Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains
This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN.The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced.The authors use the simulation to ask questions such as, "what happens if demand for fossil fuels declines gradually, say, due to a transition to green energy technologies, causing the least profitable fossil-fuel assets to shut down?"The answer to that particular question is counterintuitive: A gradual reduction in demand for fossil fuels can lead to sudden large shortages and supply-chain backlogs in many parts of the world.Think of it this way: if enough "seemingly unimportant" assets go offline, all their connections (flows) go offline too, and the remainder of the network's assets and connections (flows) suddenly lack the capacity to get fossil fuel to all the places it needs to go.I've added the paper to my reading list; I want to read it more carefully.