A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection
Guifang Shang, Brad Biggerstaff, Alice RICHARDSON, Michelle GAHAN, Brett Lidbury
Background The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. Material and methods Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel 'combined' model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. Results The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. Conclusion The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a 'generic' arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply.
Transfusion and Apheresis Science
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018
Published - Oct 2016
Ross River virus
Arboviruses
Chikungunya virus
Blood Safety
Shang, G., Biggerstaff, B., RICHARDSON, A., GAHAN, M., & Lidbury, B. (2016). A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection. Transfusion and Apheresis Science, 55(2), 233-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018
Shang, Guifang ; Biggerstaff, Brad ; RICHARDSON, Alice ; GAHAN, Michelle ; Lidbury, Brett. / A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection. In: Transfusion and Apheresis Science. 2016 ; Vol. 55, No. 2. pp. 233-239.
@article{bba4498d473745cfbdb72a2835a9a33a,
title = "A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection",
abstract = "Background The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. Material and methods Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel 'combined' model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. Results The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. Conclusion The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a 'generic' arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply.",
keywords = "Arboviruses, Blood transfusion, Public health, Risk estimation model",
author = "Guifang Shang and Brad Biggerstaff and Alice RICHARDSON and Michelle GAHAN and Brett Lidbury",
doi = "10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018",
journal = "Transfusion Science",
Shang, G, Biggerstaff, B, RICHARDSON, A, GAHAN, M & Lidbury, B 2016, 'A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection', Transfusion and Apheresis Science, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 233-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018
A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection. / Shang, Guifang; Biggerstaff, Brad; RICHARDSON, Alice; GAHAN, Michelle; Lidbury, Brett.
In: Transfusion and Apheresis Science, Vol. 55, No. 2, 10.2016, p. 233-239.
T1 - A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection
AU - Shang, Guifang
AU - Biggerstaff, Brad
AU - RICHARDSON, Alice
AU - GAHAN, Michelle
AU - Lidbury, Brett
N2 - Background The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. Material and methods Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel 'combined' model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. Results The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. Conclusion The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a 'generic' arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply.
AB - Background The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. Material and methods Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel 'combined' model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. Results The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. Conclusion The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a 'generic' arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply.
KW - Arboviruses
KW - Blood transfusion
KW - Public health
KW - Risk estimation model
U2 - 10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018
DO - 10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018
JO - Transfusion Science
JF - Transfusion Science
Shang G, Biggerstaff B, RICHARDSON A, GAHAN M, Lidbury B. A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection. Transfusion and Apheresis Science. 2016 Oct;55(2):233-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018
10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018