The Future of Programming
An interesting talk, and certainly entertaining, but I think it falls very short. Ultimately it turns into typical "architecture astronaut" naval gazing. He focuses on the shortcomings of "traditional programming" while at the same time imagining only the positive aspects of untried methods. To be honest, such an approach is frankly childish, and unhelpful. His closing line is a good one but it's also trite, and the advice he seems to give leading up to it (i.e. "let's use all these revolutionary ideas from the '60s and '70s and come up with even more revolutionary ideas") is not practical.To pick one example: he derides programming via "text dump" and lauds the idea of "direct manipulations of data". However, there are many very strong arguments for using plain-text (read "The Pragmatic Programmer" for some very excellent defenses of such). Moreover, it's not as though binary formats and "direct manipulations" haven't been tried. They've been tried a great many times. And except for specific use cases they've been found to be a horrible way to program with a plethora of failed attempts.Similarly, he casually mentions a programming language founded on unique principles designed for concurrency, he doesn't name it but that language is Erlang. The interesting thing about Erlang is that it is a fully fledged language today. It exists, it has a ton of support (because it's used in industry), and it's easy to install and use. And it also does what it's advertised to do: excel at concurrency. However, there aren't many practical projects, even ones that are highly concurrency dependent, that use Erlang. And there are projects, such as couch db, which are based on Erlang but are moving away from it. Why is that? Is it because the programmers are afraid of changing their conceptions of "what it means to program"? Obviously not, they have already been using Erlang. Rather, it's because languages which are highly optimized for concurrency aren't always the best practical solution, even for problem domains that are highly concurrency bound, because there are a huge number of other practical constraints which can easily be just as or more important.Again, here we have an example of someone pushing ideas that seem to have a lot of merit in the abstract but in the real world meet with so much complexity and roadblocks that they prove to be unworkable most of the time.It's a classic "worse is better" scenario. His insult of the use of markup languages on the web is a perfect example of his wrongheadedness. It took me a while to realize that it was an insult because in reality the use of "text dump" markup languages is one of the key enabling features of the web. It's a big reason why it's been able to become so successful, so widespread, so flexible, and so powerful so quickly. But by the same token, it's filled with plenty of ugliness and inelegance and is quite easy to deride.It's funny how he mentions unix with some hints of how awesome it is, or will be, but ignores the fact that it's also a "worse is better" sort of system. It's based off a very primitive core idea, everything is a file, and very heavily reliant on "text dump" based programming and configuration. Unix can be quite easily, and accurately, derided as a heaping pile of text dumps in a simple file system. But that model turns out to be so amazingly flexible and robust that it creates a huge amount of potential, which has been realized today in a unix heritage OS, linux, that runs on everything from watches to smartphones to servers to routers and so on.Victor highlights several ideas which he thinks should be at the core of how we advance the state of the art in the practice of programming (e.g. goal based programming, direct manipulations of data, concurrency, etc.) but I would say that those issues are far from the most important in programming today. I'd list things such as development velocity and end-product reliability as being far more important. And the best ways to achieve those things are not even on his list.Most damningly, he falls into his own trap of being blind to what "programming" can mean. He is stuck in a model where "programming" is the act of translating an idea to a machine representation. But we've known for decades that at best this is a minority amount of the work necessary to build software. For all of Victor's examples of the willingly blind programmers of the 1960s who saw things like symbolic coding, object oriented design and so forth as "not programming" and more like clerical work he makes fundamentally the same error. Today testing, integration, building, refactoring and so on are all hugely fundamental aspects of prototyping and critically important to end-product quality as well as development velocity. And increasingly tooling is placing such things closer and closer to "the act of programming", and yet Victor himself still seems to be quite blind to the idea of these things as "programming". Though I don't think that will be the view among programmers a few decades down the road.