Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk
This is something weird happening around Rationalism/X-Risk/AGI prognostications.The "Great Minds And Great Leaders" types are rushing to warn about the risks, as are a large number of people who spend a lot of time philosophizing.But the actual scientists on the ground -- the PhDs and engineers I work with every day and who have been in this field, at the bench, doing to work on the latest generation of generative models, and previous generations, in some cases for decades? They almost all roll their eyes aggressively at these sorts of prognostications. I'd say 90+% either laugh or roll their eyes.Why is that?Personally, I'm much more on the side of the silent majority here. I agree with Altman's criticisms of criticisms about regulatory capture, that they are probably unfair or at least inaccurate.What I actually think is going on here is something more about Egos than Greatness or Nefarious Agendas.Ego, not intelligence or experience, is often the largest differentiator between the bench scientist or mid-level manager/professor persona and the CEO/famous professor persona. (The other important thing, of course, is that the former is the group doing the actual work.)I think that most of our Great Minds and Great Leaders -- in all fields, really -- are not actually our best minds and best leaders. They are, instead, simply our Biggest Egos. And that those people need to puff themselves up by making their areas of ownership/responsibility/expertise sound Existentially Important.