In One Chart
Hog futures are smoking hot as Americans fire up their grills for July 4th
Published: July 4, 2017 at 8:26 a.m. ET
Victor Reklaitis
A top for lean hog prices is likely in mid-July, says one analyst
Lean hog futures have soared about 27% so far this year.
It's been a tough year so far for most commodities, but hog prices have been flying higher.
Lean hog futures have gained 28% in 2017, according to data from FactSet. The chart below shows how prices have jumped.
When pigs fly...
A grilling-demand boost ahead of July 4 festivities has helped send pork prices higher, fueling the recent rally in hog futures, a Dow Jones Newswires report says. But some traders are bracing for pressure after Independence Day.
A high in the summer hog market "will likely occur around the middle of July," writes veteran commodities broker Dennis Smith in a column for National Hog Farmer. "I'd say either just prior to or just after the expiration of the July lean hog contract."
Up until now, higher supplies haven't whacked prices.
A Department of Agriculture report last week showed a record-large U.S. herd for the March-May quarter, but the record hog supplies have been met by robust demand, a Reuters report notes.
July hogs US:LHN7 have hit the highest level on a continuous chart in about two-and-a-half years, the report adds. The July contract rose above 91 cents per pound on Monday, according to FactSet Data, and the most-active contract — the one for August US:LHQ7 — settled above 84 cents per pound on Monday.
Wheat prices US:WU7 also are showing a big year-to-date gain, while oil US:CLQ7 and sugar US:SBV7 are among the notable losers in 2017's first half.
See:It's been an ugly first half for commodities in 2017
The PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund DBC, -0.36% — a $1.7 billion ETF that tracks 14 commodities — is down 8% so far this year.
Barron's: Tech Stocks Are Getting Slammed Yet Again. Why Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and 10 Others Can Rise.
Tech stocks are sensitive to bond yields, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at its highest level in two years.
The 60/40 portfolio 'is in danger' as Federal Reserve gears up for a rate-hike cycle in coming months
Stock-market warning signal: Here's what surging bond yields say about S&P 500 returns in next 6 months
Victor Reklaitis is MarketWatch's Money & Politics reporter and is based in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining MarketWatch, he served as an assistant editor and reporter at Investor's Business Daily. Before IBD, he worked for several newspapers in Virginia. Follow Victor on Twitter at: @vicrek.