>

That you profess to hate Trump but like DeSantis. Trump and DeSantis are both ideologues and stand for the same repressive things, which means that you support Trump’s policies, just wish he had DeSantis’ academic background and wasn’t a dolt.
It’s not even a style vs. substance thing because Trump and DeSantis have the same style AND substance.
Tim Scott doesn’t inoculate them against racism charges. See Larry Elder. >

He's very good at deflecting them though, not just blunting them but using them to hurt democrats. I could see DeSantis choosing him as veep and them together winning hispanics and rich suburbanites and badly beating Biden. On the flip side, I can also see Trump turning the whole thing into such a shit show that people are exhausted and divided and just elect Biden again. We'll see! >

I don’t think DeSantis can win in the suburbs. His biggest appeal is being Trump without Trump. The only difference in choice between a DeSantis voter and a Trump voter is a matter of personality. The policy is the same. 
And given that these suburban voters took a sharp leftward swing since 2016, running on the Trump brand isn’t going to win them back. The only way the suburbs return to republicans is with a Romney-style Republican, which isn’t going to happen. If DeSantis wants any chance of winning, he has to repeat the 2016 map with a strong Rust Belt performance with working class whites (and maybe expand upon Trump’s 2020 showing with Hispanics, which would probably give him Nevada). 
His whole schtick anyway is fighting these cultural battles- “Florida is where woke goes to die” or whatever. Its more of the same that plays well with the white working class, but is a huge turnoff for upper middle class suburbanites. That’s a big takeaway from 2022 as well- the cultural battles tanked candidates in places like Arizona and the Philly suburbs. >

I think you are misreading suburbanites turning leftward- it was more about being scared by instability than a political change of heart. Trump is an unhinged demagogue that spouts conspiracy theories and loves dictators. DeSantis has none of those scary qualities. In fact, by highlighting excesses of the left he could scare suburbanites right back into the republican camp. He’ll make the election about open borders and defund the police and woke classroom curriculum and socialism. That’s how you win suburban voters- make the other side scary. >

Republicans ran on that playbook across the country in 2022. >

They underperformed in 2022 mostly due to Trump picked candidates that were 2020 election deniers and celebrities. Republicans did great in Florida, which is Desantis country, and would have taken the senate if not for the Trump effect. Trump is electoral poison for republicans, their key to winning is to move past him. >

That's the comforting justification Republicans are telling themselves. I'm not so sure. Mitt Romney was a palatable Republican in 2012, and he ran the general election on conventional northeastern Republicanism.  He was a prototypical generic Republican and even kind of looked like a Republican you'd create in a lab. His major issues were about taxes on the rich, repealing Obamacare, lowering the deficit by cutting services like social security especially for the young.
Obama dispatched Romney fairly easily.  More easily than Biden did Trump.  Joe Biden was on that ticket and faced off against Paul Ryan, so he knows how to deal with this.
Also Democrats no longer have the same apathetic attitude toward voting because they perceive that the Republicans want to stack the courts in order to take their rights away. >

I wouldn't overplay how any candidate performs against Obama. Obama is a very talented politician. Obama crushed Biden and Romney, and I think he'd do the same to Trump and Desantis.
Biden, meanwhile, can barely get a coherent sentence out and has a long string of electoral failures until 2020. Biden's whole strength is that he's the anti-Trump. While Trump flails about, Biden can just hunker down and make word salads and be nice. People choose him because he's not Trump and doesn't have strong negatives of his own, but he also lacks positives.
I think if Desantis can dispatch Trump and Trump doesn't do too much damage to Desantis in the process, then I think Desantis pretty easily beats Biden. Desantis has shown he can pull in working class whites and hispanics by talking patriotism and freedom and anti-socialism. Romney's job was literally buying companies and streamlining them, Desantis doesn't have that baggage. Desantis also is a lot more appealing to suburbanites than Trump because he doesn't spin conspiracy theories or generally act like a lunatic. Dems will definitely try to turn him into Desatan, but I don't think that will work. >

Republican policies AND their politicians aren't popular.   DeSantis's policies are like a combination of Trump and Ted Cruz.   Personally he is more disciplined but less charismatic than both.   
Since getting elected, DeSantis has done everything he can to make Florida a destination for conservatives and made Florida the anti-Covid restriction state. That seems to have worked well for him there.  But Florida was the only state that had a red wave.  Plus it's been trending red since 2016 so maybe it's not a swing state anymore. 
[Colorado moved almost as much left as Florida moved right.  I'm surprised no one talks about that; but my point is that sometimes former swing states become no longer swing.]
In the rest of the country no one gives a shit about woke this and woke that.  They want to know how you'll make the cost of living lower and the Rs only plans were blame Biden and hate transgenders.  The Republicans in my state ran on the same bullshit and it didn't work, despite our sitting D governor having a ridiculously low approval rate.
Biden had a 42% approval rate.  Both Obama and Trump were  His party should have been destroyed with at least a 30-40 seat net loss in the House and they only lost 9!  If it hadn't been for the gerrymander out of Florida and the court-drawn un-gerrymander of New York, the GOP wouldn't even have won the House!  
The GOP needs to get policy and get a vision.  Covid is already in the rear-view.  By 2024 it'll be history.  Without Covid all DeSantis has is "Florida is where woke goes to die."  That's irrelevant to swing voters.
However, I give it a decent shot Biden chooses not to run if he's confident the R nominee won't be Trump. I In that case the D nomination will be a free for all.  Kamala won't be a shoe-in at all.  If it's Trump, Biden will run assuming he's healthy.
I also give it a decent shot that if Republicans reject Trump, he'll run as an independent or create some kind of "MAGA Party" just to spite them.  He'd get at least 5% of the vote, maybe 10%.  Biden will win 40 states that way. >

Nikki Haley seems like a legit possibility.  She has experience as an executive as governor of SC as well as international experience as ambassador to the UN.  Demographically, she’s a woman and not-white, which might appeal to a party trying to shed its image as a bunch of old white guys.  She’s also the child of immigrants.  
She’s a good speaker, and she’s on board with all the main Republican issues - so she won’t have policy problems in the primary.  She also has managed to fairly effectively straddle the line between MAGA and Republican-classic without earning the wrath of either voting block. >

I sincerely doubt republicans will elect anyone in a primary who is not a cis white man, in the next 20 years. >

You might see a cis slightly-Latino male but that's about as far as they'll go. >

Cruz and Rubio are Cubans that at least went the distance in 2016 even though I'm confident Raphael would prefer people to not know that.
Cubans are the most R friendly subset of Latinos and many of which look white as hell anyway. I can see the first Latin American Prez being a Cuban Republican for sure. >

Remember the weird Rubio-Cruz exchange where Rubio accused Ted of not being able to speak Spanish? >

I didn't catch that part. There were already SO many bizarre things going on in that primary.
It made Ds 2020 look super tame in comparison. All I really remember with that one is Harris getting in a jab at Biden, followed by Gabbard getting in a jab at Harris, and Bloomberg getting dogpiled on by everyone.
There was pettiness at the most. That's nothing compared to the dick measuring contests going on for Rs in 2016. >

Warren taking down Bloomberg was one of the epic moments of my political life.  Followed by Chris Christie's takedown of Marco Rubio. >

Statistically speaking, the third place GOP front runner for 2024 at this time is Mike Pence. And I don't see him having any potential to compete with either Trump or DeSantis. If Republicans want to get rid of Trump, they need to go all in on DeSantis or risk repeating 2016.
As far as 2028 goes, that depends on quite a few things, but I'd say Cruz and Tim Scott would go up in the ranks based on current trends. Haley I feel has and continues to be out of the public eye for too long, same thing that would happen to DeSantis if he isn't President after 2024. And Cheney is never going to be relevant to the GOP ever again, not just because of the January 6th committee work she did, but her voting record these past two years as well.
~~EDIT: Someone else worth keeping an eye on in the 2028 scenario is Glenn Youngkin. If he wins reelection and Trump and DeSantis lose in 2024, he'd become a rising star (or at least one heavily pushed by conservative bully pulpits) as a more centrist candidate for the GOP.~~
EDIT EDIT: Wasn't aware Youngkin couldn't run for re-election in 2025 due to how Virginia's constitution works, so I retract my previous point. It's too difficult to predict 2028 at this time, but I'd say Youngkin has the same problems as Haley by then. >

Virginia governors can’t be re-elected to consecutive terms. >

Which I find very strange. You can be reelected, but you can't do it as an incumbent. 
I guess the benefit is that it eliminates the incumbent advantage in elections. >

Virginia is the only state in the country that still has this. It was more common until about 20 or so years ago. >

Interesting. Today I learned. >

I doubt he’d run, but Brian Kemp would put up a god campaign.  Not as theatric as Trump or Desantis, but still plenty right wing. >

Kemp is one of maybe five people worth keeping an eye on. All of us are talking about the race as we see it today, but did anyone in December 2015 think Trump would win?
The obvious picks today are Trump and DeSantis in the top-tier, a bunch of people like Hogan, Sununu, Cheney, etc. that have no chance. But the middle tier is Pence and Kemp. If Trump and DeSantis maul each other, there just might be an opening for a "normal" Republican, and Kemp makes a lot more sense than Pence - effective, popular sitting Governor, won reelection by a healthy margin in a newly-purple state, and against a very well-funded opponent at that. Depending on the state of the GOP two years from now, his opposition to Trump might even make him even more attractive to the electorate. He's still a solid right-winger, just not a combative, controversial one like Trump or DeSantis. >

In that same vein, add Abbot. >

I think with his recent migrant stunt, Abbot is moving further from “normal” republican.    I’m a Georgian who voted against Kemp, but I respect that he stood up to the Trump machine.  I can’t see Abbot doing that.  He’s just spineless. >

Same could be said about DeSantis, with the Martha’s Vineyard fiasco. If anything actually comes out from those investigations, Florida Republicans might have a difficult time on the national campaign if Gaetz gets indicted. >

Exactly.  Kemp is scary to me because he’s scandal free.  That might clear the low bar Republicans who have had too much of Trump have set for themselves. >

If it helps, unless something big happens regarding Trump and/or DeSantis (particularly the former) regarding the legal messes they are in, I cannot see the GOP winning 2024. Past few elections how shown a clear skew away from the far right nonsense that DeSantis and Trump both comprise. I cannot see Trump winning the election, nor can I see anyone else on the right winning while Trump has a platform to draw support away from them. >

Just like hogan from Maryland NH’s Chris Sununu is gearing up to be a moderate answer. Just won re-election with 60% of the vote and has enjoyed very high bipartisan favorables throughout his term including great approval over his covid handling 
There’s a two faced abortion deal that might bite him but hes likely going to enter the discussion at least >

Hogan believes that there exists a sizeable non trumpy portion of the GOP. I don't think that is the case at all. All the northeastern GOP governors (Sununu, Hogan, Baker) stand no chance in a national GOP primary (although they arguably are closest to the country's views as a whole) >

Pence as zero chance, the trumpers hate him and he has the personality of a stale pasta. 
Everyone hates Ted Cruz; less than zero chance. 
I can see Nikki Haley running but she only has a slightly better chance than Pence and Cruz of getting the nod, Ronny or Donny have that on lock. >

This Santos guy clearly has something going for him. /jk
As a serious answer, I'd say we're too far away from 2024 to know. It'll probably depend on what happens in the House in the next six months. With Trump and DeSantis around I'd expect a third candidate to be someone aiming to distance themselves from those two and go back to more 90s or 2000s style conservatism. >

While it would be nice to have that, I'm not sure that there is a voting bloc of Republican primary voters that wants to head back to 1990's style conservatism. Or at least, there's next to no one out there clamoring for it in the media ecosystem that the GOP primary audience lives in -- otherwise someone like Cheney wouldn't have gotten herself ostracized from the party. >


I'm not sure that there is a voting bloc of Republican primary voters that wants to head back to 1990's style conservatism

They don't.  They have fully rejected it as it has done nothing but bring them harm.  That's why that bloc just stopped voting for a while and only came back after populists started directly targeting them with new non-neocon policies and more fiery rhetoric. >

It’s not a given that DeSantis will run. He legally can’t until Florida changes it’s laws for him. Also he hasn’t been doing anything to raise his national profile and many are thinking he’ll wait. A presidential run is the Swan song of a career in politics. >


He legally can’t until Florida changes it’s laws for him.

Apparently they're planning on doing just that. They wouldnt think of making these changes if he wasnt going to run. >

Hasn’t Happened yet. And he hasn’t indicated exploratory committees or anything. Maybe it’s too early.  I actually don’t think he will run. >

He hasn't raised two hundred million dollars this year to build a throne with.
Edit: Not a literal one, anyway. Though certainly a metaphorical one. >

It may well be someone that isn't obvious now.  It wasn't clear that Ted Cruz would corral the non-Trump lane at the end in late 2014 or that Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum would be the primary alternatives to Romney in 2012.   And few believed that Bernie Sanders would be the primary alternative to Hillary in 2016. >

I don't think Trump will be an option at all.
DeSantis is likely to walk away with the nomination.
The only way that I see any other possibility is if the Trump supporters refuse to participate in the election. In that case, I like Liz Cheney.
I don't think she will win, but certainly she can do a lot to lead the party in a more constructive direction. >

It's going to be a 20 person field again. Pence, Cruz, Trump, Romney, DeSantis, Haley, Scott, Pompeo, Abbott, Rubio, Rick Scott, and a dozen other people are likely to throw their hat into the ring. 
The one wild card factor here is going to be DT because, if Iowa caucus was tomorrow, Trump would sweep basically every primary and win the nomination without even campaigning. So a big open primary is really only possible if he's weakened over the next year by being under indictment. >

I wonder since joining the Republican Party if Tulsi Gabbard (spelling) would run in 2024? >

Andrew Ta- oh maybe not.
I was pretty sure Ben Sasse was getting ready for a run, but I think he's had enough of politics.
Cruz still wants it, but I think Republicans are done with him.
I'll go with a lesser-known, more moderate candidate who isn't going to dive head-first into the culture war.
Glenn Youngkin got elected governor of Virginia, which is basically blue. >

There isn’t any third candidate. It’s one of those two and no one else has even hinted at being in the conversation for 2024. >

It definitely won't be Pence since he's despised by the MAGA faction of the GOP base and isn't all that popular with the regular conservatives either.  Ted Cruz will never win the nomination.  He's too shameless for both the MAGAs and the conservatives.  Haley might get to be someone's running mate, but I doubt she'll ever win the nomination.  Cheney has no chance whatsoever.  Her career in politics is over.  The only way I see her working in government in any capacity is if she gets an appointment, and even that seems unlikely.  I wouldn't be surprised if CNN offered her a time slot.  
The GOP's best possible nominees are the ones who are the least likely to win the primary.  Governors Scott (VT), Sununu (NH), Baker (MA), and Hogan (MD) are some of the only Republicans in the country who Democrats actually like enough to vote for.  Scott just won his 4th term with over 71% of the vote and outperformed every Democrat who ran in Vermont.  Baker and Hogan won their last re-election by double digits, and Sununu won his last 2 elections by double digits.  They're all pro-choice, liberal on most social issues, and popular with independents, but Trump hates all of them so they have no chance of winning. >

I like Larry Hogan, out going Governor of Maryland. Successful Republican in a Democratic state. Leaving office with a budget surplus, proved he can work both sides of the isle and is not MAGA. He's likely not extreme enough for the Trump and Disantis supporters, but if he got through the primary and was the candidate, they would vote for him bc they're going to vote Republican either way, but he could pull moderates, independents and even Dems who are tired of the far left. >

Larry Hogan is a no-nonsense zero-drama candidate with a great track record. If GOP ever wanted a candidate that would be attractive to independents and borderline dems, and never trumpers, he’s the one. >


If GOP ever wanted a candidate that would be attractive to independents and borderline dems, and never trumpers, he’s the one.

GOP voters have made clear they have no interest in that.
They want a candidate who will assure them he'll hurt the right people. >

It's a long shot, but I'm still waiting for the Kamala Harris vs Nikki Haley 2024 match up. >

The dynamics of this race would be so fascinating. Two South Asian candidates, guaranteed first female president. >

Imagine if Trump ran 3rd party in that race...wow. >

As everyone in the GOP cult scrambles to be more right wing than the next zealot, a reasonably sane candidate (Romney, Cheney?) from the "center" could make some noise...
...nahh, nevermind. Fantasy. Sorry. >

Yeah, I was about to say. Romney doesn’t have a chance in hell, and hell itself would have to freeze over before Liz Cheney has any chance at all
Liz Cheney is dead to the Republicans >

Cruz was second to Trump in 2016. I see him holding onto the strong also-ran position. In an anything-can-happen world, he might/could squeak out a win, if DT and RD chew each other up. >

Cruz is less popular with GOP voters today than he was 2016, don’t you think? >

Do not submit low investment content. This subreddit is for genuine discussion. >

Trump ruined it for Pence with the Jan 6 tweet. That leaves Trump and RD as the only viable candidates. It seems like the GOP is having a hard time putting up solid candidates. I’m a Dem, but I really want both parties to get behind better candidates who are serious people. People who want to handle the very real problems we face at the border, with wealth inequality, insurance coverage, skyrocketing education costs, infrastructure, etc. >

not that anybody else has a chance to win unless Trump drops dead or something, but I see Chris Christie as having the best chance of coming in third >

Between Trump and DeSantis egos.....there's not enough room for a 3rd candidate. >

I don’t think it’s fair to say that Ron DeSantis has a lock on the first or second position. At this point he’s a stand-in for “generic non-Trump republican with appropriate credentials”. 
He has essentially no national profile, relatively low name, recognition, and apart from a few Covid policies which won’t be germane in 2024 he doesn’t have a national political identity. His candidacy could very easily fall apart in the primary process. >

Yeah, his stunts have made a lot of national headlines. I do think he will wither a bit when it comes to the personality offensive required of a presidential candidate. >

I think Kari Lake will have a surprisingly strong run. She's the right demographic of being a young woman and a political outsider. Her lack of immediate name recognition is an asset to her. She also fires up the correct people by speaking to folks who doubt election integrity. >

For atonement towards the equality of liberty and justice and a strong stand against fascism there is only one American patriot choice and they call her LIZ CHANEY. >

IMO, Cruz is the only possible 3rd that would draw any significant percentage of the vote.
Cheney has a snowball's chance in hell of even getting the majority in Wyoming, much less the rest of the country.  
Pence is largely out of favor with most of the base, even though he might appeal to independents to some degree.  The thing is, they thought Romney would appeal to independents, and that never works out for the religious types for some reason, so I see Pence as drawing a very insignificant number of delegates in primaries.
Haley, of the ones you mentioned, IMO, has the best shot at being the 4th candidate.  I think Cruz will get bigger numbers of delegates in primaries, but would fall behind Trump and De Santis; while I think Haley would fall behind Cruz in delegate totals across primaries. >

Nobody. Pence is 3rd place and has no chance. Cheney has no chance. Cruz will always be overshadowed by DeSantis. >

I like neither of them, but Cruz is more charismatic than DeSantis.
Desantis is just insanely boring to listen to.  At least Ted Cruz has a palpable hateability to him.