The Economy
I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession.  Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession?Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism.  I don't see this as a very convincing bear case.For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about everything since the mid-2000s.http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/the-future-is-stil...