>

The Dnipro delta. Hmm. Russia is trying to keep its hold on the mouth of the river and Ukraine is fighting back.
Wish we could provide more.
No country should suffer Russian aggression. >

Who didn't see that coming when June HI:MA:RS got going.  Plenty of cope on Russia's supposedly unlimited ammo stocks and how cheap/easy to make shells - ignoring logistics of supply and use.
Same goes for missiles. Same goes for trucks.  Same goes for mobiks.
Ukraine doesn't have to beat the entirety of Russia. Just carve them out of their country one slice at a time. >

For those who say "Iran is already sanctioned enough":
This is nonsense, sanctions (especially from Europe) are actually pretty lenient. >

Also this is a typical "argument" by people who fundamentally do not understand diplomacy and politics.
For each perceived mis-step there has to be a specific sanction. This sanction is the cost that has been attached to misbehaviour. All existing sanctions are in response to past misbehaviour. Therefore it doesn’t matter if existing sanctions seem to be high already. >


For each perceived mis-step there has to be a specific sanction. 

It's clear that specific sanctions for particular mis-steps were not punishing enough >

Interesting that they mention that replenished VDV units are being thrown at Soledar. I didn't hear that. So it's Wagner reserves at Bakhmut and the best military units at Soledar. Really does sound like a last-ditch effort to make progress. >

Reports last night were that VDV were pulled in to Bakhmut to maintain pressure and frontline Wagner troops, rather than prisoner Mobiks, were involved in the frontal assault on Soledar.  
​
The one disappointing element is that everything appears to be coordinated for the first time across most of the front with pressure maintained on Bakhmut, advance attempts in Adriivka direction and increased shelling around Kremmina. So they are really throwing everything at the Soledar push and trying to tie up UA reserves elsewhere. I can't really remember seeing any such coordination previously. 
​
That level of coordination is doubly surprising to see with Lapin, who both Wagner and the Chechens have openly mocked, being appointed head of the Russian Army Main staff today.  Hopefully this was coordinated before his appointment and it will be back to one upmanship attempts and infighting from now. >

I suppose Russia was bound to get better at this eventually. It's just weird how often they follow that pattern, suffering some of the most lopsided defeats in history early in a war, and then completely flipping the script later on. 
But of course Ukraine has gotten more competent too, so as long as Russia doesn't achieve great success here the Russians will probably go back to throwing each other under the bus for awhile. >

With other words: Soledar has not fallen and people can stop dooming. Also shows how pathetic Russia has become: sacrificing thouands for places with no tactical importance. >

And also even if it falls it’s because Ukraine is playing it smart keeping their soldiers alive while Russia throws them in the meat grinder giving them a pyrrhic victory. >

United24 - donate directly to government of Ukraine
Support Ukraine Now - other ways to help >

You just know when they announce they "killed" 600 Ukrainians they were all but admitting that was their loss count.  Because they can't allow themselves to be shown as incapable of tit-for-tat. >

The fuck is a "foreign intelligence provocation" in this context? >

Can't allow the foreign intelligences to demand we pay the promised compensation to relatives. So much better when people just disappear. >

Ah, I see >

Every responsible country should be looking at this war and thinking, "holy shit, we need a procurement plan to massively increase our ammunition stockpiles or an industrial plan to scale up production within a few months. >

They said that after WW1.
And WW2.
And the Korean War... >

What’s old is new; flak cannons command and conquer style >

There are a lot of early cold-war era AA guns that I feel like are probably just a radar upgrade, a raspberry pi, and a good algorithm away from being drone swarm obliterators. >

That’s the spirit! Plug them in to network with the patriot radars for bonus points and away we go >

Good news, hopefully the Greek offer to wait with their deliveries of Marders is still on the table. That would help out a lot. >

"Nazi's have little love for Jews"
"KKK members not too fond of black folks" >

It's so sad too... they're missing out on all these great friendships because of hate. Only hurting themselves in the long run. >

Add to Cart: U.S. Missile Defense System
Quantity: 1
Shipping: Ukraine
Giftwrap: Yes >

Returns accepted until Jan 30th, 2023.
Would you like a gift reciept? >

It seems to me that the only real guarantee of Ukranian security is Ukranian military assets. Substantial deterrence on the ground ready to go.
If I was any neighboring country of Russia I'd be working on the same thing to remain autonomous. Or working on becoming a good puppet. 
A bully like Russia won't stop after they get a bruising in Ukraine. They'll reconstitute and pick a weaker target next time, with less support. >

Absolutely! Russia is a bully that only understands strength. This is something that some countries still don't understand. Diplomacy is for Russia only a ploy to buy more time to plan their crimes.
Ukraine (and all of the neighboring countries of Russia who don't want to get gobbled up) needs a military large and strong enough so that Russia won't even contemplate attacking them again. >

There was an agreement recently to aquire 88 F-35s in Canada to replace our old CF-18s. Also, Canada has a number of Leopard 2s. Hoping it's one of these or both. >

If I remember that story right, the first of those planes won't be delivered until 2026.
So while Ukraine may eventually get some free-or-almost-free, long-in-the-tooth jets from the Canadians, that could take quite a while. On the plus side, by the time they might get them, they'd be very much up to speed on NATO kit. >

I'm saying Canada might offer some CF-18s in the near future if they're in decent condition. >

This is a good update. The situation is still fluid. Sounds like the Ukrainian defenses held well enough, and hopefully reinforcements and new plans are ready.

The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The overall Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi is in Soledar himself. He took some photos yesterday and there are some photos just coming in from today showing him in a "bomb shelter in Soledar". 
If Syrskyi is personally supervising from a bunker in Soledar, I suppose the chances that Soledar will surrender are rather slim. >

Hmmm, he's a really good general - would prefer for him to be out of personal danger. >

agreed, but having a general that close is great for morale and he might be able to call in support that otherwise wouldn't have been an option. >

We have many many programs which generally boil down to "Train the Trainer".
We have been doing this for quite some time. >

I just wish that wolfhound was a Bradley. >

They have different uses, pros and cons.
The wolfhound is better armored, more likely to survive mine, ied, and RPG attacks.
The bradley would be more capable in terms of firepower, especially anti-tank. >


...wolfhound is better armored,..

I do not believe that is correct.  
MRAPs have great armor protection compared to a Humvee or truck/bus.  Also great compared to a ballist vest or helm.  
Bradleys have fragile lingerie armor when compared to a main battle tank like the M1 Abrams.  
Armor being "good" or "bad" is relative to the class of vehicle and what weapons you expect to defend against. >

I found no mention of the number of donated AMX-10 RC. Is that a significant one or just a symbolic one ? >

In French here
Nothing official yet but it would be 10 first then 30 total for the first wave.
The French army is waiting for the periodic delivery of the Jaguar to the active unit in order to free some AMX-10 RC. >

I heared  the number 30 on France24 too. >

Strelkov is a dead man walking. He'll never get what he wants, which is a great thing all around. He's pissing off a lot of people and must be becoming a liability for whoever it is that's protecting him. He might be Patrushev's creature. >

The 80 civilian contractors that were killed by a HIMARS strike on a school in occupied Lantrativka on December 16th were not there to rebuild infrastructure as LPR officials have claimed, but rather to dig trenches.
Source: Radio Svoboda investigation | Google-translated >

Any person with half a brain sees the similarities between Putin and Hitler’s personal histories.
Grew up during a patriotic time and early in adulthood experience the collapse of that system. 
Proceeded by years of hardship for their entire nation and a reduction in it’s total territory.
Became fervently ambitious about re-establishing the glory that the weak leaders of the past had destroyed, that an outside force had deprived them of. 
Quite literally, Putin, Hitler and many other people across history and across the entire world have developed this same deluded view of the world due to their personal history.
It’s a psychological development effect that happens when certain people go through nationalistic indoctrination and then in early adulthood experience the collapse of that system and the longing for the re-establishment of the past glory.
In many ways it resembles WWII. Putin invades Chechnya, but it’s pushed aside because it isn’t important and the territorial dispute is “reasonable”. 
Putin invades Georgia. OK, 2nd invasion, but still seems reasonable-ish and what can you realistically do about it anyway?
Putin invades Crimea and the Donbas… OK the pattern is emerging and encroaching further into Europe.
Putin stages a blitzkrieg of the entire nation of Ukraine… OK, now we’re at the “France never could have seen it coming!” Phase and it finally clicks that Putin won’t stop until he has East Germany back under Soviet rule. >

Well said >

Ukrainian MoD update from just now seems to have good news

The enemy is conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Lyman directions, and is trying to improve the tactical position in the Kupyan direction. He concentrates his efforts on capturing the Donetsk region within the administrative border, without success.

And according to faux-Girkin:

Soledar - critically difficult, to the end.
46th Airmobile Brigade at the moment practically recaptures the heroism of 36th and Azov from this spring.

[Edit] Ukrainians apparently now claim to be in control of Kuzmine, last village on the road to Kreminna. >

I think Kuzmine happened some time back. It was posted then that Russia was shelling it and Ukraine repelling attacks there. The conclusion then was that yes they have it and are now outside Kreminna. Ukraine didn't announce it, so it's unnoticed. Though this front doesn't seem to get any attention, I'm not even sure there have been any map changes to reflect this. 
But there's a reason Russia moved their administration staff out of Kreminna and supposedly added reinforcements. >

I thought they removed him after the last debacle but he's back and with more power. Amazing.
Btw not connected or anything but didn't France get rid of their head of intelligence because he failed in his job about this war. >

We did. >

I really like one of the reasons given for sacking him: "lack of mastery of subjects". Such an understated way to put it. >

No I think this is right. We had the intelligence, but the interpretation was invalid because it was estimated that it would make no sense to launch the attack when acting rationale. The issue was that Putin acted irrationally based on our intelligence data, which is something that surprised us. This interpretation factor turned valid data into a wrong conclusion. >

Daily DefMon3 update >

From 24.02.2022 to 10.01.2023 (Day 321) estimated Russian losses so far (change since previous day):
112470 (+710) Personnel
3084 (+4) Tanks
6154 (+7) Armored Personnel Vehicles
2073 (+4) Artillery Systems
434 (+0) MLRS
217 (+0) Anti-aircraft Warfare Systems
285 (+0) Aircraft
275 (+0) Helicopters
1860 (+4) UAV operational-tactical level
723 (+0) Missiles
17 (+1) Warships / Boats
4817 (+8) Other vehicles
183 (+0) Special Equipment >

I wonder what the boat is. If raptor class or something smaller. Anything bigger I feel we would have heard about. They don’t have many of those raptor class boats left. >

Im guessing it’s a raptor, but I’m giddy at this point to see any new boat loss, I missed them >

Putin is a man with no conscience. His eyes show he is loooooong past the point of human connection.
The way he casually lies, the complete lack of care for even his own associates, and the sarcastic way he communicates. Like everything is some kind of joke to him. He doesn't take anything seriously. People are literally killed in front of him and he just shrugs as if someone told a flat joke on a sitcom and goes right back to eating a fancy dinner. Casually threatening the nuclear death of billions as if he was ordering a cheeseburger. 
I agree with the Japanese foreign minister. There needs to be a defensive alliance for all of the world's democracies (as well as holding each other to a high democratic standard to prevent backsliding) NATO should be reformed to include countries outside of Europe. As long as monsters like Putin and Kim Jong-Un exist, then that is an existential threat to democracy. >

Yep. 
The world needs to move on from dictators. >

Non democracies are all illegitimate governments. The power to govern comes from the consent of the governed. >

I agree.
That is the definition of democracy.
Demo = the people >

Cracy = not crazy. Unlike dictators >

How the “patriotic” education system puts pressure on Russian schoolchildren: so that children are not forced to support the war, families sometimes have to simply leave the country
Another look at the creep of propaganda (masked as Patriotism .. what is the difference?) into the Russian education system.  It's in Russian, so hit that translate button >

Latest General Staff update from 6:00 today, in relation to Soledar, mentions the following:
- "the enemy continues attacking in Bakhmut, Avdiiivka and Lyman directions"
- "AFU repulsed attacks in the areas of [...] of Luhansk region and Soledar, [...] of Donetsk region".
Since there hasn't been any definitive footage from either side or information about AFU pulling out, I'd judge the current situation as inconclusive. >

On ISW it said the reason why Wagner is focusing on the salt mines is because Prigozhin wants to seize them to house troops in them (as well as some disproven theories about old WW1 weapons being there). 
If that's true and Wagner takes the mines then I reckon that there will be a new headline not long after about a HIMAR hitting the mines, collapsing it and trapping hundreds of Russians inside. >


as well as some disproven theories about old WW1 weapons being there

well this might as well be true, given the state of Russian weapons.
they are scrapping the barrel so low that they will need WW1 weapons soon >

I still really don't know where all the fires are coming from. It's not Ukraine, that makes no sense. Is everybody in Russia trying to cash in their insurance at the same time? >

Russia has terrible fire safety, so frequent fires are fairly normal. We are just paying more attention. There have been rumours that a few fires set a more strategic locations are from an internal Russian resistance, but hard to tell if that's true. >


are from an internal Russian resistance, but hard to tell if that's true.

And if it is: Bravo to them! >

Warships/boats?! What did I miss?! Stupid sleep keeping me outta the loop… >

Ukraine sunk a Russian cutter near the Dnipro delta. So definitely a smaller boat, designed for river warfare instead of open water. Still, a good boat to sink as that’s the type of boat you’d use for a cross river raid or to interdict traffic coming out of the river. >

Absolutely. They’ll need to get across en masse at some point. The destruction of any potential impediment is a plus!