comment: >
  
  Hungary will ratify during their next legislative session, which starts in February 
  Türkiye will wait until after their next election cycle, which apparently is in June. 
  The latter is posturing, but ultimately irrelevant. Russia isn't about to start another war in the next six months. It would be nice to get this over with, but in the grand scheme of things, the delay isn't going to matter
context: Yes, it is likely, they just have to wait until the next Turkish election. Erdoğan is mainly trying to look tough and will be more amenable to compromise once he has secured power for another term. >
  
  Erdogan won't allow anyone else to win the election. That is a non starter. >
  
  Türkiye doesn't have fair elections, but that doesn't mean Erdoğan can't lose power, nor does it mean Erdoğan doesn't care about his popularity. >
  
  Exactly. Erdoğan's power in Turkey is very great, but not limitless. He can influence elections unfairly, yes, but he lacks the power to falsify them entirely.