>

Ahhh 11 comments late… still… Fuck Putin and his collaborators
Band together and depose your leadership. You've done it in the past. >

This is how Ukraine did it. They bled and died and fought at Euromaiden, to kick Yanukovych out. Now they're still fighting. 
Only Russians can save Russia. Overthrow Putin. >

Yanukovych's grip on power was not a fraction of Putin's though, he's got a hundreds thousand strong private security army and twenty years of build-up against any kind of uprising. It would take a miracle. >

From 24.02.2022 to 04.01.2023 (Day 315) estimated Russian losses so far (change since previous day):
108910 (+720) Personnel
3038 (+2) Tanks
6106 (+6) Armored Personnel Vehicles
2039 (+6) Artillery Systems
424 (+0) MLRS
215 (+1) Anti-aircraft Warfare Systems
283 (+0) Aircraft
270 (+0) Helicopters
1842 (+3) UAV operational-tactical level
723 (+0) Missiles
16 (+0) Warships / Boats
4745 (+10) Other vehicles
181 (+0) Special Equipment >

The personnel losses are very constant between 700 and 800 this week, even though we know there have been massive casualty accidents in the beginning of this week. It seems to me the official statistics delay and smooth out the numbers to not give away operational information. >


More than a million Russians have called, texted or visited the website of a Ukrainian hotline that allows them to surrender, with many seeking a way to avoid going to war, since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, according to the hotline.

Jesus. I'd bet the FSB would just love to have that list.  Not sure they have enough room in the Gulags. The ones who went through with it and surrendered are going to be the lucky ones. Maybe they can claim asylum. >

When the cold snap begins this weekend the mobiks cannot remain outside or in unheated housing without succumbing to hypotermia very fast.
My chairforce general assessment of the situation is that RU will not be able to scatter all of their mobiks into many heated spaces over a large area but will continue to house them tightly packed in a small area especially during the night.
We will find out soon enough if I was correct. >

Do Ukraine have heat detecting abilities? holy shit if they do... >

They have drones with infra-red cameras I think >

Their domestic tanks have thermals >

Explosions in Sevastopol

On Wednesday, January 4, explosions rang out in the temporarily occupied Sevastopol in Crimea, according to local media.
Local residents heard powerful explosions in different areas of the city. In particular, in the area of ​​Fruktovoy and Soldatsky.
The explosions in Sevastopol were also confirmed by Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol. According to him, anti-aircraft fire in the occupied city went off at least twice.



Earlier: Simferopol residents posted on social networks about the sounds of explosions near the Belbek airport, and assume that the sounds of explosions were related to the operation of Russian air defense systems. The representatives of the occupation "authority" did not comment on this information.


Other reported Crimean places that claimed attacks:
Jankoy (aka Dzhankoi), in northwest Crimea, anti-aircraft was working, as seen in posted video
Fruktovoy (near the Belbek airfield), one mass explosion, “thundering so loud that windows shook”
And a third location—“area of ​​the air base of the settlement of Gvardeyskoye”—although Fakty reports it as being Soldatsky >

Wow.  I remember people on here claiming that Ukraine wouldn't even try to retake Crimea.  It looks inevitable now.
Lol @ putin. >

Makiivka locals tell TSN the “hundreds” estimate is correct.


"People in the city say that at least 300 soldiers were killed. This can be confirmed by the fact that the explosion was very powerful. The city shuddered at that moment. My house too, although it is located some 15 kilometers from the school where the explosion took place. After this explosion we see that Russians are housed in the cultural centers of the city's residential areas, the number of roadblocks has increased," one of the residents of the occupied Makiivka shared his observations.

A military expert, a native of Makiivka, Roman Svitan, reported approximately this number of dead in a comment for TSN.

"A battalion drove there, and it consisted of 500-600 people with equipment, about 300-400 died," Roman Svitan told us. “A denser front, but this battalion had no strategic importance for the front. Most likely, they were planned to be sent to the second front line. This incident, this attack showed magic—they only arrived in Makiivka about a week ago. What will change after that? They will be placed in in the houses of the private sector, in the houses of Makiivka residents."

Another military expert, Oleksandr Kovalenko, says that similar strikes on objects with occupiers are carried out regularly and will continue.

"This strike is a unique case," says Kovalenko. "In fact, a battalion tactical group was destroyed in a matter of minutes. The last time such a strike was inflicted on the occupiers was when they forced their way into Siversky Donets. Such strikes will continue. It is difficult to understand the logic of the Russian the command that deployed such a concentration of personnel, ammunition, equipment. The deployment of personnel in Makiivka is a consequence of the fiasco of the offensive operation in the direction of Avdiivka and Bakhmut. They are concentrating their forces to continue offensive actions." >

Some Russian vocabulary for y’all in here.
The right term for situations like this is “pizdets.” >

The truck being carried only has 8, according to posts in that thread the S-400 should have 10. >

Should only get cheaper as routes are stabilized and agreements solidified. >

And the winter was very very mild so far. >

What winter? >

Saw a claim over on another subreddit that a decree was signed in Russia to force male debtors to sign mobilization orders if they go into a bank, under threat of being arrested. This is not long after Russia literally barred debtors from leaving the country so it tracks pretty well. Also comes after the Ukrainian government openly warning Russians to get out while they can, knowing that another wave of mobilization is coming.
Putin will throw away every Russian life he can to cling onto power, he gives no fucks about them. >

Sadly the Russians stilll support the war. 70% of the population by a recent independent poll. >

I really don't believe this anymore.
The % staying the same while they get absolutely fucked makes no sense whatsoever to me >

It’s the russian way of life. But granted, this is again the “then it got worse” stage. >

Will it have Putin himself leading the charge, riding a white tiger, shirtless and showing his herculean muscles, Russian imperial flag in one hand and an AK in the other?
If so, I really hope they share it. >

"To ride a tiger" is a Chinese idiom that very aptly describes the situation he's in. >

There's also a western saying about having hold of a tiger by it's tail, with, I'm sure, the same intended meaning. Can't get off/can't turn loose, or the tiger eats you. >

Ironically, getting the UK out of the EU may have made things worse for them. The EU is always hamstrung by Hungary when trying to aid Ukraine, the UK isn't. They can send Ukraine whatever the fuck they want. >

The EU doesn't have a say in foreign policy, it's only really things like trade.   
If we were still in the EU we still would've sent the weapons, aid etc. In terms of security policy the UK has always been the most competent in Europe. Political and economic, not so much. >


In terms of security policy the UK has always been the most competent in Europe

well, maybe except the broken carrier that doesn't have planes >

They have planes.   
I've seen this weird thing said before from the nuttier left wing circles. And to my knowledge the damage to the right shaft is getting repaired to the one carrier that had its shaft break.   
EDIT: For those curious, this happens with everything. Here's when the Charles de Gaulle had to go into drydock when a propeller broke. 
Damage and accidents happen to everything, it's why the UK opted for two carriers because if we had this happen to one (if we only had one) then we'd be shafted. (pardon the pun) >

Tell me you are freaking out without telling me you are freaking out >

There's no panic among the troops. /s >

Oh cool, this will make the English envious of the honor we got there. >

He's too afraid to send it to England or the US, had to go to one of the few that still talk to him. >

More seriously, was there some info that this specific strike was done with a CESAR ? >

Only thing I can come up with on the spot is this article and articles that echo it from when it happened, where they speculate it was a 120 or 155mm, CESAR is 155. >

Russia needs to fucking go home, release all the abducted Ukrainians, and pay war reparations, and then fuck off, forever. >

Russia blames massive illicit cellphone usage by its troops for Ukraine strike.
5G kills >

World blames massive illicit invasion usage by Putin for Ukraine strike. >

So I'm seeing -15C for Donetsk this weekend
Time to bring out the old memes >

Russian trenchfoot incoming >

From the drone videos we've seen, most don't have functioning feet now anyway. >

Yeah, the second they moved into the residential areas the Ukrainian army knew instantly where they were. It doesn't matter where the troops are on Ukrainian soil, there's always some local who will tell the army. 
On this occasion they may get a reprieve from attacks because looks like they are now among civilians. Unless the UA can be even more pinpoint without endangering their people or the Russians do something stupid like evicting the surrounding locals from their own homes. >

Even among those that will eventually return home, how many will kill themselves either the fast way or drowning themselves in vodka, Russia's specialty even before the war >

Where is the death toll on that Russian blast now? It was 63, now 89? >

That's what the Russian MOD admits to, the actual number is almost certainly a lot higher. >

Yesterday it was 63 killed in Makiyivka and now it’s up to 89…who knows how many tomorrow >

Hard to count mincemeat. >

Oof >


The only possible way Russia can win a war is to [do something] that Russia doesn't have the logistical capacity to wage

In what sense is that a possible way that they can win, then?  Having logistical capacity is prerequisite for all warfare. >

They went in on bad intel, and have stayed in on bad leadership. >

Unless you consider that their major global goal is to damage NATO and the western economy as much as possible in hopes of political regime change saving them. Then continuing the war at all costs starts to at least seem like a strategy, even if it's a borderline suicidal one.
That's why it needs to be made clear that anyone with pro-Russia sentiments is a seriously dangerous bad faith actor in the western world.
Fortunately, I'm starting to truly believe Russia is running out of both time and options. They're much more likely to lose the war of attrition long before the west does. >

Boyars bad. Czar good. 
Putin never delivered bad news. In every tragedy, he would have some official deliver it, but he himself would never even comment on it, not that "journalists" allowed access to him would ask. Sometimes he would go on absentee, or vacation while the crisis passed. 
Putin is a true coward, the hero Russians deserve. >

The Ukrainian media are all re-posting a story that an independent investigative Russian outlet published today.  
The gist is
that RF Command ordered for the survivors of Makiivka to be sent to the front.  Their was an immediate outcry from all corners.  The MOD has backed down and now the survivors are simply being subjected to interrogations. >

The one saving grace of Russia not being completely cut off from the internet is that they get to share their own shit with themselves. >

Oh, this is one that has to be published outside the country, and is now forbidden and blocked inside Russia >

While not an update or a Twitter link, I hope everyone's day is going well! :-) >

Thanks for all you do >

Thanks for being a part of this great community! >

Pravda had this pic of the aftermath as well. Saying it was humanitarian storage.
Everything that was on fire looks like it came out of the roof. And those look like potable water bottles lined up on the floor. >

The Ukrainian defence minister recently said russia will declare martial law and announce another wave of mobilization around jan 5th. Is there any indication this is likely to happen soon? >

You can count the call from “soldiers widows” for the mass mobilization as a pretty robust indication that it is coming. >

The well known actors troupe? If they are calling for it well you know they’re getting paid / threatened >

Start sending Ukraine 500 Bradley IFVs now so they will have enough armor to launch a massive counteroffensive in Spring. >

I read that the USA has around 4500 Bradley and 500 in storage. Without actually knowing, it seems that the USA could spare a few for Ukraine. >

Is this in addition to the other “large” strikes? I’ve lost track of them at this point. Keep up the best defence Ukraine! >

This strike was on 31.12 or 1.01 >

DefMon says it happened on January 1. >

I like like to think that in his more lucid moments Putin is fully aware of how fucked he is. >

He seems lucid, just unable to unwilling to change course.
Definitely competent to stand trial cough cough >

I suspect there is mistake in translation (which should not appear after almost a year of this war). Original message was something like "there are 200s (killed) and 300s (wounded) but these number do not mean quantity, but codes for killed and wounded. Without specified quantity. >

Nope, Ukraine has been consistent in this estimate. Somehow it got less attention than the strike on Makiivka, but certainly comparable. >

Imagine gathering 100.000 people in a group. This is an insane amount of people - all dead, most leaving greiving family and friends - all fighting for a megalomaniac >

Russian soldier hangs himself after being stolen, beaten and raped by Kadyrovites >

It's so much easier when they just kill themselves. >

General Staff
—260 Russians killed in strikes in 4 Zaporizhzhia towns

"On January 2, the defeat of the enemy was confirmed in the areas of the settlements of Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Pology and Vasylivka of the Zaporizhzhya region: 2 ammunition depots, up to 10 units of military equipment of various types were destroyed, 2 locations of the occupiers were hit, up to 260 servicemen of the armed forces were eliminated and wounded forces of the Russian Federation". >

The article is different from the title. It doesn't say 260 killed.

up to 260 servicemen of the armed forces were eliminated and wounded >

Is there any analysis out there on how much of a problem the RF reinforcing their defensive positions (with trenches etc) is going to be? >

How about Perun?
Bakhmut & The Ukraine Trench War - fortifications, attrition, and lessons >

if folks like analysis, watch Perun... he picks a subject per video and does his research - warning - usually an hour long so set aside some time. >

i'd love a tl;dw summary on that one in particular. >

CONCLUSIONS >

SLAVA UKRAINI 🇺🇦
Слава Україні ❤️ >

Day CCCXV, Part I.  Thread CDLVI. >

Fuck putin >

No need to say fuck Putin, he is doing a great job of that to himself and his country