NASA advisers say SpaceX rocket technology could put lives at risk
I think the last paragraph really says it all:> Before the very first shuttle flight, NASA estimated that the chance of death was between 1 in 500 and 1 in 5,000. Later, after the agency had compiled data from shuttle flights, it went back and came up with a very different number. The chance of death was actually 1 in 12.The fact is, these numbers are made up because the systems are too complicated to calculate based on individual components. Until they have something like 50+ launches (after the kinks are worked out), we wont really know the actual chances of blowing up a rocket are. Further, how well do the escape capsule(s) work? If they work the majority of the time (saving astronauts from he explosion), that'd also dramatically drive down the risk.If say, there was a 1 in 30 chance of a rocket exploding using the method described, but the escape capsule failed to save the astronauts 1 out of 10 times. Then the real risk of killing the astronauts is 1 in 300. Unfortunately, we simply don't have either of those numbers, so the actual "risk" level is essentially made up.