Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
>An event for which the timing is unpredictable may "at this time" have only a 5-percent probability of occurring during the coming month, but a 60-percent probability if the time frame is extended to one year (5 percent per month for 12 months).If the time frame were extended to two years, would the probability be 120%?The correct probability is:1 - (1-.05)^12 ~= 0.46Hard to credit a text about cognitive biases that makes elementary mistakes in probability.