What is an El Nino? Australia is in an El Nino weather pattern. What does that mean and what can we expect? DO you want the good news or the bad news? Firstly, you won’t have to pull out your winter coat just yet, meaning we could have a few extra months of sunshine ahead. But it’s very possible winter could hit us later, potentially ruining our balmy spring months. University of Melbourne climate scientist Dr Andrew King has looked into the extreme weather patterns around Australia this year so far. It’s obviously been a hot one and 2016 is looking like it’s going to be the warmest year on record. So while we’re now used to all this sunshine, what should we expect from the rest of the year and why is this happening?WHERE IS WINTER? Those who like to rug up in their warm woollies might have to face the prospect of not doing that this year. Sydney in particular is still experiencing temperatures higher than 20C and it’s already mid-May, so it’s pretty hard to believe winter is right around the corner. Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Dr Andrew Watkins said we can expect warmer winter months. “The outlook shows warmer than average days for northern and far southern Australia and nights are very likely to be warmer than average across the country,” he said. Dr King said the warmer weather was caused by a mix of El Niño and climate change. He said the 2015/16 El Niño was one of the strongest on record and boosted temperatures across the globe. The El Niño has been caused by warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific and the weather event typically reduces rainfall and causes droughts and heatwaves. “It’s already late May and we haven’t had much cold weather, especially on the east coast of Australia,” Dr King said. “There will definitely be a later start for winter.”WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN SPRING? It’s possible that winter may hold off until spring, with La Nina expected to hit later in the year. La Nina is a bit nicer than the Godzilla El Niño we’ve put up with for the past few months, with rain and cooler conditions expected to bring a bit of relief to Australia. Dr King said however there was still a lot of uncertainty around when and if La Nina would hit the country. Currently there is only about a 50 per cent chance of it happening. He said this major weather event was associated with cooler seas in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Queensland may be hit with some tropical cyclones and huge amounts of rainfall as La Nina takes over. IS THIS CLIMATE CHANGE? Dr King said these extreme weather events were certainly related to climate change. The warmer sea temperatures have caused coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and he said in the next decade coral would probably never get its colour back. “The main thing I’ve noticed is this coral bleaching,” he said. “It’s a really major event and we haven’t seen a lot of it but in the past few decades it’s become quite common. “El Niño and climate change are certainly driving this event.” Dr King said parts of the reef were dying off and it needed sea temperatures to return to normal so it had time to recover. “In a couple of decades, there won’t be enough time for the coral to recover. “The last 17 record breaking hot years globally can be attributed to climate change,” he said. While it’s hard to tell how climate change has affected 2016, Dr King said scientists discovered climate change caused by humans made it about 1C hotter last year. He said these abnormally warm temperatures would be basically impossible without climate change. WILL IT JUST KEEP GETTING HOTTER? While this year will remain hotter than usual, temperatures in 2017 will most likely drop due to the La Nina. Dr King wrote a report for The Conversation and said while 2016 was likely to be the hottest year, the record wouldn’t last too long. He said 2016 wouldn’t be the last time we saw extreme heat events and said with the warming trend, it would only be a matter of time until we’re struck with another year that’s an absolute scorcher. “Only if we substantially reduce our greenhouse gas emissions now will we see the benefit of fewer record heat events in the future,” he said.