Is developer compensation becoming bimodal?
I teach computer science at a well-known, large and mediocre university.I see bimodal grade distributions all the time. The more technical a subject, the more bimodal the grades.In fluff subjects like software engineering where grading relates to essay writing and group projects, grade distribution tends to be gaussian.
OTOH in technical subjects where I grade by automated test suits, basically students fail almost all tests or pass almost all tests.These grade distributions have been constant, regardless of university, regardless of who teaches the course.There really is a sharp threshold that separates those who get programming from those who don't. And those who get programming really are a lot more productive than those who don't get it. Moreover, once you get it, learning further parts of CS (e.g. new algorithms, new programming languages, new OSes etc) is much easier then if you don't get it, and learning new things makes you even more powerful. The mastery of doing great things is joyful and makes you want to learn more. The frustration of failure drives you away from the subject.I find it plausible that grade distributions turn into similar income distributions later in life.