Why the Sony hack is unlikely to be the work of North Korea
Just earlier today I had a client asking me about the Sony breach, and I laid out all the reasons I didn't think North Korea was actually behind it -- nor did Schneier.Then just a few hours later the New York Times came out with an article claiming that they have information from some Washington sources that it has been confirmed to be North Korea. I checked the author bylines, because Judith Miller and the NYTimes, and David E Sanger I could see being politically motivated to make a case like that on some pretty flimsy evidence, but Nicole Perlroth has good tech journalist creds.So, I dunno. Looks like it might be North Korea after all.At the moment, I figure there are three scenarios, and none of them are really wonderful to think about:1. It's China, working through or with North Korea. They certainly have the ability (and in some cases, insider information), and they've been waging a network and technology-based conflict around the world for years now. But, in the past, they've been carefully diplomatic about managing relations between North Korea and the rest of the world; it doesn't make sense for them to suddenly paint a huge target on NK's back, and China's past exploits have been kept pretty quiet. I don't understand why they'd want this one to be big and public.2. It actually is North Korea. We've been led to believe that they exist in a technological dark ages of sorts, with most of their infrastructure relying on technology that would horrify the average HN user. They're certainly belligerent enough, but now suddenly we find that they have not just the technology to pull it off, but also the talent? How does that kind of talent even develop under a strictly regimented government like North Korea's? What kind of ability do they actually have?3. It's neither North Korea nor China. This is the most disturbing one to think about; now that the NYTimes and Washington are involved, it smells a bit like the kind of political maneuver with propaganda that we saw in the run-up to the Iraq war. At the moment, this is still really feasible, and it makes me wonder what Washington's motives might be.Only time will tell for sure, I guess. Whoever is actually behind this, they won't be able to stay quiet forever.