Software effort estimation is mostly fake research (2021)
It's not fake research. It's actually quite an established science in the 24 years I've been doing it.Take your first guess, double it, double it again if the stakeholder is a poser, add 20% per developer less experience than you, subtract 10% for the features you're going to essentially copy paste, add 15% for sick leave (browsing HN) and then double it for every question you have that are unresolved and divide it by the room temperature multiplied by the amount of people with mechanical keyboards.That gives you roughly the right estimate for any job, until the next sprint.