hints at withdrawing without a total and absolute conquest of Ukraine is a traitor.  
So Putin is stuck. He cannot withdraw in any way for fear of being toppled and so he must fight on. Maybe he's even delusional enough to think he can still win. That depends upon his information. Telling a dictator the truth he doesn't want to hear would be a quick way of being arrested or worse.
New post can be found here >

FDP and Greens are already in favour and said publicy that the tanks will be delivered. If SPD turns down the request, this would mean a Govermental crisis in Germany. >

How many KA-52's are left at this point?
And I have hardly heard about MI-28 losses. I wonder what the reasoning is behind that? >

They made around 130 if them. 20ish went into the Ka-52M programme, so I would say they had a 100 in operational condition. We have 31 confirmed destroyed, so roughly 70 left. >

Only 11? I remember this is not the first day of multiple Ka-52 losses, though to be fair the last one was Kherson. Still, I thought the total would be higher. >

Apologies - got the wrong number from Oryx - 11 Mi-28, 31 Ka-52. Corrected. >

I feel it's honestly better to just keep quiet until the deal is actually done >

40k dead to take a town with population 10k. >

Not all died and not all casualties are from Bakhmut. Many deserted and Wagner has no idea of their whereabouts. Some POW and WIA 
It was a failure man force wise, but also Moscow saw it as a means to hold the front while mobiks "trained". >

Estimated Russian losses from 24.02.2022 to 24.01.2023 (Day 335):
|Category              |Change*|Total     |
|:---|:---|:---|
|Personnel             |+690      |122170    |
|Tanks                 |+2      |3152      |
|APVs                  |+8     |6284      |
|Artillery             |+2     |2148      |
|MLRS                  |+1      |448       |
|Anti-aircraft Systems |-      |220       |
|Aircraft              |+2      |289       |
|Helicopters           |+4      |281       |
|UAVs                  |+3    |1897      |
|Missiles              |-      |749       |
|Warships / Boats      |-      |18        |
|Other Vehicles        |+8      |4944      |
|Special Equipment     |+1      |194       |
*Change since the previous day.
Source: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine >

Holy shit, Kreminna/Svatove must be a shitshow for Russia.  Usually they only have their pilots take big risks like this when they're about to lose major areas. >

There's also the failed offensive in the south that was talked up in milblogger circles but has apparently already sputtered out. >

All the aircraft losses were in the east so it means things went poorly for them on 2 fronts. >

It was all Gerasimov attempting a quick PR win by claiming a "victory" this early. 
The reason why not Surovikin or Zaluzhniki ever thought of it was that those villages are completely destroyed and in the middle of the no men's land for months. Any troops there are open to artillery fire, and the front can't be pushed either way without an extremely coordinated campaign that would be telegraphed weeks before. 
But for Russia propaganda machine it doesn't matter. Ru MoD is already saying forces are being "regouped to more favorable grounds" which is falling back after being heavily damaged. 
ISW, Defmon3, and even Strelkov were doubtful of this "offensive" and calling it for what it is a sad propagada attempt at the cost of hundreds of mobik lifes. But in >

Typical Russian tactics. Using untrained meat shields to buffer while they try in vain to fix the endemic structural issues of the Russian military apparatus. End result being needless losses for no gain. Russia needs to be rebuilt from the ground up like we did with Germany. Sometimes the only way to fix things is to start from (roughly) scratch. >

Germany had to literally be rebuilt from scratch after all the Allied raids and firebombing of German cities. Russia has largely been untouched aside from some attacks by Ukrainian forces.  The US and other NATO allies have largely conditioned their aid to Ukraine on the premise that Ukrainians strictly use their aid to defend their country and not attack Russia proper.  Most of the mobilized Russians are from the poor areas of the Russian Federation unable to get themselves exempt from service, ethnic minorities, or prison dregs.   Essentially people that count for nothing in Russia. >

ronpaul.gif >

Oh gosh, oh darn. >

Hilarious, they’ll be the next forcibly mobilized >

Obviously 18 is better, but it would have been nice if they made 17 their initial order. >

Vehicle, belonging to local collaborator Valntyna Mamai, has exploded in Berdiansk
Another one bites the dust. >

It's incredible how the flow of weapons supplies perfectly tell the story of this war.
The invasion and defense of Kiev: Javelins, NLAWs and small arms.
The war of attrition: HIMARS and 155 m Howitzers.
The indiscriminate bombing of civilians: Patriot and other anti-air.
And now we're into the Bradley+MBTs stage... Which probably means the big counter offensive. >

So now all of a sudden Germany is delivering Leopards and Switzerland is freeing up ammo. This is a good day. >

Source about Switzerland? >

Money is no use if your home is overun with baby killers. >

And a reminder that for putin's birthday, 
they blew the fuckity out of the Criean bridge
and Luka gave him a tractor >

*salivating* >

Abrams, Leopards, rumors about F16 in February... I guess Russia is soon gonna get a short trailer on what fighting the West might feel like. >

Well, the West of the 80s at least.
More than enough, and should be just enough to put the fear of F-22, F-35, etc. into them for future ideas of invasions. >

Abrams tanks finally get to fulfill their purpose. Blowing up Russian tanks >

Abrams have blown up plenty of Russian tanks... they just didn't have Russian crews. >

So those tanks were probably a bigger threat, better crewed and equipped since they weren't subject to the corruption in the Russian defense ecosystem. >

Abrams wrecked Iraqi Republican Guard T-72s in both Iraq Wars, but the T-72s did not have advanced optics and other bells and whistles we could expect from modernized Russian T-72s. Though in one battle in the the second Iraq War a couple of Abrams engaged 7 T-72s in close range urban combat and destroyed all of them without suffering any losses. >

People need reminders that this war did not begin in February of 2022.  They need to see that appeasement and ignoring Russian aggression does not lead anywhere except more pain and suffering. >

Saw this tweet and held off sharing information on it until casualty numbers are established. >

Added to the Live Thread! >


The application is correct and complete.

The best kind of correct. >

a single f35 just to clarify to russia they cant see much less engage it lolol >

A single F35 to draw sky penises over The Russia? >

"It could take years" for them to arrive. Well, better than never I guess. >

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will announces the delivery of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine. >

And there was MUCH rejoicing. >

“yaaaaay” >

You know you royally fucked up when Switzerland sides against you. >

Bahahaha! Yes. Exactly.
Russia is about to have some really bad days. 🍿 >

Western MBTs won't have an immediate effect due to training and logistical issues, but they will massively increase the Ukrainian Armed Forces' land warfare capabilities in the medium term and, coupled with its considerable number of IFVs and artillery, turn it into one of the stronger militaries in Europe.  Russians should take note and retreat from Ukraine. Sadly, I don't think they will. But they will suffer terribly in the process. >

I wonder if in the short term it will also make the AFU less risk adverse to use their current available tanks if offensive opportunities will manifest themselves in the winter >

It might take time to get the Abrams sorted, but the key thing is this unlocking the leopards, which might appear on the ground much faster. >

Nova Kakhovka is across the Dnipro from the liberated part of Kherson oblast. It's one of the most important crossings.
Ukrainians were able to make it across the water, launch a raid, and swim back with a prisoner. That's an incredible feat for Ukraine, and a yet another giant fuckup for the Russians. >

What is "absorption rate" in this context? >

When an army is influxing new units and new equipment (especially pertinent in Ukraine's case as its getting all this western equipment as opposed to the soviet stuff they have doctrinal and institutional knowledge of) the bottleneck of how much it can take in at any one time usually has to do with how many people they have trained to use it and how many people they have trained to fix, store, transport and maintain it.
If the army in question does not have all that in place then having the equipment will do it no good at best and will be actively detrimental at worst. >

Corruption is bad enough, but there is a special place in hell for those engaging in it while their country is fighting for its very survival. >

There's a special place in hell for websites that do force redirects back to the original page when you try to do a google translate page. >

50 as a start would be good if the keep on delivering more like with the Bradley's. >

US Set to Provide Ukraine with M1 Abrams Battle Tanks - Bloomberg headline >

I guess if WSJ, Politico and Bloomberg are all talking about this, then it's pretty much all but confirmed >

It's tanking time boys.
Der Spiegel reporting that Germany is going to deliver tanks, and allowing allies to hand out theirs too.
This will most likely include Americans to send out theirs too. Possibly some Leclercs too? >

These are Leopard 2A6's thats great before everyone talked about 2A4's thats a 20 year upgrade thicker armour more damage and better Systems >

Seems like there’s a massive spring offensive coming if these, Challengers and Abrams are rolling across the border. 
Could this be a sign for jets too? Western doctrine is pretty much focused on the synergy of jets and tanks right? >

I think it will pass, but it's going to take time. There's a built in waiting period even after passage to allow opponents to correct signatures for a referendum. >

There have been rumors of an offer to Russia to withdraw to the de facto borders of 23 feb 2022. It seems Putin has turned this down. >

The problem with returning to pre-23 Feb 2022 borders is that both sides know it won’t stay that way. Ukraine wants all their territory back as they should. >

Ukraine can not rest on any security as long as Crimea is held by Russia.   Ukraine MUST control Crimea, or they will simply get invaded again.  It's a strategic sink-hole. >

So the corruption sweep feels very satisfying. I don't see a lot of resources that list the people along with the allegations, so here's what I can find:
The only one with no allegations or details I can find is the Deputy Minister of Social Policy Vitaly Muzychenko. 
Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov resigned following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm.
Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko went on a 10-day European vacation for New Years, driven in a G-class owned by a rich guy from Lviv.
Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya and Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda both went down for their connection to Deputy Infrastructure Minister Vasyl Lozinskyi, who was arrested on Saturday on suspicion of accepting a bribe worth over $350,000 (£285,000) over the supply of electricity generators. 
Kyrylo Tymoshenko, Zelensky's deputy head of office, drove around in a Chevy Tahoe that had been donated for humanitarian purposes, and took excessive trips for photoops while overseeing the restoration of destroyed housing and infrastructure. Note that he switched to the Tahoe after earlier in 2022 he was accused of driving around in a Porsche Taycan given to him by some other rich businessman. 
Four out of five regional heads, Valentyn Reznichenko from Dnipro, Oleksandr Starukh from Zaporizhzhia, Dmytro Zhyvytskyi from Sumy, and Yaroslav Yanushevych from Kherson all went down for their ties to Kyrylo Tymoshenko and his photoops. 
The firth regional head, Kyiv's Oleksiy Kuleba, is the only one with no allegations. He's resigning so he can take Tymoshenko's post. >

Tymoshenko was also involved in the "Grand construction" project before the war, in which a lot of money aimed at building roads and highways was embezzled instead >

Can't wait for the deluge of tanks to finally happen. Then we can move into jets >

F-16's and Typhoons hopefully. Then the Ukrainians can get a good mix of US and European weapons. >

This is confusing.  Why would the US announce a preferred strategy to the South, and also announce that President Zelensky still wanted to pursue Bakhmut?  Is this like the 4D chess Pootin thought he was playing a year ago? >

Remember when everyone was hyping Kherson and the offensive happened in Kharkiv. Even the US was part of that deception. >

Solovyov is fuming at Germany. Calls for destruction of Berlin. >


Solovyov is fuming...

That one's well up the list of "Ways you know you're doing things right". >

I'd rather he be smoking, preferably near critical assets. >

Ukraine is showing Russia how raids are done. Russia just throws people into impossible situations, while Ukraine attacks cleverly. >

I'm not sure why this stuff is allowed to be shown before the war ended >

Nothing here isn't a known and expected entity, 'Adam' is known and infamous in the war. >

It took me about 15 minutes to geolocate the outside takes. I hope the center is located elsewhere... >

That’s a lot of helicopters. >

To call it a devolution in tactics would be an understatement. The trajectory is not looking good for ruzzia. >

At last the tank dam is breaking. >

I’m bewildered at how many Russian soldiers are willing to go on suicidal attacks. Tactically senseless, strategically meaningless. But still they go. >

They are being briefed with shit Intel or outright lies. 
Wtf you gonna do when you'll be shot for not following orders based on bad Intel? >

Frag. >

Air raid alerts in the entire of ukraine
Apparently Mig-31's and tu-95s in the air >

Posted already but since its new news and a new thread...
Ukraine expects to get 100 Leopard tanks from 12 countries, pending Germany approval of transfers, per senior Ukranian official.
"It started to be realistic after the decision in the UK. (UK Defense) Minister Wallace broke through this wall," the official said.
Source: ABC News
Talk amongst yourselves. I'm verklempt. >

This is all just drip feed.
The logistical chains are worked out. >

Russian media* are already reporting on one of the first Prigozhin's get-out-of-jail customers. A 54 y.o. realtor who killed his wife and children under a 22 years sentence now relaxing in Turkey a free man. 
*few independent outlets in the Runet >

Why would Turkey even let him in? >

Would they know unless they do extensive background checks on all incoming Russians? Turkey is still totally open to Russian tourists. I doubt they run criminal background on every traveller. >

Lets hope this is true. I'll believe it when Germany confirms they got the formal requests.
I'm all for building public and political pressure on Germany but the last days have been ridiculous. Theres a fine line between political games and straight up lying. The latter is really not doing any good in a situation where trust between allies is so important. >

This is what happens if you press ahead and publicise these kind of things instead of talking about them in the international coalition. >


Wonder if Reznikov survives

He does, but his deputy (responsible for backend logistics) resigned >

Can’t wait to see the F-16s providing air support.  This is probably the most important deployment in the history of the aircraft. >

Hurricane in WW2 begs to differ. Or Spitfire if you like that plane more. >

The Czechs have given a ton of aid to Ukraine. I don't blame them for not wanting to part with their fleet of main armored vehicles. >

In comments, article writer says that the amount could be 30-50. I'd assume that would be the first"wave", like with Bradleys >

Erdogan is a child. >


RT_com's account has been withheld in Portugal, Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, Malta, Germany, Greece, Romania, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Austria, Luxembourg, Latvia, United Kingdom, Denmark, Lithuania, Croatia, Estonia, Cyprus, France, Spain, Belgium in response to a legal demand. >

If anyone ever wondered where we were with supporting Ukraine. The destination is settled, question is how to get there. >

It makes me proud to be a westerner when I see that despite all of our problems, mistakes, divisions and issues, we can still manage to unite when needed and fight for what's right. Hugs to my fellow westerners, allies from the pacific and co. :) >

That’s democracies for you. We expect, demand even, a lively public debate before decisions get made. 
“democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried.” >

Saw this snippet, hope its true:  U.S. Is moving towards sending abrams tanks to Ukraine - U.S. Officials tell reuters >

Everyone's excited over 100 Leopards, 30 Abrams, 200 extra T-72s, 50 Bradleys, 50 CV90s, 100 Strykers, 50 Marders, 30 British SPARTs, 20 American SPARTs, 19 Danish Caesars, 12 Swedish Archers, Estonia's full stock of Howitzers, 200 Hummers and 200 Canadian Senators, and 300,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition.
But I don't see anyone talking all two of Russia's operable T-14 Armatas. They're gonna stop this fleet of Western decadence in its tracks. >


all two of Russia's operable T-14 Armatas

One's been reserved for parades. >

The other one is reserved for towing the one reserved for parades. >

What actually is the Adam tactical group? I see a lot of combat videos of them popping up as of late, but I'm not actually sure what their organizational structure is. Is there a credible source on this or is it mostly classified info? >

As I understand it is SOF ("ССО" in Ukrainian) >

If Turkey has a bone to pick with Sweden, why don't they just ratify Finland's bid? >

Because Finland tied their entry to Sweden’s. Realistically though, they can afford to wait out Turkey since they’ve already gotten defensive pacts with the main players in NATO anyway. >

Do you think UA sent some pilots and maintance personel to the US to train on F16? With 11 months of this already passed and no end in sight, there was/is more than enough time to provide/teach Ukrainians to use them >

Not yet but my guess is soon. The problem with training aircrew and maintenance to use and maintain them is that you absolutely CANNOT cut corners unlike with other gear sent. It has to be by-the-book or else people will die especially in a high-stakes environment like a full-blown war. It’ll be 6 months or longer before we ever see them grace Ukrainian sky. >

Unless they have been in training already, and are nearing the end of the training cycle, hence the recent statement by the Dutch.
I hope we eventually find out that during Ukraine's initial mobilization they skimmed a few new recruits that had relevant experience (either vehicle maintenance or aircraft maintenance) along with some experienced maintainers already in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and sent them off to get started on the long lead training. >

Swedish gov just announced press conference in 15minutes with the background being the NATO process and security of Sweden >

THANK YOU SCHOLZ and THANK YOU GERMANY for making the right decision. You will not regret it, and you will earn a lot of respect for your country thanks to this move. This is a fight for freedom, for democracy! Germany is on the right side of history this time! As a defender, not as an aggressor! >

I was off reddit for like 3 hours, and seems that I have missed one of the most important moments of the last months. Is it confirmed, Germany 100% officially sends tanks? Very cool. >

Most probable are more MiGs, and later F-16, since those can carry all the various US-produced munitions (HARM, JDAM, etc.). I'm not sure if Eurofighter or Gripen can do that. Plus, the quantity of F-16, and therefore maintenance capabilities are most common >

Eurofighter can carry European weapons that the F-16 is not integrated with.  
For example Meteor, Brimstone (which the UK has provided for ground launch), Storm Shadow etc.   
Meteor is much more deadlier than AMRAAM which the F-16 can carry.   
I strongly suspect Ukraine is going to get a bunch of F-16's from nations that are in the process of replacing them with F-35's and probably a handful of Eurofighters for some European weapons. >

"Meteor, Brimstone, Storm Shadow" sounds like an X-MEN spinoff. >

Brimstone definitely seems superpowered >

Yep, makes sense. Lot of older F-16's out there that don't have the latest tech in etc.   
Plenty of current F-16 operators in the process of replacing their F-16's with F-35's.. perfect storm of Ukraine getting the F-16. >

Well, there’s some F-16’s that Turkiye wanted that should be immediately available for someone else now. >

Also very much looks like Scholz got his wish of a combined allied investment, with everybody sending tanks including the US. >

Mark Hertling makes a couple of good points in one tweet

If true (sending Abrams to Ukraine) -and I believe it is- it will take significant time to not just train the crews & units (as stated in the article) but also even more time to “set” logistics & support infrastructure. This is part of long-term plan to help transform Ukraine’s Army. >

Yes, it is the lookahead for Russian army getting their ass pummeled. Russians better be finding the parts for new attack helicopters and T-90s, because that is what it takes to take out an brigade of Abrams/Leopards.
Russians in Ukraine are like those people after 60 000 years when all information is lost from previous civilization, coming accross a nuclear disposal site. They think they are digging into a treasure without understanding the warning signs encountered in the process. >

Don't forget about the Bradleys and the Strykers (and European counterparts). The American military's networked battlefield ethos is going to play a big role in the liberation of Crimea. And those Bradleys and Strykers will be key. >

I don’t claim to be the smartest, but can Sweden just sign defense pacts with all the members of NATO barring Turkey basically bypass Turkey’s rhetoric? Sweden can contribute X amount of dollars to defense and if a member nation of the pact is attacked (barring Turkey again) Sweden would be required to respond? >

Yes.  And even more so, if they sign an agreement to fight all defensive European wars with the US in exchange for station a small US force in Sweden then they are de facto 100% NATO.  Because an attack on a US force in Europe would certainly trigger the self defense clauses of NATO.
And if not, 90% of the NATO guarantee is just the US anyways.
Also, though this war highlights the steep difference between formal/informal ally, it also reinforces the idea that ALL of the advanced democracies act as a semi organized security alliance even in the absence of treaty obligations.
Countries like Japan, S. Korea, Australia, and N. Zealand have been 100% on board with Ukraine since day 1 despite no conceivable Russia theat to them.  (Well maybe Japan). >

Anyone know what the electronic warfare capabilities of abrams are? >

I'm pretty sure the Abrams shoots you with a tank blast, which then destroys your electronics. >

Comment made my day >


Bet the Russians don't have it like this

What are you talking about?  Russia looks after its soldiers too: they have water in their trenches... and they get to soak in it! >

Old:  The beatings shall continue until morale improves. 
New:  the executions shall continue until morale improves. >

How to structure all these new imminent tank and other various recent heavy equipment provided? Well since you're wondering...
"Forbes: The Ukrainian Army Could Form Three New Heavy Brigades With All These Tanks And Fighting Vehicles Its Getting. 
Forbes complete primer on potential UA brigade and battalion structures >

NEW: The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said. 
*Unzips* >

Was about time >

How long have you been waiting for EvilMonkeySlayer to unzip? /s >

So the Leopards are officially being released or is there still a lot of diplomatic back and forth? >

After watching 100's of videos of combat footage, the Russians are literally lemmings. March right into artillery fire and keep going while their comrade has his torso blown off and do almost nothing to avoid it.
It's quite hard to fathom the mentality. Especially after seeing competent squad/platoon/company tactics practiced by western style forces in Afghanistan.
When does basic self preservation come into play for the average Russian conscript? >

That was the way people fought 100 years ago. Russia never grew past WW1 because they have the numbers and don't care about their people, nor the people care about their own future. >

Can't even think of another nation with the learned helplessness of the Russian federation. Even if one Russian decides to be strong and resist he knows 100% of his neighbors are lemmings and it will go nowhere >


Even if one Russian decides to be strong and resist he knows 100% of his neighbors are lemmings and it will go nowhere

No they will actively pull him down. >

Culture of shared misery >

Crab mentality is a lifestyle there >

Early reports on Biden agreeing to supply Ukraine with 30 Abrams tanks. >

Listening to Russia is, more than anything else, boring. 
The lies are repetitive and predictable, constantly blending the same word-salad of semi-connected ideas to produce today's novel sentences. Which are pretty much the same as yesterday's and the day before that. The most recent addition I've noticed is an uptick on the phrase "Anglo-Saxon". This is just a rehash of the same lazy positioning — not really losing to loser Ukraine, but rather being in a war with the best NATO has to offer, with a small added twist of specifying some countries as running the show. This opens up the possibility of driving a wedge into the coalition and splintering off the ones who don't fit the epithet. Say... Turkie, or... Finland? Or Morocco? How's that suppose to work? 
Nah, I'm overthinking it again, it's grade-school, schoolyard trash talk and about that creative and unoriginal. The Propaganda State News stations are much more varied with their tales of hordes of homosexual black zombies casting voodoo spells but then again they are also batshit insane, which should be clear to anyone with a spinal column. 
The thing about the Russian state communiques, on the other hand, is that they're all reading from the same  handbook of coersion and manipulation for fun and profit, and every single thing they say is some lie of another to advance their narrative. They literally have nothing else to say but how great they are, and how pointless it is to defy them, and how weak their enemies are, and so on, and so on, and so on. Have you ever run into a Crypto Bro, and remember how they just went on and on and on about how much money they were going to make, and how to buy the dip and how they were going to retire and quit this stupid job once and for all? It's tedious, repetitive, but more than anything else, boring. Which is where we came in.
Well Russia is just like that, but with more murder. So much more mindless murder. Somehow Russia even makes that boring. /rant >

At a high level I think there's probably a lot of worth to be had in studying the Russian psyche. It is so so so different to the majority of the world and it has obviously played a key role in that nation ending up where it has. It can serve as a cautionary tale for the rest of us I guess. As a people, they just seem so apathetic towards life. It's quite scary. I recall footage of a moderately injured soldier telling his Ukrainian captor "just end me" or something to that effect. >

The callous disregard for their own lives as an invading force is what gets to me. This isn't a last stand defense of their own territory.
The smart ones, even if they support the war, fled Russia. Those who didn't, as captured on street interviews, mostly just shrug and say they'll go if the motherland calls.
The easy response is 'well, they're just saying that on camera out of fear.' I'll counter that with the numerous videos of their mobilized peers fighting as if their death is unavoidable, unquestionable, and just the way it is being a Russian
It's an incredibly fatalistic cultural norm; unfortunately, they also seem to treat killing for the motherland, even if they morally don't want to, as unavoidable, unquestionable, and just the way it is being a Russian. >

The cultural expectation that tragedy is like weather makes for great literature and terrible neighbors. >

Watching Willian Spaniel's new essay:
Why Russia Miscalculated in Ukraine: A Self-Inflicted Disaster in Three Acts
Great overview on the lead up to the war, and why so Putin (and so many others) falsely assumed that this conflict would be a walk over. >

Heres what the Russian Ministry of Defence claims that they destroyed:
Total Hardware Destroyed:

Airplanes 376
Helicopters 203
UAV 2931
SAM 401
Tanks 7601
MRLS 985
Artillery 3887
Other Vehicles 8114 >


Tanks 7601

Russia itself only has/had around 2000 battle-ready tanks and only around 10000 in total.  It's crazy how the Russian population believes these numbers. >

Well, they're "bravely fighting the combined NATO". >

The "collective West" seems to be also a favored phrasing. >

So, has Moscow already claimed that they destroyed several Leopard 2? >

And ten Abrams as well. >

I hope after this is all over. Ukraine keeps up with modernizing their military and defense. >

Ukraine, by many standards, had a halfway decent arms industry before the war, and assuming it isn't destroyed during the war, had the Soviet Unions second largest Tank factory in Kharkiv.  They will certainly keep it around to maintain some level of domestic defensive capability. >


and assuming it isn't destroyed during the war

Much of it is destroyed =(
Kharkiv, Kyiv and many other plants got fucked. Izum was key for production and it was looted. Mariupol made steel needed to tanks. It looks pretty bad. We cannot make tanks anymore, and even BTR level stuff is grim. 
On the other hand, our drone production went up and its running nice. We may even produce some interesting stuff that will be used on global market after this war. >

"nazi" has a different meaning in Russia than in the West. There, it means "any enemy of Russia". I’m not joking. >

I was checking out the FreedomofRussia sub and I saw the picture of the lone young Russian woman standing holding a NO WAR sign in the center of Moscow.  I wonder if she was arrested.  There really needs to be millions of her. Wake the fuck up, Russia! >

Of course she was arrested. No chance she would be able to stay there much longer. And if someone thinks that she left after some time, Moscow is covered by video surveillance with facial recognition, she would be found and arrested later. Her being alone is an indicator of the will of russians to protest. Either they are cowards or support this genocidal war. What a nation! >

Brace yourselves for a massive bot activity.  We'll see many articles, posts and questionable comments in the coming weeks/months.  Activity, designed to sow discord amongst Ukrainians and Western allies.  
Make no mistake.  Ukraine will win. The West hasn't faltered in its help.  Russia will lose and lose big.
Слава Україні.  Смерть ворогам! 🇺🇦 >

Does anyone know how long it would take to see Western MBTs on the battlefield after delivery and training? Like 4-6 months or something? >


Ex-commander of US Army Europe, General Ben Hodges, believes that experienced tankers will need 7-11 weeks to master the Leopard 2 tanks. Nicholas Drummond, a former British Army tank officer and now a consultant, agrees with Ben Hodges in absentia, and he says that the required training period is 8-12 weeks. He also noted that the Leopard 2 was once created to be available to conscript soldiers of the Bundeswehr and therefore conceptually made simple. >

I've been looking but haven't been able to find it.. so if its out there sorry. 
How many 2A6s exist in the world?  I can't even find how many Canada currently has.. we might only have 20? >

yes Canada has only 20 2A6
Germany should have 225
Greek 170
Portugal 37
Spain 220 >

With all of these new firepowers being sent to Ukraine, I wonder what would happen to them after the war's over. Does Ukraine gonna keeping them, or they're gonna return most of them back? >

I'd guess they'll keep them as deterrence. If they have to return them we may end up in the same place down the line. They might pay some nominal rent/purchase but the value of discouraging another war would probably be worth more. >

Jesus that sounds almost like fighting a horde of zombies. >

If I was a Wagner soldier I'd be surrendering as fast as I could. By far the best odds of survival. >

Don't see the point of all this infighting and pointing fingers anymore, Germany agrees and will send tanks, USA is sending tanks, the Swiss are sending ammo. Things are looking better, everyone is finally doing their job. Good. >

Another Mark Hertling drop on Twitter and thread reader version

For those saying "don't doubt Ukraine's soldiers, they've proven themselves & can handle any tank they're given," I'd say 3 things:


I've never doubted Ukrainian tankers to learn how to fire & drive the Abrams.  I've worked w/ Ukraine's Army, I know them. They're good.  1/


It's isn't "learning the tank" I'm concerned about:
--can they quickly learn the capability of the Abrams (& Leopard II) the way it is designed to operate.  That's training w/ other tanks, infantry, scouts, drones,artillery, engineers, intel...all more than crew training. 2/


--when the tank - or small critical parts in the tank - break (which they do), & when those small & large  replacement parts need replacing, & when it requires daily/weekly/monthly echelon maintenance, will Ukraine have also trained those who do these things. 3/
-- after the tank crews, sections, companies, battalions master the gunnery skills, the maneuver, and the maintenance, will there also be echelons of support that will flow the needed parts, FUPPs, ammo, fuel, roadwheels, torsion bars, etc, etc, to the front lines? 4/
The reason I ask these things is because I've seen how real armored operations work, and I know how American soldiers & units train continuously to get all these things synchronized.
And it requires teamwork OUTSIDE THE TANK UNITS, TOO!  5/
Those saying "just give them the damned tanks!" have likely never seen the choreography to making this work on the battlefield.  
And those saying "Ukraine has already incorporated other things, they can do this too!" I'd only say I've seen US units- at our training centers...6/
...and in combat get just a few things wrong and it causes disaster and failure. Lethal tanks turn into pillboxes that don't move or shoot.
To make all this work, it takes training, maintenance, supply & a team - beyond just the tankers - to get this right on the battlefield.7/
I'm ecstatic Germany seems to have made a decision to provide Leos & it appears the US may provide some Abrams for the long term.
But like I said it would take months to get Patriots to the battlefield (it looks like 3 months), getting these transfers will take time & effort. 8/
I'll guess Leos will be ready for the fight by (maybe) March.  Abrams, likely, are a followon (I'll be listening to the POTUS speech tomorrow, but I suspect they are 8+ months out).
But that's lightening speed to deliver & prepare a force not trained on these vehicles.9/
All of this is VERY different from delivering and training individual soldiers on Javelin & Stingers, and crews on MRAPS, HMMWVS, HIMARS & Bradleys.
Tanks, like aircraft, are a whole different ball game. 10/
Combined arms conventional operations with lethal heavy armor isn't a video game.
You can't drop technologically advanced equipment onto the battlefield expecting soldiers who do not know it will be able to use it, maintain it, or integrate it into a combined arms team. 11/
And for everyone also saying "the west should have given all this to them months ago," I'd say "maybe, but an army and country fighting for it's life had a few other things on their mind, and we hadn't reached this part of the fight just yet." 
In war, it's hard to predict. 12/
Let me end where I started.  
UKR's Army has proven itself.  They've adapted & that's key to winning. UA soldiers are terrific & I know many of them.  But RU's failure has also contributed to UA getting this far.
Tanks will make a difference, but there'll be hiccups. 13/13 >

I was just thinking that the US were planning to bring the whole logistic chain too, and the sudden government cleanup fits nicely. You can't have a working logistic chain with people pocketing money all over the place. >

Despite Polish claims, it looks like Finland is not part of the coalitionto send Leopard tanks (yet?): 

Haavisto: Finland not yet part of the tank coalition
In Finland, a position has not yet been taken on whether it will in some way join the coalition that would take Leopard tanks to Ukraine, says Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (green).
Poland has planned a joint coalition of a few countries that would give its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. According to Haavisto, one possibility to participate in the alliance is to take care of, for example, some part of tank maintenance.

Opinion: "some part of tank maintenance" does not sound like "we will donate tanks". >

We are having discussion about this topic as we speak but as we have 1300km border with Russia we need to have our own military chiefs in the discussion too. It's not purely political decision here. >

Yeah, not being in NATO yet with a long border with Russia brings in a lot of responsibility and consideration, even if the threat is seemingly very unlikely. Finland's situation is just unique compared to all other nations actively providing military equipment to Ukraine. >

Finland isn’t in NATO, but it does have defence guarantees from most NATO countries after they applied to join. And the common EU defence clause. 
It’s in NATO -Turkey >

Either the Leopard 2's are superior and should be sent to Ukraine to do their job, or my tax money have been taken for a ride! >

Leopard 2s are excellent main battle tanks and even the old leopard 2A4 is generally superior to what Ukraine fields and even to the brunt of Russian tanks atm (barring the scarce T80BVM T90M).
Its just politics at this point. >

Because FT sometimes locks stuff behind the paywall from direct links i'll include the twitter and direct link below:   
German reluctance over tanks for Ukraine threatens future arms sales and European collaboration, officials warn, as the damage from Scholz’s continued indecision spreads 
Direct link to article 
If people can't access the article text let me know and I'll copy and paste it. >

Tanks are great, but also love seeing the anti-corruption drive now too. 
Ukraine showing exactly what they meant, this is all an investment into their future that isn’t in vain. >

Boris Pistorius is quite the name >

Pistolius, as we call our dear secdef. >

Welp. So much for the tanks issue splitting NATO. 
Better luck next time Pootsey. >

So Ukraine now got US-made tanks, UK-made tanks and German-made tanks. Which country will be next to supply their own built tanks to Ukraine? Italy, France?
Edit: once Ukraine wins, they could maybe give a ranking on which tank they liked the best >

Le Clerc MBTs to complete the modern era Cold War NATO heavyweight collection.
The Gang Of Four I've learned about in the 90s when playing the shit out of Steel Panthers II and reading Jane's identification books. >

Alliance of Losers. Don't really understand what South Africa has to gain from this though. >

Not many want to talk about it, but South Africa has been poorly governed for the last couple decades.  Their current president has a long list of controversies not limited to:
-encourgaing striking workers be treated as criminals, and or bound tied and shot by the police (he was on the board of said company that was effected by the strike btw)
-Political opponents suddenly losing large amounts of cash around election time with sham investigation taking place.
-Basically shutting down any investigation into the funding of his political party even after he's been found guilty of taking bribes from just about every business that offers him cash.
They tried to impeach him but the vast majority of the government supports him because of his role in being against apartheid government in the early days.  He's untouchable because of his past but he's very quickly turning South Africa into any other Authoritarian African nation. >

German foreign office on Russia's charm campaign in Africa >

I ... haven't expected humour from an official German government organization. >

That's because German humor is no laughing matter. >

Apparently the Russian narrative around Zaporizhzhia is that it's not the main offensive as there are prepared Ukrainian defenses... lol. That means the remaining avenues of attacks are on Kharkiv, Kyiv, or Kherson, all of which will be doomed to fail. All Ukraine has to do is hold on until its fancy new Western toys arrive. >

At least they're very good at moving goalposts >

I didn't write this earlier (because not talking about sleight of hand is kind of the point) but I suspect all the focus on "will or won't Germany send Leopards" is designed to take the eyes off the real ball, which is "what type of aircraft will Ukraine get?"
I no longer think it's really a matter of "Abrams or Leopards", but how many of each.  Abrams in the north, on decent road structure and close to maintenance / supply, leopards in the south against the forces they were designed to oppose.  And Russia is going to experience what it's like to be on the receiving end of air superiority while facing well equipped armor. >


I suspect all the focus on "will or won't Germany send Leopards" is designed to take the eyes off the real ball, which is "what type of aircraft will Ukraine get?"

My 45 years in this world have taught me that a total shitshow is far more frequent scenario than a cunning plan. >

Sometimes a shitshow magically turns in to a cunning plan tho, then you just roll with it. >

Scholz sends tanks, according to paywalled article.
Spiegel
Thank you to /u/Bribase for supplying the text.
​
Edit: Clean up of link. :) >

Archived in German
Translated:

The decision has been made: Germany will deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. According to SPIEGEL information, at least one Leopard 2A6 company is involved.
Other allies, including from Scandinavia, also want to deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. The federal government wants to grant permission to export such tanks that are owned by other states such as Poland.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday afternoon that the United States was considering supplying a not inconsiderable number of Abrams main battle tanks. France is also considering supplying battle tanks to Ukraine.
The German decision was apparently preceded by intensive consultations over several days with the allies, especially in Washington. Scholz had always emphasized that he only wanted to supply battle tanks in conjunction with other nations such as the USA.
Most recently, there had been reports of disagreements between Germany and the US administration, which Scholz was angry about internally.
According to SPIEGEL information, the German Leopard tanks are said to come from Bundeswehr stocks. In the medium to long term, other battle tanks from industry stocks could be prepared for use.
Most recently, the government partners Greens and FDP increased the pressure on Scholz to supply battle tanks to Ukraine. Only recently did the chancellor decide to make Marder infantry fighting vehicles available to Ukraine.

 
It's_happening.gif >

Everyone in, lads, Dark Brandon is sending the Abrams! >

From all the men that are way too old and nobody seems excited about, Dark Brandon is actually my favorite >

I was pretty meh about him, but he's overall done a lot of good things. Not only with regards to Ukraine, but he's also basically ended the drone strike programs of his predecessors and domestically has been to the left of Obama. >

I was very critical of Biden going back to the 90's, but I have been very pleased with his presidency. >

He's a good example of why a politician changing their views isn't a bad thing at all. >

Cheers everyone, the day we've all been waiting for. Give 'm hell Ukraine! >

Putin and Kremlin having a fit and calling this extremely unfair incoming in 3... >


Tension of possible new offensive is in the air

Yes Gerasimov, you go, unrecognized military genius you! Russia needs to split their forces even more and launch a fourth simultaneous offensive! If at first you don't succeed, just launch more offensives! Eventually one of them is bound to work, right? Right?