All eyes will be on Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania Saturday morning as the nation’s most famous groundhog emerges from his hole to make his annual weather prediction. Tradition has it if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on Groundhog Day (Feb. 2 this year), the U.S. is in store for six more weeks of winter weather. If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, the country should expect warmer temperatures and an early arrival of spring. Phil was named America’s official forecasting groundhog in 1887. Since then, Phil – or his descendants – have predicted more winter 104 times and an end of winter 18 times. There are no records for 10 predictions. According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Phil’s prediction skills are iffy at best. For example in the last three years Phil saw his shadow twice (2017 and 2018) only to have temperatures trend higher in February and March. In 2016, Phil didn’t see his shadow and an early spring – marked by higher than average temperatures – occurred in the next two months. Overall, Phil has a success rate of about 39 percent. You can see a history of Phil’s recent predictions here but as NOAA explained it, “The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis.” NOAA said while Groundhog Day is a nice break in the winter fun, climate records and statistics tell us winter probably isn’t over. Climatologically speaking, the three coldest months of the year are December, January, and February, so winter typically still has a while to go when Phil comes out in search of his shadow on Feb. 2.