Overview: Matthew is a major hurricane and will be impacting the Bahamas over the next 24-36 hours and the the E FL coast Thursday and Friday. Hurricane force winds extend out up to 45 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out 175 miles from the center.
Watches/warnings: Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of FL. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the rest of the E FL coast north of the warning area. (see below). Hurricane warnings are also in effect for Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.
Impacts: The areas currently under hurricane watches and warnings may not only experience hurricane force winds, but rainfall accumulations of 5-10 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches across eastern Cuba. Storm surge may be 3-5 feet north of Palm Beach. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach SE FL late Thursday. The system has the potential to cause widespread damage and anyone along the path needs to prepare now.
Intensity Forecast: Matthew is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next few days. It's entirely possible Matthew could reach Category 4 status before reaching the east coast of Florida Thursday night. The ocean temperatures are more than warm enough to sustain a major hurricane. The upper level conditions also appear very favorable for possible strengthening.
Track Forecast: It's becoming more probable that Matthew may make landfall somewhere near Cape Canaveral as a major hurricane. Remember, it's been 10+ years since a major hurricane has made landfall in United States. The last one was Hurricane Wilma back in 2005. This weekend, Matthew will move to the north and likely impact coastal sections of SC/NC before turning to the east or south. By early next week, Matthew may loop back towards the west and try to make progress towards Florida. However, that's a long-term forecast and it may change.
Latest Model Guidance: The models have continued their trend to the west some. The Bermuda ridge of high-pressure over the western Atlantic has been stronger than what the models were forecasting. The high-pressure ridge is what will be responsible for pushing Matthew towards the coast. How strong this ridge and how fast Matthew moves will determine if the center will be able to reach the coast. By this weekend, an upper-level trough of low pressure will be moving across the United States and may be able to turn Matthew east before it can reach the Carolina coast, but that is not a guarantee. Timing will be very critical. We are getting within the 2-3 day window and there's less chance of the models flipping to a totally different solution.
Alert Levels: Impacts are high-imminent along Matthew's track over the next 2- days. See our alert level key below to determine your possible actions. We also posted a graphic with some actions you may want to consider if you are in the cone.
Conclusion: All interests from Florida and the entire eastern seaboard through the Canadian Maritimes, need to continue following the future forecast for Matthew. It appears the models are coming to the consensus that Matthew will get very close to the coast (could even make landfall) and anyone in the cone needs to really be watching this situation closely. We will be here with more updates as new data comes in. Thank you for using our service and we will have another update as conditions warrant.
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