comment: >
  
  If the GOP rabies caucus shuts down the government for shits and giggles, even after juicy concessions from Democrats, then we might see a small number of GOP -> Independent defections. I don't think anyone in today's GOP will join the Democratic party, though.
context: Natural Causes: Something that surprised me is how often members of congress aren't able to complete their terms. Historically, ~2 Representatives die in office every year -way more than I realized. Such deaths are unlikely to occur in competitive swing districts, but with a majority of 3-4, temporarily losing just a single member could be devastating. >
  
  That's grim enough that it doesn't bear serious consideration.
  I'd much prefer a Grinch Who Stole Christmas ending where some conservatives are finally like "I'm tired of being a cynical shithead and ruining everything.  I'm getting old and I want to experience love and generosity and actual civic service before I die." >
  
  Unless the GOP has a lot of defections or they all catch a new strain of COVID and die en mass , the GOP will control the House until the end of 2024.   They will get nothing done over those two years but they will have control. >
  
  I mean, doing nothing is kinda the goal. The only thing they'd rather do than nothing is make things substantially worse for the country to give the party better odds in the next election >
  
  Affiliation Switching: Unlikely. Historically, while it's true that during the 25 congresses between 1947 and 1997, there were 20 party affiliation switches, I just don't see that happening in today's polarized political climate.