>


Ukraine burns.

There are about 30 other countries who could send help and instead point fingers at Germany, if you feel this urgency act instead of complain to pressure others to act.
"Rush". It's been a year. >

I'm a German and my strong gut instincts tell me that these are only stalling tactic and Scholz ultimately will say 'No'. Maybe Scholz tries to stall the process only until our new secretary of defense has taken his oath and afterwards Scholz will blame him for saying 'No'. Or maybe he thinks the war will stop soon or any other nonsense, I don't know. I really hate this rat on the throne!
Edit: Well, well, well, this weasel really found a way to shift the responsibility upon someone else again! Scholz is such a disgusting and honourless pest! >

German here too, with some insight (know people who work at the Bundeswehr).
He won't say no, he is stalling for time. Because there are not enough tanks in working order to give and/or working infrastructure to maintain them.
Rheinmetall already accelerated their process to get Leopards in working order, and can only deliver 15! in the third quarter of this year.
The most likely scenario is that some Leopards that are currently in maintenance (about 30) for Slovakia/Czech Republic are going to Ukraine.
The Bundeswehr really does not have many Tanks, something around 260, and not even half of them are in working order.
I hope that makes it clear why Scholz is stalling for time. The tanks have to be repaired/build first.
EDIT:
Habeck said yesterday that other countries can give Ukraine their tanks, but they are waiting for a green light from the Americans.
Because the Americans are deciding what Ukraine gets in the end.
Like it or not, but that is how the game is played currently. >

Former StUffz here, you are only partly right. Rheinmetall is telling the german Government they need that long. KMW, the main manufacturer of the Leopard, already said that they would need less than a month to get a Brigade Size Force of Leopards ready for transfer. Its a big lobbyism work and deals between Rheinmetall and the German Government. Germany could send around 60-80 tanks for sure, but only if new expensive contracts are signed again in Rheinmetall's Favor. The whole German Defense Apparat is a clusterfuck >

It should also be noted that adding Leopards into the mix will not suddenly solve Ukraine's problems. 
Sure, every engagement with a modern western tank against, Russian tanks, is probably a win, but they need 300 to archive something, no 30 they most likely will get over the coming months.
Likely, add the same number of western artillery systems on top of that.
And a shitload of other stuff, that they get far too slow.
Western politics is still trying very hard to avoid getting dragged into the conflict, while we could argue that we are already in it. >

I think the more scary realization is that Europe can’t scrape together a few tanks >

This is why sending the few Leopards they have is a bad idea.
Meanwhile, the US is sitting on a few thousand Abrams that can be brought into service relatively quickly. >

Abrams are not suited for Ukrainian environment. They're quite a bit heavier, and most Soviet era bridges were designed specifically to prevent heavy armor from traversing them. Literally every bridge is going to be a trap for them, and force them into super long and round about ways to get back to the conflict.
On top of that, while the turbine engine of the Abrams offers some worthwhile advantages over diesel engines in tanks, one critical disadvantage is they're a nightmare to maintain and work on. 
Leopard 2s have their issues, but they're light enough for Ukrainian infrastructure, and they're easy enough to work on. 
Plus, a good deal of the US' old Abrams in storage are at the M1 standard, which uses a 105mm rifled barrel, and I don't think ammo for that is even made anymore... >

Not to mention exactly zero Ukrainian maintenance crews are trained on how to maintain a turbine powered tank... There might be some commonality with, I dunno, rotary wing crews? I have no idea how similar a tank turbine engine is to a helicopter turbine engine, but it's probably an awful lot closer than a damned diesel engine.
Like I've worked on all kinds of cars and then a number of commercial vehicles - there's a lot of common "themes" as long as you know "the big picture" of what things do what where and then have experience with air systems, hydraulics, etc - if someone threw a turbine engine at me I'd have no idea of "what are the main components and what do they do" 🤷‍♂️ - even as a guy who's been a mechanic on and off my whole life, that's a pretty high hurdle unless someone ships a damned (well written) service manual with the tank lol. >

The turbine is not field maintainable. They basically work for a long time, and when they need maintenance, you swap in a new turbine, which is fast and straightforward, as the tank was designed with this in mind, and send the old one back to the manufacturer for overhaul. 
That part is a logistics strain, but they need much less maintenance than a diesel engine, owing to the fact that there is considerably fewer moving parts. >

What does he think will happen? Honestly, if he says no we need to know the actual things he thinks will happen. Not just, “it will escalate with Russia.”
Russia isn’t touching Germany and Russia can’t possibly escalate in Ukraine without WMDs, which are suicide and would not be used because Putin likes life and his cronies like money. >

Thats not the point
Hes just a politician, he doesnt care about murder or nazis
He just wants money
He does the least so russia doesnt get angry because he thinks then he can still make business with russia >

It’s kind of puzzling though. Let’s say it’s 2025 and Russia has been out of Ukraine for a year. Does Germany really want to get back in bed with Putin? >

After spending billions and billions on infrastructure changes? Sure... Because they are all delusional and adore Russia and ... shit.. wait... I accidently slipped into the insane propaganda pushed onto us on a daily basis for nearly 11 months now.
The actual answer is very obvious for everyone looking at the facts... so for maybe the 5% not affected by propaganda.induced brain-rot yet. >

Edgy >

Certainly no pressure on the Ukrainian side, take your time! >

I don't understand why Scholz is so reluctant to supply tanks to Ukraine.  His dragging feet will impact any Ukraine offensive to kick Russia out of country.
He stated on article he won't be rushed into decision but all it does is to make Germany look bad to the rest of NATO countries wanting quicker response. >

Did any other nato country supply them with tanks ? >

Plenty of tanks were supplied, from the new toys, only the UK did it. >

I looked up the Challenger 2s, what we call "new" stuff was actually designed 40 years ago lol. I'd assume they are still pretty effective but it took me by surprise that they were designed in 1986-1993. >

That's actually pretty common in military equipment. Most big stuff takes years and years to design and build, have several upgrades throughout their lifecycle, and so are designed to be operated for 50 years, sometimes more. >

The M1 Abrams is like on their 7th or 8th refresh at this point lol. >

Call me crazy, but he has a point. Do I think tanks will escalate the war more than artillery, APCs, IFVs, rifles and ammunition? Not really, but his point is still valid. Every decision should involve due process, not decided in the heat of the moment.
Talks about the decision are being held and I'm sure Ukraine will have their much-needed tanks soon (especially seeing as the UK has already pledged 12 Challenger IIs). >

Chancellor Treebeard >

Don't do Treebeard dirty like that. >

When Treebeard saw the extent of the problem he rallied his people to stand against it even though it likely meant their extinction >

Unless Bundeswehr is in even worse shape than they officially say, there is really no reason for the delay. >

The question isn't even with Bundeswehr, it's about Germany's permission to send Leopards for either country that's having them. So I guess Mr Scholz is bound to account all the possibilities and outcomes for his country. And let's not be a reddit assholes, Germany helps Ukraine a lot, like a lot lot. >

It helps, but it's been consistently slow on big ticket items, even from other countries (like say, Leo 2). At this point I don't even think there is any real threat of russian retaliation for sending modern equipment, Poland sent tanks half a year ago already and remains un-nuked. >

No one will be nuked, but russya still has some levers over the western countries, be it oil, ( Europa still buys it through India, i won't search for link, tired and drunk), or some rare earth metals, but something always kicks. So I'm all for fast forward tanks, patriots and all the dead-for-ruzzians tech and weapon, but every country and every government has the only priority - the wellbeing of their citizens ( sorry) , but anyway, guys need to think about next election or something >

I will say that Germany picking it's own short-term benefit (protection of own industry) is very on-brand for them. I still think it's stupid in long term, but that and general russophilia right until the war started still probably has effect on the politics. >

If he does say no to OTHER countries sending Leo2s... the backlash is going to be intense. >

He can't say no, just like he can't say yes. He doesn't have the power and never had. And in fact the whole govenment can't approve or deny any permit because it still doesn't exist out of propaganda narratives.
What should be intense is the backlash when those lying propagandists actually apply for an export permit for the very first time and get it approved as this proves it was all a lie for months. In reality they will just push the next fariy tale about how they bravely forced Germans to change their mind and everyone will gobble it up like a nice little brain-washed sheep... up to the next anti-german narrative starting about one daily later...
Rinse and repeat. >

It’s troubling that Germany only has 350 tanks… they had roughly 4,000 during the Cold War, they built around 25,000 during World War 2. Russia meanwhile still has around 10,000 tanks in reserve. Not all of those are modern but still…. 350 tanks isn’t enough to stop a full scale invasion by Russia.
Who even knows what Russias actually capability is in a total war. They are woefully underperforming in the first year of the Ukraine war but tides can change. >

Germany would not stand alone in all out war because of NATO. Even if german soil was attacked the german defenders would only make up a fraction of the whole force defending it. >

He sucks. I was mildly positive toward him when he took over after Angela, but he’s been a huge disappointment. Baebock ought to be Chancellor, she has more balls. >

In a way, yes, she says more balls-y things. But then, she's also not in power.
Remember how she was initially defending Julian Assange and even called Merkel's goverment cowards and now she remains silent or dodges questions when asked to comment on it. >

The thing is this decision needs to be made now. There are going to be major offensives in late March/early April when the weather clears and Ukraine needs that time to train on any potential new tanks. A decision in a few weeks could already be too late to use the tanks in some very important battles. >

There is no decision that needs to be made.
The decision if and when to send tanks was made a long time ago and probably discussed for ages between governments.
The decision to permit exports can't be made until someone actually applies for that permit. And they all categorically refuse.
So we will simply have to wait until everyone is finally ready and then we will publically pretend how they all bravely forced Germany to back down to announce common tank deliveries. In reality they could just have asked months ago... but reality doesn't matter in this post-factual world ruled by narratives. And Germans are used to being lied about. That's how the EU works for years. Always pretend everything popular was pushed against German resistence, while everything unpopular was forced through by evil Germans. And never let people enough time to think how their ability to block or force something through against a block magically wanes and waxes depending on what the narrative demands. >

I'm so sorry Scholz, the last thing Ukranians dying in this war want to do is rush you or make you uncomfortable in any way, please take your time >

His statement is so out of touch with reality, he sits in his warm home while hundreds die every single time the sun goes down. Just think, hundreds of people every single day, their only life, gone for good, and he is upset about being pressured? He needs to touch fucking grass. >

What statement would you expect instead?
"We can't decide anything because you fucking liars refuse to apply for an export permit to approve in the first place."? >

I would actually love for him to finally say "enough is enough", go in front of the press and call out every single one of these lying assholes by name. >

I don’t think there is much that I would ever agree on with hitler but “get German tanks into Ukraine faster” is definitely one of them. >

Dr. Scholz?
They make two products, shoe inserts and murder machines >

You know, I think they are partly stalling for strategic reason, after all if the West goes all in, so will Russia.
Also there is a debate within NATO going on behind the scenes, after all, all of NATO will be dragged into war if it escalates fully, not just UK and PL.
But there is another thing: Germany once had 4k tanks during the Cold War, it has less than 10% of that number now, for territorial defense. And there are maybe a hundred Leo1&2 in storage that will take almost a year to be ready. >

Considering his main argument for not doing it almost a year ago in terms of a feard reaction from Russia has been disproved via the other nations Inc UK already spending non Soviet era armor. I don't see what there is to think about.
But if he won't, Germany should re-evaluate the plea with old rules about re-arming via the 2300 Leo tanks other nations have in storage they don't use. >

I guess Biden has to make a phone call to Berlin once again.... >

Britain already made the escalation with the first shipment of tanks.  Get off your ass, it's already covered. >

I think they already moved the goalposts by saying they are waiting for the US to send tanks first. >

This sort of approach is likely why Poland may actually win big in the coming decades when it comes to tank exports. Since in addition to buying K2s, they are getting the technical package to build them, we might start seeing most of Europe rearm itself not with a next generation of Leopards but with Polish built K2 or K3s. >

Yeah. No.
For one, the K2 uses several german-made or designed parts. 
Two, the K2 is ultimately the same generation of tank as the Leopard. A later part of it, but ultimately the same.
Most of Europe already has Leopards. If they want more tanks, they'll just order additional ones. And if they want to replace them entirely, they'll go with something from the next-gen, and the only ones currently working on that are KMW/Nexter and General Dynamics. >

Note I included the next generation tank being planned, the K3. And countries in the east like Romania, Bulgaria, the Balkans can't exactly afford the western premium, especially not for tanks. So the cheaper good enough tank designed to work with the latest technologies to replace Soviet tanks may be quite attractive, especially if they also get the chance to build some of the parts. >

Bulgaria and romania are both in talks to acquire Leopard 2s already tho.
Slovakia & the Czechs already definitely will too, altho they get them for free in exchange for material supplied to Ukraine. >

Need a source for Romania as well. The Beretta ARX contract seemed a done deal and yet nothing happened. Leopards being "in talks" means nothing even if true. >

While Scholz fiddles, Ukraine burns.