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I disagree. I think Manchin would lose before Brown does. Polling came out for Senators from the last year recently, and Manchin’s underwater by about 12 points (after being up 15, but his support for the Inflation Reduction Act changed that). Brown is moderately popular, and Ohio has been a swing state until quite recently as well.
If the GOP tries to touch social security they will certainly keep it. They may still if the GOP primaries play out the way they have. >

Don’t forget if the GOP keeps trying to ban abortion and it was literally the first thing they did as soon as Kevin became speaker >

This would be a big issue in a midterm but not a presidential election year. >

Why? Total abortion bans or 6-week abortion bans that no one wants aren’t going away anytime soon barring courts striking those laws down. Why would they die down as an issue? >

I doubt it just off the map but I don't think it'll be as big a bloodbath as people seem to automatically assume. No matter how much many seem to have a desire and hope Republicans "moderate" or come to the middle, the truth is Republicans are doing a very poor job of making themselves electorable to the median public (i.e. going overboard on social conservative stances that no one but their fringe, very religious base wants) and it'll catch up to them fully at some point.
I think Republicans will likely win control of the Senate, but it'll be 51-49 or at most 52-48 margin. Like they'll for sure win West Virginia and likely at least one of Ohio and Montana, but I would not rule out Brown and/or Tester holding on. Both are incredibly strong incumbents in red states, and Biden outperforming typical trends in Ohio to only lose by 6 or so would be enough for Brown to hold on. Ditto for Tester with differing margins. 
Pennsylvania (Casey), Wisconsin (Baldwin), Michigan (Stabenow but she is retiring though Dems have a strong bench there), Minnesota (Klobuchar), Virginia (Kaine) I can't see Republicans winning. Arizona (Sinema but Gallego will challenge for Democrats) Republicans can flip in a perfect world, but people don't realize how bat-shit the Arizona Republicans have become and how many right-leaning moderates have turned Democrats there. They are more likely to nominate a unpalatable candidate like a Kari Lake over a Doug Ducey, and if they do that, they'll lose. 
Meanwhile, I think we're looking ripe for Democrats to win control of the House again and take a bigger majority than what they had post-2020. Nothing the Republicans in the House are doing, from their sham of a leadership election to openly trashing moderating on social stances like on abortion will help them in House races come 2024. They've also gerrymandered themselves to the fullest. >

I agree with this assessment. Maybe it’s because I’m tired of doom and gloom headlines (plus Dems proved that we can beat the typical narratives) but at the very least we’ll lose Joe Manchin’s seat but only if he doesn’t run again. 
I think Joe Manchin is annoying as hell, but, for some reason his methods work in his state and he manages to win in a Trump 40+ state. Which is why I’m not as annoyed with him as I am with Kirsten Sinema because it seems like everyone in her state hates her 
People fucking hate the modern GOP and are even getting tired of Trump’s bullshit. 2 years of Republican nonsense in the House won’t help it. >

I think that the moment Sinema left the Democratic Party, senate control in 2024 shifted to the GOP. AZ will go to the GOP as Sinema will siphon enough votes from the Democrats. That means that Dems cannot afford to lose any more seats . That is unlikely as they will lose at least one more seat, probably Ohio.