comment: >
  
  I read in another comment the higher caste just paid wagner to get their sentencie erased while they didnt even go to the frontline. I'm pretty sure the lower caste is rotting in a trench in Bakhmut.
context: Just reading about the Bradley Fighting Vehicle... Russia has gotten itself into a complete morass. Just everything they bring to the field the rest of the world provides equal and opposite strength plus a bit more, bleeding them out.
  It's a fair argument that the restricted flow of equipment to Ukraine in one sense prolongs the fight but it casts the whole war as a situation that can cease anytime Russia wants it to by GTFO, which hopefully will mean a lasting peace. >
  
  
  it casts the whole war as a situation that can cease anytime Russia wants it to by GTFO
  
  That's a huge part of it. The strategy employed gives them minimal propaganda to use on their population. >
  
  From 24.02.2022 to 05.01.2023 (Day 316) estimated Russian losses so far (change since previous day):
  109720 (+810) Personnel
  3041 (+3) Tanks
  6108 (+2) Armored Personnel Vehicles
  2051 (+12) Artillery Systems
  426 (+2) MLRS
  215 (+) Anti-aircraft Warfare Systems
  284 (+1) Aircraft
  271 (+1) Helicopters
  1844 (+2) UAV operational-tactical level
  723 (+0) Missiles
  16 (+0) Warships / Boats
  4759 (+14) Other vehicles
  182 (+1) Special Equipment >
  
  Damn, it was barely 15 days ago when they reached 100k and now they stacked 10k more. >
  
  With the forced conscription and lack of training these numbers will accelerate. At this point Russia is just sending untrained men to their deaths. Things will really accelerate when Crimea becomes a focal point. >
  
  It's really weird how Russian society doesn't react. No doubt propaganda and sheer ignorance is a huge factor, but it's hard to have over 100K deaths go unnoticed. The TV clips of "festive celebrations" on Russian state TV are strange given the backdrop of the war.
  One young woman is killed by the Iranian regime, and their citizens start revolting. >
  
  
  It's really weird how Russian society doesn't react
  
  They simply aren't aware 700-800 of their guys are getting killed every day. They don't see these numbers. >
  
  dat salami keeps getting sliced >
  
  I'm still waiting for SEAD over Crimea with F-16s. Hopefully by summer. >
  
  Just giving them two F-16s that run two daily sorties to pick off one SAM system a day with their HARMs would be great just to keep the Russian SAM batteries off their feet and think twice about turning on their radars. >
  
  Anyone else noticed that there is less russian propaganda on Reddit recently? Did the troll farms stopped to receive payment? >
  
  Holidays in Russia until the 9th >
  
  That makes sense.  New Years is THE big holiday of the year there, i.e. equivalent in spirit/importance to American Christmas except celebrated by the whole population as opposed to merely a large section of society. >
  
  They did get a nice selection of HIMARS fireworks this year >
  
  Ain't no party like a Partisan party! >
  
  Walking down the street with a molotov, sipping on gin and juice. >
  
  I even got to break out my AK. Today was a good day. >
  
  Damn i didn't expect France to be the first to send tanks, even if they are small ones and technically not even a tank. >
  
  Poland was the first to send tanks and other Baltic nations followed iirc. >
  
  Yeah i forgot to mention i meant western technology. >
  
  When Russia goes low - It keeps going >
  
  Pretty sure they got better supplies in WWII >
  
  American tins of beef and US cigarettes. >
  
  Exactly. First they invade and now they want a ceasefire. If they want to stop fighting so much they can just leave Ukraine completely. >
  
  So. Damn. Happy. He. Won. >
  
  I often wonder if Russians truly believe that we Europeans are starving and can't get hot water or that we have to eat our pets to survive. Not much has changed except that energy bills increased so you have to lower the thermostat but that's generally it. >
  
  
  energy bills increased so you have to lower the thermostat
  
  And with the mild temps this year, even that isn't to painful. Here it is 1/5/2023, and usually we average 10-20'f daily with 12" of snow by now. We've been having Rain and 40-50'f days. if Europe is have the same conditions (and I've heard many reports saying just this), most people aren't very desperate for heat. >
  
  Also, trying to fuck around with heating in a region that invented energy conservation methods like better insulation, double or tripple glazed windows and high efficiency heat pumps is a bit ridiculous. (Granted, not everyone has that but there is enough money, technology and now incentive to make it accessible even more.) >
  
  Former player of Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres sports director, Vyacheslav Shevchuk, shared details of the release brother, Sergei, from Russian captivity in an interview with Ukrainian Football.
  
  "My brother was caught up in Mariupol. Together with his battalion of border guards and Azov fighters, he defended Mariupol.  Then later, they relocated to Azovstal. Sergei was one of the last to surrender, because the order to draw back the enemy's troops had been carried out, but it no longer made sense to defend against the superior forces of the enemy," Vyacheslav Shevchuk said.
  The official of Veres also said that his brother Serhiy needs rehabilitation.
  "My brother has a quite long recovery ahead, because his body was badly damaged. Sergei lost 27 kilograms [60lbs] in captivity, his ribs were broken, his internal organs were damaged, and he had problems with his teeth.
  It feels like he's back from a concentration camp. My brother survived only thanks to his strong character, willpower and resilience," Shevchuk admitted.
  
  
  ^(Vyacheslav Shevchuk is one of the most experienced football players who played at Shakhtar. The  football coach became a Shakhtar player in 2000. Later, Vyacheslav played for other clubs for several years, and in 2005 he returned to Shakhtar.)
  ^(Shevchuk set a record as the oldest captain in the history of the Ukrainian national team, trying on the captain's armband at the age of 37. He took part in the 2016 European Championship in France. In total, as part of Shakhtar, he played 239 matches, scored four goals and became the owner of 20 trophies.) >
  
  I think the treatment of the prisoners is not told enough. >
  
  I think most of us understand that Russia has no lower limit on the immoral nasty shit they do to anyone under their power or control.
  I'm just amazed that any of them were released alive. >
  
  Patriot as well. Nice >
  
  This whole war confuses me on a demographic level. Russia for a while has been suffering from a demographic issue that has seen their natural population decline for most of the last 30 years that seemed to have reversed in 2013 after an average annual decline of over -700,000 during the 90s. Now the decline recent years:
  2018 = -200,00+
  2019 = -300,00+
  2020 = - 700,000+
  2021 = -1,000,000+
  We may attribute the spike in 2020 & 2021 due to COVID-19 which is still a pandemic, now imagine the numbers now due to this war that started in 2022.  It’s absurd that a country with such demographic issues would undertake this “special operation”. Ukraine has similar demographic issues but I sense that after they succeed in this war they’ll have a baby boom while Russia’s decline will only accelerate considering the lack of young males and isolated economy. >
  
  The decline will certainly accelerate.  Large scale government distrust has resulted in few vaccinations in Russia, plus war casualties, plus economic insecurity, plus draft dodgers who don't return, plus professional workforce that don't return.  But no one ever said this war was supposed to make sense.  
  But I'd quibble on one point.  The 'baby boom' in the US was a prolonged economic event that lasted from the 1940s until the 70s.  Most US males did not serve in the armed forces in 1941, and most of those that did survived to have children (military casualties were around 3%).  War is bad for your economy, not good.  The US was an exception only because in a global capitalistic market value is relative and everything else was completely destroyed.  That's not what will happen here.  
  Ukraine is looking at a harsher reality than that both economically and militarily.  I don't see conditions for a population bump, especially if the diaspora doesn't completely return.  It won't be anything like Russia's decline then or now, however. >
  
  The baby boom is already happening. A lot of babies were made back in march and april before men went to US or Britain or EU for training. 
  Economically, Russian assets are already being seized globally to pay for reconstruction. Also, Ukraine will tap the natural gas reserves in Donbass and the black sea and become the new energy supplier to europe. Agriculture will also be developed  even further as this is the breadbasket of europe, not to mention the IT industry which is one of the best in world and many advances in AI are already being made. Ciklum was a leading global IT developer years ago. 
  In the final years of their terminal demographic collapse, most russians will die of TB, AIDS, liver failure as alcoholism will somehow become even higher after their defeat, covid variants, drug addiction and suicide. >
  
  Gratz russia. You're such a big bad boy now. Tough masculine macho manly MAN country. Testosterone overload! pounds chest
  Next up, an enemy kindergarten with an IMPERIALIST NAZI Fisher-Price weapon depot. >
  
  
  an enemy kindergarten with an IMPERIALIST NAZI Fisher-Price weapon depot
  
  Don't forget the Hitlerjugend training grounds in the yard of the kindergarten. >
  
  Unlikely they will send Leopard 2A7s, at least not this early. I think Germany will follow with France and the US and send more mobile vehicles like the Puma or Marder. >
  
  According to the newspaper in question (Süddeutsche Zeitung, which is either #1 or #2 in reputation in Germany), all of this including earlier US and French announcements was coordinated between them and Germany. >
  
  I live in Essex, one of the counties bordering London. Can confirm hamster is delicious and a great substitute for rat. My family has now ordered 365 more for the year, money is no expense for this new delicacy.
  Wait we only ate them because of money issues? Nonsense! We're just monsters here. >
  
  Hamsterdam is famous for this I believe, check it out! >
  
  NYT writes that Russian commanders encourage rape in the occupied territories. >
  
  Another reminder that it's not "just another war" or "just like Iraq war". Russia needs to be fully canceled, Russians should be banned from entering Western countries, cut off from western goods and services, international organizations, sports, etc. 
  We live in 21st century and countries that openly commit genocide face absolutely zero repercussions. Humanity won't progress if realpolitik remains the norm. >
  
  Red army tactics. They need to die off with Russia. >
  
  
  This morning, the very powerful Baovna Viktorivna visited there.
  The flights were to the base of the Katsaps, where they were taken
  for 5 days. There were up to 1,000 personnel and equipment.
  According to preliminary data, at least 100,300, at least minus 20
  officers, others are considered missing. The debris is still being
  sorted out.
  
  Something's getting lost in translation... >
  
  Sorta but not really, ~~300~~ 200 means KIA, 100 people were KIA. ~~200~~ 300 is wounded. It leads to a lot of confusion but that's their system.
  Edit: or the other way around, 200 is kia and 300 is wounded, but the officer comment is weird to attach to the wounded list if they think they killed them. Still, not a mistranslation, just a different system. >
  
  Ah, my apologies for the misinterpretation. Thank you for explaining. >
  
  It would be funny if Ukraine launched a bunch of helium balloons into Russia to make them waste million dollar missiles shooting them down. >
  
  UKRAINE PLEASE >
  
  That's the video where he "talks about exciting new opportunities for wounded and injured members of Wagner group - if they lost a leg, they can become sappers, then they would just need one more "iron thing" if they lose another leg." >
  
  This morning's What's on Fire in Russia Today? brought to you by: agricultural machinery >
  
  It's pretty obvious all these big fires are not just coincidence or insurance scams... it's all related to their invasion of Ukraine. >
  
  Insurance scam can be related to the invasion of Ukraine too:
  
  firemen being mobilised
  liquidating assets before the economy hyper-inflates or the ~~thug~~ government ~~steals~~ nationalises one's illiquid assets, to convert to safer assets and/or to flee the country >
  
  Lol, "refugee centers".  Filtration camps. >
  
  Berlin announces "qualitatively new step" in terms of arms deliveries to Ukraine. This is most likely going to be Marder IFVs in accordance with US deliveries of Bradleys. Leopards are being discussed, but most likely won't yet be part of this "step".
  Source (in German) >
  
  As pointed out prior by u/Aldarund, that was before Putin’s directive. A directive that doesn’t change much considering Ukraine has zero gain letting Russians enjoy their holiday scot free and were never going to agree lol. >
  
  There also actual tweet in response to putin after  that Russia should withdraw first , than will be ceasefire >
  
  It should also be noted that technically Wagner isn’t under RU MIL control, so *even if* Russian troops did abide by the supposed ceasfire, Wagner troops don’t have to. >
  
  That's a lot of artillery taken out for one day. >
  
  It always brightens my day to see double digit Russian artillery losses in these posts. >
  
  The HAWK systems are Spain’s and have already been delivered I believe. We’re only providing missiles. >
  
  The big deal isn't so much the weapons they carry.  BMPs are equivalently well armed as the Bradleys and Marders.  The big deal (I think) is going to be optics and sensors.  These vehicles are top of the line in both regular and thermal optics.  Whoever sees first can shoot first.  Used as a mobile reserve, something like a Bradley can get to a hot spot in the line quickly, identify and target the major threats from a great distance and kill them.  
  I think the Ukrainians will be less successful using them as a battle taxi.  In such a tank and ATGM rich environment, Bradleys and Marders will be just as vulnerable as any other vehicle.  But used defensively?  Serious upgrade in firepower for the Ukrainians. >
  
  bradleys have tows, marders have milan atgm's... bmp's not so much iirc. >
  
  With Russia's leadership needing another mobilization (public, it's been ongoing really) to even stay in the fight in the face of their offensive grinding to a halt and even their core capabilities like their ability to fire artillery reduced, now before they even announce it, they're being told they'll probably be facing western tanks, in a series of multinational statements of support, it reminds me of the Russian "... and then it got worse".
  It's got to be grinding on the leadership how every time they think they might have an answer, even a bad one, the west has an inexpensive (financially and politically) response that's just going to fuck everything up for them. This is going to consistently feed into them questioning their willingness to support Putin or pull the plug.
  (And no, this isn't intended to devalue the Ukrainian effort or losses, so ... just fucking don't with that, ok? They want this equipment and any additional capability to fight) >
  
  Russia thinks it is a peer of NATO... In reality it is a shitshow that Australia (with some allied industrial support) could shit on.
  Russia's economy is on par with Australia.........
  And they hope to beat the Allies while we're not even breaking a sweat? In an economic and industrial context, it's a fucking joke.
  This is probably the biggest indicator of the complete shit-bundle of intel that Putin is fed. >
  
  Australia < emus. Russia = Australia. 
  Conclusion: send in the emus >
  
  Having been run down and attacked by one... YES
  NB: they are basically modern day Velociraptors... Avoid their talons at all costs...
  Yes I know they have 'claws' but seriously - not fun. >
  
  It's January. What Russia envisioned the situation would be by this point is:
  The US's support was supposed to be crippled and the country in a state of political chaos as a new Republican Super Majority in both houses tried to Impeach Biden.
  The population of Europe was supposed to be on the verge of overthrowing their governments as their economies collapsed and they froze to death.
  And the people of Ukraine were either supposed to all be begging their leader for a peace deal or overwhelming their allies with a refugee crisis after all their power was knocked out.
  Russia annexed what they took, launched a wave of mobilization, and drained a large amount of their cruise missile stockpiles...all to buy time to get to this point.
  Boy...this did not got well for them. >
  
  It's not hard to imagine that things would have gone fine for them if, say, they attacked during the Trump administration. >
  
  i'm sure they actually meant too but COVID got in the way.  Imagine if it was the Pandemic that prevented WWIII >
  
  That's terrifyingly plausible.  All the dominoes were in place but they hesitated a few months too long.
  2020 was less of a dumpster fire than ww3, so we got that going for us. >
  
  The dead know only one thing: it is better to be alive. >
  
  Gut feeling is we’re gonna see a substantial surge of armor coming just in time for post-mud season movements >
  
  I guess next Ramstein meeting will be spectacular. >
  
  He’s basically telegraphing marders or leopards. Marders are closer to what’s being sent and perhaps more likely. >
  
  That and an additional Patriot battery. Goddamn Germany, way to make it extra spicy. >
  
  Explaining Orthodox Christmas for anyone unfamiliar:
  Everyone* celebrates Christmas on December 25th. It's just that while Western Christianity has completely switched over to the Gregorian calendar, a lot of Eastern Orthodoxy still uses the Julian calendar. The difference is really just whether century years are leap years or not. On the Julian calendar, they always are, but on the Gregorian calendar, they only are if they're divisible by 400. (e.g. 2000 was a leap year, but not 1900 or 2100) As a result, the Julian calendar is currently 13 days behind the Gregorian calendar, so even though they'll be celebrating Christmas on Julian December 25th, it'll look like Gregorian January 7th
  The complication and the reason I included that asterisk, though, is Epiphany. It's celebrated 12 days after Christmas on January 6th, with Gregorian Epiphany currently being the day before Julian Christmas. But because the Armenians celebrate the Nativity on Epiphany, this sometimes gets conflated with Julian Christmas currently being 13 days after Gregorian Christmas. And to complicate things even more, while the Armenian Apostolic Church celebrates it on Gregorian Epiphany, the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem celebrates it on Julian Epiphany, which is currently Gregorian January 19th
  So to summarize:
  
  
  Western Christianity- Gregorian December 25th
  
  
  Most of Eastern Orthodoxy (including Russia)- Julian December 25th = Gregorian January 7th
  
  
  Some Armenian churches- Gregorian January 6th
  
  
  Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem- Julian January 6th = Gregorian January 19th
  
  
  EDIT:
  Actually, Easter addendum. This is broadly also what happens for Easter. We both look for an approximated full moon in a certain range of dates, and just celebrate on the following Sunday. But because of that offset, in any given year, one of three things will happen:
  
  
  The Gregorian calendar notices a full moon and the Julian calendar also notices it before a Sunday arrives, so Gregorian and Julian Easter are on the same day
  
  
  The Gregorian calendar notices a full moon, but a Sunday arrives before the Julian calendar notices it, so Julian Easter is a week later
  
  
  The Gregorian calendar notices a full moon before the Julian calendar even starts looking, so Julian Easter is around a month later
  
  
  EDIT: Also, there's technically also the Revised Julian calendar, which fixes the too many leap years problem in a different way, but since it currently aligns with the Gregorian calendar, I'm not going to complicate things even more >
  
  Nakhimov has been refitting for twenty years and Kuznetsov is a slow motion train wreck. Neither of them will be operable any time soon, if ever. >
  
  German government rhetoric seems to have taken a turn to the more confrontational side. I like it. >
  
  It's Baerbock, she and her party (Greens) have always been like that. It's Scholz who's dragging his feet. >
  
  Fuck Russian trolls and their lies. Fuck trolls in general, but I'm focusing on the ones spewing war propaganda. 
  You'd think their paychecks would start to bounce due to the sanctions. >
  
  I would not participate in the TikTok challenge of running across that. >
  
  Nothing changed in the past 80 years it seems. I'm not religious, but I hope these russians rot in hell. >
  
  
  Nothing changed ~~in the past 80 years it seems~~. I'm not religious, but I hope these russians rot in hell.
  
  this issue goes back centuries, all the way back to the mongols. >
  
  That’s the reply I was hoping for. Hard no. >
  
  Just saw the news about France providing AMX-10 RC and Bastions, Germany providing Marders and US providing Bradleys… the year is starting good.
  I hope it’s because they realise russia is one final blow away from being defeated, rather than from fear of a new attack or something
  But in the end it doesn’t matter why, it only matters that it’s happening and I love it >
  
  Yep, I wonder if the next package will be a whopper - specifically designed to make Russian’s orthodox Christmas even more miserable! >
  
  I like to think that when the Allies announce more military assets, those military assets aren't two weeks or more away, they're already there. >
  
  Wagner's attack on Bakhmut didn't go as planned, so Prigozhin is pointing fingers at everyone else. His window of opportunity is slowly closing shut. More here. >
  
  
  His window of opportunity is slowly closing shut
  
  Many in Russia fear windows. >
  
  As the saying goes: "One man's window of opportunity is another man's door to the afterlife." >
  
  Previous post
  Day 316 of my updates from Kharkiv.
  Today it was yet again very quiet, there were no missile or drone strikes anywhere, and we had no big air raid alerts either, but as usual all the towns that are close to the border or to the frontline get shelled every single day. Kherson, Kupiansk and many other smaller towns were shelled again, but thankfully there were no reports of civilian casualties that we know of.
  The Russians asking for a Christmas truce is just laughable, but after seeing some comments under the news about the truce it’s disappointing how many people believe in Russian words and will now be calling us warmongers for rejecting a “truce” that would have never been upheld anyway. So it was fine when Russians did massive missile strikes on our cities during New Year’s Eve, but rejecting a fake truce that wasn’t proposed in good faith is unacceptable? I just don’t get people that think that way.
  All those news coming out now about us soon getting quite a lot of western IFVs and even another Patriot battery are just incredible, finally the red line is getting pushed back. It will certainly open the possibility of us also getting western MBTs relatively soon, and it is even already getting talked about now, which is great. I guess Patriots were what opened the flood gates for a bunch of new weapon systems getting approved for transfer, or maybe they were all being discussed at the same time. It’s great news either way. >
  
  Personally, I suspect that the US has been moving to make Bradleys happen for a while (training, establishing logistics, etc), but publicly saying that they don't want to give them to Ukraine to prevent Russia from realizing they need to prepare. >
  
  Absolutely. They may also have wanted the funding bill to go through before announcing the Bradleys.  
  People still don't give Biden and the Pentagon enough credit for how craftily they have handled this. >
  
  Western announcements of support, heavier weapons, air defense more frequent and more unified than ever today. >
  
  Perfect response. >
  
  Seriously - was just thinking that. I am so grateful that Biden has Putin’s number. >
  
  if Ukraine prevails I reckon Biden will have a fucking statue in every single Andriivka >
  
  Russia has had submarines with nuclear missiles operating near the US East Coast for decades.
  The frigate with "hypersonic missiles" is just psychological propaganda. >
  
  It's so annoying when you think about how the russians were allowed to operate in the past 35 years. NATO only hesitantly, and under great care not to threaten the big bad russian bear, took eastern european countries under its wings. Russia on the other hand was allowed to have ICBMs and scores of troups in Königsberg, suppress, harass, and downright invade its neighbouring states (Georgia, Chechnya, Ukraine), humiliate european countries, and have it's president showcase his narcisstic strongman idioty by leveraging anti-american sentiments wherever possible.
  Why was a third world country allowed to be that way? I guess the answer was corruption. This country should've been put into its place after the fall of the USSR (which was more of a russian vehicle for world dominance first and foremost). >
  
  Russia was allowed to have things their way because it helped to make US and Western Europe richer. Cheap fuel to import and huge market ripe for exploitation make a mouth watering offer. >
  
  Its already started; the "only 50 bradleys" concern trolls and russian copelords. It is just like the "only 3 himars" shit we had for a month. 
  If you idiots haven't gotten it yet the firehose isn't gonna turn off. >
  
  Man, it isn't even a firehose anymore. Dam is about to break. >
  
  So if Ukraine doesn't stop fighting,  and they shouldn't, he can call them godless satanistic facists in his media
  And if they stop he can reinforce/move is troops and resupply them >
  
  The toilet fixation again? Wtf Russia? >
  
  If true that's great news >
  
  Goddamnit France, your messaging is always a bit iffy but you really are breaking ground with these...
  Thank you! Now, US, Germany, UK, Australia, send more!!! (Us Aussies are going through vehicle replacements soon so should send more of our replaced kit) >
  
  So my understanding is that the Bradley over the Abrams has merits both logistically and strategically:
  
  The Bradley is easier to maintain/service for Ukrainians.
  The Bradley is lighter and more mobile, which works for the fast-assaults and skirmishes Ukraine performs.
  The Bradley can safely haul a squad to the front-lines where the Abrams cannot.
  The Bradley can still perform many of the duties the Abrams can w/ its auto-cannon and TOW missiles. 
  
  My questions:
  
  
  How do minefields impact using Bradleys for assaults? Do they essentially do a rolling barrage of artillery in attempt to clear mines or just risk it? Maybe it's little different than their operation now with light vehicles but I wonder how risky it is to have a crew + a full squad of infantry in a single vehicle (even if armored). 
  
  
  Do Russians have their own comparable Stugna / infantry-based AT guns? I've heard next-to-nothing on Russian use of these weapons. >
  
  The biggest thing is the laser rangefinder and gps can call in accurate artillery while suppressing the target. It can then use its TOW missiles and stabilized gun to defend any counter attack. It's a power platform that can suppress targets for artillery and infantry to perform combined arms to win battles. >
  
  Sounds like somebody needs a little more time to scrounge up another 100 missiles to launch at civilians >
  
  Good, Negotiations should start when all the Russians leave or liquidated. >
  
  Russia trying the ceasefire ploy.
  NATO, heres more and better weapons for Ukraine. >
  
  Nearly one year in and what has Russia gained... other than enmity, mistrust, disdain, more than 100,000 casualties, and a serious threat to their heretofore successful illegal annexation in Crimea? >
  
  Now, now. Let's be fair. They've also gained: Massive economic problems, heavy-duty sanctions, societal unrest, long term demographic challenges, the probable collapse of their arms export industry, slow corrosion of their infrastructure, home-grown partisans... The list goes on. >
  
  The level of casual snark in this guy's commentary is so high it's pretty much untranslatable. I love that he refers to Russians as "grave diggers" or something like "small arms trash" or "infantry rabble" using a word that is also a pun on "shooting range". >
  
  Light tanks are great, but secretly I wonder what the extra HIMARS mean.
  Were they limited by # of launchers and do they wanna fire even more? >
  
  There is no way they're firing anywhere near as rapidly as they can, it could allow them to fire at a similar rate but without having to drive them around as much. >
  
  Remember these murders when people ask why Ukraine won’t accept Putin’s Christmas truce. >
  
  That's why the IFVs are important. Slowly boiling the frog, building up to MBTs >
  
  ya its why ive been saying for months. We want quick victories but the ammount of planning and logistics going on right now in Ukraine for not just success but ultimate victory are in play. "Boil the Frog" is 100% right. small escalations of critical things. Jdams, HARMS, IVF will lead to tanks, Patriot will lead to F-16s. The US is literally boiling Russia alive one degree to 10 degrees at a time. >
  
  Vladdy didn’t just wake up one day and decide to launch a full invasion. He had been planning this and getting ready for it for YEARS! 
  This is it. This is him throwing everything he’s got at it. There is no ‘total war’, there is no ‘full mobilization’, that will magically conjure more weapons deliveries, more logistical capability, more firepower. If he could produce more weapons? He would have been doing it already. This is all there is, there ain’t no more.
  We’ve been hearing the same schlock from day one about how he might ‘step it up’ if things don’t turn around soon. Well… things didn’t turn around, not then, not today, and not tomorrow. What you see is what you get. >
  
  Yep.
  They're already digging in to T-62 stockpiles (and trying to modernise those that are working), sourcing ammunition from friends and conserving planes...
  Add to this, mobilisation and basic equipment issues and they're at a tipping point.
  Manpower is basically what they have left. Fun fact - manpower does not make an offensive, it makes a bloodbath.
  It will be dirty, costly and terrible but Ukraine has got this, the question is just time...
  Ukraine conducts offensives intelligently, Russia does not.
  Russia targets non-military targets, Ukraine does not.
  Russia treats captured and occupied people inhumanely, Ukraine does not.
  Ukraine has Russia beaten, how long can Putin prolong it without repercussions? Probably many years.
  So let us send more aid, donate where we can, pressure politicians where we can. We the Allies are many, rich, productive and strong, we can and should do this!
  /rant
  Sorry, I got carried away >
  
  
  ...
  Ukraine conducts offensives intelligently, Russia does not.
  
  Like I said a few days ago. Ukraine has an intelligence advantage both in reconnaissance and inside the head. >
  
  Fastest way to get a ceasefire for Christmas is to go home. >
  
  How many rockets will fall travelling that 5k distance before they reach the Ukrainian border >
  
  
  How many rockets will fall travelling that 5k distance before they reach the Ukrainian border
  
  The missiles don’t have to fly 5000 km, they’re just capable of doing so. Tu-95s have three times that range, which could be extended by refueling in flight. They’d be able to launch the missiles from the same ranges they were before, so you probably aren’t looking at more falling short than there are right now.
  What might change is the wear and tear on the bombers themselves. More flight time will require more maintenance and increases the risk of crashes, which could be impactful. >
  
  Also reaction time is increased to prepare missile interception, as the bombers need to fly for longer before releasing their payload >
  
  Beat me to posting here, though made sure to share it to the Live Thread! >
  
  Putin will call for a cease-fire but there won’t actually be one. He will just use it as propaganda to say that Ukraine attacked during the cease-fire. >
  
  I don't know if anyone else remembers the cease-fires and humanitarian corridors back when Mariopol was beseiged. Russia violated every one of them shortly after they agreed to it. >
  
  Been seeing a lot of excitement about the Bradleys, and I've been wondering: is the Bradley something the UA can just jump into, fresh out of the box? If not, how much prior training is required and how much of the UA has been adequately trained in preparation for Bradleys? >
  
  If they need training they'll get training.
  It ain't rocket surgery. >
  
  “It’s not rocket appliance” -Ricky from Trailer Park Boys. >
  
  Yeah, what comes around is all around. Ain't nothin' but water under the fridge. >
  
  We need two turnips in heat! >
  
  The armchair tactician in me assumes that the Wagner contract :"taking Bakhmut by the 31th of Dec 2022 24:00" has not been renewed.                        
  No End Year Bonus for Prigozhin who tried to blame the Army for the lack of support.             
  Now he is probably wondering about further contract termination and  being fired (upon) by Putin might prevent the Mafia boss to pay him for extra bonuses in the future.            
  The goals are probably low now ... there are Don't fuck up bonuses !!! >
  
  The war was lost for the russians at the very moment they retreated from Kherson, so the situation on the ground today is for russia to win time on the battlefield by sending their soldiers directly to their death in huge numbers in order to prevent further ukrainian advances - this sort of an artificial freece on the battlelines although moving forth and back by meters, gives Krimlin breath to think, reorganize, remobilization, rearming and a narrative to russian society that the ukrainians can go no further, which will calm every russian looking at putin and the russians are willing and ready to use almost unlimited  amounts of soldiers to win this war 
  However if the ukrainians are able to take just one more strategic important city from the russians, thats game over as the  russian society with high level authority even with lower level military backup, would revolt against one man >
  
  I kind of still feel like the pivotal moment was Hostomel. Once RU couldn't land their airborne troop and supplier carriers, the hopes to take Kiev in 3 days  (and arguably at all) were dashed. >
  
  There hasn’t been a pivotal moment. Not kherson, not Kiev nor Hostomel. Not in the same sense as Stalingrad let’s say. It is not that the Russians made one mistake or started to make mistakes at a said moment. It is just that they are simply not capable to fight the war they wanted. >
  
  This is probably an euphemism for "they are all dead."
  Prigozhin had no gov. positions and has no power to pardon anyone. >
  
  Implying that Russia has a functional legal system >
  
  
  they are tied up backfilling in the Baltic nations that donated their tanks to Ukraine.
  
  Maybe we'll see a reshuffle of who's backfilling what. Countries not willing to send tanks to Ukraine might be willing to send to baltic nations and then the UK could send the tanks destined for backfill to Ukraine. >
  
  Ukraine getting light tanks is amazing news! 😃 
  I hope Ukrainian pilots have been secretly training in friendly countries to fly the F16 or some other western jet. What a surprise it would be to the invaders if Ukraine flew in with modern jets that are more than a match for them! >
  
  I get being attached to your home town, but I really do not understand the civilians still insisting on staying in Bakhmut. >
  
  
  I really do not understand the civilians still insisting on staying in Bakhmut.
  
  Imagine approaching your latter years without very much except the home that you spent your entire life building.  You just about get by, surviving hand to mouth but with a roof over your head and somewhere warm to sleep.  If you leave, you have nothing.  Literally nothing.  Just the clothes on your back.  What will you eat?  Where will you sleep?  How will you survive?  You're old and frail, there's no work for you even if you were strong enough to do it.
  Why would you flee?  That way is just poverty and suffering and destitution.  You don't know anyone, or have any plan for where you'd go.  You'd be alone, somewhere unfamiliar, just a homeless old pauper begging for scraps.
  Wouldn't you stay in the home you'd built?  Where you have all the memories you'd made?  Where you raised your kids and made love to your wife?  Wouldn't you stay surrounded by your belongings, your pictures, your pets?  Sure, you risk being blown up while sleeping in your bed or worse... but isn't that a better way to go than cold and hungry sleeping alone in a doorway in some strange city you don't know? >
  
  It would be interesting if NATO eventually morphed into an alliance that all ran the same top of the line hardware. It has to be difficult to mish mash so many different operating platforms for any army. Regardless, Ukraine is probably going to be the best trained army in the world after victory. >
  
  NATO has been working on making sure their tanks can operate together for more than half the time that tanks have even been on the planet. They probably have it working as well as it can. >
  
  Almost every European country heavily regulated internal media last time they had wars within their borders.
  Why is it a problem when Ukraine does it? >
  
  It isn't a problem, it's just shills pushing it as an item. It makes a lot of sense to me to regulate media to block pro-russian propaganda from stirring up your country in war times. >
  
  From the Institute for the Study of War:
  
  Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces intend to launch a major counteroffensive throughout Ukraine in the spring of 2023. Budanov stated in an interview with ABC News published on January 4 that he expects fighting to be the most intense in March of 2023 and that the Ukrainian military is planning a major push in the spring that will liberate territory "from Crimea to Donbas" and deal "the final defeats to the Russian Federation."[13] Ukrainian officials have previously indicated that Ukrainian forces will attempt to maintain the initiative through a series of ongoing and subsequent counteroffensive operations in the winter of 2023.[14] This reportedly planned major Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring of 2023 would not be mutually exclusive with Ukrainian counteroffensive operations continuing this winter, as Ukrainian forces could use ongoing and subsequent counteroffensive operations this winter to set conditions for a larger counteroffensive operation in the spring. ISW has not observed any indicators that Ukrainian forces intend to halt counteroffensive operations this winter in order to conduct a major counteroffensive this spring. Budanov stated that there would be further strikes "deeper and deeper" inside Russia but declined to comment on Ukraine’s involvement in previous strikes on Russian rear areas in Russia.[15]
  
  It's coming, guys. >
  
  We should take the details with a grain of salt. The Ukrainians are obviously only sharing what they want the Russians to hear. It's in their best interest to not necessarily telegraph their actual intentions. >
  
  Yeah you would certainly give an opponent this appearance and then do it early so they’re complacent or think they have time to deploy forces. This would put me on alert that something is imminent. Obviously Russia can’t see troop movement but that seems ridiculous in this day and age. >
  
  '180.000 tungsten balls don't care how many mobiks are in the blast radius'
  - Sun Tzu >
  
  Ah yes. I remember when sun tzu used American HIMARS to defeat the Chu forces at the battle of Boju. >
  
  This is just me, but the perfect way to break through the MBT barrier would be if my own country Norway first donated them. We have Leo 2's (about 65 give or take, but more likely around 45 in combat operational status), and we're about to switch them out anyways. Takes flak off Germany that doesnt want to be first, the US doesnt have to worry about the "risk elevation" crowd. Also would be a good encouragement to a lot of the other smaller Leo 2 operators, all of which will be at various stages of pipeline to switch to newer anyways.
  We don't operate much in the way of IFV's, with the notable exception of CV90's, which are excellent but planned to remain in inventory anyways. So not that good fit for a donation. 
  There are fewer ways Russia can hurt Norway through whatever soft power remains to it, and militarily we're under the NATO umbrella. It would be a good signal move and in many ways the right signal that one of Russias direct and smaller neighbors sends western MBT's first; Get the F out of Ukraine, none of us will accept your empire dreams anymore. >
  
  There are several judicial barriers that prevent the reselling of weapon systems to other countries.
  In the case of Leo 2s, Norway is probably still bound by enduser declarations of some kind and a further export to Ukraine is limited by German government approval.
  Same situation with the rumoured Spanish Leo 1s from months ago and the Gepard ammunition, which Switzerland blocked by a similar mechanism. >
  
  I can't even conceive the idea of giving my life to my country in a war of agression started by my country. No propaganda and nothing short of a brain transplant would convince me.
  I value my life TOO MUCH to give it in exchange for glory for a fucking politician. >
  
  Russia here. 
  Many are severely misinformed especially at the start. 
  Our friends brother was sent in on day 1. Literally: “the parade costume is underneath the tank seat, don’t forget to iron it for the arrival celebration” - commander 
  Our friends friend could NOT be drafted for like 4 reasons (educated, teacher, no experience, and 4 kids). He got a draft letter and went to the office to clear up the confusion. Got shoved on a bus straight to boot camp. 
  This is minority examples, but I know 30+ stories but by no means all these men are frothing at the mouth for Ukrainian toilets >
  
  They can surrender at any time. >
  
  The only Christmas truce is a Christmas retreat. >
  
  OK, so we're finally seeing IFVs announced for Ukraine... Bradleys, AMX-10 RCs (well done France on getting in first - honest kudos), Marders. Hopefully in significant numbers (although apparently initial numbers are low). The key part will be training, let me explain.
  Go look up Gen. Mark Hertlings thread from a few days ago on why they are great. TLDR; maintenance and supply is easier than MBTs but for arguably a better result.
  But as per usual folks are rushing to conclusions. Unless this has been going on for some time, these systems will need 3-6 months to be battle ready (considering setting up lines of supply, maintenance, etc).
  So logic dictates that these vehicles are for summer. We could see more pledged before then but it's looking like that's the goal.
  Pressure your government if you are in an allied nation, NOW is the time to step up support, momentum is a thing in war and politics.
  TLDR; these latest announcements are not for now, unless the Allies have been sneaky with training, they're for the Summer. >
  
  FWIW I imagine Fr, Ge, USA all coordinated this decision and I’m guessing Fr just announced it first (or early!) >
  
  Oh 100%
  Allied coordination is a big thing and probably what Biden's best at.
  I would expect that 5-eyes was in on it too, so hopefully they'll follow up soon.
  Even countries like Canada and Australia maintain allied-type relations with countries like France, Germany, Netherlands and Spain. I hope we'll see some more support from the rest of us.
  Complete segue - how does the CCP ever imagine to defeat us... >
  
  Who would have known that a feeble, senile old politician with 40 years of state experience would re-vitalize a creaky NATO and unite international support against a murderous psychopath? >
  
  A bit late for cristmas, but I don't think anybody will complain.
  Eh, who am I kidding, Russian media will go nuts, unless they just supress it. >
  
  Doesn’t Ukraine largely celebrate Christmas on January 7th? >
  
  They used to. I was reading last month that to separate from Russian Orthodox Church more they are moving Xmas to Dec 25th >
  
  There is no need to worry. Ukraine knows everything about "russian ceasefires", they have more than enough experience from 2014 onward - they will NEVER fall for this shit again. >
  
  Anyone getting random people trying to reddit chat you sharing concerns about WWIII and pushing for a cease fire after posting in these threads? They're all feminine avatars, and they always ask what you think before promoting their narrative. >
  
  I deactivated the chat long time ago. Only spammers, scammers and propaganda farm workers use that feature. >
  
  Finally found a fellow chat deactivater in the wild. Most chat requests I got were spam/phish. There are some legit ones, but they can use the DM. >
  
  I tried to find others but they keep blocking my chats :/ >
  
  Putin announces please don't HIMARS our bases while we gather, ceasfire lol >
  
  Ukraine will send their reply directly to those bases from said HIMARS. >
  
  Personally, I think Ukraine should give Russia a lovely fireworks show for Christmas. >
  
  So 66% fully support the weapons provided so far and 70% fully support the sanctions thus far. That's great to see! >
  
  Russias plan is to wait until the west population gets tired of the inconvenience. What they don't realise is that the west's population was tired of the Iraq war for over a decade before we withdrew. >
  
  Sadly, this is also a really inexpensive war for the west. Yes, the west is donating a lot of equipment and money, but they are also advertising how good some of their major industries are. Not all weapons are being donated, some are getting bought. Plus, every other country not involved in the war now wants NATO-standard equipment over the Soviet-standard stuff that Russia makes and sells. The net result will probably a big boost for the western MIC which was looking at cutbacks with the end of its previous two cash cows, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s likely to be a net win, which is even easier to tolerate. >
  
  
  Putin ally Prigozhin grants freedom to first Russian convicts who fought in Ukraine
  Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia's most powerful mercenary group, bade farewell on Thursday to former convicts who had served out their contracts in Ukraine and urged them to avoid the temptation to kill when back in civilian life.
  "Don't booze too much, don't take drugs, don't rape women - (sex) only for love or for money as they say," Prigozhin was shown saying to the former convicts, who laughed. "The police should treat you with respect."
  
  I'm sure this will be great for Russian society >
  
  I find it absolute madness that a private citizen of a country has his own private army and the power to override a judicial sentence. For some reason I think that’s…not a great idea. >
  
  A state run by criminals is not a good idea either but here we are. The fact that PMCs are "illegal" in Russia kind of says all you need to know. 
  I think part of the plan with having multiple, competing armies in a country is so that no one army gets powerful enough to overthrow the power structure at the top: putin and the cronies. 
  The mafia, for example, openly extorts the army. But the mafia is technically "illegal" and so the law can be used against them if need be. Semion Mogilevich's relation to Prigozhin is unclear to me but I'm sure someone knows. And there are apparently other PMCs; Shoigu has one,  Patriot Private Military Company. And of course Kadyrov's Tic-Toc brigade is basically one as well. 
  The good thing for us, of course, is that they don't play well together and occasionally kill each other because they are loyal to themselves, like pretty much everybody in Russia these days. >
  
  With the news of Australia getting HIMARS im shamelessly copying one of the comments from our sub :)
  
  Billing address: Commonwealth of Australia.
  Shipping address: Zelenski, Kyiv, Ukraine.
  Comment for delivery: ASAP, please route via Poland. >
  
  No, we need them to fight off the emus >
  
  Just give up now. Emus nest on tungsten ball bearings. You cannot win. >
  
  State Border Guard of Ukraine has snipers in Bakhmut:
  
  Snipers from Ukrainian border guards eliminated three Russian soldiers from a distance of 1,500 meters in the Bakhmut area, according to their own announcement.
  
  On January 4, in the Bakhmut direction, Russians tried to storm the positions of the Defense Forces. However, border guards did not allow them to do so. Snipers’ bullets ended the lives of three occupants.
  Mortar calculations of the border guards worked on other invaders.
  Further information on enemy losses is being confirmed. >
  
  Perhaps the collective escalation of aid from across the free world will be a partial wake up call to at least some of the Russian elite. If the West is unequivocal about how they will see this out to the end, Russia will need to understand they cannot win or they need to fight NATO. I don't think they want the latter.
  Seems like they are banking on an end to Western support as their best hopes. The West can dash those hopes with a massive escalation of aid right now. >
  
  They know very well they're fucked, but no one has any practical ideas how to unfuck themselves. >
  
  It isn't exactly hard to unfuck themselves though is it? They just leave Ukraine and start trying to repair their relationships with the international community. It's very simple actually. >
  
  There is this small problem of them (the current political and military leadership) being war criminals, and as such they'd have to surrender themselves to an international tribunal for any restoration of relationships to become possible which they obviously would never do, and those that aren't directly guilty of war crimes (oligarchs, regional governments etc.) don't really have the means to go against Putin while the likes of FSB and Rosgvardia are still loyal although they all hate his guts. >
  
  How can therebe truce when someone is occupying your house?!?@ >
  
  Not just "someone" either, but the person who murdered your brother, tortured your father, raped your sister, stole your washing machine and swore to eradicate your very identity. >
  
  And strole your raccoon! >
  
  If German Marders and American Bradley shipment in non-negligible quantities are true, praised be both countries. Ukraine needs them badly. >
  
  Its just getting started, man Russia is in deep shit. >
  
  Ceasefire can’t be trusted. >
  
  Even if there were some sort of magical guarantees, it’s an incredibly bad deal for Ukraine. >
  
  We know that the Russian prison system has a very structured prisoner hierarchy (link in Russian Wikipedia, warning, body text contains foul language). We also know that Wagner has recruited extensively from Russian prisons. My question is, do we have any information (though I guess it is quite hard to find reliable sources on the topic) on how the mass recruitment of prisoners has affected the prison castes and culture in Russia? And if so, are recruited Wagnerites primarily from the higher or lower castes?