comment: >
  
  Anyone who intentionally attacks a population center over an ideology without attempting to mitigate civilian casualties is a terrorist. That includes those who sit in a Command Center half a world away, a Kurd with a pipe bomb, a civilian contractor "blowing off steam" into a crowd of Afghanis because they are worthless and expendable, etc.
context: It's astonishing that Russia destroyed more of Mariupol than the Nazi's did. Supposedly they've even killed more civilians too, but there's no real way to confirm that yet. >
  
  Q: How were the Ukrainians ever even able to push out the Russians from Snake Island?
  A:  A howitzer on a pontoon boat.
  
  The location of the firing position from self-propelled guns was almost on the border with Romania in the Odesa region. The road there was not easy...had to literally crawl. One of the highlights of our trip was rafting a self-propelled gun on a pontoon through the channels of the Danube Delta.
  The complexity ...determined by the weather conditions, which changed almost every hour, near impossible to make calculations for shooting because the [1] direction of the wind and [2] its strength constantly changed. In addition, the weather on the shore is very [3] different from the weather over the sea. 
  Also, we had no air cover.
  The first day of shooting was unsuccessful. We fired six shots, but missed. 
  The very next day, fog for hours.
  A large team of military specialists worked with us. In particular, a drone was raised into the sky to adjust the fire. After a few more shots, Russian’s Pantsyr caught fire and the signs of the Russian electronic communications station's operation disappeared. 
  Later, the General Staff confirmed that the targets were suppressed by our Bogdana.  So it was we who gave further opportunity to strike the island with other forces of destruction. >
  
  
  A howitzer on a pontoon boat
  
  Non-Credible Defense is going into overdrive >
  
  Russian comments to the news of Engels, from a Russian newspaper, midsize city:
  “Demilitarization .. Well done))”
  “Uh-huh...the drone was shot down...
  And those three that died, they caught it with nets ...
  Just a reminder... all is ok. 800 km from Ukraine...”
  “[regarding why three died from falling debris] It is not clear, they caught the wreckage with their hands?”
  “How did we end up in this... narrow, dark place? But more importantly, how do we get out of it now? What other losses must be in order to stop this?!”
  “Without the DPR, LPR and Crimea, Russia survived well and got along with the West. But someone's greed prevented someone from living peacefully.”
  “so nothing flew in, just lost ... but there is no time to deal with it, the main thing is to fulfill the plan for mobilization and legitimize the tricks of the departed.”
  “one drone, old and inexperienced, was nevertheless shot down ... but imagine about twenty of them modern .... and this is at a strategic aviation airfield .... where the existence of a storage of nuclear warheads is also implied ....
  In general, our military miserable country is not only incapable of fighting NATO, but in itself poses a threat to its own population.
  If this were NATO, the largest ranks would immediately fly into retirement after this.”
  “What to say. Ukrainians are a very resourceful people.”
  “So basically, this drone quietly flew 800 km and no one noticed it???”
  “The triad is under attack. Wake up.”
  “Engels again. Shot down again. Again victims from the wreckage. Maybe next time just try not to shoot down?”
  “Do we really have air defense?” >
  
  I think this is the unveiling of strategic capabilities for Ukraine which Russia cannot counter with its economy the size of Italy. It will be quite simple propeller drones with price tag of 100k fly for large distances, armed with a modern Hellfire or Brimstone missiles. These are released with automatic seeker heads on GPS coordinates towards military sites, especially airfields where the targets are soft skinned but highly valuable.
  Automatic seekers are required, because the assets are not static. This is the difference between Iranian Shaheds, which can only hit buildings or similar structures. I suspect now that the summer attack against the airfield in crimea had something similar. There were 2 almost simultaneous explosions on separate locations, something that is difficult to do if you are flying in the targets with multiple drones.
  It is not enough for Russia to suddenly move their best AA assets near Ukraine toward the rear bases. They also have to start recognizing friend from foe and stay vigilant 24/7, it ain't happening. And the crews are needed where they are right now. >
  
  
  Automatic seekers are required, because the assets are not static.
  
  Ukraine could get up-to-date satellite images/coordinates (from a number of sources) and relay to the drones until the last few minutes. Good enough to hit most military targets. >
  
  Information relay would need an active satellite connection which would increase the complexity (Starlink is geofenced, not working over there) and price. You would have to concert the satellite imaging overpass and intelligence gathering tightly to the drone reaching the area, another difficulty and expense. >
  
  This us probably a subtle "fuck you" on Germany's part. >
  
  Four explosions heard, Tokmak, Zaporozhye, where mobilized men are based. >
  
  From the Wagner group channel regarding why are they fighting at Bakhmut:
  
  to take Bakhmut for the sake of Bakhmut is not the purpose of the Wagner PMC. The main objective of the company is the destruction of the enemy's manpower and equipment. If he begins to fight in the city itself, it means assault. Fortunately the "musicians" (Wagner troops)  have enough experience of fighting in large urban areas.
  
  So... They are there cause they are... winning. >
  
  So they are admitting Wagner is there literally to be cannon fodder. >
  
  Their plan A is a war of attrition, it's a bold strategy, let's see how it works out for them >
  
  that's the most brutal clip i've seen. Its NSFL >
  
  I think I'm gonna leave that link blue >
  
  There is nothing gory in the video.  Maybe screen resolution is low.  Smoke and flying dirt block out a lot.  
  If you read the title and comments then the idea is already something you have to process. >
  
  [ Removed by Reddit ] >
  
  Russia "bringing in huge amount of reserves" to fight in Kreminna, Ukraine says
  
  Kreminna lies on a key north-south road from Svatove, which Russian troops had been using to resupply and which became even more important to them after Ukrainian troops took over Kupyansk, a resupply hub to the northwest of Kreminna and Svatove. Losing Kreminna would limit Russia's ability to resupply its troops in the key city of Severodonetsk.
  
  Russia underlining that the imminent liberation of Kreminna will be devastating for them. >
  
  Oh yes, Russia bringing lots of troops into an exposed bulge where they can be shelled in bulk.
  Classic. >
  
  Basically himars bait. >
  
  Just regular arty, honestly. >
  
  150 Russians were wounded and killed after near Polovinkino
  “The Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the area where the enemy's manpower was concentrated, near the Polovynkino Starobil district.” >
  
  
  Invaders get WRECKED! >
  
  Stark contrast to the bus that wouldn't pick up a disabled Russian vet in a wheelchair. Do they disagree with her or are they worried about guilt by association? >
  
  Heroes >
  
  I am glad so many such heroes emerged also in the russia proper in the first days of the war.
  Oh wait..... >
  
  yes the poor Russians are afraid to act because the government is so oppressive and powerful, better to just not have an opinion while they take their kids to be slaughtered so Putin can keep a lid on their brains for a few more days to pretend they are not losing the war >
  
  From 24.02.2022 to 27.12.2022 estimated Russian losses so far (change since previous):
  103220 (+620) Personnel
  3015 (+0) Tanks
  6024 (+7) Armored Personnel Vehicles
  1998 (+2) Artillery Systems
  418 (+0) MLRS
  212 (+0) Anti-aircraft Warfare Systems
  283 (+0) Aircraft
  267 (+0) Helicopters
  1707 (+0) UAV operational-tactical level
  653 (+0) Missiles
  16 (+0) Warships / Boats
  4652 (+5) Other vehicles
  179 (+1) Special Equipment >
  
  losing 3,000+ tanks is completely fucking insane. assuming all of their tanks are capable of service (doubt it) they are approaching 1 in every 3 destroyed, in 10 months, in one corner of one country in europe. if this carries on as-is for 10 more months, they will probably have NO tanks. literally none. wtf? >
  
  General Staff:
  
  On December 25, our soldiers struck a concentration of Russian invaders near Novobilozerka, Vasylivsky District, Zaporizhzhia Region. The enemy lost up to 100 soldiers dead and wounded. Among them are 15 employees of the FSB. >
  
  FSB casualties going up will probably have more weight in the "motherland" than soldier casualties. >
  
  In two weeks: Explosions reported at Ukrainka airbase >
  
  How far can these old drones fly hypothetically? >
  
  I would suspect being intercontinental bombers there are only a few airbases equipped to handle them.  Russia probably had one east and one west.  They can't use the western one any more so they had to go east.  
  Major achievement by Ukraine.  They denied the western base and took these bombers out of the equation for now. >
  
  Before the invasion, Putin was complaining about "security issues". 
  Well, NOW he's got real security issues. >
  
  I agree.  I might add that the internal issues make it worse since everyone now knows Russia is a paper tiger. >
  
  What was that rocket fired at the end? Are these things basically like the Slayer from perfect dark, a launcher that fires a remote-controlled explosive? >
  
  How have you made it this far without ever seeing a Javelin? >
  
  never seen their POV videos, I don't watch many war vis for mental health reasons lol >
  
  I don't know what you're referencing but the Javelin is an ATGM, so it's an infrared guided fire and forget anti-tank missile. So the explosive is not remote controlled it's just...a missile. >
  
  The Switchblade 600 has a Javelin warhead. >
  
  Interesting that they decided to admit Ukrainian drones can get that far into the country instead of screaming smoking accident like idiots. >
  
  Hard to deny that anything happened when the reports and videos of an explosion spread across telegram and other outlets withing minutes. >
  
  They’ve been criticizing him for this several months now. >
  
  Nice to have a reminder that there are some good Russians.
  (people don't need to reply with "yeah, but...", we all know already) >
  
  I bet the poor elderly couple just lost their son and decided they had nothing left to lose. I’m sorry we will never find out because of how terrible Russian “news” is. They will probably both be de facto killed for their “crime”. >
  
  Also in the first months of the invasion, the Russians claimed that they did not bomb civilians. They said that Ukraine itself is bombing its cities in order to blame Russia for this. >
  
  Gosh I remember when we were all afraid back in February as to how quickly Russians would end up establishing air superiority.
  Fast forward ten months and that still hasn't happened, meanwhile their ground forces are constantly being chased and bombed by Ukrainian drones. >
  
  
  Maria Lvova-Belova 
  
  The woman has five biological and 17 adopted children
  Jesus Christ that is morbid. Poor kids. >
  
  Even if you're evil and intend to use the children as slaves that feels like too high of a number. >
  
  Is it a new type of drone? Looks like based on the explosions from the hits, they have a lot of ammunition >
  
  It looks like it's a modified quadcopter with an RPG facing forward (for a directional attack). Basically a steerable RPG at that point. >
  
  Ukrainian military being creative again, creating a mobile observation station out of a GAZ Volga. >
  
  Engels—What we Know So Far:
  DW writes that:
  
  
  a drone fired two missiles, one was shot down, other hit its target. Drone itself was not shot down. 
  
  
  The ‘base control center’ was hit.
  
  
  3 killed, 4 injured.
  
  
  Dialog reports what locals claim, (And Fakty, too):
  
  5 bombers damaged 
  
  The Air Force spokesman:
  
  wait a few days, for when satellite images from the airfield appear, in order to see the real consequences of the explosions.
  
  Editor of military publication Defense Express, live on EspressoTV:
  
  
  Russia has claimed that removed planes, bombers from Engels, and moved north.  Never happened.
  
  
  Russia will not acknowledge that bombers were damaged.  Acknowledging would mean Russian air defense cannot protect the nuclear triad. 
  
  
  ”But we understand that the Russians will not admit the losses associated with the strikes on the planes. Because this is the undermining of the basis of the Russian nuclear triad. If we can destroy Russian strategic bombers with conventional drones, it means that Russian air defense is not working well and the Russian nuclear triad is vulnerable.”
  
  
  Editor, Defence Express:
  
  
  there was a fire at the airfield, which took 3+ hours to extinguish
  
  
  bomber-carriers Tu-95MS and Tu-160 were parked there
  
  
  Unverified:
  
  
  5 Tu-95ms strategic bombers “seriously damaged”
  
  
  2 other planes “slightly damaged”
  
  
  17 soldiers killed
  
  
  26 wounded, 4 in serious condition 
  
  
  already trying to repair control tower >
  
  This quote about the nuclear tiad is really interesting. Their submarines are all noisy enough to be followed. Their air defense is now demonstrably inadequate to protect bombers on the ground, and so that just leaves the land based ICBMs- SS-18 Satan, SS-19 Stiletto, and SS-27 Topol-M.
  They claim to have about 479 all told —but we also know they have been cannibalizing them for space flight, some are bound to be as quality as the rest of Russian hardware, and if ordered everyone wouldn’t even fire.— so let’s say an optimistic 400.
  NATO/US has AGEIS, THAAD, and ground based midcourse (space) deterrents for ICBMs, which though not foolproof- are actually effective. 
  Which means, if there TRIAD really is effectively one pillar, the worst case doomsday scenario may actually be globally survivable. If west was quick, and did not retaliate in kind anyway… it’s an interesting thought experiment to think about anyway >
  
  
  AGEIS
  
  Isn't it for intermediate-range BMs only?
  
  GMD
  
  AFAIK, US only has 44 launchers (1x SM-3 in each) and that's not enough to intercept all ICBMs and their warheads (assuming one SM-3 is only intercepting one warhead).
  Plus, the probability of interception isn't high, as far as I've read. >
  
  I might've been confused, I thought that AEGIS and GMD are 2 different systems >
  
  I don't care how much propaganda or false information is fed to these people, no excuses of any kind to do something like this.  Even if they threatened to kill your family.. How could you ever kill a 1 or 3 yrs old?      I hope Russia gets pummeled into the dark ages and they deserve everything they have coming to them >
  
  
  no excuses of any kind to do something
  
  If you go to Russian forums and telegram, for them it was "okay" because victims were apparently Gipsies. >
  
  Hah and the Ukranians are supposed to be the nazis... >
  
  the way he talks and words he uses sounds like they pulled a gopnik off the street to pose as a priest >
  
  I think that’s the selection process yes.
  Except it’s not off the street, it’s out of the Kremlin.
  Apparently the FSB counts as a theological college in Russia. >
  
  Russia is moving their nuclear bombers from Engles to Siberia.
  Why should they need to move? Surely it would be easier to just move in better air defence?
  …if they had it.
  Isn’t this Russia basically admitting it’s air defence is rubbish and it’s not going to get better?
  Just another sign of Russian military hitting its limits. The cracks are appearing and they are going to get bigger. >
  
  Timeline around the Sievierodonetsk area and other relevant events, and why this area may be important:
  Early April - Russia retreats from Kyiv and redeploys forces to try fully capture Donbas.
  Mid April - Russia attacks Kreminna (1) and captures it. They continue their attack on Sievierodonetsk.
  Russians realize their strength is in their artillery and zerg rushing the enemy.
  Early May - Russia attacks Rubizhne (2) (located north west of Sievierodonetsk) and captures it. This allows Russia to heavily focus on Sievierodonetsk with lots of artillery.
  Russia also concludes the Mariupol siege. They suffered heavy losses in Mariupol but still redeploy to Sievierodonetsk.
  Mid to Late June - Ukraine withdraws from Sievierodonetsk (3) and Lysychansk (4) under heavy fire, Russia now focuses on Bakhmut (5).
  Ukraine was criticized for staying in Sievierodonetsk for longer than they should have, but I think it was the right call because it stalled the Russians enough to allow for the arrival of Western artillery, all while inflicting heavy losses.
  June/July - M777, M270 and HIMARS introduces themselves, wipes out Russian ammunition depots and supply lines everywhere, causing ammunition starvation.
  16th June - Ground footage of a Ukrainian Tochka-U wiping out a very large ammunition depot at Krasny Luch.
  Bakhmut (5) and Siversk frontline stalls heavily from here onwards, while Western artillery destroys the entire Russian strategy.
  September - Kharkiv counteroffensive before winter effectively renders Bakhmut (5) a less meaningful target. Russia now mass mobilizes for the war.
  October - Crimean bridge explosion exacerbates supply issues in the south of Ukraine and Crimea.
  November - Russia retreats from Kherson, both sides redeploy to the other fronts.
  December - We come full circle for the Russians in Kreminna (1).
  Ukraine can potentially threaten the entire north Luhansk area if Kreminna (1) is captured or somehow bypassed. This includes the Sievierodonetsk area (2, 3, 4), Svatove, Starobilsk and even Luhansk itself. This would also likely collapse the Bakhmut (5) offensive.
  It seems likely that Ukraine will fight very well in the heavily forested areas around Sievierodonetsk in 2023. They will likely capture it like the Russians did back in June, if things go according to plan. >
  
  
  Ukraine was criticized for staying in Sievierodonetsk for longer than they should have
  
  By whom? 
  Ukraine would know best about whether or not that was a good option. It's hard to see how it could have been a bad option. Attackers in urban warfare always take heavier losses, and it may well have also bought time to prepare the next line of defenses, and might be part of why it's so difficult for them to make inroads in Bakhmut. >
  
  SD was such a meat grinder that Kyiv sent foreign legion to subdue losses among its regular forces.
  But ultimately, momentum is the most dangerous factor (after surprise) in the battlefield. And after Popasna it turned incredibly dangerous. So the sacrifice for SD was justified. >
  
  The bit about Poland and Hungary invading and occupying western Ukraine is hilarious.
  First of all, Poland especially has been helping Ukraine as much as they can, because they know what Russian invasions are like first hand.
  Second, even though there are small Hungarian and Polish speaking groups in western Ukraine, nobody but some 80-year-old former Nazi collaborators talked seriously about retaking that territory, because it's long gone.
  You know who talks all the time about retaking territory based solely on which country it used to be a part of decades ago?
  Putin.
  He even suggested to Hungary that they could "have" a piece of Ukraine as payment for not getting in the way of Russia's invasion! Now he's saying that Russia needs to save Ukraine from an aggressive Hungary!?
  What's truly, truly insane is that when I spoke with a friend who lived his entire life on the other side of the planet, isn't Russian, and doesn't speak Russian, the first thing he asked me when we discussed the war is: "What do you think about the buildup of forces in Poland and Hungary in preparation to invade Ukraine?"
  The propaganda from Russia is insanely effective.
  If you ask me, the entire world made a mistake in not simply cutting off their fibre links the second the war started.
  Why are we allowing the enemy to use our networks to seed lies amongst our population!?
  A direct equivalent would be allowing Joseph Goebbels unlimited ability to publish whatever he wanted in London newspapers throughout WWII! Can you imagine? Well... you don't need to! Russia is doing that kind of thing right now. >
  
  Medvedev got drunk and posted some delirious wishcasting shit 8 hours ago and we're still taking about it? >
  
  He wasn't even serious. He was calling in the craziest shit, so he add to that list. >
  
  Wow I thought Austria was a lost cause, and I don't blame them. Part of Austria's allowance to live at the end of WW2 was that they allow open season spying between USA and USSR. But in Germany this not so easily forgivable >
  
  The world is not paying them enough money to fund their BS so they're going to stop selling oil to like 75% of the world, which will cause a massive surplus of Russian oil which they will have to sell dirt cheap to get rid of? Great plan! >
  
  Vova is not just a master strategist; he is a master economist! >
  
  Are we sure it's cloud and not just an awful lot of smoke and/or the base simply isn't there anymore?  ^/s >
  
  
  Russian City Mourns Its Lost Soldiers, but Doesn’t Resent Putin’s War
  
  Is it really Putin's war though? Maybe the West should stop being delusional about Russia. It's Russia's Putin, not Putin's Russia >
  
  It's going to take a century before Russia joins the 21st century, and by then they'll still be a hundred years out of date. >
  
  Russian economy
  
  The first issue to recognize is that Russian budget is beginning to literally crater. No, this does not mean that Russia will run out of money any time soon but it does mean that their liquidity is now directly affecting their geopolitics and also domestic policy. 
  Still, the question remains: are there bank runs going on in Russia? Everything I know so far suggests: not yet.
  Long lines, general disarray and many depositors getting screwed basically happens all the time in Russia. This did not last and did not produce any pressure on Russian government to end the war.
  Everything we are seeing so far is minor and is merely a sign of a small economic disturbance. I do believe things can snowball at any minute in Russia because the necessary conditions seem to be in place but nothing we see so far indicates a major breakdown of the system.
  
  Many more interesting points behind the link. >
  
  Yeah, I don't see Russia's economy exploding overnight. The bigger issue is the death by 1000 cuts from the lack of tech support and imports that leads to o/g industry slowly breaking down. The loss of industrial equipment as they are forced to cannibalize parts to keep things running. It will be a slow bleed as plants go offline, or maintenance takes a few weeks longer then it should, or a train engine breaks down that was delivering industrial inputs, etc. The list of things that are just going to SLOWLY break down over time is growing, and it just bleeds them dry over time. >
  
  The problem is we're now going on almost a year of nonstop horrific economic news for Russia--we're well past "overnight" and well into "Super Shredder trying to knock over the pier he's standing on" territory. >
  
  To Russia a damaged bomber may as well be destroyed. they don't have any parts and are cannibalizing other planes. They were the only operators so they can't even steal or borrow from anyone else. >
  
  
  To Russia a damaged bomber may as well be destroyed
  
  Likewise, an operational bomber is likely a damaged bomber as well >
  
  Until it lands in a building right after takeoff. >
  
  Technically it would only be more damaged after that >
  
  Putin has today distributed nine golden rings to ~~mortal men doomed to die~~ the leaders of CIS countries during his summit in St Petersburgh. Really, can't make this shit up. >
  
  Biden is clearly Gandalf. >
  
  Trump is Wormtongue >
  
  Wormtongue was highly competent.  Does not match. >
  
  Trump is Lotho Sackville-Baggins. >
  
  Great channel, wasn't aware of it. Thanks for sharing it. >
  
  All this focus on Bahkmut and I'm just wondering when UA will hit the Crimean bridge again and fuck the southern logistics properly. >
  
  they want to keep the bridge traversable by car so that Russian civilians can fuck off relatively easily - at least that's my presumption >
  
  They do until they don't.  If they make a successful attack to split the Russians and reach the Azov Sea, then dropping the bridge becomes a big priority. >
  
  Can't wait to see that aircraft number once again go up when the airbase attack is fully confirmed! >
  
  I think the most recent drone/UAV strike hit a command centre building, not aircraft.  But the details are still pretty sketchy.  It's been cloudy over Engels for the past few days, so no good satellite pics available yet. >
  
  I'm really pleasantly surprised by Meloni's foreign policy. Originally thought she would be another Orban, she seems to be more akin to the Polish populists, right-wing yet anti-Russian. >
  
  The anti-Russian thing is a very recent pivot. She’s more like right-wing populist with survival instincts >
  
  Well this time her instincts were spot on >
  
  I wonder, has there ever been a time where Putin actually deescalated a situation? Is he actually capable of doing that at all? It seems like the he is all gas no brakes. >
  
  When he gets squarely punched in the face and told to sit the fuck down, yes.
  When Turkey simply shot down the russian plane entering their airspace, it never happened again, no word, no drama, no nuclear rhetoric.
  The world will have to learn one day that the way to deal with Putin is just by destroying him >
  
  The plane wasn’t even in Turkish airspace when it was fired upon or hit. It briefly entered Turkish airspace, probably accidentally, earlier in the flight. Fucking madlad. 
  But as you said, Putin deescalated. >
  
  
  The plane wasn’t even in Turkish airspace when it was fired upon or hit.
  
  Sure thing.
  
  It briefly entered Turkish airspace, probably accidentally, earlier in the flight. Fucking madlad. 
  
  Nonsense.  Russian and Syrian planes had repeatedly entered Turkish airspace and Turkey had already warned that if it didn't stop they would be fired on, like Syria did when they shot down a Turkish plane a few years earlier. >
  
  I'm expecting a battle of the bulge offensive from Russia before this is over. They will throw everything they have left into one massive assault. I don't see them slowly laying down and accepting  defeat. >
  
  The problem of course is that I'm not even sure they can realistically organize themselves for an assault nearly as effective. The Bulge was able to be put together in the pre-satellite imagery and pin-point long-range weapon days. If the Russians actually tried to concentrate and organize forces for that type of push, it would be spotted months in advance and harassed with every type of weapon continuously. >
  
  GPSJam is a pretty neat site, zoom in to Moscow or around Saratov (where Ukraine previously struck) and it's all lit up in red. >
  
  Question is, why is Turkiye jamming GPS? They expecting attacks from Syria? >
  
  Bombs with mobile phone detonators are/were popular from Kurdish terrorists/resistance fighters depending on your view.