comment: >
  
  If Trump’s campaign indeed fizzles out and DeSanris doesn’t run, my guess is Pence and Youngkin become the favorites. 
  Pence is a traitor to much of the MAGAs for certifying the 2020 election, but he remains on good terms with other branches of the party (Religious Right especially) and before the 2020 election would’ve been the natural successor to Trumpism.
  Youngkin defeated an incumbent in a state that had moved more and more towards Democrats, and his current approval ratings of 50 something percent suggests he can win over left-leaning suburbs by appearing non-Trumpian, while still being a right wing culture warrior. However, it should be noted that the state’s GOP elders had to select him, and he wasn’t the winner of a primary. He won’t challenge Trump as long as Trump remains viable.
context: Considering Nikki Haley has all but confirmed a 2024 run, I'll submit her name as my answer to the prompt. >
  
  Honestly even if Trump and DeSantis don't run, I don't think she'd have that great of a shot. She has establishment support but that's about it >
  
  She’s the GOP’s equivalent of Kamala, has the CV and the beltway loves them but no traction with rank and file voters. >
  
  She's worse.  At least Kamala was a sitting Senator from the largest state.  Haley's been unemployed for years. >
  
  But Haley is about 3,000 times smarter than Kamala. >
  
  I can't imagine what you'd be basing that claim on. Kamala Harris was a Senator and before that an Attorney General. >
  
  So what. That doesn't mean she's smart.  Haley is far more articulate and can actually speak logically. Harris struggles almost every time she opens her mouth. This isn't a big secret. >
  
  I don't know what you're hearing that makes you think Haley is "far more articulate", and what she says is typical "moderate" GOP bullshit. But Kamala's actual career is definitely better evidence of her intelligence than whatever impression you might have gotten from her public speaking. >
  
  If you want to convince me that your opinions are widely held, linking to some shitty conservative blog is probably not the way to do it.
  So Kamala Harris is bad at public speaking. That's not really strong evidence either way re: her intelligence or competence at actual governing or legislation. Harris's actual career dwarfs Haley's. She's the sitting VPOTUS, a former Senator, and a former Attorney General. What's Haley done since leaving the governorship? Serve as an ambassador to the UN? That's a job that's known for being a spoils system gig with no real qualifications needed, and she served under the notoriously corrupt and incompetent Trump administration.
  Having once been governor and getting a job from the guy known for appointing cronies and stooges isn't that impressive. I haven't heard anything substantive from her in terms of rhetoric or platform. The only unusual thing about her is that she's non-white and a woman, which means the MAGAts will never support her in a national race no matter what she changes her name to. That she doesn't seem to have realized this reflects rather poorly on her skills as a politician. Kamala at least knows her own party. >
  
  Brian Kemp and Glenn Youngkin are the next tier down from Trump and DeSantis. Youngkin is already putting a campaign together because he’s termed out in VA. Kemp has crossover appeal (there were a lot of Kemp/Warnock voters in GA last year), but he probably won’t run unless Trump and DeSantis stumble. >
  
  I’d definitely put Youngkin in the next tier below Trump and DeSantis. His woke bashing politics in VA will play well with the GOP base plus his ability to have won an election in a blue state and stay on message will mean he also has an “electability” argument and can come across as a competent adult who Republicans aren’t ashamed to support. He has enough political experience that he doesn’t seem entirely unqualified while not enough political history to avoid being tied to unpopular votes or be seen as part of the machine. The downside is that if he can’t win in 2024 he probably doesn’t have too much future as I doubt he could win statewide in VA again. >
  
  VA governors can only do a single consecutive term, so he'd have to go run for Senate. I feel as though Edwards and Kaine would mop the floor with him - they were both popular governors and remain popular now. >
  
  
  Edwards
  
  You mean Warner? >
  
  Yeah, I was high when I wrote that. >
  
  Excluding DeSantis and Trump - I see the next 3 in line as Glenn Youngkin, Nikki Haley, and  Mike Pompeo.  And it's possible Haley would be the VP pick. >
  
  Where the fuck is the constituency for Pompeo? Guy's a self-serious dimwit that nobody serious actually takes seriously, but he's got no record of anything the MAGA nuts are interested in, he's regularly in the low single figures in Republican voter polls, he's about as charismatic as Pence, I just don't get it. What's his lane? >
  
  Running to be the Republican nominee in 1988 >
  
  Mike Pence would still go for it Id guess, and he may win with a fickle coalition of evangelicals and neocons. But that's a very big may. Honestly, that's kind of unpredictably who would challenge Trump - in fact, your premise is hard to wrap your head around since DeSantis is the only one I see beating Trump in the primaries. 
  I know many in the beltway talked about Tim Scott aswell. >
  
  The MAGA crowd has already turned on Pence for his actions on Jan. 6th, he can give it a go but his goose is cooked. >
  
  His action of not dying? >
  
  Trumpets see Pence as a full on traitor for certifying the election >
  
  I did a cross country roadtrip following the 2020 election and the amount of Trump-Pence signs where Pence had been scratched out or painted over was pretty astonishing. Pence isn’t loved in Indiana and his national career is over. He’s also just the epitome of a milquetoast personality and that doesn’t seem to be what’s driving the GOP base these days. >
  
  Yeah I believe Pence is ranking 3rd in primary straw polls in his own state. Dude is done.