gtfintechlab/czech_national_bank · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 26 417	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	__index_level_0__ int64 0 499
the board considered this resistance to be a positive development	certain	dovish	not forward looking	453
the current exchange rate at the time of the meeting was slightly stronger than forecasted	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	279
however, materialisation of the risk of a second wave could not affect monetary policy, and this risk remained hypothetical	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	366
some of the board members admitted the possibility of renewed growth in commodity prices, which would lead to a slowdown of the global economy and in particular of emerging economies	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	149
it was mentioned that the current figures on the supply side could indicate the economys improved resistance to the effects of a strong exchange rate in comparison to previous assumptions	uncertain	dovish	not forward looking	387
by contrast, aleš michl disagreed with a rapid increase in rates, because he felt that in order to bring down the current inflation there was primarily a need for a decrease in prices of raw materials and a reduction in the quantity of money in circulation, including a need for wage restraint, lower government debt and tighter mortgage lending conditions	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	11
it would be driven by robust growth in household consumption and a recovery in investment amid continued growth in external demand	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	133
he also said that without tighter monetary conditions it was practically impossible to rectify the wrong expectations of private agents associated with the period of very low interest rates	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	296
the board now focused on a more general discussion of optimal interest rate settings	certain	neutral	forward looking	66
the board stated that the recent evolution of the exchange rate posed a downside risk to the inflation forecast	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	17
nevertheless, it was also emphasised that the new information released during december did not give clear signals	uncertain	neutral	not forward looking	121
the procyclical behaviour of households, who save less in good times, was also mentioned	certain	neutral	not forward looking	462
according to the draft bill passed by parliament, the primary impact of these taxes on inflation as of 1 may was for the most part non-existent	certain	neutral	not forward looking	201
the meeting opened with a presentation of the first situation report and the new macroeconomic forecast covering the horizon up to the end of 2017	certain	neutral	forward looking	231
wages in industry had registered substantial growth, and a rise in the wage dynamics in some areas of the public sector had also not been ruled out	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	193
the uncertainty abroad had also increased the significance of external factors for monetary policy decision-making at the cnb	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	332
the effects of the growing supply-side inflation pressures and their potential spillover into prices were discussed in detail by the board members	uncertain	hawkish	not forward looking	392
as to the structure of the economic growth, the change in inventories in particular had been higher than forecasted	certain	dovish	not forward looking	487
however, it was said that positive signals were also apparent in the euro area, especially in germany	uncertain	neutral	not forward looking	41
growing foreign demand and slowing domestic demand and extremely favourable terms of trade	certain	neutral	not forward looking	412
in a discussion about the fiscal policy changes, the opinion was expressed that the implementation of the tax reform might further spur corporate and private investment	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	96
by contrast, food price inflation had been higher than forecasted	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	270
in the discussion that followed the presentation of the situation report, a majority of the board members assessed the risks to the inflation forecast at the monetary policy horizon as being slightly anti-inflationary	certain	dovish	forward looking	34
in a situation of a provisional budget, however, no firm conclusions could be drawn from the favourable government budget outturn for january	uncertain	neutral	not forward looking	160
internal factors indicate a clear tendency towards more prudent wage development even though there are doubts as to whether this trend will continue into next year	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	445
it was said in the discussion that the external uncertainties had increased the possibility of a hard brexit and the growth in protectionist measures in global trade had been joined by the negotiations on italys state budget	uncertain	dovish	not forward looking	97
moreover, unlike in the czech republic, consumer price inflation in the euro area now largely reflected the rise in prices of energy, i.e	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	442
in this context, it was expressed that in a period of economic recovery, higher m2 dynamics most probably signal that transaction money growth is caused by higher gdp dynamics	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	375
compared to the previous macroeconomic forecast from october last year, expected inflation and forecast-consistent interest rates had been revised downwards	certain	dovish	not forward looking	291
part of the economy was accelerating, and from the viewpoint of financing and growth, this segment was considered to be healthy	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	82
the opinion was expressed that the lowering of monetary policy rates abroad might also be contributing to this tightening	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	3
a stronger-than-forecasted exchange rate could be a result of the korunas continued role of a safe haven	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	40
eva zamrazilová pointed out that if annual services price inflation within core inflation were adjusted for imputed rent and package holiday prices, it would exceed 6	uncertain	hawkish	not forward looking	99
the 50 basis point cut in the repo rate, at the very least, had compensated for the risk related to the spontaneous tightening of the interest rate component of real monetary conditions due to declining inflation and inflation expectations	certain	dovish	not forward looking	144
in this regard, it was said repeatedly that the system of escape clauses had been applied in the opposite direction in the past when oil prices had been rising	certain	neutral	not forward looking	353
the risk scenario based on the model variant assuming more intense propagation of the cost shocks to inflation expectations and to inflation in other price categories, and also generally slower monetary policy transmission, was suggesting a potential risk of higher inflation and thus also the need for a higher interest rate path	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	420
aleš michl also said that, in parallel with announcing support measures, the government should prepare a fiscal consolidation plan leading gradually from 2022 onwards to a balanced budget if the economy returned to growth	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	334
the current high inflation, however, was still assessed as being a transitory phenomenon mainly reflecting changes to indirect taxes, whose first-round effects had accounted for more than two percentage points of headline inflation, increasing regulated prices including the introduction of fees in health care and the exceptionally high food price growth at the end of last year, which, however, was gradually easing	certain	dovish	not forward looking	278
jiří rusnok stated that both sensitivity scenarios of the forecast were highly likely to materialise simultaneously to some extent, but it was virtually impossible to estimate the extent of their opposing effects	uncertain	neutral	not forward looking	92
in 2010 q1, headline inflation had remained low and had been below the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the inflation target	certain	dovish	not forward looking	76
the forecast expected headline inflation to increase this year from its current very low but positive level	certain	hawkish	forward looking	2
cpi inflation was somewhat higher in november than the october forecast indicated	certain	neutral	not forward looking	198
in a discussion about the labour market, it was said repeatedly that the forecasts assumption of faster wage growth was correct thanks to positive tendencies in the labour market	certain	dovish	forward looking	275
a similar conclusion was also valid for the assessment of risks	certain	neutral	not forward looking	129
worse sentiment impacting on the corporate sector could manifest itself negatively in a slower recovery in household consumption via lower wage pressures	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	492
in addition, investment in the czech republic was apparently divided between the export production industries and the domestic market industries	certain	neutral	not forward looking	336
in this connection, repeated mentioned was made of the sizeable revision of the outlook for domestic real economic activity, while jan frait and karina kubelková also mentioned the persisting risk of weaker demand from the czech republics main trading partner countries, especially germany	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	313
consistent with this alternative scenario were only slightly lower rates than in the baseline scenario, with virtually identical paths for headline and monetary-policy relevant inflation but with considerably lower economic growth	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	145
in response, it was said that the cnb should pursue an autonomous monetary policy, especially in an environment where limited transmission of the interest rate differential to the koruna exchange rate allowed it to do so	certain	dovish	forward looking	166
jan kubíček said the new data were not indicating the materialisation of this risk for the time being	certain	dovish	not forward looking	432
average wage growth had risen to 2.2 in 2015 q1, slightly above the current forecast	certain	neutral	not forward looking	1
the substantial reduction in the balance of services surplus in q2 would, on the other hand, have an adverse effect on gdp growth	certain	dovish	not forward looking	74
the board opened the meeting with a presentation of the march small situational report, assessing whether the newly available information was consistent with the assumptions of the january forecast	certain	neutral	not forward looking	408
it was said repeatedly that the external situation represented more of a downside risk to inflation	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	340
the board also discussed real economic activity	certain	neutral	not forward looking	289
in a discussion about the pro-inflationary risks, there was the issue of stronger economic growth not only on the macro level, but also in relation to the exceptionally high growth of exports and industrial production	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	108
acceleration of the money supplys lead over gdp was another topic discussed during the meeting	certain	neutral	not forward looking	226
the opinion that the public statements made by the board members should be consistent with the actual proposals presented at monetary policy meetings was also heard in the discussion	certain	neutral	not forward looking	362
jiří rusnok said that the exchange rate could become a built-in destabiliser if it were to start deviating too dramatically from its equilibrium level, although this was not the case at present	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	364
this deviation had been due to deeper declines in household consumption and gross fixed capital formation	certain	dovish	not forward looking	89
the board also stated that inflation would be affected in the coming quarters by a high weight of administrative effects and would therefore show greater volatility	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	476
the opinion was expressed that growth abroad would also be constrained by new regulatory measures in the financial sector	certain	dovish	forward looking	235
however, the dynamics of the deteriorating current account balance had given reason for concern	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	413
it was also said, however, that the risks to the forecast were slightly anti-inflationary but did not justify changing the settings of the monetary conditions	uncertain	neutral	not forward looking	188
the nature of disinflationary risks remained unchanged from the last situational report	certain	neutral	not forward looking	159
the meeting opened with a presentation of the second situation report based on an assessment of the information obtained since the winter forecast was drawn up	certain	neutral	not forward looking	302
information on the progress and expected results of wage negotiations and data on the high december trade balance deficit were considered to be the most pending issues on the agenda	uncertain	neutral	not forward looking	21
comments are welcome on the following email address tomas	certain	irrelevant	not forward looking	113
against this, opinions were expressed that the widening of the output gap was consistent with the evolution of related economic indicators, so the rise in interest rates should not be put off	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	311
demand pressures associated with the future closing of the negative output gap were predicted close to the july forecast, even though the original output gap level, in the light of published economic growth and inflation data, had increased slightly	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	469
in this context, it was said that, rather than the size of the revision of expectations concerning economic growth, it was the distribution of that change between the change in the growth rate of potential output and the output gap that was important for future inflation	uncertain	neutral	forward looking	194
on the other hand, according to tomáš holub and jan procházka, the real interest rate conditions were autonomously tightening very quickly as inflation expectations decreased	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	112
given the tight labour market, this could be reflected in higher wage demands	uncertain	hawkish	forward looking	266
materialisation of that risk could contribute, via lower commodity prices, to continued very subdued producer price inflation in the euro area	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	51
however, the opinion was also expressed that a stronger exchange rate of the koruna might dampen any inflation pressures stemming from growth in commodity and food prices	certain	dovish	forward looking	238
however, it was said in the discussion that domestic economic growth would be higher than forecasted, especially this year, and that other sectors besides the export-oriented manufacturing industry were recovering thanks to the higher external growth	uncertain	neutral	forward looking	83
it was also noted that economic growth in 2005 q1 might have been slowed by the appreciation of the koruna at the end of last year and the beginning of this year	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	380
against this, it was said that owing to the limits arising from the regulation of banks, which were curbing natural arbitrage trades, the effective interest rate differential might be much narrower than the monetary policy rate differential	uncertain	neutral	not forward looking	460
however, these effects should only be temporary in nature and would be reflected accordingly in the inflation forecast	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	233
vojtěch benda added that the maximum safe speed of the czech economy was not as high now as it had been in the past decade	uncertain	dovish	not forward looking	147
real exports and imports of goods and services had seen higher-than-predicted third-quarter growth	certain	neutral	not forward looking	101
the view was expressed that the repeated changes in indirect tax rates might be having an adverse effect on inflation expectations	uncertain	hawkish	not forward looking	452
at the close of the meeting the board decided unanimously to increase the two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.00	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	119
there was a substantial decline in personal automobile sales	certain	neutral	not forward looking	72
under this policy, the outlook for both headline and monetary policy-relevant inflation was heading towards the inflation target from below	certain	dovish	forward looking	321
in 2004, the forecast expected another moderate boost in economic dynamics, thanks in particular to a recovery in investment growth	certain	neutral	forward looking	131
the main upside risk from the domestic economy was the planned increase in the vat rate in 2012	uncertain	neutral	forward looking	253
the outcome depended on whether or not the repo change was anticipated by financial markets	uncertain	neutral	forward looking	326
the component of gdp that has a direct influence on consumer prices, had been lower than forecasted	certain	dovish	not forward looking	409
headline inflation had gone down by 0.6 percentage point to 3.2 in may and was thus 0.2 percentage point lower than forecasted	certain	dovish	not forward looking	346
however, the opinion was also expressed that the inflationary pressures at the forecast horizon might not be as significant as predicted by the model forecast and might not fully offset the short-term anti-inflationary risks	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	169
in this regard, it was said that monetary policy consisted primarily in influencing demand and that the uncertainties identified with regard to wage growth might in the outlook change into a factor having a negative effect on domestic demand	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	498
at the close of the meeting the board unanimously lowered the two-week repo rate by 75 basis points to 1.00	certain	dovish	not forward looking	19
while discussing these issues, the board pointed to the danger of reverting back to pre-1997 developments, where expansive fiscal policy and inert fiscal policy in relation to the imbalance significantly contributed to the subsequent monetary crisis	certain	hawkish	not forward looking	174
the interest rate differential channel underlying this effect assumes precisely the opposite exchange rate trend compared to the current observation	certain	neutral	not forward looking	55
against this, the opinion was expressed that the domestic economic recovery assumed by the forecast was pretty uncertain, as even the quite dynamic economic growth in asia and latin america was unable to create the necessary demand stimulus for european economies	uncertain	dovish	forward looking	495
annual inflation continued to fluctuate slightly above the midpoint of the january forecast	certain	neutral	not forward looking	228
the majority view was that the high inflation was not yet spilling over into a significant surge in nominal wage growth	certain	dovish	not forward looking	225
in line with the forecast, the monthly data from the start of this year were indicating continued growth in domestic economic activity, as solid growth in industrial production and construction output and a pick-up in retail sales had continued to be observed in january	certain	dovish	not forward looking	219
after discussing the situation report, the board decided by a majority vote to leave the two-week repo rate unchanged at 2	certain	neutral	not forward looking	63

the board considered this resistance to be a positive development

certain

dovish

not forward looking

453

the current exchange rate at the time of the meeting was slightly stronger than forecasted

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

279

however, materialisation of the risk of a second wave could not affect monetary policy, and this risk remained hypothetical

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

366

some of the board members admitted the possibility of renewed growth in commodity prices, which would lead to a slowdown of the global economy and in particular of emerging economies

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

149

it was mentioned that the current figures on the supply side could indicate the economys improved resistance to the effects of a strong exchange rate in comparison to previous assumptions

uncertain

dovish

not forward looking

387

by contrast, aleš michl disagreed with a rapid increase in rates, because he felt that in order to bring down the current inflation there was primarily a need for a decrease in prices of raw materials and a reduction in the quantity of money in circulation, including a need for wage restraint, lower government debt and tighter mortgage lending conditions

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

11

it would be driven by robust growth in household consumption and a recovery in investment amid continued growth in external demand

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

133

he also said that without tighter monetary conditions it was practically impossible to rectify the wrong expectations of private agents associated with the period of very low interest rates

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

296

the board now focused on a more general discussion of optimal interest rate settings

certain

neutral

forward looking

66

the board stated that the recent evolution of the exchange rate posed a downside risk to the inflation forecast

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

17

nevertheless, it was also emphasised that the new information released during december did not give clear signals

uncertain

neutral

not forward looking

121

the procyclical behaviour of households, who save less in good times, was also mentioned

certain

neutral

not forward looking

462

according to the draft bill passed by parliament, the primary impact of these taxes on inflation as of 1 may was for the most part non-existent

certain

neutral

not forward looking

201

the meeting opened with a presentation of the first situation report and the new macroeconomic forecast covering the horizon up to the end of 2017

certain

neutral

forward looking

231

wages in industry had registered substantial growth, and a rise in the wage dynamics in some areas of the public sector had also not been ruled out

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

193

the uncertainty abroad had also increased the significance of external factors for monetary policy decision-making at the cnb

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

332

the effects of the growing supply-side inflation pressures and their potential spillover into prices were discussed in detail by the board members

uncertain

hawkish

not forward looking

392

as to the structure of the economic growth, the change in inventories in particular had been higher than forecasted

certain

dovish

not forward looking

487

however, it was said that positive signals were also apparent in the euro area, especially in germany

uncertain

neutral

not forward looking

41

growing foreign demand and slowing domestic demand and extremely favourable terms of trade

certain

neutral

not forward looking

412

in a discussion about the fiscal policy changes, the opinion was expressed that the implementation of the tax reform might further spur corporate and private investment

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

96

by contrast, food price inflation had been higher than forecasted

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

270

in the discussion that followed the presentation of the situation report, a majority of the board members assessed the risks to the inflation forecast at the monetary policy horizon as being slightly anti-inflationary

certain

dovish

forward looking

34

in a situation of a provisional budget, however, no firm conclusions could be drawn from the favourable government budget outturn for january

uncertain

neutral

not forward looking

160

internal factors indicate a clear tendency towards more prudent wage development even though there are doubts as to whether this trend will continue into next year

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

445

it was said in the discussion that the external uncertainties had increased the possibility of a hard brexit and the growth in protectionist measures in global trade had been joined by the negotiations on italys state budget

uncertain

dovish

not forward looking

97

moreover, unlike in the czech republic, consumer price inflation in the euro area now largely reflected the rise in prices of energy, i.e

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

442

in this context, it was expressed that in a period of economic recovery, higher m2 dynamics most probably signal that transaction money growth is caused by higher gdp dynamics

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

375

compared to the previous macroeconomic forecast from october last year, expected inflation and forecast-consistent interest rates had been revised downwards

certain

dovish

not forward looking

291

part of the economy was accelerating, and from the viewpoint of financing and growth, this segment was considered to be healthy

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

82

the opinion was expressed that the lowering of monetary policy rates abroad might also be contributing to this tightening

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

3

a stronger-than-forecasted exchange rate could be a result of the korunas continued role of a safe haven

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

40

eva zamrazilová pointed out that if annual services price inflation within core inflation were adjusted for imputed rent and package holiday prices, it would exceed 6

uncertain

hawkish

not forward looking

99

the 50 basis point cut in the repo rate, at the very least, had compensated for the risk related to the spontaneous tightening of the interest rate component of real monetary conditions due to declining inflation and inflation expectations

certain

dovish

not forward looking

144

in this regard, it was said repeatedly that the system of escape clauses had been applied in the opposite direction in the past when oil prices had been rising

certain

neutral

not forward looking

353

the risk scenario based on the model variant assuming more intense propagation of the cost shocks to inflation expectations and to inflation in other price categories, and also generally slower monetary policy transmission, was suggesting a potential risk of higher inflation and thus also the need for a higher interest rate path

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

420

aleš michl also said that, in parallel with announcing support measures, the government should prepare a fiscal consolidation plan leading gradually from 2022 onwards to a balanced budget if the economy returned to growth

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

334

the current high inflation, however, was still assessed as being a transitory phenomenon mainly reflecting changes to indirect taxes, whose first-round effects had accounted for more than two percentage points of headline inflation, increasing regulated prices including the introduction of fees in health care and the exceptionally high food price growth at the end of last year, which, however, was gradually easing

certain

dovish

not forward looking

278

jiří rusnok stated that both sensitivity scenarios of the forecast were highly likely to materialise simultaneously to some extent, but it was virtually impossible to estimate the extent of their opposing effects

uncertain

neutral

not forward looking

92

in 2010 q1, headline inflation had remained low and had been below the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the inflation target

certain

dovish

not forward looking

76

the forecast expected headline inflation to increase this year from its current very low but positive level

certain

hawkish

forward looking

2

cpi inflation was somewhat higher in november than the october forecast indicated

certain

neutral

not forward looking

198

in a discussion about the labour market, it was said repeatedly that the forecasts assumption of faster wage growth was correct thanks to positive tendencies in the labour market

certain

dovish

forward looking

275

a similar conclusion was also valid for the assessment of risks

certain

neutral

not forward looking

129

worse sentiment impacting on the corporate sector could manifest itself negatively in a slower recovery in household consumption via lower wage pressures

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

492

in addition, investment in the czech republic was apparently divided between the export production industries and the domestic market industries

certain

neutral

not forward looking

336

in this connection, repeated mentioned was made of the sizeable revision of the outlook for domestic real economic activity, while jan frait and karina kubelková also mentioned the persisting risk of weaker demand from the czech republics main trading partner countries, especially germany

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

313

consistent with this alternative scenario were only slightly lower rates than in the baseline scenario, with virtually identical paths for headline and monetary-policy relevant inflation but with considerably lower economic growth

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

145

in response, it was said that the cnb should pursue an autonomous monetary policy, especially in an environment where limited transmission of the interest rate differential to the koruna exchange rate allowed it to do so

certain

dovish

forward looking

166

jan kubíček said the new data were not indicating the materialisation of this risk for the time being

certain

dovish

not forward looking

432

average wage growth had risen to 2.2 in 2015 q1, slightly above the current forecast

certain

neutral

not forward looking

1

the substantial reduction in the balance of services surplus in q2 would, on the other hand, have an adverse effect on gdp growth

certain

dovish

not forward looking

74

the board opened the meeting with a presentation of the march small situational report, assessing whether the newly available information was consistent with the assumptions of the january forecast

certain

neutral

not forward looking

408

it was said repeatedly that the external situation represented more of a downside risk to inflation

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

340

the board also discussed real economic activity

certain

neutral

not forward looking

289

in a discussion about the pro-inflationary risks, there was the issue of stronger economic growth not only on the macro level, but also in relation to the exceptionally high growth of exports and industrial production

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

108

acceleration of the money supplys lead over gdp was another topic discussed during the meeting

certain

neutral

not forward looking

226

the opinion that the public statements made by the board members should be consistent with the actual proposals presented at monetary policy meetings was also heard in the discussion

certain

neutral

not forward looking

362

jiří rusnok said that the exchange rate could become a built-in destabiliser if it were to start deviating too dramatically from its equilibrium level, although this was not the case at present

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

364

this deviation had been due to deeper declines in household consumption and gross fixed capital formation

certain

dovish

not forward looking

89

the board also stated that inflation would be affected in the coming quarters by a high weight of administrative effects and would therefore show greater volatility

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

476

the opinion was expressed that growth abroad would also be constrained by new regulatory measures in the financial sector

certain

dovish

forward looking

235

however, the dynamics of the deteriorating current account balance had given reason for concern

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

413

it was also said, however, that the risks to the forecast were slightly anti-inflationary but did not justify changing the settings of the monetary conditions

uncertain

neutral

not forward looking

188

the nature of disinflationary risks remained unchanged from the last situational report

certain

neutral

not forward looking

159

the meeting opened with a presentation of the second situation report based on an assessment of the information obtained since the winter forecast was drawn up

certain

neutral

not forward looking

302

information on the progress and expected results of wage negotiations and data on the high december trade balance deficit were considered to be the most pending issues on the agenda

uncertain

neutral

not forward looking

21

comments are welcome on the following email address tomas

certain

irrelevant

not forward looking

113

against this, opinions were expressed that the widening of the output gap was consistent with the evolution of related economic indicators, so the rise in interest rates should not be put off

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

311

demand pressures associated with the future closing of the negative output gap were predicted close to the july forecast, even though the original output gap level, in the light of published economic growth and inflation data, had increased slightly

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

469

in this context, it was said that, rather than the size of the revision of expectations concerning economic growth, it was the distribution of that change between the change in the growth rate of potential output and the output gap that was important for future inflation

uncertain

neutral

forward looking

194

on the other hand, according to tomáš holub and jan procházka, the real interest rate conditions were autonomously tightening very quickly as inflation expectations decreased

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

112

given the tight labour market, this could be reflected in higher wage demands

uncertain

hawkish

forward looking

266

materialisation of that risk could contribute, via lower commodity prices, to continued very subdued producer price inflation in the euro area

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

51

however, the opinion was also expressed that a stronger exchange rate of the koruna might dampen any inflation pressures stemming from growth in commodity and food prices

certain

dovish

forward looking

238

however, it was said in the discussion that domestic economic growth would be higher than forecasted, especially this year, and that other sectors besides the export-oriented manufacturing industry were recovering thanks to the higher external growth

uncertain

neutral

forward looking

83

it was also noted that economic growth in 2005 q1 might have been slowed by the appreciation of the koruna at the end of last year and the beginning of this year

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

380

against this, it was said that owing to the limits arising from the regulation of banks, which were curbing natural arbitrage trades, the effective interest rate differential might be much narrower than the monetary policy rate differential

uncertain

neutral

not forward looking

460

however, these effects should only be temporary in nature and would be reflected accordingly in the inflation forecast

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

233

vojtěch benda added that the maximum safe speed of the czech economy was not as high now as it had been in the past decade

uncertain

dovish

not forward looking

147

real exports and imports of goods and services had seen higher-than-predicted third-quarter growth

certain

neutral

not forward looking

101

the view was expressed that the repeated changes in indirect tax rates might be having an adverse effect on inflation expectations

uncertain

hawkish

not forward looking

452

at the close of the meeting the board decided unanimously to increase the two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.00

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

119

there was a substantial decline in personal automobile sales

certain

neutral

not forward looking

72

under this policy, the outlook for both headline and monetary policy-relevant inflation was heading towards the inflation target from below

certain

dovish

forward looking

321

in 2004, the forecast expected another moderate boost in economic dynamics, thanks in particular to a recovery in investment growth

certain

neutral

forward looking

131

the main upside risk from the domestic economy was the planned increase in the vat rate in 2012

uncertain

neutral

forward looking

253

the outcome depended on whether or not the repo change was anticipated by financial markets

uncertain

neutral

forward looking

326

the component of gdp that has a direct influence on consumer prices, had been lower than forecasted

certain

dovish

not forward looking

409

headline inflation had gone down by 0.6 percentage point to 3.2 in may and was thus 0.2 percentage point lower than forecasted

certain

dovish

not forward looking

346

however, the opinion was also expressed that the inflationary pressures at the forecast horizon might not be as significant as predicted by the model forecast and might not fully offset the short-term anti-inflationary risks

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

169

in this regard, it was said that monetary policy consisted primarily in influencing demand and that the uncertainties identified with regard to wage growth might in the outlook change into a factor having a negative effect on domestic demand

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

498

at the close of the meeting the board unanimously lowered the two-week repo rate by 75 basis points to 1.00

certain

dovish

not forward looking

19

while discussing these issues, the board pointed to the danger of reverting back to pre-1997 developments, where expansive fiscal policy and inert fiscal policy in relation to the imbalance significantly contributed to the subsequent monetary crisis

certain

hawkish

not forward looking

174

the interest rate differential channel underlying this effect assumes precisely the opposite exchange rate trend compared to the current observation

certain

neutral

not forward looking

55

against this, the opinion was expressed that the domestic economic recovery assumed by the forecast was pretty uncertain, as even the quite dynamic economic growth in asia and latin america was unable to create the necessary demand stimulus for european economies

uncertain

dovish

forward looking

495

annual inflation continued to fluctuate slightly above the midpoint of the january forecast

certain

neutral

not forward looking

228

the majority view was that the high inflation was not yet spilling over into a significant surge in nominal wage growth

certain

dovish

not forward looking

225

in line with the forecast, the monthly data from the start of this year were indicating continued growth in domestic economic activity, as solid growth in industrial production and construction output and a pick-up in retail sales had continued to be observed in january

certain

dovish

not forward looking

219

after discussing the situation report, the board decided by a majority vote to leave the two-week repo rate unchanged at 2

certain

neutral

not forward looking

63