As birth rates plummet in the developed world, migrants are keeping our economies afloat. They account for half of the increase in the US workforce since 2005, and 70 per cent in Europe. Even so, the number of people of working age supporting each retiree over 65 is falling. In 2000, this “dependency ratio” was 4:1 across the European Union. Today it is 3.5:1. And even with current levels of migration it is set to fall to 2 by 2050. In 2000, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs ran a detailed simulation to see how many immigrants would be needed to support the population over 65 in developed countries. They found that with no migration, Europe’s population is set to fall 17 per cent by 2050 – with a 30 per cent decrease in people of working age. To maintain overall numbers, the EU needs 850,000 immigrants per year – for comparison, the net migrant number from outside the EU in 2013 was 540,000. However, to keep the working-age population from falling, it needs nearly double that: 1.5 million a year. That would mean recent migrants and their children would account for 14 per cent of the UK population and over a third of Germany’s and Japan’s. Even then, the dependency ratio would be just over 2. The US fares better – current and expected migration kept its dependency ratio at 3. “Migration might be the most relevant force to have an impact on the age distribution in Europe to 2050,” says demographer Pablo Lattes, an author of the study. Germany, which has a shortfall of 1.8 million skilled workers, is keenly aware of this. Officials have been saying quietly at international meetings that this is why they have accepted so many of Europe’s current wave of refugees. In 2000, the government tried to bring in 20,000 foreign high-tech workers, but this was met with strong opposition from the public. Germany may hope refugees will be harder for people to object to. Read more on the truth about migration hereThis article appeared in print under the headline “Age concerns”More on these topics: