Can we survive technology? (1955) [pdf]
I wonder how long we'll go without another nuclear explosion used in war. I think the armageddon scenario is quite unlikely, simply because so few people have access to the needed amount of nukes to pull it off. It's only a couple of states which can do it. One of those states even survived a regime change without those nukes being triggered. However, there has been a trend of smaller states obtaining nuclear weapon capabilities. The more states you have, the more likely it is that one of them is willing to use the bomb.So I think rather talking about whether these small states will use nukes, we should talk about when this will happen. 30 years? 50? 100? 500?