Heuristics that almost always work
The security guy metaphore is false to a degree. The security guy is the reason there are no robberies as he himself reduces the win lose ratios. Given no security guard win ratio for robbers is very high (no witness, just take stuff and go). The company has several security level cameras, alarms, security agency nearby they can calibrate their response to further devalue the win possibility.There is also society game level above all of that. You can persuade more and more people that stealing things just generates additional costs. Seems we have to allocate resources(private and public) on protecting property and its beneficial for all if we stop playing this game (where reasonable people have to spend money to continously fix unreasonable people's deeds).