>

This is so true across the board. So many times I see statements form russian officials that people just say "nobody believes you" or "who is this for" or "try staying consistent." They should all be asking if that statement was made more for them, the foreign audience, or for the russian people. There is high russian support for the invasion of ukraine and that means that any public statement the russian government makes about it, to anyone, has to meet an expectation of those supporters based on what lines russia has sold them. It's obvious to us in this case because we can see the disconnect between reality and what they say, but literally every single nation does this.
They weren’t supporting Sweden getting into NATO from the start nothing changed lol >

And if they were interested in supporting that, giving Sweden a bunch of demands that would inevitably worsen public opinion of Turkey was a pretty stupid way to go about it. >

It's all just posturing for the elections. Sweden got played, Erdogan got exactly what he wanted. The Swedish government just turned the Turkish election in Erdogan’s favour. He was trailing behind, but this could give him the necessary boost. >

The problem with the Turkish election is that every one with Turkish background can vote. So he gets a lot of votes from the millions of Turks outside of turkey. They almost all vote for him when they have no clue what is going on in Turkey >

There are about 15 million Turks living in Europe, the vast majority are very pro erdogan and they are not shy about it starting riots on his behalf. They know it, Erdogan knows it, European leaders know it. >

They sound like fucking idiots. >

The Turkish Trumpette section of the band. >

Why are the folks in Europe so much more pro-Erdogan than Turkish people in Turkey?  Why are would the ones that left like him more than those who stayed?  Genuinely curious. >

Because they get to cheer the "Turkey stronk!!!" stuff without having to live under his rule I suspect. >

The point is that this is what Turkey has wanted all along: Some justification to say "no". They've been fishing for this through this whole process. >

Except that definitively saying "no" has no tangible benefit to Turkey apart from some internal political posturing for the upcoming elections. So we can honestly expect it to be short lived, then they'll be ready to negotiate again. >

Internal political posturing is the actual thing Erdogan wants and needs as he heads into election season.
The sooner you stop visualizing states as perfectly coherent unitary actors rationally and doggedly perusing a 'national interest' and more that a state's foreign policy is a meritage, a sum of its domestic political actors' concerns, the sooner it will make sense.