comment: >
  
  Guaranteed minimum  rates and residuals, health insurance, negotiated breaks and work hours.  What’s different?
context: Considering Nikki Haley has all but confirmed a 2024 run, I'll submit her name as my answer to the prompt. >
  
  Honestly even if Trump and DeSantis don't run, I don't think she'd have that great of a shot. She has establishment support but that's about it >
  
  She’s the GOP’s equivalent of Kamala, has the CV and the beltway loves them but no traction with rank and file voters. >
  
  She's worse.  At least Kamala was a sitting Senator from the largest state.  Haley's been unemployed for years. >
  
  But Haley is about 3,000 times smarter than Kamala. >
  
  I can't imagine what you'd be basing that claim on. Kamala Harris was a Senator and before that an Attorney General. >
  
  So what. That doesn't mean she's smart.  Haley is far more articulate and can actually speak logically. Harris struggles almost every time she opens her mouth. This isn't a big secret. >
  
  I don't know what you're hearing that makes you think Haley is "far more articulate", and what she says is typical "moderate" GOP bullshit. But Kamala's actual career is definitely better evidence of her intelligence than whatever impression you might have gotten from her public speaking. >
  
  If you want to convince me that your opinions are widely held, linking to some shitty conservative blog is probably not the way to do it.
  So Kamala Harris is bad at public speaking. That's not really strong evidence either way re: her intelligence or competence at actual governing or legislation. Harris's actual career dwarfs Haley's. She's the sitting VPOTUS, a former Senator, and a former Attorney General. What's Haley done since leaving the governorship? Serve as an ambassador to the UN? That's a job that's known for being a spoils system gig with no real qualifications needed, and she served under the notoriously corrupt and incompetent Trump administration.
  Having once been governor and getting a job from the guy known for appointing cronies and stooges isn't that impressive. I haven't heard anything substantive from her in terms of rhetoric or platform. The only unusual thing about her is that she's non-white and a woman, which means the MAGAts will never support her in a national race no matter what she changes her name to. That she doesn't seem to have realized this reflects rather poorly on her skills as a politician. Kamala at least knows her own party. >
  
  Brian Kemp and Glenn Youngkin are the next tier down from Trump and DeSantis. Youngkin is already putting a campaign together because he’s termed out in VA. Kemp has crossover appeal (there were a lot of Kemp/Warnock voters in GA last year), but he probably won’t run unless Trump and DeSantis stumble. >
  
  I’d definitely put Youngkin in the next tier below Trump and DeSantis. His woke bashing politics in VA will play well with the GOP base plus his ability to have won an election in a blue state and stay on message will mean he also has an “electability” argument and can come across as a competent adult who Republicans aren’t ashamed to support. He has enough political experience that he doesn’t seem entirely unqualified while not enough political history to avoid being tied to unpopular votes or be seen as part of the machine. The downside is that if he can’t win in 2024 he probably doesn’t have too much future as I doubt he could win statewide in VA again. >
  
  VA governors can only do a single consecutive term, so he'd have to go run for Senate. I feel as though Edwards and Kaine would mop the floor with him - they were both popular governors and remain popular now. >
  
  
  Edwards
  
  You mean Warner? >
  
  Yeah, I was high when I wrote that. >
  
  Excluding DeSantis and Trump - I see the next 3 in line as Glenn Youngkin, Nikki Haley, and  Mike Pompeo.  And it's possible Haley would be the VP pick. >
  
  Where the fuck is the constituency for Pompeo? Guy's a self-serious dimwit that nobody serious actually takes seriously, but he's got no record of anything the MAGA nuts are interested in, he's regularly in the low single figures in Republican voter polls, he's about as charismatic as Pence, I just don't get it. What's his lane? >
  
  Running to be the Republican nominee in 1988 >
  
  Mike Pence would still go for it Id guess, and he may win with a fickle coalition of evangelicals and neocons. But that's a very big may. Honestly, that's kind of unpredictably who would challenge Trump - in fact, your premise is hard to wrap your head around since DeSantis is the only one I see beating Trump in the primaries. 
  I know many in the beltway talked about Tim Scott aswell. >
  
  The MAGA crowd has already turned on Pence for his actions on Jan. 6th, he can give it a go but his goose is cooked. >
  
  His action of not dying? >
  
  Trumpets see Pence as a full on traitor for certifying the election >
  
  I did a cross country roadtrip following the 2020 election and the amount of Trump-Pence signs where Pence had been scratched out or painted over was pretty astonishing. Pence isn’t loved in Indiana and his national career is over. He’s also just the epitome of a milquetoast personality and that doesn’t seem to be what’s driving the GOP base these days. >
  
  Yeah I believe Pence is ranking 3rd in primary straw polls in his own state. Dude is done. >
  
  If Trump’s campaign indeed fizzles out and DeSanris doesn’t run, my guess is Pence and Youngkin become the favorites. 
  Pence is a traitor to much of the MAGAs for certifying the 2020 election, but he remains on good terms with other branches of the party (Religious Right especially) and before the 2020 election would’ve been the natural successor to Trumpism.
  Youngkin defeated an incumbent in a state that had moved more and more towards Democrats, and his current approval ratings of 50 something percent suggests he can win over left-leaning suburbs by appearing non-Trumpian, while still being a right wing culture warrior. However, it should be noted that the state’s GOP elders had to select him, and he wasn’t the winner of a primary. He won’t challenge Trump as long as Trump remains viable. >
  
  Virginia governors cannot run for consecutive terms, so I question how much Youngkin’s approval rating matters. He ran as a moderate and then pivoted hard to the Right as soon as he won. No suburban Dems who pay attention will ever vote for him. >
  
  I think Tim Scott could thread the needle between establishment GOP and MAGA. He'd pull a base of establishment voters and possibly even a few independents and if he had the right rhetoric, could pull a little from MAGA land too. Being from South Carolina, he could kinda have the Joe Biden path to nomination: poor showing in Iowa, poor showing in New Hampshire, meh showing in Nevada, home run in South Carolina. I think that only works in a fractured field though, but if Trump and Desantis don't run it would easily be a fractured field. >
  
  But, it’s the same with Herschel Walker. The GOP sees a black guy, thinks they’ll get the black vote but then still gets 1 percent of the black vote then wonder why they flopped >
  
  Tim Scott can put a string of words together to form a sentence though. He’s a much better candidate than Walker. >
  
  So is my dog’s left testicle and he was neutered ten years ago. >
  
  Your dog’s testicle would be very competitive in a GOP primary. >
  
  It’s a winner, for sure. It hates immigrants and Drag Queen story hour. >
  
  If Trump and DeSantis both fizzle, then one has to start wondering if there's anyone in the GOP who truly wants the job. It's been pointed out that as the Republicans have continued to move towards a party of white Christian grievance culture, we see the proliferation of more and more elected officials on the right who appear to be in it for the money and not much more - take the peculiar case of George Santos, whose roommate recently claimed that he only wanted one term so he could get a pension and health care for life. 
  It seems like an extreme, but as the older generation of Republicans retire and die off, who exactly are they being replaced with? Mitch McConnell is as craven as they get, but there's no question that the man wans to make deals and get things that he considers beneficial passed. When you look at the younger right, it's hard to tell what, if anything, they even stand for anymore, except to make noise and get attention for the sake of fundraising. Lest we not forget that relatively small-time personality Steven Crowder just turned down a $50 million dollar contract from the Daily Wire, so there's still tons of money to be made spouting populist and white nationalist rhetoric. 
  Personally it's my hope that the more media savvy Millennials and Zoomers prove capable of seeing through all the bullshit these guys spread. Resultingly, as they become a continuously larger proportion of the electorate, the right-wing grifters finally get relegated to the political sidelines. Then they're welcome to busk and grift to their heart's content, just so long as the serious people are actually in charge and getting shit tone. >
  
  The problem is that the GOP has backed itself into an ideological corner where they’re married to a free market absolutism as to empower traditional hierarchies, but the market itself no longer sees those hierarchies as having the valuable dollar. Combine that with a base that’s aging and shrinking but has no tolerance for the base to be expanded, it drives Republicans into a politics of loud but murky grievance politics; Make America Great Again, but we’re not going to define when it was last great or what made it great. They just hope to appeal to those with grievances about change but will fill in the blank themselves as to what change was the problem. >
  
  I assume they want the 1950s... with a highly Christian, male patriarchy culture and one-income-is-enough manufacturing jobs that shipped off to China by the late 1980s.
  It's like wanting to have a pet dinosaur. Not likely. You can buy an iguana though. >
  
  White... you forgot "white" in that description of the 50s - a time of rather unpleasant segregation. The U.S. has been brownifying ever since, and the ratio will flip to a white minority inside my lifetime... and there is nothing the white population can do about it, except suppress votes and crack down on immigration - and even that won't be enough for their inevitable slip out of the dominant slot. As a white man myself, I really don't care because my parents raised me pretty well and I'm a strong believer in equal rights for all. But bigotry is born of fear, and these MAGA asshats are terrified. >
  
  But the GOP just needs time to institute rules requiring a supermajority to undo what they’re trying to implement. They know their demographic is shrinking, so they’re trying to ensconce minority power for generations to come. >
  
  Yes this is the obvious plan - it's not even subtle. I'm not claiming otherwise. And if we are able to stop them now, then democracy still has a chance in the future. They understand that this is their last best chance to seize power - right now. And if they are successful, democracy in the U.S. will fail. >
  
  Glenn Youngkin maybe. He managed to win the governorship in Virginia, a state that Biden carried by 10 points. Plus, he’s term limited after 2025 since Virginia doesn’t allow governors to serve consecutive terms. He’s a lesser known version of DeSantis. If both Trump and DeSantis don’t run, I definitely see Youngkin running. >
  
  I believe your scenarios are mutually exclusive. Trump's campaign won't fizzle if DeSantis doesn't get in. DeSantis is somewhat of a field clearer. If he doesn't get it, 9000 people run and Trump wins with 35% of the vote again. When DeSantis does eventually get in, he's going to chase off most everyone but goobers like Larry Hogan and Chris Sununu who are either delusional or trying to grift a couple bucks out of a run.* At least that's how I see it all going down.
  ​
  *Plenty people will put their names in the race, but most all will be gone before the first primary arrives. >
  
  
  Plenty people will put their names in the race, but most all will be gone before the first primary arrives.
  
  It seems like many candidates who fit this category also–I'm sure coincidentally–come out with a new book right about the same time. >
  
  There's a lot of money to be made in losing a presidential race. >
  
  See Carly Fiorina >
  
  Maybe Rand Paul? I feel like GOP wants a "fighter" more than anything right now, and he has been the top dog when it comes to fighting about Fauci/COVID stuff, and he also fell in line behind Trump consistently and seems to have won his base over. Pre Trump he would have / did struggled for being too extremist and "non-establishment", but now those are pluses more than anything, and he would fare a lot better this time imo. 
  A dark horse pick could be Kristi Noem... I don't know a ton about her but she seems to have the conservative credentials and could be a breakout candidate if the conditions are right. >
  
  Who can win?  I don't know. 
  If for some reason DeSantis falls off a boat or something and is out of the picture, my guess is a LOT of Republicans will try and take his place.
  I predict one or more of the stupider and more obnoxious MAGA republicans will jump in.  People like Greene and Gaetz.  I don't think they have enough individual charisma to win the primary, but they will turn the election into a zoo, full of the most cringey dramatics imaginable.
  Possibly the remnant of Never Trumpers will throw their hats in in the vain hope that there are some Reagan Republicans still hanging around.  People like Liz Cheney or Chris Christie.  But I don't think they'll get enough popular backing and they'll stay in the 1-2% range until they drop out.
  I think the person who will most likely throw his hat in and win would be someone like Abbot, who says all the Trumpian things the MAGA republicans love but isn't as pants-on-head idiotic as MTG and her ilk. >
  
  I actually have a theory that Desantis isn’t announcing because he’s waiting to see how bad the democrats and the feds fuck shit up for the average person.  Desantis knows that bumping an incumbent is hard - and he’s young enough (44) that he can afford to wait until 2028.
  His governorship ends in 2026, which would give him 2 years to run against Biden if he wins essentially.  It’s a win win to wait - because he can also say he didn’t leave Florida in the lurch, which speaks to his principles etc. also, he can let Trump implode again, and then come out and say “He couldn’t get it done, but I will” without getting into a shit slinging competition with Trump. >
  
  I agree with this… I think he needs time to polish up too. There’s no need for him to taint his chances while trump is still hanging around. Better to wait for the clearing. >
  
  Why do I have an uncomfortable feeling that Lauren Bobert, MTG, and Matt Gatez are all going to run for prez as a way to consolidate support for Donald Trump. >
  
  Would love if Jeb Bush runs on "let's end the madness" tune and performs well.
  And that's lowering the standards when Jeb is your savior. >
  
  Bush/Cheney 2.0? >
  
  Kanye West and his VP pick Kid rock. Probably MTG and the My Pillow Guy too. Not joking. Any of Trump's loyalists who have a giant ego and something to lose in this battle, ie. maybe Flynn. 
  Pence and Haley will run. Mike Pompeo is being talked about. And I wouldn't be surprised if Tulsi Gabbard goes for it as well. >
  
  
  Kanye West and his VP pick Kid rock.
  
  Will this spell the end of the Birthday Party? >
  
  Sadly The Birthday Party haven't played since the 80s. >
  
  Woah! I'm a casual Nick Cave fan (well, very casual). I've never heard this before. I kinda dig it. >
  
  Birthday Party were absolutely wild, Nick Cave has mellowed out these days but in the 70s/80s he went as hard as any rock star in the world. >
  
  We are going to have at least 10 candidates in the early stages. I am sure we wont repeat 2016 with people stick around forever but we will go into Iowa/New Hampshire with at least 4 candidates.
  Haley, Cruz, pence and Scott could find a niche. 
  If it isn't trump or desantis, I would guess it would be Haley but who knows how she will campaign? She has a broad range of experience and can position herself with and against trump. 
  I am not as sold as desantis at this point. Desantis has zero charisma. He might appeal to trump's base but Florida isn't representative of the GOP base. Charlie Crist landed jabs in a debate, and Charlie Crist isn't known for his debate skills. >
  
  Who would Pence find a niche with?  Evangelicals hate him >
  
  In this unlikely scenario, we'd get to watch Glenn Youngkin and Mike Pence fight over who got the winning lottery ticket. 
  I think Youngkin would probably come out on top in that fight; he's got youth, a 100% win rate (the benefit of having only run once) and hasn't had long enough in office to build up a record that really showcases his hypocrisy. >
  
  Following the progression, Matt Gaetz or George Santos seem the logical choices.  
  They're both inveterate liars with mounting legal problems- that's certainly on brand. >
  
  Do not submit low investment content. This subreddit is for genuine discussion. >
  
  Won't 2028 still likely be an incumbent president, at least as much as now?  Whoever is president will likely want to run again, unless it is Biden and he is term limited.
  I think it will be like 2016 and everyone and their nephew who has a social media channel about politics will be running.  Add in a bunch that want pardons.  It would be a great time for ranked choice or some similar voting reform for the primary. >
  
  If it's not Trump or DeSantis, then it's Nikki Haley, and she could win. 
  Doesn't matter if some Conservatives or Republicans don't like her or not, they aren't going to vote for Biden or Newsom instead. 
  She's a minority woman with both foreign policy experience and a decent, mostly scandal free, American political jacket. 
  She will not excite the base, but so what at this point. The country is tired of Trump's antics and fearful of Biden's age and clear cognitive decline. Newsom has run California into the ground, so that works against him. I don't see middle America warming up to Newsom. 
  Nikki Haley will be stale, but won't seem as crazy or full of dementia like the last two train wreck Presidents. In many people's minds, that's a win. >
  
  Californian here. Nobody wants Newsom to run. We all tolerate him as governor, but NOBODY wants him as president.
  Sit down, Newsom. >
  
  Mitt Romney would probably be best for the country, but Paul Ryan could beat almost any democrats. >
  
  I don't know if it'll happen in 2024 but I don't think we've seen the last of Paul Ryan on the national stage, he was one of the first Republicans to see the rot Trump was injecting into the party and ducked out of Congress and has remained (fairly) quiet ever since. >
  
  The only way a republican wins nationally is with zero connection to the embarrassment that was Donald trump. >
  
  Nonsense.  Trump himself could win again nationally. >
  
  Ha!! 
  Trump BARELY won against Hillary Clinton, who was the weakest candidate ever with 30 years of crazy conspiracy theories baked in and with the media constantly saying “no need to vote for I likable @$$ Hillary., he can’t win anyway.” Then lost to Biden, the second weakest democrat… and not one person without the last name Biden voted for Biden.. they all voted against trump. >
  
  Is there something in your comment that discredits mine?  If so, I can't find it. >
  
  Yea the whole comment.. 
  Trump barely beat the weakest of canidates and lost to the second weakest.. trump getting the nomination would be gift to democrats. >
  
  Unless Trump barely beats the second weakest of candidates >
  
  Trump couldn’t beat Biden and not one person voted for Biden because of Biden. >
  
  Trump won in 2016 and lost in 2000 and 2020
  Biden won in 2020 and lost in 1988 and 2008
  To think either one of them couldn't lose for the 3rd time in 2024 is foolhardy. >
  
  He had been a California governor and un-ironically the head of a labor union. >
  
  SAG isn't really a typical labor union.