>

Shockingly when your CEO makes himself and your company radioactive to your primary customer base it's a problem. Who would have guessed?...
Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by Tesla. The company reported 405,278 total deliveries for the quarter and 1.31 million total deliveries for the year. The full year numbers represented a record for the Elon Musk-led automaker and growth of 40% in deliveries compared to 2021.
But according to a consensus of analysts’ estimates compiled by FactSet, as of Dec. 31, 2022, Wall Street was expecting Tesla to report around 427,000 deliveries for the final quarter of the year. Estimates updated in December, and included in the FactSet consensus, ranged from 409,000 to 433,000.

So the meat and potatoes is they basically came in 22,000 short of deliveries of expected deliveries. >

In December a load of Analysts expected them to come in low, and suggested a wide spread. They came in lower than that. >

They had to do markdowns due to the tax credits available in 2023.  Why would anyone buy in December when they could buy the same thing for cheaper a few weeks later?  Is anyone actually surprised? >

The weird part is that this is actually Tesla’s strongest quarter so far- they delivered 310,048 cars in Q1, 254,695 cars in Q2 and 343,830 in Q3. But Q2, Q3 and Q4 all fell short of expectations. >

To understand how massively overvalued they were / are as a company, they would have to sell 7x as many cars by 2035 as they do now to justify the valuation.  In other words, they would have to sell ~15% of the worlds cars to be at this valuation, which is down 75% from all time highs.
The entire price was based on Robo Taxi's by 2020 and the reality is they aren't in the top 5 as far as progress towards Fully Self Driving solutions.  They might not even be in the top 10, with the worst case scenario being their path to FSD isn't even viable.
BMW just sold 2x as many cars as Tesla this year and worth 6x less. >

Let me preface this by saying I am not a fan of Musk or a Tesla fan, but does this take into account their Solar panel/roof and powerwall business?
I just did a small search and found:
According to the company, Tesla Energy revenues increased 38.6% year-over-year to $1.117 billion (5.2% of the total revenues), while the cost of revenues stands at $1.013 billion.
Actually I guess that isn't a whole lot of profit for that business, but is there enough potential there to affect valuation? >

Tesla is valued high because it was seeing as a software company who makes cars and other small things, not a car company who makes cars with software and other things. All other car companies can get their battery business up to date and fast considering a lot of governments around the world passed laws to outlaw ICE; even if they can't build nice batteries themselves, they can just setup shop for a company who can do it. Software on the other hand is hard and can't easily be replicated  and not every car manufacturer is able to reach the same level. >

I never understood why Tesla was seen as a software company though. What software do they sell? And they do not have the margins that true software companies have (e.g. Microsoft, Amazon etc), but yet, their market cap valuation was at similar (or higher?) P/Es. >

FSD. The dash is a mini computer that could play games and what not. They actually push out updates to their car software through Wi-Fi. Most all cars have chips and software but they don’t generally get updates, or you’d have to take your car in to a service center. 
Ultimately, outside of FSD, this is all fairly superficial. There was also the musk effect