He was scratched from a stronger race at Sale on Monday in favour of this. He had no luck at Caulfield and Sandown two and three starts ago, respectively, when caught wide without cover and then was ridden quietly at Pakenham last start where I'm not convinced he ran a strong 1600m. The third and fifth placegetters have both since won from that race while the winner has won again in a stronger race. The drop in distance looks ideal and from the barrier Jason Maskiell should be able to put him right on the speed. He looks the one to beat in a weaker maiden than what he has been contesting and I won't be surprised if he starts shorter than the $3+ available in early betting.
There is significant rain forecast for later in the day at Ararat and if it does hit then both Haukland Beach and Honey Princess should be suited. However, even if the rain doesn't arrive I think both are still a better chance than their early prices of $26 and $31 respectively would suggest.
Haukland Beach ran well at Hanging Rock first-up over the unsuitably short distance of 1000m. She'd probably be better suited on a bigger track than Ararat and over further but she was unlucky not to finish closer when fresh so the extra 300m should suit and the booking of Maskiell is a positive.
Honey Princess should be fitter for the first-up run where she was just too far back off a fast speed and wasn't far behind High Hopper, who then beat Covert Miss/She's our Gift, who are two of the favourites in this race. She has won twice second-up previously and her best form is among the best in the race. Linda Meech taking the ride is a positive and it won't surprise if she makes sharp improvement. I'm happy to have something small each-way, 1x3 on both her and Haukland Beach at the $31 and $26 respectively.