>

Is it really that insane to expect China to experience crises the same way that literally every other country in world history has?
i am not sure i agree with your trickle-down philosophy. it has never worked in the west .. it's a mirage that the elite have foisted on the plebs. it serves to more quickly widen the gap between rich and poor .. and ultimately will erode democracy as the richest gain more power .. tending to push india into a corporatocracy like the west.
your point re obedience in china is valid. china is just one person: xi. he doesn't want diversity .. which ultimately will not stand the test in time. and besides, he won't be at the helm forever (if only bc nobody lives forever), and his successor probably won't be as skilled at suppressing the masses. >


china is just one person: xi

There are 1.4 billion humans in China, maybe let's tone down the casual dehumanization of non-western people >

i wasn't making a statement about non-western people. it was an observation about the government of china .. i.e. xi .. which also happens to be quite different to most of the rest of the world, including other asian nations. 
and for that matter, i wasn't even making a statement about the rest of the 1.4B .. only about its autocratic leader >

That's still an ignorant outsider's perspective. You should read up on the Politburo Committee to get a better idea. >


with Russia's population so small, is there a time when they will reasonably be considered a second rate power?

In military terms the Soviet Union was once a significant power on par with Europe as a whole but Russia has never been equal to that.  Since the collapse of the USSR they've been a corrupt hell hole broadly propper up by oil sales to Europe that happened to inherent a vast amount of military equipment.  But decades have rolled by without investment, maintainence and with widespread corruption and apathy so their arsenal lost much of its power.
These days Russia ranks alongside France or the UK on their own in terms of force projection and now they've blown all their armour and artillary up in Ukraine they've lost their trump card of heavy armour for a land war.
In economic terms Russia is nothing, its smaller than some US states or European countries and in competition terms it would need to take on their compined might.  It does provide food, fertiliser, energy and minerals etc so it will be a pain to switch over to alternatives. >

Don't the UK and France have better force projection than Russia? Russia currently doesn't even have a single active aircraft carrier. >

Sure, but it isn't exactly clear how the UK navy vs the Russian navy would go.
It doesn't really matter of course, as it would be all of NATO vs Russia and that's a very quick fight. >



China is heading not only to a demographic crisis, but a hidden debt crisis from all its book cooking. Tons of projects that don't turn out the inflow of cash expected and a tax base that frequently doesn't file anything. 


India definitely has the potential to seize the opportunity to replace China as a dominant power. Their corporations have been doing very well recently. 


Russia bungling their invasion of Ukraine has defanged them. They no longer appear to be polished manipulators or rational tacticians. Russia really should have balkanized further than it did, and this may be a catalyst.