comment: >
  
  From the Wagner group channel regarding why are they fighting at Bakhmut:
  
  to take Bakhmut for the sake of Bakhmut is not the purpose of the Wagner PMC. The main objective of the company is the destruction of the enemy's manpower and equipment. If he begins to fight in the city itself, it means assault. Fortunately the "musicians" (Wagner troops)  have enough experience of fighting in large urban areas.
  
  So... They are there cause they are... winning.
context: It's astonishing that Russia destroyed more of Mariupol than the Nazi's did. Supposedly they've even killed more civilians too, but there's no real way to confirm that yet. >
  
  Q: How were the Ukrainians ever even able to push out the Russians from Snake Island?
  A:  A howitzer on a pontoon boat.
  
  The location of the firing position from self-propelled guns was almost on the border with Romania in the Odesa region. The road there was not easy...had to literally crawl. One of the highlights of our trip was rafting a self-propelled gun on a pontoon through the channels of the Danube Delta.
  The complexity ...determined by the weather conditions, which changed almost every hour, near impossible to make calculations for shooting because the [1] direction of the wind and [2] its strength constantly changed. In addition, the weather on the shore is very [3] different from the weather over the sea. 
  Also, we had no air cover.
  The first day of shooting was unsuccessful. We fired six shots, but missed. 
  The very next day, fog for hours.
  A large team of military specialists worked with us. In particular, a drone was raised into the sky to adjust the fire. After a few more shots, Russian’s Pantsyr caught fire and the signs of the Russian electronic communications station's operation disappeared. 
  Later, the General Staff confirmed that the targets were suppressed by our Bogdana.  So it was we who gave further opportunity to strike the island with other forces of destruction. >
  
  
  A howitzer on a pontoon boat
  
  Non-Credible Defense is going into overdrive >
  
  Russian comments to the news of Engels, from a Russian newspaper, midsize city:
  “Demilitarization .. Well done))”
  “Uh-huh...the drone was shot down...
  And those three that died, they caught it with nets ...
  Just a reminder... all is ok. 800 km from Ukraine...”
  “[regarding why three died from falling debris] It is not clear, they caught the wreckage with their hands?”
  “How did we end up in this... narrow, dark place? But more importantly, how do we get out of it now? What other losses must be in order to stop this?!”
  “Without the DPR, LPR and Crimea, Russia survived well and got along with the West. But someone's greed prevented someone from living peacefully.”
  “so nothing flew in, just lost ... but there is no time to deal with it, the main thing is to fulfill the plan for mobilization and legitimize the tricks of the departed.”
  “one drone, old and inexperienced, was nevertheless shot down ... but imagine about twenty of them modern .... and this is at a strategic aviation airfield .... where the existence of a storage of nuclear warheads is also implied ....
  In general, our military miserable country is not only incapable of fighting NATO, but in itself poses a threat to its own population.
  If this were NATO, the largest ranks would immediately fly into retirement after this.”
  “What to say. Ukrainians are a very resourceful people.”
  “So basically, this drone quietly flew 800 km and no one noticed it???”
  “The triad is under attack. Wake up.”
  “Engels again. Shot down again. Again victims from the wreckage. Maybe next time just try not to shoot down?”
  “Do we really have air defense?” >
  
  I think this is the unveiling of strategic capabilities for Ukraine which Russia cannot counter with its economy the size of Italy. It will be quite simple propeller drones with price tag of 100k fly for large distances, armed with a modern Hellfire or Brimstone missiles. These are released with automatic seeker heads on GPS coordinates towards military sites, especially airfields where the targets are soft skinned but highly valuable.
  Automatic seekers are required, because the assets are not static. This is the difference between Iranian Shaheds, which can only hit buildings or similar structures. I suspect now that the summer attack against the airfield in crimea had something similar. There were 2 almost simultaneous explosions on separate locations, something that is difficult to do if you are flying in the targets with multiple drones.
  It is not enough for Russia to suddenly move their best AA assets near Ukraine toward the rear bases. They also have to start recognizing friend from foe and stay vigilant 24/7, it ain't happening. And the crews are needed where they are right now. >
  
  
  Automatic seekers are required, because the assets are not static.
  
  Ukraine could get up-to-date satellite images/coordinates (from a number of sources) and relay to the drones until the last few minutes. Good enough to hit most military targets. >
  
  Information relay would need an active satellite connection which would increase the complexity (Starlink is geofenced, not working over there) and price. You would have to concert the satellite imaging overpass and intelligence gathering tightly to the drone reaching the area, another difficulty and expense. >
  
  This us probably a subtle "fuck you" on Germany's part. >
  
  Four explosions heard, Tokmak, Zaporozhye, where mobilized men are based. >
  
  From the Wagner group channel regarding why are they fighting at Bakhmut:
  
  to take Bakhmut for the sake of Bakhmut is not the purpose of the Wagner PMC. The main objective of the company is the destruction of the enemy's manpower and equipment. If he begins to fight in the city itself, it means assault. Fortunately the "musicians" (Wagner troops)  have enough experience of fighting in large urban areas.
  
  So... They are there cause they are... winning. >
  
  So they are admitting Wagner is there literally to be cannon fodder. >
  
  Their plan A is a war of attrition, it's a bold strategy, let's see how it works out for them >
  
  that's the most brutal clip i've seen. Its NSFL >
  
  I think I'm gonna leave that link blue >
  
  There is nothing gory in the video.  Maybe screen resolution is low.  Smoke and flying dirt block out a lot.  
  If you read the title and comments then the idea is already something you have to process. >
  
  [ Removed by Reddit ] >
  
  Russia "bringing in huge amount of reserves" to fight in Kreminna, Ukraine says
  
  Kreminna lies on a key north-south road from Svatove, which Russian troops had been using to resupply and which became even more important to them after Ukrainian troops took over Kupyansk, a resupply hub to the northwest of Kreminna and Svatove. Losing Kreminna would limit Russia's ability to resupply its troops in the key city of Severodonetsk.
  
  Russia underlining that the imminent liberation of Kreminna will be devastating for them. >
  
  Oh yes, Russia bringing lots of troops into an exposed bulge where they can be shelled in bulk.
  Classic. >
  
  Basically himars bait. >
  
  Just regular arty, honestly. >
  
  150 Russians were wounded and killed after near Polovinkino
  “The Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the area where the enemy's manpower was concentrated, near the Polovynkino Starobil district.” >
  
  
  Invaders get WRECKED! >
  
  Stark contrast to the bus that wouldn't pick up a disabled Russian vet in a wheelchair. Do they disagree with her or are they worried about guilt by association? >
  
  Heroes >
  
  I am glad so many such heroes emerged also in the russia proper in the first days of the war.
  Oh wait..... >
  
  yes the poor Russians are afraid to act because the government is so oppressive and powerful, better to just not have an opinion while they take their kids to be slaughtered so Putin can keep a lid on their brains for a few more days to pretend they are not losing the war >
  
  From 24.02.2022 to 27.12.2022 estimated Russian losses so far (change since previous):
  103220 (+620) Personnel
  3015 (+0) Tanks
  6024 (+7) Armored Personnel Vehicles
  1998 (+2) Artillery Systems
  418 (+0) MLRS
  212 (+0) Anti-aircraft Warfare Systems
  283 (+0) Aircraft
  267 (+0) Helicopters
  1707 (+0) UAV operational-tactical level
  653 (+0) Missiles
  16 (+0) Warships / Boats
  4652 (+5) Other vehicles
  179 (+1) Special Equipment >
  
  losing 3,000+ tanks is completely fucking insane. assuming all of their tanks are capable of service (doubt it) they are approaching 1 in every 3 destroyed, in 10 months, in one corner of one country in europe. if this carries on as-is for 10 more months, they will probably have NO tanks. literally none. wtf? >
  
  General Staff:
  
  On December 25, our soldiers struck a concentration of Russian invaders near Novobilozerka, Vasylivsky District, Zaporizhzhia Region. The enemy lost up to 100 soldiers dead and wounded. Among them are 15 employees of the FSB. >
  
  FSB casualties going up will probably have more weight in the "motherland" than soldier casualties. >
  
  In two weeks: Explosions reported at Ukrainka airbase >
  
  How far can these old drones fly hypothetically? >
  
  I would suspect being intercontinental bombers there are only a few airbases equipped to handle them.  Russia probably had one east and one west.  They can't use the western one any more so they had to go east.  
  Major achievement by Ukraine.  They denied the western base and took these bombers out of the equation for now. >
  
  Before the invasion, Putin was complaining about "security issues". 
  Well, NOW he's got real security issues. >
  
  I agree.  I might add that the internal issues make it worse since everyone now knows Russia is a paper tiger. >
  
  What was that rocket fired at the end? Are these things basically like the Slayer from perfect dark, a launcher that fires a remote-controlled explosive? >
  
  How have you made it this far without ever seeing a Javelin? >
  
  never seen their POV videos, I don't watch many war vis for mental health reasons lol >
  
  I don't know what you're referencing but the Javelin is an ATGM, so it's an infrared guided fire and forget anti-tank missile. So the explosive is not remote controlled it's just...a missile. >
  
  The Switchblade 600 has a Javelin warhead. >
  
  Interesting that they decided to admit Ukrainian drones can get that far into the country instead of screaming smoking accident like idiots. >
  
  Hard to deny that anything happened when the reports and videos of an explosion spread across telegram and other outlets withing minutes. >
  
  They’ve been criticizing him for this several months now. >
  
  Nice to have a reminder that there are some good Russians.
  (people don't need to reply with "yeah, but...", we all know already) >
  
  I bet the poor elderly couple just lost their son and decided they had nothing left to lose. I’m sorry we will never find out because of how terrible Russian “news” is. They will probably both be de facto killed for their “crime”. >
  
  Also in the first months of the invasion, the Russians claimed that they did not bomb civilians. They said that Ukraine itself is bombing its cities in order to blame Russia for this. >
  
  Gosh I remember when we were all afraid back in February as to how quickly Russians would end up establishing air superiority.
  Fast forward ten months and that still hasn't happened, meanwhile their ground forces are constantly being chased and bombed by Ukrainian drones. >
  
  
  Maria Lvova-Belova 
  
  The woman has five biological and 17 adopted children
  Jesus Christ that is morbid. Poor kids. >
  
  Even if you're evil and intend to use the children as slaves that feels like too high of a number. >
  
  Is it a new type of drone? Looks like based on the explosions from the hits, they have a lot of ammunition >
  
  It looks like it's a modified quadcopter with an RPG facing forward (for a directional attack). Basically a steerable RPG at that point. >
  
  Ukrainian military being creative again, creating a mobile observation station out of a GAZ Volga. >
  
  Engels—What we Know So Far:
  DW writes that:
  
  
  a drone fired two missiles, one was shot down, other hit its target. Drone itself was not shot down. 
  
  
  The ‘base control center’ was hit.
  
  
  3 killed, 4 injured.
  
  
  Dialog reports what locals claim, (And Fakty, too):
  
  5 bombers damaged 
  
  The Air Force spokesman:
  
  wait a few days, for when satellite images from the airfield appear, in order to see the real consequences of the explosions.
  
  Editor of military publication Defense Express, live on EspressoTV:
  
  
  Russia has claimed that removed planes, bombers from Engels, and moved north.  Never happened.
  
  
  Russia will not acknowledge that bombers were damaged.  Acknowledging would mean Russian air defense cannot protect the nuclear triad. 
  
  
  ”But we understand that the Russians will not admit the losses associated with the strikes on the planes. Because this is the undermining of the basis of the Russian nuclear triad. If we can destroy Russian strategic bombers with conventional drones, it means that Russian air defense is not working well and the Russian nuclear triad is vulnerable.”
  
  
  Editor, Defence Express:
  
  
  there was a fire at the airfield, which took 3+ hours to extinguish
  
  
  bomber-carriers Tu-95MS and Tu-160 were parked there
  
  
  Unverified:
  
  
  5 Tu-95ms strategic bombers “seriously damaged”
  
  
  2 other planes “slightly damaged”
  
  
  17 soldiers killed
  
  
  26 wounded, 4 in serious condition 
  
  
  already trying to repair control tower >
  
  This quote about the nuclear tiad is really interesting. Their submarines are all noisy enough to be followed. Their air defense is now demonstrably inadequate to protect bombers on the ground, and so that just leaves the land based ICBMs- SS-18 Satan, SS-19 Stiletto, and SS-27 Topol-M.
  They claim to have about 479 all told —but we also know they have been cannibalizing them for space flight, some are bound to be as quality as the rest of Russian hardware, and if ordered everyone wouldn’t even fire.— so let’s say an optimistic 400.
  NATO/US has AGEIS, THAAD, and ground based midcourse (space) deterrents for ICBMs, which though not foolproof- are actually effective. 
  Which means, if there TRIAD really is effectively one pillar, the worst case doomsday scenario may actually be globally survivable. If west was quick, and did not retaliate in kind anyway… it’s an interesting thought experiment to think about anyway >
  
  
  AGEIS
  
  Isn't it for intermediate-range BMs only?
  
  GMD
  
  AFAIK, US only has 44 launchers (1x SM-3 in each) and that's not enough to intercept all ICBMs and their warheads (assuming one SM-3 is only intercepting one warhead).
  Plus, the probability of interception isn't high, as far as I've read. >
  
  I might've been confused, I thought that AEGIS and GMD are 2 different systems >
  
  I don't care how much propaganda or false information is fed to these people, no excuses of any kind to do something like this.  Even if they threatened to kill your family.. How could you ever kill a 1 or 3 yrs old?      I hope Russia gets pummeled into the dark ages and they deserve everything they have coming to them >
  
  
  no excuses of any kind to do something
  
  If you go to Russian forums and telegram, for them it was "okay" because victims were apparently Gipsies. >
  
  Hah and the Ukranians are supposed to be the nazis... >
  
  the way he talks and words he uses sounds like they pulled a gopnik off the street to pose as a priest >
  
  I think that’s the selection process yes.
  Except it’s not off the street, it’s out of the Kremlin.
  Apparently the FSB counts as a theological college in Russia. >
  
  Russia is moving their nuclear bombers from Engles to Siberia.
  Why should they need to move? Surely it would be easier to just move in better air defence?
  …if they had it.
  Isn’t this Russia basically admitting it’s air defence is rubbish and it’s not going to get better?
  Just another sign of Russian military hitting its limits. The cracks are appearing and they are going to get bigger. >
  
  Timeline around the Sievierodonetsk area and other relevant events, and why this area may be important:
  Early April - Russia retreats from Kyiv and redeploys forces to try fully capture Donbas.
  Mid April - Russia attacks Kreminna (1) and captures it. They continue their attack on Sievierodonetsk.
  Russians realize their strength is in their artillery and zerg rushing the enemy.
  Early May - Russia attacks Rubizhne (2) (located north west of Sievierodonetsk) and captures it. This allows Russia to heavily focus on Sievierodonetsk with lots of artillery.
  Russia also concludes the Mariupol siege. They suffered heavy losses in Mariupol but still redeploy to Sievierodonetsk.
  Mid to Late June - Ukraine withdraws from Sievierodonetsk (3) and Lysychansk (4) under heavy fire, Russia now focuses on Bakhmut (5).
  Ukraine was criticized for staying in Sievierodonetsk for longer than they should have, but I think it was the right call because it stalled the Russians enough to allow for the arrival of Western artillery, all while inflicting heavy losses.
  June/July - M777, M270 and HIMARS introduces themselves, wipes out Russian ammunition depots and supply lines everywhere, causing ammunition starvation.
  16th June - Ground footage of a Ukrainian Tochka-U wiping out a very large ammunition depot at Krasny Luch.
  Bakhmut (5) and Siversk frontline stalls heavily from here onwards, while Western artillery destroys the entire Russian strategy.
  September - Kharkiv counteroffensive before winter effectively renders Bakhmut (5) a less meaningful target. Russia now mass mobilizes for the war.
  October - Crimean bridge explosion exacerbates supply issues in the south of Ukraine and Crimea.
  November - Russia retreats from Kherson, both sides redeploy to the other fronts.
  December - We come full circle for the Russians in Kreminna (1).
  Ukraine can potentially threaten the entire north Luhansk area if Kreminna (1) is captured or somehow bypassed. This includes the Sievierodonetsk area (2, 3, 4), Svatove, Starobilsk and even Luhansk itself. This would also likely collapse the Bakhmut (5) offensive.
  It seems likely that Ukraine will fight very well in the heavily forested areas around Sievierodonetsk in 2023. They will likely capture it like the Russians did back in June, if things go according to plan. >
  
  
  Ukraine was criticized for staying in Sievierodonetsk for longer than they should have
  
  By whom? 
  Ukraine would know best about whether or not that was a good option. It's hard to see how it could have been a bad option. Attackers in urban warfare always take heavier losses, and it may well have also bought time to prepare the next line of defenses, and might be part of why it's so difficult for them to make inroads in Bakhmut. >
  
  SD was such a meat grinder that Kyiv sent foreign legion to subdue losses among its regular forces.
  But ultimately, momentum is the most dangerous factor (after surprise) in the battlefield. And after Popasna it turned incredibly dangerous. So the sacrifice for SD was justified. >
  
  The bit about Poland and Hungary invading and occupying western Ukraine is hilarious.
  First of all, Poland especially has been helping Ukraine as much as they can, because they know what Russian invasions are like first hand.
  Second, even though there are small Hungarian and Polish speaking groups in western Ukraine, nobody but some 80-year-old former Nazi collaborators talked seriously about retaking that territory, because it's long gone.
  You know who talks all the time about retaking territory based solely on which country it used to be a part of decades ago?
  Putin.
  He even suggested to Hungary that they could "have" a piece of Ukraine as payment for not getting in the way of Russia's invasion! Now he's saying that Russia needs to save Ukraine from an aggressive Hungary!?
  What's truly, truly insane is that when I spoke with a friend who lived his entire life on the other side of the planet, isn't Russian, and doesn't speak Russian, the first thing he asked me when we discussed the war is: "What do you think about the buildup of forces in Poland and Hungary in preparation to invade Ukraine?"
  The propaganda from Russia is insanely effective.
  If you ask me, the entire world made a mistake in not simply cutting off their fibre links the second the war started.
  Why are we allowing the enemy to use our networks to seed lies amongst our population!?
  A direct equivalent would be allowing Joseph Goebbels unlimited ability to publish whatever he wanted in London newspapers throughout WWII! Can you imagine? Well... you don't need to! Russia is doing that kind of thing right now. >
  
  Medvedev got drunk and posted some delirious wishcasting shit 8 hours ago and we're still taking about it? >
  
  He wasn't even serious. He was calling in the craziest shit, so he add to that list. >
  
  Wow I thought Austria was a lost cause, and I don't blame them. Part of Austria's allowance to live at the end of WW2 was that they allow open season spying between USA and USSR. But in Germany this not so easily forgivable >
  
  The world is not paying them enough money to fund their BS so they're going to stop selling oil to like 75% of the world, which will cause a massive surplus of Russian oil which they will have to sell dirt cheap to get rid of? Great plan! >
  
  Vova is not just a master strategist; he is a master economist! >
  
  Are we sure it's cloud and not just an awful lot of smoke and/or the base simply isn't there anymore?  ^/s >
  
  
  Russian City Mourns Its Lost Soldiers, but Doesn’t Resent Putin’s War
  
  Is it really Putin's war though? Maybe the West should stop being delusional about Russia. It's Russia's Putin, not Putin's Russia >
  
  It's going to take a century before Russia joins the 21st century, and by then they'll still be a hundred years out of date. >
  
  Russian economy
  
  The first issue to recognize is that Russian budget is beginning to literally crater. No, this does not mean that Russia will run out of money any time soon but it does mean that their liquidity is now directly affecting their geopolitics and also domestic policy. 
  Still, the question remains: are there bank runs going on in Russia? Everything I know so far suggests: not yet.
  Long lines, general disarray and many depositors getting screwed basically happens all the time in Russia. This did not last and did not produce any pressure on Russian government to end the war.
  Everything we are seeing so far is minor and is merely a sign of a small economic disturbance. I do believe things can snowball at any minute in Russia because the necessary conditions seem to be in place but nothing we see so far indicates a major breakdown of the system.
  
  Many more interesting points behind the link. >
  
  Yeah, I don't see Russia's economy exploding overnight. The bigger issue is the death by 1000 cuts from the lack of tech support and imports that leads to o/g industry slowly breaking down. The loss of industrial equipment as they are forced to cannibalize parts to keep things running. It will be a slow bleed as plants go offline, or maintenance takes a few weeks longer then it should, or a train engine breaks down that was delivering industrial inputs, etc. The list of things that are just going to SLOWLY break down over time is growing, and it just bleeds them dry over time. >
  
  The problem is we're now going on almost a year of nonstop horrific economic news for Russia--we're well past "overnight" and well into "Super Shredder trying to knock over the pier he's standing on" territory. >
  
  To Russia a damaged bomber may as well be destroyed. they don't have any parts and are cannibalizing other planes. They were the only operators so they can't even steal or borrow from anyone else. >
  
  
  To Russia a damaged bomber may as well be destroyed
  
  Likewise, an operational bomber is likely a damaged bomber as well >
  
  Until it lands in a building right after takeoff. >
  
  Technically it would only be more damaged after that >
  
  Putin has today distributed nine golden rings to ~~mortal men doomed to die~~ the leaders of CIS countries during his summit in St Petersburgh. Really, can't make this shit up. >
  
  Biden is clearly Gandalf. >
  
  Trump is Wormtongue >
  
  Wormtongue was highly competent.  Does not match. >
  
  Trump is Lotho Sackville-Baggins. >
  
  Great channel, wasn't aware of it. Thanks for sharing it. >
  
  All this focus on Bahkmut and I'm just wondering when UA will hit the Crimean bridge again and fuck the southern logistics properly. >
  
  they want to keep the bridge traversable by car so that Russian civilians can fuck off relatively easily - at least that's my presumption >
  
  They do until they don't.  If they make a successful attack to split the Russians and reach the Azov Sea, then dropping the bridge becomes a big priority. >
  
  Can't wait to see that aircraft number once again go up when the airbase attack is fully confirmed! >
  
  I think the most recent drone/UAV strike hit a command centre building, not aircraft.  But the details are still pretty sketchy.  It's been cloudy over Engels for the past few days, so no good satellite pics available yet. >
  
  I'm really pleasantly surprised by Meloni's foreign policy. Originally thought she would be another Orban, she seems to be more akin to the Polish populists, right-wing yet anti-Russian. >
  
  The anti-Russian thing is a very recent pivot. She’s more like right-wing populist with survival instincts >
  
  Well this time her instincts were spot on >
  
  I wonder, has there ever been a time where Putin actually deescalated a situation? Is he actually capable of doing that at all? It seems like the he is all gas no brakes. >
  
  When he gets squarely punched in the face and told to sit the fuck down, yes.
  When Turkey simply shot down the russian plane entering their airspace, it never happened again, no word, no drama, no nuclear rhetoric.
  The world will have to learn one day that the way to deal with Putin is just by destroying him >
  
  The plane wasn’t even in Turkish airspace when it was fired upon or hit. It briefly entered Turkish airspace, probably accidentally, earlier in the flight. Fucking madlad. 
  But as you said, Putin deescalated. >
  
  
  The plane wasn’t even in Turkish airspace when it was fired upon or hit.
  
  Sure thing.
  
  It briefly entered Turkish airspace, probably accidentally, earlier in the flight. Fucking madlad. 
  
  Nonsense.  Russian and Syrian planes had repeatedly entered Turkish airspace and Turkey had already warned that if it didn't stop they would be fired on, like Syria did when they shot down a Turkish plane a few years earlier. >
  
  I'm expecting a battle of the bulge offensive from Russia before this is over. They will throw everything they have left into one massive assault. I don't see them slowly laying down and accepting  defeat. >
  
  The problem of course is that I'm not even sure they can realistically organize themselves for an assault nearly as effective. The Bulge was able to be put together in the pre-satellite imagery and pin-point long-range weapon days. If the Russians actually tried to concentrate and organize forces for that type of push, it would be spotted months in advance and harassed with every type of weapon continuously. >
  
  GPSJam is a pretty neat site, zoom in to Moscow or around Saratov (where Ukraine previously struck) and it's all lit up in red. >
  
  Question is, why is Turkiye jamming GPS? They expecting attacks from Syria? >
  
  Bombs with mobile phone detonators are/were popular from Kurdish terrorists/resistance fighters depending on your view. >
  
  Anyone who intentionally attacks a population center over an ideology without attempting to mitigate civilian casualties is a terrorist. That includes those who sit in a Command Center half a world away, a Kurd with a pipe bomb, a civilian contractor "blowing off steam" into a crowd of Afghanis because they are worthless and expendable, etc. >
  
  Mitt Romney also said Russia is the biggest threat and people laughed with him. >
  
  If this war has made one thing clear, Russia is not a threat to The United States, much less a combined NATO defense.  It's a clown show, not a near peer. >
  
  Nobody is a military threat to the U.S. Romney said geopolitical threat, which Russia has been. Mainly with online disinformation campaigns and of course the global energy market. >
  
  
  Romney said geopolitical threat, which Russia has been
  
  I mean Russia literally got one of their agents into a the white house in a plan they had cultivated for decades.  That's one hell of a fucking threat. >
  
  Two, if you count Melania, who for some inexplicable reason was grilling the #2 at the Pentagon over the locations of ICBMs. >
  
  Follow up from [two weeks ago], I heard back from the tg channel about my understanding/interpretation of one of the Russian commanders they interviewed.
  Background—a reputable, I SW-quoted tg channel interviewed 4 commanders from the aggressor and Ukraine, in July, again in December.  Three of the 4 RF commanders were beyond disillusioned—they each admitted seriously contemplating “switching sides.” Original post
  RF commander who was complaining and making implications (“I’m now in the North, and what is being prepared here, if it starts, our losses will be huge, but there will be no result.”) that was in Belarus and a second attack was being planned.  However, sometimes I misunderstand bc my Russian is rusty, so I asked author.  They confirmed that the Russian commander was in Belarus, and was indeed implying that the plan was to invade from the North. u/PanTheOpticon, u/Immortal_Tuttle
  
  Last week, the channel said their sources informed that was to proceed Dec 25-26.  
  Didn’t happen. 
  
  On the night of December 25-26, the Russian Armed Forces did not go on the offensive from the territory of Belarus, about which we were warned by Russian officers stationed in Brest, Grodno and Stolin and Russian senior officers from the General Staff. 
  All our sources in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, located on the territory of Belarus, stopped communicating on the morning of December 25th. In itself, this can mean anything, but, as practice shows, either there is no connection, or they went to the border. 
  According to reports from officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian army was ready to repel the offensive yesterday, but there was no activity other than small attacks by Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups. From the Belarusian side of the border, the movement of infantry units (from platoons to several companies) was noted, but there was no fire contact and the Russian group did not take offensive actions either in Lutsk, or in Kiev, or in Chernigov direction. >
  
  RAF couldn't do it in a "surprise" blitz with over 100,000 troops, many of whom were considered highly trained. Trying again with much less trained conscripts and inferior equipment is simply forcing those troops into a kill zone against much better prepared Ukrainian defenses. It would end in a complete catastrophe for Russia and possibly break what little morale is left on the southern and eastern fronts. Let's hope they are foolish enough to make the misstep. >
  
  I’m being serious and not trying to invoke Godwin’s Law: I wonder if that includes the previous German regimes. Because Germany exported ALOT of planes and tanks to its puppets and allies in WW2, and a lot of arms, munitions, and rifles to its allies up to and during the First World War. >
  
  German source explicitly states "federal republic" so no it doesn't.
  
  This year, the German government has approved arms deliveries worth at least 8.35 billion euros. This is already the second-highest figure in the history of the Federal Republic. Only last year was the figure even higher, at 9.35 billion euros. >
  
  NSFL: Russian soldier kills himself with a grenade after getting pre-wounded by a Ukrainian drone-dropped grenade >
  
  It looked he was already surrounded by corpses to keep himself warm. Damn that's bleak. >
  
  Maybe he was trying to hide under them? Still dark, but slightly less dark >
  
  
  Meanwhile on Russian state TV: Tucker, Tucker and more Tucker.
  
  It's like the human centipede of Russian propaganda. >
  
  Tucker Carlscum needs to be called out as often as possible.  The only way to combat his insidious form of disinformation and propaganda is to shine as bright a light as possible on it.
  Never let anyone who cites Carlscum or watches the sniveling rat on TV go off without a reminder that they are supporting kidnapping, rape, murder & genocide. >
  
  Biden made it very clear the Ukraine alone will decide when and if negotiations begin.  As long as Biden is President that will be the US position. >
  
  BREAKING News: Four Ukrainian servicemen killed in Russia, ”while performing a combat mission.”
  On December 26, the FSB announced the murder of four Ukrainians who allegedly tried to enter the territory of the Bryansk region in order to carry out "sabotage and terrorist acts."
  The Russian intelligence service reported that the dead had foreign weapons, in particular SIG Sauer submachine guns, communication and navigation devices, and four bombs with a total capacity of about 40 kg of TNT.
  The FSB also made public the data of the Ukrainians. The secret service reported that while trying to enter Russian territory, the following were killed [below].
  The death of Ukrainian servicemen was subsequently confirmed by a fighter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yevgeny Karas. From the photographs released by the Russians, he concluded [his opinion] that the group had entered a minefield. This is not confirmation. Karas shared his memories of the dead. [in italics]
  
  
  Yuri Gorovets, born in 1988, call sign "Svyatosha", the Russians called him the group commander;  "A successful saboteur. This was far from his first reconnaissance mission. The Russians paid a terrible price [ie, we will avenge] ... Patriot. Christian. Actor. Traveler. Veteran. Long-term member of the Brotherhood community of Dmitry Korchinsky." 
  
  
  Maksim Mikhailov, born in 1990, call sign "Nepiypivo"; “Cossack. Cheerful but fearless. Kind but courageous. Forever young, a provocateur of Korchinsky. Tender, but with a twinkle in his eyes. A romantic who lit stars with a fire over the occupied territories of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod.“
  
  
  Taras Karpyuk, born in 1984, call sign "Tarasy";  “Taras was a real warrior. Taras was a true soldier...It is not surprising that he was one of the first to go to war in 2014. He was wounded in close contact with the enemy near Ilovaisk. Separatists shot at Taras from a distance of 15m, missing him, ended up in a store with tracers. They caught fire and began to explode. He was treated for a long time. After the start of the full-scale war, he went to the front. Saint. A true patriot, fought them before it became popular. He fought in Ilovaisk in 2014 and defended Mariupol. It was he who led our group that entered enemy territory.”
  
  
  Bogdan Lyagov, born in 2003, call sign Apollo. “From the beginning of the war, this 19-year-old guy began to fight. He immediately volunteered for a sabotage group. You can imagine the number of successful operations since February ... The guy is extremely brave. He always volunteered— difficult missions, but "Apollo" was happy. He was considered brilliantly capable, because he showed some of the best results in physical and tactical training. the very fact that a 19-year-old young man went behind enemy lines is admirable."
  
  
  “All the best. All my friends. All of them died with weapons in their hands behind enemy lines. Everyone fought anti-Ukrainian shit! Honor! Let's take revenge!”
  
  Full tributes: https: // t . me / s/KARAS_EVGEN >
  
  Heróyam sláva! >
  
  Volya media channel:
  
  Dec 25: Russian officers in East gave us conflicting information. RF HQ clarified that there was no connection with units south of Svatovo, and it was impossible to say exactly what was happening there. 
  Dec 26, AM:  Ukrainian officers reported:  that it was too early to talk about the encirclement of Svatovo, but UA northern outskirts of Kremennaya, continued to move around Svatovo. Svatovo locals reported that shooting, artillery fire were heard around the city, but calm in the city. 
  Dec 26, PM: Russian sources, Luhansk HQ: the situation in the Svatovo-Kremennaya sector difficult for RF army; command & control broken, no communication; impossible to establish what is happening, surmise UA trying to move forward. One source at the group's HQ: if the Ukrainian army could move east of Svatovo and cut off the road to Starobilsk, there will be a risk of collapse of the Russian defenses in this area. 
  Then will need trained infantry to avoid a repetition of the Sept scenario near Balakleya, Izyum, Kupyansk. 
  
  “In the Starobelsky direction, we have unfired motorized rifles from the mobilized. If there is a threat of a breakthrough, then the holes will need to be quickly closed by trained units. I won’t be surprised if they rush to return those who were sent to Belarus a month ago,” says the Russian staff officer [at Luhansk HQ].
  
  Analysis: While little is known about the UA offensive in the Kremennaya-Svatovo area, the fact that it began on the afternoon of Dec 25, before the expected offensive of the RF on Volyn [from the North], may indicate an attempt by UA command to ‘seize the initiative’ from RF, forcing them to change their plans.  A similar situation occurred at the end of August in the Kherson and Kharkov regions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine again demonstrate the ability to quickly respond to the situation on the fronts, and the Russian command once again shows the inability to plan their operations, taking into account the actions of the enemy. 
  The likelihood of a Russian attack on Volyn remains, despite the change or disruption of the deadlines indicated by our sources [of Dec 25-26]. I am glad that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to repel this offensive if it starts and are making efforts in another area to force RF to urgently change plans. >
  
  
  began on the afternoon of Dec 25
  
  bwhaha I called it Ukrainian Christmas Offensive >
  
  Putin is always so expressionless, like he's trying to project an image of always being in control. Meanwhile he's launched one of the most foolish and embarrassing wars in world history. It's my New Year's wish to see fear in the smug prick's eyes by the end of 2023. >
  
  I'm not sure how safe it is to get drunk in russia anymore - you accidentally speak your mind and off to jail you go >
  
  Not really, they learn from childhood how to speak without providing any information. 
  Asked a guy from former USSR about the backstory of some random thing at his house. His answer was: for historical reasons. >
  
  This needs to be repeated: the definition of Nazi for Russians and westerners is not the same. 
  For westerners, nazis are fascists who hate and kill minorities (among other things). 
  For Russians nazis were the ones who betrayed Russia. That was the big sin from Nazis for Russians. 
  So whatever energy you use pointing out that Ukrainians are not Nazis in our terms is wasted. 
  Better yet, reminding about the real reason why Russians call Ukrainians Nazis will educate others about how wrong their moral compass is. >
  
  While I'm aware of the difference in perspective, I'll happily waste my energy pointing out how the Russian definition sucks hard enough to drag a golf ball through a garden hose. Oh how convenient it must be. In fact, taking a page out of the Russian playbook, I hereby declare that the definition of 'idiot' is now 'anybody who doesn't agree with me'. Yessir, it sure is nice to just ignore reality and, you know, that words have meanings. >
  
  Sure. My point was to avoid giving their argument air to breathe and instead countering it by reminding how they hate Nazis for all the wrong reasons. 
  That should leave whoever parrots their argument on the defense. >
  
  I know, I know. I think we each made our respective comments in the same spirit: It had to be said. >
  
  How much area will the patriot system cover? Enough for a city, an oblast, or more? >
  
  Yeah, it's not really made for drones. It's made for high-flying missiles and jets.
  There are other systems specifically for drones.  It's likely those weren't deployed in Saudi Arabia.  Maybe they need to stop sucking Putin's cock and open the oil spigots, and someone might sell them. >
  
  How much effect would retaking Kreminna have on situation in Bakhmut? >
  
  Huge. The towns of Rubzine and then Severodonesk and Lysychansk then became accessible from the north.
  If Uraine take that triangle of towns, it’s just the city Luhansk and then the Luhansk oblast is mostly Ukraine. >
  
  Romani family of 8, including 3 children were shot dead in Makiivka >
  
  Dafuq is "Makiivka, DPR"? It's Makiivka, Ukraine
  Edit: that idiot blocked me, lol >
  
  I used to enjoy the dude, but I really just got so tired of his style. He doesn't usually say anything, but he really doesn't offer much that's factually new. That said, he is fairly funny in his other channels. >
  
  i bet it's the type that drags out the video to hit a certain treshhold for adds. >
  
  Often, yes, but those behaviours are actively designed into the platform by YouTube. It’s fine for better content than this. >
  
  I can't ever tell if Dmitry Medvedev is an idiot or a troll or some unholy combination of both. A master of bullshit if there ever was one! >
  
  Personally, I would rate him no higher than a journeyman of bullshit and that is being generous, I think.  One would think that after so many years of constant and perpetual bullshitting that they would be better at it.  But, I suppose, when there is no space for anyone to question or challenge your bullshit, upping your bullshitting game isn't really required.   
  Sad. >
  
  Yeah. A master bullshiter is the one that convinces people to believe the bullshit. Medvedev is simply talking to the people who are already full crazy like himself. >
  
  Слава Україні
  Also, fuck putin >
  
  Heróyam sláva! >
  
  If you haven’t seen it, check out Michael Clarkes 22 minute special. 
  Link. >
  
  Furthermore, I am of the opinion Putin must be defenestrated. >
  
  You know, thanks for the weapons, but i find it odd how Macron vision of future for Ukraine, so closely resembles that of Russia. 
  Russia gets to "save face", they should not be "humiliated", Ukraine is kept from NATO and EU for "decades" to not seek conflict with Russia. 
  Oh and Russia gets security guarantees. 
  If not for weapon deliveries it would be very hard to tell which side Macron actually is. >
  
  Anyone who doesn’t expect it to take decades to join the EU is a naive fool who doesn’t know anything about the EU. >
  
  let's see how that works out for EU after the war in ukraine has ended. i can tell you now that there will be lots of friction between east and west european countries. pretty certain the EU will have to transform itself. >
  
  The thing is, a lot of friction is also about how the EU will transform itself. I hope it won't happen but things look pretty bleak in that regard and there is a real risk that Ukraine may end up being unable to join simply because the EU has completely deadlocked itself. >
  
  Day CCCVII, Part I. Thread CDXLVIII >
  
  Both you and /u/the_fungible_man posted at the same time lol
  Amazing >
  
  By my reckoning I was second, so I bowed out. >
  
  Thank you both! >
  
  Yep. Good work you two! >
  
  Fuck putin. All day, everyday. >
  
  “Down with putin, the killer of kids…” >
  
  It's astonishing that Russia destroyed more of Mariupol than the Nazi's did. Supposedly they've even killed more civilians too, but there's no real way to confirm that yet. >
  
  Q: How were the Ukrainians ever even able to push out the Russians from Snake Island?
  A:  A howitzer on a pontoon boat.
  
  The location of the firing position from self-propelled guns was almost on the border with Romania in the Odesa region. The road there was not easy...had to literally crawl. One of the highlights of our trip was rafting a self-propelled gun on a pontoon through the channels of the Danube Delta.
  The complexity ...determined by the weather conditions, which changed almost every hour, near impossible to make calculations for shooting because the [1] direction of the wind and [2] its strength constantly changed. In addition, the weather on the shore is very [3] different from the weather over the sea. 
  Also, we had no air cover.
  The first day of shooting was unsuccessful. We fired six shots, but missed. 
  The very next day, fog for hours.
  A large team of military specialists worked with us. In particular, a drone was raised into the sky to adjust the fire. After a few more shots, Russian’s Pantsyr caught fire and the signs of the Russian electronic communications station's operation disappeared. 
  Later, the General Staff confirmed that the targets were suppressed by our Bogdana.  So it was we who gave further opportunity to strike the island with other forces of destruction. >
  
  
  A howitzer on a pontoon boat
  
  Non-Credible Defense is going into overdrive >
  
  Russian comments to the news of Engels, from a Russian newspaper, midsize city:
  “Demilitarization .. Well done))”
  “Uh-huh...the drone was shot down...
  And those three that died, they caught it with nets ...
  Just a reminder... all is ok. 800 km from Ukraine...”
  “[regarding why three died from falling debris] It is not clear, they caught the wreckage with their hands?”
  “How did we end up in this... narrow, dark place? But more importantly, how do we get out of it now? What other losses must be in order to stop this?!”
  “Without the DPR, LPR and Crimea, Russia survived well and got along with the West. But someone's greed prevented someone from living peacefully.”
  “so nothing flew in, just lost ... but there is no time to deal with it, the main thing is to fulfill the plan for mobilization and legitimize the tricks of the departed.”
  “one drone, old and inexperienced, was nevertheless shot down ... but imagine about twenty of them modern .... and this is at a strategic aviation airfield .... where the existence of a storage of nuclear warheads is also implied ....
  In general, our military miserable country is not only incapable of fighting NATO, but in itself poses a threat to its own population.
  If this were NATO, the largest ranks would immediately fly into retirement after this.”
  “What to say. Ukrainians are a very resourceful people.”
  “So basically, this drone quietly flew 800 km and no one noticed it???”
  “The triad is under attack. Wake up.”
  “Engels again. Shot down again. Again victims from the wreckage. Maybe next time just try not to shoot down?”
  “Do we really have air defense?” >
  
  I think this is the unveiling of strategic capabilities for Ukraine which Russia cannot counter with its economy the size of Italy. It will be quite simple propeller drones with price tag of 100k fly for large distances, armed with a modern Hellfire or Brimstone missiles. These are released with automatic seeker heads on GPS coordinates towards military sites, especially airfields where the targets are soft skinned but highly valuable.
  Automatic seekers are required, because the assets are not static. This is the difference between Iranian Shaheds, which can only hit buildings or similar structures. I suspect now that the summer attack against the airfield in crimea had something similar. There were 2 almost simultaneous explosions on separate locations, something that is difficult to do if you are flying in the targets with multiple drones.
  It is not enough for Russia to suddenly move their best AA assets near Ukraine toward the rear bases. They also have to start recognizing friend from foe and stay vigilant 24/7, it ain't happening. And the crews are needed where they are right now. >
  
  
  Automatic seekers are required, because the assets are not static.
  
  Ukraine could get up-to-date satellite images/coordinates (from a number of sources) and relay to the drones until the last few minutes. Good enough to hit most military targets. >
  
  Information relay would need an active satellite connection which would increase the complexity (Starlink is geofenced, not working over there) and price. You would have to concert the satellite imaging overpass and intelligence gathering tightly to the drone reaching the area, another difficulty and expense. >
  
  This us probably a subtle "fuck you" on Germany's part. >
  
  Four explosions heard, Tokmak, Zaporozhye, where mobilized men are based.