My iOS Indie-Game Numbers
like others have said, absolutely, thank you for writing this up.a few observations for my fellow hope-laden game developers.tl;dr: anyone can use today's tools to make crappy, me-too games.  you need to make good games to succeed.  to do that, you're going to need your 10,000 hours of game programming (not the same as web programming), 10,000 hours of game design (not just playing games), and 10,000 hours of all manner of art.1) the marketplace is a "bloodbath"while, yes, there are tons and tons of other apps out there, to be frank, that's just fine for quality indie developers, because the majority of those games all look like your apps.  you cannot with any serious expectation, for example, think to sell like hotcakes something like "wordgrid" or "letters".  i mean, the reason "tetra" got any traction at (i would bet as i haven't read the reviews) all was for its multiplayer component.you cannot expect to have sales numbers like incredible-art-having sworcery or the incredible-paradigm-busting papers please with average-looking, average-playing, average-genre games.if you want to succeed, you must-must-must differentiate yourself.  if you can't, yes -- it's a hobby.  and, unfortunately no, you're not a professional.just because you can't throw a rock without hitting an amazingly easy toolset does not mean you'll build amazing games.  it just means that everyone without the talent to build such games has an equal chance to show off the fact they can't build amazing games.2) marketing is everything.no.  no it's not.i'm part of the zynga/playdom facebook games generation where we instrumented, measured, and then poured on users.  we thought virality was king and users were something you bought.  push that k-factor through the roof!!!come to find out, retention was king.  this is why zynga is ... um ... having issues.  come to find out, you need a good game.if you have a good game and that game is easy to share, you'll get users from both channels -- app review sites and word of mouth -- without a lot of dough.  you'll grow more slowly, but give people a reason, the method, and the content to share and they will.that's not to say marketing isn't important -- it is.  it's just not the most important thing by far.3) it's a lottery.only for simplistic, easy-to-copy games.  take the "threes vs. 2048" conflict as an example:awful 2048 grossing data:
http://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/840919914/rank-history/...still substantial threes grossing data:
http://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/779157948/rank-history/...if you make something that anyone with a keyboard can make, you'll need to have an extrodinary amount of luck (2048 from ketchapp, flappy bird, etc.) that looks like a lottery.if you make something interesting that people want to play, you'll be just fine.  especially these days when everyone is looking to discover the next minecraft or spelunky.so, if you don't have the ability or team to make a good game, yes, you will need the lottery.  and every time i hear about "the lottery" that is the app marketplace, all i can think of is nate silver's "the signal and the noise" book.if you think it takes a lottery to succeed on the app store, you have a massive blindspot and that blindspot is:  you don't have the ability -- yet -- to make quality games.  you only think you do.don't give up.  keep going.  you'll get there eventually.