Gigerenzer’s simple rules of thumb often outperform complex models
This feels like Gigerenzer has read my mind.
Two weeks back I blogged about a simple heuristic to model uncertainty in software estimates [1], and I received confirmation from several people that my proposed technique might be spot-on: estimate your happy path, figure out how many dimensions your uncertainty has, and multiply the happy path estimates by (sqrt PI ^ dimensions)[1] https://tojans.me/posts/software-estimates-done-right/