>

"Everyone hates me. Will you be my friend?"
Please help me!! Trust me, bro! I pay everything back when i have won >

I bet China will lend them a bunch of arms to get them tested in real life battle. The flow of arms won’t last forever though. >

I don’t think China can afford massive western sanctions at the moment >

They can but probably rather wait until they invade Taiwan >

China doesn’t invade, they simply discover new parts of their territory that they already owned >

Perhaps China will discover parts of Russia with Chinese ancestors and hydrocarbons.  Then they may forget about Taiwan. >

China’s path has been to exert influence using financial means - which they are quite effective at.   Getting into a shooting war is not in their interest.   Russia, otoh, is the quintessential bully and thinks using a gun is the way.   These interests aren’t aligned. >

Pretty sure the US is the quintessential bully >

You say that like any country is innocent. >

No I say that like one specific country has waged wars and assassinations and coups all over the world >

But somehow, it has managed to kill fewer people in the last half century than any other time in history while lifting more out of poverty due to trade stabilization. >

Yes we conquered the planet and crushed anyone with the will to meaningfully challenge us. Almost like something a bully would do. >

Xi has delusions of grandeur, but I refuse to believe he's foolish enough to get directly involved in the Ukraine war. >

They are smart enough not to join the losing side. They would, however, still like to keep buying pieces of Russia under the radar. >

That’s ultimately where this is going. China will buy up Russian debt and exhort control over Russian financial and energy markets. >

Some years back I read a fascinating military strategy article about how climate change will open up crucial year round shipping lanes off the northern coast of Russia, which will effectively almost halve the shipping time (and cost) between China and Europe. The article warned about the influence Russia would have on a global economy in this type of world, and how the establishment of NATO bases and presence in the Arctic was crucial. But my money is now on China leveraging this war to have a very favorable influence over the tariffs and laws that will inevitably come into play when these Russian water become heavily trafficked shipping lanes. >

Oof having those waters be ice-free year round would lead to so many other major issues though. Like it would majorly mess up pretty much all our ocean currents, shipping lanes around the world would have to be reorganized, and that would probably be a very minor thing in comparison with other feedback loop effects.