comment: >
  
  Another front for Russia to deal with would certainly help you Crain quite a bit right now
context: Most of the Chechens you see fighting in Russia aren't just that - they're Kadyrov's Chechens, through and through. For the most part, Chechnya has been spared the mobilization we've seen elsewhere, particularly in minority-heavy areas. The overwhelming majority of the Chechens fighting and dying in Ukraine are Kadyrovites, the Chechen President's personal paramilitary. These people get tons more money compared to your average Russian mobik, not to mention better equipment and training. A lot of them are there because they're either in it for the money or personal loyalty to Kadyrov. With all that said, though, I don't think they've been involved in any particularly brutal engagements apart from the fighting in the Kyiv suburbs in the early weeks of the war. We heard that the VDV was decimated at Kyiv, and that they're suffering heavy losses in the East even today; we're seeing Wagner mercs get bloodied and dying in the hundreds around Bakhmut just about every other day now. The Chechens barely get a mention. I won't comment on whether or not Kadyrov's people are an effective fighting force or just TikTok warriors, but the fact of the matter is that they're usually not frontline soldiers. There have been rumors that some of them were assigned to blocking units, i.e. back-of-the-line formations whose sole purpose is to keep frontline troops from retreating, whether through intimidation or executing deserters and/or retreating troops. Anyway, the point here is that Tuvans, Buryats, etc. have been dying in the thousands and we haven't seen any activity that would predicate the kind of wide-scale social unrest necessary for a war or even a small-scale insurrection.
  Plenty of Chechen veterans have been fighting on Ukraine's side since the start of the war, but these people have been living in exile for the past 20+ years. Unless Russia literally falls apart at the end of the war, there's virtually no way for these people to go back home to overthrow Kadyrov and/or wage war against Russia itself. Even though you see signs of dissent in Chechnya every now and then, you won't see people rise up against Kadyrov unless they're some organized movement or even just an individual encouraging them to do so. And Kadyrov's own security apparatus is backed by that of the Russian state, plus the untold billions Kadyrov has received from Moscow.
  I wanna see the Russian empire disintegrate just as much as the next guy, but let's be realistic - it won't. Even if Ukraine ends the war on its terms, even if Putin and his people are forced out, I just can't see the social fabric of Russia breaking down so badly that the central government has to fight wars or insurrections in its own federal subjects. Despite all the setbacks Russia has suffered, all the criticism aimed at Shoigu, Prigozhin, and various generals and ministers, Kadyrov's stock has only gone up. He understands that he himself will never be President of Russia, so he's hitched his boat to Putin to be an autocrat in his own little fiefdom. If the winds shift and Putin's fall is inevitable, he'll do his damndest to make sure he's with whoever comes out on top. >
  
  Damn bro, what's your source of knowledge?
  Suggest me some books too! >
  
  Well, Chechnya is already de facto somewhat independent. Russian laws doesn't seem to work there. Ramzan Kadyrov is the only head of a Russian region who has his own paramilitary. No region of Russia enjoys such degree of autonomy. And there is almost no ethnic Russians living in Chechnya.
  If Russia starts falling apart, I don't believe Moscow will try to keep Chechnya in the Federation. Russian military is already heavily weakened by the war in Ukraine. Who knows what will happen in the next few years. But Kadyrov, on the other side, is a Russian puppet and it's questionable if he can hold his power without support from Moscow.
  So it all depends on how long Kadyrov can hold on power. Instead of another war we can see surprisingly quick and peaceful secession of Chechnya.
  What's more interesting for me is will it cause more independence movements or not. >
  
  You said it well. I just want to add that there’s a large chance that who ever succeeds Putin, would not believe in the multiethnic Russia we see today. A lot of the opposition are ethnic Russian hardliners. >
  
  Seems doubtful. Russia still has quite a substantial military left and while that may not be enough to beat a large, well organized military with NATO weapons like Ukraine it is absolutely enough to level Grozny again. We also haven’t seen major acts of popular resistance from with Chechnya since the war began either in the form of mass protests or in the form of separatist attacks and partisan warfare. This leads me to believe a third Chechen uprising is unlikely unless the Russian government in Moscow collapses first.