Tempering Expectations for GPT-3 and OpenAI’s API
I am totally confused by people not being impressed with gtp3. If you asked 100 people in 2015 tech industry if these results would be possible in 2020, 95 would say no, not a chance in hell. Nobody saw this coming. And yet nobody cares because it isn’t full blown AGI. That’s not the point. The point is that we are getting unintuitive and unexpected results. And further, the point is that the substrate from which AGI could spring may already exist. We are digging deeper and deeper into “algorithm space” and we keep hitting stuff that we thought was impossible and it’s going to keep happening and it’s going to lead very quickly to things that are too important and dangerous to dismiss. People who say AGI is a hundred years away also said GO was 50 years away and they certainly didn’t predict anything even close to what we are seeing now so why is everyone believing them?