I typically try not to spend a lot of time looking into a crystal ball, but a coaching client of mine asked what I thought the video production business will look like in 5, 10 and 20 years. My insight is based on how I perceive the industry with regard to society, multimedia and technology. Here's what I have to say.
Regarding the video business in the next 5 years, I think video overall is coming back full-force. Corporate video was very popular in the 80's but started to die down pretty significantly in the 90's due to the emergence of CD-ROM authoring and distribution capabilities. This is also when PowerPoint hit the scene heavily in the corporate presentation environment. In my opinion, now is a great time to start a video business and with proper marketing and sales strategies, you'll be able to really flourish in the coming 5 years.
In 10 years, I believe that bandwidth will finally catch up with High-Definition (HD) camera quality (probably before then but definitely by 10 years). Full-resolution HD videos/films will be accessible on your laptop, phones, in your cars, everywhere! The thing to always remember though is that no matter what the technology is doing, you want to remain highly focused on content creation, or storytelling. There will always be a new technology and a new group of investors willing to dump millions or even billions into the technology.
Let the big boys spend all their money on the technology. Just get real proficient at learning new technologies as they come available. Then, teach your clients how you can help them adapt the new technologies in their communications strategies. I believe that no matter how much technology changes, there will still be a need for good video producers/storytellers. In 10 years, there will be more channels than compelling content.
It will be much easier to start your own television/web network and advertisers will have an unlimited supply of choices on where to run their advertisements. Niche markets/audiences will be the key to success in a decade. If you command a high percentage of a particular market segment, you'll be able to develop channels with content that serves that market and make a nice income selling advertising space or member subscriptions.
Note:The tools to produce videos will get cheaper and cheaper every year so it is vitally important that you position your video production business and yourself as a producer who understands business/marketing/training communications… not just video production. You will need to focus heavily on the consultation part of the video business instead of just cameras and software. There will be people who buy gear and call themselves "pros" on a daily basis but the companies that stay focused on the "strategy level of thinking" when dealing with clients will prevail.
This has worked for me so I continue to stay positioned in this manner.
In 20 years… who knows? I'm sure that video will still be a profitable business but the technology will probably be out of this world in terms of what it can do. As I've stated before, no matter what the technology does, their will only be a small percentage of the population that will understand how to craft a compelling and effective message. Study the technologies over the years and figure out quickly how they apply to the video business and how your clients can use them to improve their communications.
I think in 20 years, video WILL be as common and necessary as having a website or email address is today. Instead of business cards, you'll have a video card. Instead of a brochure, you'll have a brochure with tiny chips that can show videos right on the paper.
The above comments were all related to the corporate video industry. How will the consumer video industry fare?
The short and probably best answer is that people will always get married, have birthday parties, and need family history videos. The point is that consumer video needs will never go away. Unlike business, video needs that ebb and flow with the economy, personal video needs are ALWAYS there. There isn't as much money to be made serving consumers but the demand will always be there.
In fact, I can't seem to shake the thought process of developing several consumer- related video businesses that serve this unending need. (Weddings, birthdays, college sports reels, etc.) There is a lot more competition in the consumer video industry because the videos are easier to produce and the client doesn't have the same expectations as to quality as the business customer does. The key is to develop branded products that are easy for the customer to understand and afford. Then, promote them like there is no tomorrow!
I recommend looking at two parallel plans going forward.
Focus primarily on building a video service that develops business videos but also look at serving consumer needs. In the early years of your video production business, the consumer needs often pay the bills when the video business clients go missing in action. Plus, the consumer jobs pay faster.