comment: >
  
  That’s precisely why I’d expect such simple draft-dodging to fail. The country where I was born has mandatory military service, and I certainly wouldn’t be able to avoid it — the whole state bureaucracy would grind to a halt for me. No driver’s license, no bank account, no passport, no job… ordinary city life would become impossible.
  The guy interviewed in this article is an extreme example, in that he moved out of the city… but he still retains his IT job. Presumably he is still getting paid? He is still paying for his Internet? He is transferring his salary to his wife, so she can buy food and pay for fuel?
  Why is the Russian state (which, as you say, is very bureaucratic) unable to intervene and lock him out of the system?
context: New post can be found here >
  
  Excellent. >
  
  "putin's war" >
  
  Rusky mir >
  
  I mean, technically it did show how far Russia had come since the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991. It turns out: not very far. >
  
  I would argue that it went quite a distance downhill... >
  
  I finally googled it:
  "BMP" stands for “Boyevaya Mashina Pekhoty”, Russian for infantry fighting vehicle. >
  
  “Military and absolutist regimes are undoubtedly well fitted to get the jump on an unsuspecting or unprepared enemy; but the history of modern warfare proves that they cannot win over representative governments in the long run, provided that people behind those governments have the heart to sustain initial punishment, and both the will and the resources to fight back.” ~ Samuel Eliot Morison >
  
  Yep Morison is a great historian.
  There is a reason why Authoritarian governments always fail. The lies become a house of cards that is destined to fall.
  Also, authoritarian governments cannot manage a middle class.
  The middle class is what makes democracies strong. Not the rich. Not the poor. The middle class have the ability to make changes and the desire that make them. The rich don’t want change. The poor don’t have the ability.
  A country like Russia that does not have a middle class is always destined to fail.
  In Russia’s case this failure is going to be quite spectacular. 🍿 >
  
  Russia does have a middle class though >
  
  Not like in democracies.
  Russia has the greatest disparity of wealth in the word. In a country of 140 million people about 9000 people have over 90% of the assets.
  The middle class is virtually non-existent outside Moscow and PSB.
  Where I am from, Australia, we have the highest median wealth in the world - about $340k USD.
  I hate to think what Russia’s median wealth is.
  As a rough guess, it might be 2K USD, but I’m probably overestimating. >
  
  I checked and it's about 7k. I'm not sure how that's even possible, since I assume wealth should also include your home's value. >
  
  What would they defend? The conscripts they couldnt care less about?. >
  
  its for show so the people of moscow believe they are in danger so the coming mobilization go down a bit easier >
  
  If they are mobilizing in moscow then russia is truly done for. >
  
  It would be great way for russia to plant spies or instigators. Makes sense. >
  
  And anyone resolved to flee mobilization out of any sort of sense of consciousness would have already seen this coming and done so by now. The next wave are more likely to be people who've been drinking Putin's kool-aid up until the point where they have to participate. They'll likely continue drinking that kool-aid no matter where they end up.
  Not against vetting out the good people still caught up in that mix for whatever reason but that's a huge and largely untenable operation so as a blanket policy this is reasonable and expected. >
  
  White House: Here are 323.912 individual pieces of evidence as proof of your war crimes.
  Wagner: They must be fake. I saw 2 Ukrainians doing war crimes too. What about USA in Iraq? >
  
  Whatabout requires you admit to the accusation in the first place. >
  
  A lot of people miss this fact, and keep consuming “news” that includes whataboutism. >
  
  Whoa, lots of hardware today. Wonder where? >
  
  German Tank Megathread Day 33 >
  
  If I had a dollar everytime a German Tank gets mentioned lately, I could send the tanks myself >
  
  WHY ARE U NOT SENDING TANKS DO U HATE UKRAINE!?
  (/s) >
  
  They need to send at least two or Scholz will take refuge in the fact that he stipulated “Abrams tankS” (plural) >
  
  Send a dozen, who gives a fuck. The US has more than what they need/want. >
  
  Still no official word on the explosion yesterday in Berdyansk.
  However:
  
  . . . pro-Ukrainian locals inform us that the cause of yesterday's explosion was a strong ‘arrival’ at the base of Russian invaders.
  . . . a missile landed on the invaders in the RTS area.^1 There were supposedly enemy vehicles and soldiers here.
  The locals took a video from the scene, which shows a huge crater, apparently left after a missile hit.
  
  
  ^(^1) ^(RTS is an old Soviet or pre-soviet term, from the collective farming days, something like “Repairs & Technical Station,” but it would be a whole neighborhood, iirc.) >
  
  actual news:
  Italy will send the SAMP/T missile system to Ukraine, Italy's foreign minister says >
  
  
  technological superiority of Russian weapons
  
  If anyone had still any doubts they aren't trolling and bullshitting, that is your moneyquote. >
  
  Was reading up a bit on Wagner Group and what kind of loonies are members of it.
  There is the Rusich, a neo-nazi regiment of it, headed by some guy called Alexey Milchakov. From Wikipedia: Milchakov first came to public attention after he filmed himself torturing and decapitating a puppy in 2011, posting the footage online. A petition calling to hold him accountable was supported by more than 5500 people. At the same time animal rights activists addressed FC Zenit fans in order for them to give an assessment to Milchakov's actions. In his VK page he also called for killing of homeless people, puppies and children.
  And in their eyes, they are supposed to be the "defenders of common sense", fighters against "nazi Ukrainians" and the "sodomist and crazy West". Despicable. >
  
  You got to figure any killer for hire is going to be sick in the head. >
  
  So Russia tried to pull what Ukraine did in the Kharkiv offensive, which is to start a punishing offensive in one section of the country and then secretly launch a second one, taking advantage of all attention and resources being focused on the first one. 
  While Ukraine could pull it off by virtue of having more, better equipped soldiers on hand and whittling down the Russians to the point where they didn’t have enough troops to defend the whole line, Russia couldn’t. 
  Ukraine has a fair amount of well-trained and armed troops. Ukraine isn’t shuffling troops around and only able to focus on one location. Heck, Ukraine may even be able to pull off another Kharkiv offensive because again Russia can only make progress by pulling most of their resources to one small area and pushing. 
  Russia may have taken Soledar and be about to take Bakhmut, but it is at the expense of most of the troops they raised in the fall, putting Russia back into the same situation as they were in back in late August. If the ground cooperates, Ukraine could make significant progress quickly now that Russia has wasted its strength. This was Ukraine’s goal. Set up a place to bleed the Russia strength at minimal cost to their own. >
  
  Ukraine has the Eye of Sauron based in Northern Virginia. Little chance of such things working >
  
  I could listen/read these calls all day! >
  
  
  The USA will support the transfer of F-16 fighter jets by allies to Ukraine - the American ambassador to the OSCE. Michael Carpenter, confirmed that Washington will agree with the idea of partners to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
  
  I just noticed this from 4 hours ago on the live thread. Why isn't this today's main talking point? >
  
  anyway if Ukraine loses we will look silly with our jets and tanks doing nothing.
  Somehow either Russia win or someone steps up and says the joke is over now. >
  
  
  Somehow either Russia win
  
  I think I've got a better chance of winning the lottery. >
  
  I’m curious about the logistics of the mobilization.
  Why is it necessary to personally hand over a slip of paper? From various interviews, I gather that a man can indefinitely postpone his recruitment if he can somehow avoid the “ceremony” of personally receiving the paper. Why does that work? Doesn’t the government have a central register of men who have been selected? >
  
  Russia is a very  bureaucratic  country, like calling the war "special operation" makes what Putin could and couldn't do innl regards with recruits.