Zillow just gave us a look at machine learning's future
This post strikes me as empty bluster. It basically says "the data scientists didn't consider the possibility that the model might fail to predict the real world." Which is like looking at the Boeing 737 MAX debacle and saying "they didn't consider the possibility that the plane might not be stable". This is most likely both untrue and lacking insight. What almost certainly happened was they validated their model extensively, but overlooked the angle relevant to this use case. Or overexcited executives failed to heed the caveats of the nerds.> When I advise Data Scientists to understand Topology and Differential Geometry, this is why.Oh really? I've taken grad-level courses in those fields. It's nice general education but has nothing to do with this situation. Knowing about the Lucas critique from economics would be much more relevant.My pet theory -- completely unvalidated but at least potentially insightful -- is that they failed to put in adequate margin for adverse selection: homeowners whose homes are worth less than they seem on paper were much more likely to take the Zillow offer. Adverse selection turns prediction variance, which you might naively expect to "average out" when using a well-calibrated model at scale, into a bias towards underperformance.Another way to put it: asymmetric information. Be very careful betting against homeowners who probably know much more than you do.Or read this comment, which puts it better than I did: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29140104