OscarWrap: How to Handicap Likely Best Picture Nominees
History can provide a few hints in determining just how large the field will be in the Academy's top category
Steve Pond | November 23, 2015 @ 4:49 PM	Last Updated: November 24, 2015 @ 11:55 AM
This story originally appeared in The Race Begins issue of TheWrap's Oscar magazine.
That's the question we ask every year around this time, surveying the field of Best Picture Oscar contenders and trying to figure out not only which of them will please Academy voters, but how large a slate will make the cut. In the four years since the AMPAS Board of Governors opted for a variable number of nominees between five and 10, we've had nine nominees three times and eight nominees once. (For reasons we've gone into in the past, it'll likely never be 10.)
If I had to guess, I'd say that 2015 will be another year of eight. But that's only a guess, and it comes without having seen The Revenant, Joy and The Hateful Eight, three potential awards heavyweights. Still, we can at least look at the types of films from which Best Picture nominees are drawn.
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THE TRADITIONAL ACADEMY MOVIE
FORERUNNERS: The King's Speech, War Horse, The Theory of Everything
THIS YEAR: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, 45 Years
Impeccably crafted and boasting old-fashioned storytelling, these films are mainstays almost every year, though they seldom win anymore. Pretty much everything Steven Spielberg makes fits in this category, and Bridge of Spies is no exception. Brooklyn and 45 Years are more subtle than many TradAcad flicks, but moving enough to appeal to the older demographic that makes up much of the voting body (though the youthful Brooklyn has a wider reach than that).
THE IMPORTANT MOVIE
FORERUNNERS: 12 Years a Slave, The Hurt Locker, Selma
THIS YEAR: Spotlight, Carol, Suffragette, Straight Outta Compton, The Danish Girl, The Big Short
Hot-button issues and social significance always help with voters who are know their choices will be judged by posterity. This year has no shortage of weighty themes, including sexual abuse, gay and women's rights, race relations, transgender issues and the economic collapse.
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THE MOVIE ABOUT HOLLYWOOD
FORERUNNERS: The Artist, Argo
THIS YEAR: Trumbo
Back-to-back wins by The Artist in 2012 and Argo in 2013 may have overstated the idea that Hollywood adores movies about itself, but there's no question voters like to see their industry onscreen. The main contender this year is Trumbo, which played like gangbusters at an Academy screening and deals with the Hollywood blacklist as seen by a man who won two Oscars under false names because he couldn't openly be employed.
THE SHOCK OF THE NEW
FORERUNNERS: Birdman, The Social Network, Her
THIS YEAR: Steve Jobs, Anomalisa, Love & Mercy
As the Academy gets younger and more diverse, its choices are occasionally adventurous, as Oscars for the Coen brothers' No Country for Old Men and Alejandro G. Inarritu's Birdman showed. This year's standard-bearer is Danny Boyle and Aaron Sorkin's Steve Jobs, a bracing and unconventional torpedoing of the biopic genre.
THE SMALL PASSION PICK
FORERUNNERS: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Winter's Bone, Whiplash
THIS YEAR: Room, Beasts of No Nation, Son of Saul
This is where the Academy's preferential system of counting votes comes into play: Best Picture choices are ranked, and it's better to have 250 No. 1 votes than 2,500 No. 2s and 3s. Small indies that are passionately loved by a minority of voters can sneak into the field–a fact that bodes particularly well for Lenny Abrahamson's disquieting Room, but also for the brutal Beasts and a wild card, Laszlo Nemes' foreign-language entry Son of Saul.
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THE DAZZLER
FORERUNNERS: Gravity, Hugo, Life of Pi
THIS YEAR: The Walk
They're big, bold and distinguished by mind-boggling effects, which cause many of the below- the-line Academy branches to rally behind them (and often puts them in the "Big Hit" group, too). Added bonus: A Best Picture nomination essentially guarantees that the film will win Best Visual Effects.
THE BIG HIT
FORERUNNERS: Avatar, The Help, Toy Story 3
THIS YEAR: The Martian, Inside Out, Mad Max: Fury Road, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
These are the movies that ABC hopes the Academy nominates–because when blockbusters are in the running, ratings for the Oscar show go up. This year, Star Wars would probably provide a huge ratings bump all by itself, though it's likelier that voters will go for The Martian instead.
25 Holiday Movies We're Dying to See (Photos)
"Love the Coopers" -- November 13
Four generations of the Cooper family come together for a gathering, at which they discover new family bonds and the spirit of the holidays. Olivia Wilde, Amanda Seyfried, Marisa Tomei, Ed Helms, Diane Keaton, Anthony Mackie and John Goodman are among those starring in the film.
"Carol" -- November 20
A department store clerk (Rooney Mara) falls for an older, married woman (Cate Blanchett) in Todd Haynes' romantic drama set in 1950s New York.
"Secret in Their Eyes" -- November 20
Julia Roberts, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Nicole Kidman star in a drama about an FBI agent (Roberts) who embarks on a long investigation for her daughter's killer.
"The Hunger Games: Mockingjay -- Part 2" -- November 20
In the fifth and final movie of the franchise, Katniss Everdeen (Jennifer Lawrence) and her comrades in District 13 embark on a full-on revolution against the Capitol.
"Creed" -- November 25
Sylvester Stallone returns as Rocky Balboa, this time serving as trainer and mentor to Adonis Creed (Michael B. Jordan), the son of former enemy Apollo Creed.
"The Good Dinosaur" -- Nov. 25
Pixar's movie about the epic journey into the world of dinosaurs features an Apatosaurus as he makes an unlikely friend: a human boy.
"Victor Frankenstein" -- Nov. 25
In this retelling of Mary Shelley's classic, Daniel Radcliffe's Igor takes center stage as we learn about his dark origins and how he became the assistant of scientist Victor Frankenstein (James McAvoy).
"The Danish Girl" -- Nov. 25
Eddie Redmayne slips into the role of transgender pioneer Lili Elbe, who had what is considered to be the first successful gender reassignment surgery. Alicia Vikander and Amber Heard costar.
"Krampus" -- December 4
Just another little holiday horror film as a young boy conjures a Christmas demon.
"Macbeth" -- December 4
Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard star in Justin Kurzel's retelling of the classic Shakespeare tragedy.
"The Lady in the Van" -- December 4
Maggie Smith reprises her onstage role as a crotchety transient who parks herself on an otherwise quiet residential street.
"Youth" -- December 4
Michael Caine and Harvey Keitel play 70-something best friends who vacation together in the Alps -- but it's Jane Fonda's supporting role that's been getting most of the buzz.
"In the Heart of the Sea"" -- December 11
In Ron Howard's film, a 19th-century whaling ship is preyed upon by a sperm whale, which strands the crew at sea for 90 days. The film stars Chris Hemsworth, Tom Holland, Cillian Murphy and Benjamin Walker.
"The Big Short" -- December 11
Ryan Gosling, Steve Carell, Brad Pitt and Christian Bale lead the ensemble in Adam McKay's fact-based exploration of the causes of the housing bubble and the Great Recession.
"Sisters" -- December 18
Amy Poehler and Tina Fey play two sisters who throw one last party before their parents sell the house where they grew up.
"Son of Saul" -- December 18
A prize winner at this year's Cannes, the Hungarian drama follows a Hungarian-Jewish prisoner at Auschwitz who finds a body be believes may be his son.
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens" -- December 18
The continuation of the "Star Wars" saga, set 30 years after "Return of the Jedi," stars Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill, Carrie Fischer, Adam Driver, John Boyega and Daisy Ridley.
"Concussion" -- December 25
Will Smith stars as Dr. Bennet Omalu, the neuropathologist who made the discovery of CTE, the football-related brain trauma. The film also features Alec Baldwin, Stephen Moyer and Luke Wilson.
"Daddy's Home" -- December 25
Will Ferrell is the ideal stepdad in this family comedy -- until the free-wheeling biological father (Mark Wahlberg) shows up.
"Joy" -- December 25
Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper step in front of the camera again in "Joy," a film about a suburban mom who launches a domestic goods empire. Robert De Niro and Dascha Polanco costar.
"Point Break" -- December 25
In the reboot of the 1991 Keanu Reeves-Patrick Swayze action classic, Luke Bracey stars as an FBI agent who goes undercover with extreme-sports athletes suspected of elaborate heists.
"The Hateful Eight" -- December 25
A bounty hunter (Kurt Russell) gets caught in a blizzard in 19th-century Wyoming and finds shelter with some very suspicious strangers. Quentin Tarantino's Western also stars Samuel L. Jackson, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Bruce Dern and Walton Goggins.
"The Revenant" -- December 25
Leonardo DiCaprio stars as Hugh Glass, a trapper on the 19th-century American frontier seeking revenge on the people who left him for dead after a bear mauling. Tom Hardy, Will Poulter and Domhnall Gleeson also star.
"Anomalisa" -- December 30
Charlie Kaufman's new film, a prize winner at the Venice Film Festival, is a typically bizarre stop-motion animated dramedy about an author who struggles to connect with other people.
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