comment: >
  
  Luka got within about a stone's throw of getting Gaddafi'd not that long ago.  Despite his eventual brutal crackdown, I suspect this may have put the fear of God into him a bit and now he just wants to live in his palace and not rock the boat too much.
context: Last post >
  
  Surovikin is a competent commander. respect for Putin's role in Russia and the war has been tainted since he took over, due to the contrast. this is a move to preemptively dethrone Surovikin. >
  
  Slava Ukraini! >
  
  Putin is always saying: 
  “I have to return some videotapes” >
  
  Losing Soledar was unfortunate, but the heavily urbanized Donbas makes it possible to set up a good defensive line not too far behind the previous front. 
  All-in-all, yesterday’s more significant news was the commitment of sending western MBTs. The defenders of Soledar today will be avenged by the Ukrainian counteroffensives of tomorrow, in which these western weapon systems will be decisively utilized against the Russians. >
  
  Soledar isn't confirmed lost yet. The video is specifically talking about the retreat from the Western part of town. There are no official or reliable unofficial UA accounts that claim the entire town has been abandoned (which is likely a prudent thing to do). >
  
  Hopefully Wagner lost a ton of troops taking Soledar. >
  
  It is now time to once again say “fuck putler” >
  
  Furthermore, I am of the opinion that Putin must be defenestrated. >
  
  Day CCCXXIII, Part I. Thread CDLXIV. >
  
  Slava Ukraini !!!
  Fuck Putin >
  
  God I hope our timeline eventually leads to Navalny in charge over there…🙏
  Edit:What’s with the downvotes? Navalny is against a war. >
  
  He whole heartedly supported the Crimea annexation, he is just the lesser of 2 evils I'm afraid. >
  
  He was acting as a politician trying to win political support from a public that strongly supported the annexation.  I wouldn't hold that against him.  Especially since it's likely to be a moot point if he ever gets any power. >
  
  so he's full of shit? got it. >
  
  Are there any estimates on the number of Americans fighting for Wagner? There has to be some shitheads out there doing it. >
  
  i dont think so, not sure they pay enough TBH. we have other options for contractor work. >
  
  Next month? So won't happen this month >
  
  As was explained last year when the sanctions were first implemented and adjusted later on in the year: immediately cutting off everything is a logistical nightmare for the world. You have to give time for people to establish new trading routes and agreements.
  This morning they said Russia was losing something like 170m/day and the math was done on how much they'd lose by changing specific things, which I imagine is what's being planned out now. >
  
  BADA BOOM! >
  
  Construction workers who’ve come from Russia or Crimea to Mariupol to “rebuild,” have instead been sent to the front, Bakhmut, 0629 reported yesterday. 
  Similarly, Verashuk has just today warned that Russia will mobilize the men remaining in Melitopol. >
  
  
  Construction workers who’ve come from Russia or Crimea to Mariupol to “rebuild,” have instead been sent to the front, Bakhmut, 0629 reported yesterday.
  
  This is the most Russian thing I've ever heard. 
  Its like a dark comedy >
  
  Yeah one Russian wife, back in Crimea, is raising hell about it.  Her husband was promised a large wage for construction work in Mariupol, instead she gets word he’s been injured in Bakhmut.  Can’t get disability pension “bc he’s construction, not military.” But also, can’t get that construction wage, bc didn’t do the work, bc sent elsewhere.
  Why do Russians trust their government? >
  
  Woah hold on there no Russian has ever trusted his or her government ever. Let’s not be too naive here lol >
  
  Yet they comply to whatever the government wants of them. Every single time. 
  Those goddamn lemmings. >
  
  As some context. In the US and UK we don’t have a living memory of an autocratic government that can and did take millions of its own people and gulag/mock trial and execute or just starve them. We don’t fear our governments. Europe has a healthier understanding of what a government like that can do but the key thing is they overcame it. Russia never really did. 
  In Russia the atrocities committed against the people by their own government are still well remembered, it would certainly frame your feelings if you had lived through a similar regime. The Stalinist purges are only seventy to eighty years ago and events like that leave a lasting legacy on a countries consciousness. Unlike with the Nazis no one was ever really held to account for the Russian atrocities. If I lived there I would be a lot more circumspect about voicing my displeasure. By the time you’re at the front and actually facing death it’s too late to complain. >
  
  
  If I lived there I would be a lot more circumspect about voicing my displeasure. By the time you’re at the front and actually facing death it’s too late to complain.
  
  But the thing is there's no difference between a russian living in Europe/overseas and a russian living in russia. They are complacent and passive towards their regime regardless of their place of stay. >
  
  That’s touching. I watched the video as well. The insight on why some people are staying in Bakhmut made sense, but was still difficult for me to hear. I get that some people don’t have the ability to leave, but just feel nervous for them. So with that, it’s great that this doctor continues to stay. It’s dangerous, but I respect it. >
  
  He really doesnt give a shit. He just needs his public to a) think he gives a shit and b) know it is someone else's fault. >
  
  And oh he is such a "strong" and "big" leader putting these people in their place... 
  What a pathetic actor and fool he is. Maybe he put this out because the whole putin is a "little man" thing. >
  
  If it turns out that Russia can't take and hold it after all of this, I really don't know what Putin's next move will be. >
  
  There is talk that this is Prigozhin's game. He promised to deliver Soledar and if he will be succesful, it will mean more power points to him. Apparently there is quite some infighting between the army, Wagner, Kremlin factions, some say the command changes are related to this too.
  If he is succesful, Wagner will probably be expected to repeat the performance at Bakhmut too. They apparently have run out of cannon fodder at Soledar so in these conditions Bakhmut does not seem to be possible unless they get 30 to 50000 meat sacks. >
  
  My fear is that their BS propaganda machine is so powerful around the world that they can actually find cannon fodder outside of Russia and expend it in human wave attacks without inflicting losses to Russian people. >
  
  No way can they get meaningful numbers of people from outside Russia. >
  
  I hope you are correct. So many people use aggressive rhetoric portraying western reaction to the war in Ukraine as neo colonialism, imperialism, hypocrisy and so on, and there's so much resentment everywhere in the world that I think it doesn't take that much for Wagner thugs to recruit cheap mercenaries abroad. >
  
  Lets go Baerbock, I had zero faith in her as foreign minister, but she is miraculously doing good out there >
  
  That’s a jab at the Swiss, isn’t it? >
  
  I don't think so, it seems that he expects the issue to be genuinely controversial within the German government. >
  
  Killed by Wagner terrorists probably. >
  
  Well, they are aid workers providing aid to civilians, so essentially targets for russian orks. >
  
  Haha, and people say Germans don't have any sense of humor >
  
  When beer is involved, we don't joke around.
  How else would you transport beer to remote areas? >
  
  Germany is one of the few places in the world where there are beer pipelines. For example the stadium where Schalke 04 plays has a pipeline from a nearby brewery, so fans can get it fresh from the tap.
  Serious business indeed. >
  
  I wonder when the western tanks show up (Challenger/Leopards) the fresh conscripts are really going to think they're fighting NATO units. But then I figured those poor conscripts probably have no idea what a NATO tank looks like in the first place so probably won't think much of it. >
  
  
  
  They already think that because that's what they've been told.  
  
  
  You don't use tanks vs infantry. >
  
  
  You don't use tanks vs infantry
  
  You do. Leo 2s have ability to use programmable ammunition. There are certain types of ammunition specifically designed for anti-infantry operations. They explode above the ground and spread shrapnel. >
  
  LiveUaMap shows Russian Shelling of Kremnina - Does this mean the UAF have reached the town? >
  
  Ukrainians have shelled Kremina before, it has been pretty close to the frontline for a while. >
  
  I thought it was showing Russian shelling, could be my bad. The map also shows clashes inside the city, but I’m not sure how accurate the map is. >
  
  It is showing Russians doing probing attacks, seems they have increased activity a bit since 76th VDV has reinforced Kremina. In any case, recon action is pretty common for both sides at that part of the front. >
  
  Only 47 billion? Elon musk lost 4x that last year... >
  
  Elon never had that, it's paper money based on his perceived value. The 47 billion is actual resources that are either wasted or underpaid. >
  
  Not that it matters much but what is going on with Putin's face? It's either steroids for a medical condition or bad Botox or a body (face?) double. >
  
  There's been rumors swirling for several months that he's on steroid treatment for some manner of (possibly) late-stage cancer. Regardless of how true that may or not be, he certainly looks puffier as of late. >
  
  Got any recent pics? I can only find old ones. >
  
  Just a little light call for genocide with your lunch break. Normal country things. >
  
  Normal TERRORIST country things. >
  
  A small town in exchange for a large town at a strategic crossroad. All sacrifice is tragic but it will not be in vain if they can take Kreminna. >
  
  Ukrainians are still nowhere close to attacking Kreminna. They need to secure the northern approach to the city first, where they are still quite far away from. >
  
  They're basically at the gates in the South and have fire control on all other sides except the East. They don't necessarily need to take the North. >
  
  It would be no different than Russian head on assault on Bakhmut. Unless they secure the northern flank, it would be a pointless assault that will cost many lives. >
  
  Unpopular opinion: With a decent amount of luck the war will end with the 1991 borders, or perhaps minus Crimea, and with some reparations in the form of appropriated frozen Russian capital.
  Some Russian officers captured on the battlefield will be sentenced, but there won't be a Nuremberg style trial. Russia will stay as nasty as they are, just in a defeated and weakened state. The same faces we know so well will rant and threaten day in day out in the media, but we'll eventually stop listening. >
  
  Russia will collapse, its economy functioned primarily on the export of oil and gas with their primary (EU) market now gone. It won't be possible to export the same volumes to Asia. On top of that China and India are buying Russian oil and gas at a big discount. Add to that expulsion of capital from Russia, huge brain drain, military losses and natural reduction of a population (as approximately -1 mln Russians per year), low birth rates. Russia becomes a failed state within a span of 10-15 years, maybe even less. Civil war is highly likely with Northern Causausian Regions trying to breakaway. All this will likely occur following Putin's death. >
  
  Agreed. If anything this whole war was their last chance to land grab for a minimum of 30-40 years. Since it has been going so horribly unwell (for them) we're now looking at 50-70 years minimum before Russia could even remotely return to a position of any true relevance.
  This assumes their next generation (10-15 years of age right now) starts having lots of children between 2025 and 2040, while they struggle to maintain or even survive. And then those children have to grow up in a restructured, specialized economy that has access to global trade, putting their productive years and power into use around 2060+ >
  
  
  Recruitment from prisons is now much harder for Wagner, due to news of the massive losses in Ukraine getting back to penal colonies in Russia. A source tells VChK-OGPU that "the flow of 'newcomers' to the private military companies has thinned considerably.
  "Those who were ready to go straight away have almost all been taken. And now there is persistent talk in the prisons about the PMCs as 'pure meat and total losses'."/end
  
  Mass mobilization seems to be the next logical step >
  
  There's only so much prisoners that are motivated enough to risk likely death in human wave assaults. At some point the flow depletes, even if they're so high on propaganda that they don't receive news of high losses. >
  
  Nah, they are prisoners.  At the end of the day Russia can make conditions in the prison worse and worse until fighting and dieing seems attractive.  
  The real problem is that tortured and starved men without training have no place on the modern battlefield.  A trained defensive force with modern weapons will simply slaughter the conscripts. >
  
  I guess that the plan for Russia now is to get more and more totalitarian and find excuses to put more people in prisons so that they're funnelled into the hands of Prigozhin to be used as cannon fodder. >
  
  Weird. Maybe they want to avoid giving Lukashenko any ammunition to stir up resentment.
  AFAIK the Belarusian public is not on board with him and Putin.