gtfintechlab/bank_of_japan · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 28 1.12k	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
in the housing market, significant adjustments were still continuing.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,008	705
a few members pointed to the recent bond issuance by firms that had previously deferred issuance in view of the instability in global financial markets stemming from the heightened sovereign risks in europe, and also noted the increase in the number of firms issuing bonds.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	921
however, some members noted that the pick-up in overseas economies had been only moderate and uneven.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	158
regarding housing investment, a different member expressed the recognition that, although some recent indicators had been relatively weak, it would return to an improving trend as interest rate developments stabilized, given that households' purchasing behavior with respect to housing was strong and the level of housing inventories was low.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	654
they agreed that it would be appropriate for the bank to reduce the maximum amount outstanding of the fixed-rate operation by about 5 trillion yen and instead increase outright purchases of t-bills as similar short-term assets, by the same amount.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	822
one member was of the opinion that firms' wage- and price-setting behavior had been changing to behavior that assumed a continuous rise in prices, and this provided evidence that the deflationary mindset was starting to be dispelled.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	43
meanwhile, members reaffirmed that (1) it was extremely important to ensure the credibility of fiscal management; and (2) it was for this reason that they expected the government to steadily promote measures aimed at establishing a sustainable fiscal structure, in line with the medium-term fiscal plan.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	189
regarding the direction of the bank's monetary policy responses to recent developments, members concurred that it was appropriate for the bank to enhance monetary easing, with a view to doing its utmost to ensure smooth corporate financing and maintaining stability in financial markets, thereby preventing firms' and households' sentiment from deteriorating, given the following facts that reflected the outbreak of covid-19: financial markets had been unstable, as seen particularly in significant fluctuations in the stock market; and concern over financial positions had become apparent, mainly among small and medium-sized firms.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	869
many members shared the assessment that services prices continued to increase moderately, partly due to the moderate wage increases thus far.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	987
(3) the government deemed it necessary to work toward narrowing the negative output gap in order to overcome deflation.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	467
thereafter, it had depreciated, albeit with fluctuations, partly reflecting speculation about the direction of monetary policy in japan and the united states.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	257
with regard to private consumption, members agreed that it had picked up gradually on the whole, although consumption of services, such as eating and drinking as well as accommodations, remained at a low level.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	658
one of these members said that the optimal inflation rate should be considered by taking into account the future developments in economic activity and prices without depending too much on the general public's current perception of price developments.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	754
some members said that, in such situation, the amount outstanding of the bank's jgb holdings would remain at a high level and thus its easing effects would continue; however, it could be considered that the conduct of jgb purchases would not be regarded as an active monetary policy tool.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	632
although business fixed investment was likely to remain more or less unchanged for the time being as the sense of excessive capital stock was strong among firms, it was expected to pick up gradually with the improvement in corporate profits.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	426
on january 22, the budget for fiscal 2016 had been submitted to the diet.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,016	288
one of these members added that, according to the aggregate results of wage negotiations compiled by the japanese trade union confederation (rengo) so far, movements toward wage increases were expected to spread even among small firms.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	70
some members expressed concern about a slowdown in private consumption in major countries such as germany, where it had been rising moderately.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	167
as for the outlook, the diffusion index was projected to deteriorate, mainly in view of the subsequent decline in demand following the front-loaded increase; nevertheless, it was still projected to be in favorable territory to a marginal degree.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	102
some members said that production had recently been growing somewhat faster than expected on the back of steady growth in exports to asia.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	250
they also agreed that, in a situation where the output gap was likely to remain more or less at the same level, it seemed likely that the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi (excluding fresh food) would be around 1.0 percent on average, reflecting the rise in the prices of petroleum products and food products.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	832
the year-on-year decline in the cpi (excluding fresh food) had accelerated, mainly due to the prices of petroleum products being lower than the high levels of a year earlier, in addition to the substantial slack persisting in the economy as a whole.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	916
some members said that private consumption and fixed asset investment continued to show high growth.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	763
members also shared the recognition that, on the price front, careful attention should be paid to the responsiveness of prices to the aggregate supply and demand balance as well as future developments in medium- to long-term inflation expectations and international commodity prices.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	84
members shared the recognition that inflation expectations appeared to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective, although some market indicators and survey results had recently shown relatively weak developments.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	295
as for prices, international commodity prices had been more or less level.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	125
regarding the corporate sector, members agreed that, although the pace of increase in exports had slowed, partly due to the effects of the appreciation of the dollar, business sentiment and the momentum in production activity had been solid on the back of firm household spending, and business fixed investment continued to recover.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	845
as for the outlook, members shared the recognition that, due in part to the effects resulting from the set of economic measures, the tightening of labor market conditions was likely to continue, accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate, and capacity utilization rates also were likely to increase again as exports and production would probably pick up.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	191
a different member expressed the opinion that, in a situation where there was no change in the trend of the positive output gap, it was appropriate that the bank maintain the current monetary easing policy and carefully monitor economic developments.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	617
as for long-term interest rates, yields on government bonds with short-term maturities had been more or less unchanged and those with medium- to long-term maturities remained in a similar situation, although they exhibited developments that followed yields on government bonds in the united states.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	64
one member noted that it was necessary to closely monitor future developments in exports, as a sense of vigilance was intensifying among japanese exporting firms, mainly reflecting a reignition of the u.s.-china trade friction.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	709
on the other hand, some members pointed out that goods consumption had been firm, owing in part to an expansion in stay-at-home consumption.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	247
as for domestic private demand, business fixed investment had continued to trend upward and was expected to continue to do so since the growth in domestic and external demand and the high level of corporate profits were likely to be maintained.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	434
regarding global financial markets, members shared the recognition that market participants' risk sentiment had improved, mainly against the background of growing expectations for progress in u.s.-china trade negotiations and the united kingdom's exit from the eu, and that the markets recently were stable compared with some time ago.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	362
as for the outlook, members concurred that overseas economies as a whole were likely to moderately increase their growth rates, as it was likely that advanced economies would continue to see firm growth and emerging economies would move out of their deceleration phase on the back of the developments in advanced economies.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	215
although china's economic activity had gradually been picking up, its capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector had not returned to the level seen prior to the outbreak, and supply chain disruptions caused by a shortage of parts were yet to be resolved.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	879
moreover, some members expressed the view that, in addition to manufacturers, firms in nonmanufacturing industries seemed to be gradually starting to lead the current economic growth, noting the following facts in relation to large nonmanufacturing firms.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	985
return to text attachment january 21, 2020 bank of japan statement on monetary policy at the monetary policy meeting held today, the policy board of the bank of japan decided upon the following.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,020	652
some members expressed the view that the emergence of the fiscal deficit problem in some european countries had directed market attention to fiscal conditions worldwide, including japan, and it had become crucial for every country to maintain market confidence in the future course of fiscal consolidation in the medium to long term.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	316
some members -- while noting the relatively weak developments in consumer confidence since october 2013 -- said that this might be attributable to consumers' awareness of the consumption tax hike, and future developments warranted attention.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	489
as for the outlook, they continued that the growth rates of these economies would increase as the virtuous circle of production, income, and spending was likely to gradually strengthen.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	89
the upward trend was expected to continue as overseas economies continued to grow and domestic demand kept expanding.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	977
the government aimed to secure smooth financial functions, particularly in the disaster areas, working in concert with the bank.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	199
this member added, however, that the current rise in energy and materials prices was characterized by a long-term upward trend against the background of the worldwide growth in demand, especially demand from emerging economies, and that attention to the risk that possible changes in inflation expectations of firms and households would generate such effects should not be slackened merely because second-round effects had not emerged so far.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	277
with regard to the fact that the year-on-year rate of change in the index for televisions turned positive in the cpi for the tokyo metropolitan area for may, one member was paying attention to whether firms' price-setting behavior had started to change against the background of the rise in wages overseas and of the yen's depreciation since autumn 2012.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	878
a few members said that, as suggested by the current further increase in daily and weekly price indices based on the point-of-sale (pos) data, firms had recently taken an aggressive stance of setting higher prices on the sales front, and this was evidence that consumption was resilient.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	789
members shared the view that the depreciation of the yen would push up private consumption through wealth effects stemming from the rises in stock prices and the value of external assets; it would also increase business fixed investment and wages through a rise in corporate profits in the manufacturing industry.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	408
interest rates on euroyen futures, particularly those with distant contract months, had fallen further.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	865
production, while remaining more or less flat, had shown some signs of picking up.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	148
prices were also rising moderately.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	894
these members then expressed the recognition that it was therefore important for the bank to continue to engage in careful communication.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	37
prices for japan real estate investment trusts (j-reits) had been rising somewhat, albeit with fluctuations.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	776
private consumption, notably durable goods consumption, was picking up mainly due to policy measures, despite the continued severe employment and income situation, and this trend was likely to continue for the time being.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,010	380
facility' was put to a vote.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,016	851
a few members pointed to the fact that the purchasing managers' index (pmi) for manufacturing activity had been showing moderate improvement and there had been signs of a pick-up in consumer sentiment in germany and france.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	697
exports and industrial production were expected to remain relatively weak for the time being and increase moderately thereafter as overseas economies gradually emerged from the deceleration phase.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	814
in this situation, stock prices in the united states and europe had been declining.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	904
on this basis, members shared the recognition that the bank's massive jgb purchases, through the reduction in risk premia, were restraining upward pressure on interest rates that stemmed from an improvement in perceived business conditions and a pick-up in expected inflation rates.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	252
with regard to firms' price-setting stance, one member pointed out that, in a situation where an increasing number of firms were beginning to raise prices, due mainly to labor shortages, there were cases where the profitability of firms in some industries -- such as food services as well as beer and related beverages -- had improved owing to price increases, and that this had led to rises in their stock prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	929
housing investment had leveled out.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	611
the member continued that significant progress therefore had been made toward achieving the target.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	500
a different member pointed out that, as japanese firms had long been exposed to intense competition, they had improved their production efficiency to secure high international competitiveness.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	163
japanese stock prices had risen, mainly reflecting strong expectations of upward revisions in firms' earnings forecasts.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	280
regarding the consumption tax hike, a few members expressed the recognition that its effects on private consumption were expected to be smaller than those of the previous hike in 2014, mainly because the government would implement various measures to smooth out demand prior to and after the hike.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	942
one of these members added that a_ clear increase was observed in the number of new job openings in manufacturing, which had been lagging behind.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	596
many members expressed the view that the sovereign debt problems in europe -- which were spreading to large-scale economies such as spain and italy -- had caused a deterioration in the funding conditions of european financial institutions, and therefore concerns over the european financial system as a whole were intensifying further.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	604
as for the outlook, members agreed that japan's economy was likely to evolve broadly in line with the projection presented in the april outlook report.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,007	217
in the money market, interest rates on both overnight and term instruments had been decreasing with the negative interest rate coming into effect, and had been at around or slightly below 0 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	395
business fixed investment was projected to continue to see a moderate increase for the time being on the back of the high level of corporate profits.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	997
the nikkei 225 stock average had risen at one time, mainly as a reflection of the yen's depreciation, and temporarily exceeded the 18,000 yen level.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	475
a few members, however, were of the opinion that the growth in summer bonus payments was likely to be relatively small reflecting the leveling-off of corporate profits.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	203
a different member pointed out that, as often happens at the beginning of the first and second halves of the fiscal year, revisions in services prices had been confirmed in april 2024, the beginning of the fiscal year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	850
real exports posted a solid increase in the january-march quarter from the previous quarter, after exhibiting high growth throughout the second half of 2007.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	963
some members, referring to varied market speculation about the bank's conduct of monetary policy, said that monetary policy should be conducted in light of its objective to achieve sustainable economic growth with price stability.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	982
they were expected to continue to be essentially flat for the time being and increase moderately thereafter, mainly reflecting a pick-up in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	445
this member continued that the authorities should take measures with this point in mind.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,015	507
these members continued that japan's export environment had started to improve, as shown by, for example, the slight improvement in japanese manufacturers' forecasts of future overseas supply-demand conditions for products in the march _tankan, against the background that_ orders from china and the nies had increased and there had been progress in adjustments of japanese firms' overseas inventories.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	645
(1) on january 22, 2018, the government submitted the budget for fiscal 2018 and the supplementary budget for fiscal 2017 to the diet.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,018	196
by making such policy efforts in a seamless manner, the government would do its utmost to help the economy overcome deflation and achieve a self-sustaining recovery.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,010	708
private consumption had increased clearly, supported by the rising trend in compensation of employees, as the effects of the past low crude oil prices and high stock prices remained.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	785
and second, in the united states, following the avoidance of the fiscal cliff at the beginning of 2013, a bill to temporarily suspend the federal debt ceiling had been passed.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	423
however, many members expressed the view that, due partly to the effects of fiscal austerity, severe conditions continued in some peripheral countries that were facing fiscal problems, and disparities between these peripheral countries and core countries were becoming noticeable.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	683
moreover, a different member said that it was desirable for the bank to discontinue the system in which the eligible counterparties could borrow an amount equivalent to twice as much as the net increase in their amount outstanding of loans.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	415
one member said that, given the results of this year's annual spring labor-management wage negotiations to date, achievement of the price stability target seemed to have come in sight to some extent, mainly due to price rises accompanying wage increases.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	895
as for prices, members shared the recognition that the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi (all items less fresh food) was at around 0 percent, mainly affected by the past decline in crude oil prices, and that in the cpi (all items less fresh food and energy) was at around 0.5 percent, while inflation expectations had weakened somewhat.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	693
one member pointed out that, if side effects materialized as a result of additional easing, it was necessary to consider methods to mitigate them.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	993
exports of motor vehicles and their related goods -- due in part to the effects of developments in foreign exchange rates -- had resumed an uptrend, assisted by a pick-up in those to china -- which had seen a significant drop -- while those to the united states and other regions had been steady.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	781
regarding risks to developments in overseas economies, members shared the recognition that uncertainties remained high, including those over u.s. economic policy, negotiations on the united kingdom's exit from the eu, and geopolitical risks.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	400
another member noted the possibility that downward pressure on scheduled cash earnings would remain, reflecting the rising trend in the ratio of part-time workers.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	132
members made an assessment in terms of the first perspective; that is, they assessed the baseline scenario of the outlook for economic activity and prices considered to be the most likely through fiscal 2012.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	55
members shared the view that the pace of growth in the nies and the asean economies was likely to gradually rise since exports were expected to continue picking up, particularly those to europe and the united states, on the back of recovery in advanced economies.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	981
private consumption continued to be on an increasing trend, albeit with a somewhat clearer slowing of the pace of increase.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	847
as for prices, members said that the three-month rate of change in the cgpi had become negative and the cgpi was likely to continue decreasing for the time being, mainly due to the fall in commodity prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	193
some members pointed out that the year-on-year rate of increase in the cpi might slow to around 0 percent in the immediate future, due to the effects of the decline in crude oil prices, but what should be considered in conducting monetary policy was the underlying trend in inflation, and there was no change in this trend.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	696
some members said that, while indicators related to services consumption continued to increase, some sluggishness was being observed in indicators related to retail sales and consumer sentiment.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	431
one member said that firms' attitude toward fixed investment was likely to improve further as exports would start increasing, and this would enhance monetary easing effects on business fixed investment.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	620
with regard to the baseline scenario for prices, many members expressed the view that there was considerable uncertainty, mainly in developments in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, and risks on the price front were skewed to the downside, although a few members expressed the recognition that these risks could be assessed as being largely balanced.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	660
regarding the outlook, although such consumption was expected to be affected by price rises, it was projected to keep increasing moderately with nominal employee income continuing to improve, and partly supported by household savings that had accumulated as a result of pandemic-related restrictions.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	388
the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi (excluding fresh food, on a nationwide basis) had been around zero percent, mainly due to the past drop in crude oil prices.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	177
members discussed what level the loan rate for the complementary lending facility should be.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	859

in the housing market, significant adjustments were still continuing.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,008

705

a few members pointed to the recent bond issuance by firms that had previously deferred issuance in view of the instability in global financial markets stemming from the heightened sovereign risks in europe, and also noted the increase in the number of firms issuing bonds.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

921

however, some members noted that the pick-up in overseas economies had been only moderate and uneven.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

158

regarding housing investment, a different member expressed the recognition that, although some recent indicators had been relatively weak, it would return to an improving trend as interest rate developments stabilized, given that households' purchasing behavior with respect to housing was strong and the level of housing inventories was low.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

654

they agreed that it would be appropriate for the bank to reduce the maximum amount outstanding of the fixed-rate operation by about 5 trillion yen and instead increase outright purchases of t-bills as similar short-term assets, by the same amount.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

822

one member was of the opinion that firms' wage- and price-setting behavior had been changing to behavior that assumed a continuous rise in prices, and this provided evidence that the deflationary mindset was starting to be dispelled.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

43

meanwhile, members reaffirmed that (1) it was extremely important to ensure the credibility of fiscal management; and (2) it was for this reason that they expected the government to steadily promote measures aimed at establishing a sustainable fiscal structure, in line with the medium-term fiscal plan.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

189

regarding the direction of the bank's monetary policy responses to recent developments, members concurred that it was appropriate for the bank to enhance monetary easing, with a view to doing its utmost to ensure smooth corporate financing and maintaining stability in financial markets, thereby preventing firms' and households' sentiment from deteriorating, given the following facts that reflected the outbreak of covid-19: financial markets had been unstable, as seen particularly in significant fluctuations in the stock market; and concern over financial positions had become apparent, mainly among small and medium-sized firms.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

869

many members shared the assessment that services prices continued to increase moderately, partly due to the moderate wage increases thus far.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

987

(3) the government deemed it necessary to work toward narrowing the negative output gap in order to overcome deflation.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

467

thereafter, it had depreciated, albeit with fluctuations, partly reflecting speculation about the direction of monetary policy in japan and the united states.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

257

with regard to private consumption, members agreed that it had picked up gradually on the whole, although consumption of services, such as eating and drinking as well as accommodations, remained at a low level.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

658

one of these members said that the optimal inflation rate should be considered by taking into account the future developments in economic activity and prices without depending too much on the general public's current perception of price developments.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

754

some members said that, in such situation, the amount outstanding of the bank's jgb holdings would remain at a high level and thus its easing effects would continue; however, it could be considered that the conduct of jgb purchases would not be regarded as an active monetary policy tool.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

632

although business fixed investment was likely to remain more or less unchanged for the time being as the sense of excessive capital stock was strong among firms, it was expected to pick up gradually with the improvement in corporate profits.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

426

on january 22, the budget for fiscal 2016 had been submitted to the diet.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,016

288

one of these members added that, according to the aggregate results of wage negotiations compiled by the japanese trade union confederation (rengo) so far, movements toward wage increases were expected to spread even among small firms.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

70

some members expressed concern about a slowdown in private consumption in major countries such as germany, where it had been rising moderately.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

167

as for the outlook, the diffusion index was projected to deteriorate, mainly in view of the subsequent decline in demand following the front-loaded increase; nevertheless, it was still projected to be in favorable territory to a marginal degree.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

102

some members said that production had recently been growing somewhat faster than expected on the back of steady growth in exports to asia.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

250

they also agreed that, in a situation where the output gap was likely to remain more or less at the same level, it seemed likely that the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi (excluding fresh food) would be around 1.0 percent on average, reflecting the rise in the prices of petroleum products and food products.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,008

832

the year-on-year decline in the cpi (excluding fresh food) had accelerated, mainly due to the prices of petroleum products being lower than the high levels of a year earlier, in addition to the substantial slack persisting in the economy as a whole.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

916

some members said that private consumption and fixed asset investment continued to show high growth.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,010

763

members also shared the recognition that, on the price front, careful attention should be paid to the responsiveness of prices to the aggregate supply and demand balance as well as future developments in medium- to long-term inflation expectations and international commodity prices.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

84

members shared the recognition that inflation expectations appeared to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective, although some market indicators and survey results had recently shown relatively weak developments.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

295

as for prices, international commodity prices had been more or less level.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,013

125

regarding the corporate sector, members agreed that, although the pace of increase in exports had slowed, partly due to the effects of the appreciation of the dollar, business sentiment and the momentum in production activity had been solid on the back of firm household spending, and business fixed investment continued to recover.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,015

845

as for the outlook, members shared the recognition that, due in part to the effects resulting from the set of economic measures, the tightening of labor market conditions was likely to continue, accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate, and capacity utilization rates also were likely to increase again as exports and production would probably pick up.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

191

a different member expressed the opinion that, in a situation where there was no change in the trend of the positive output gap, it was appropriate that the bank maintain the current monetary easing policy and carefully monitor economic developments.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

617

as for long-term interest rates, yields on government bonds with short-term maturities had been more or less unchanged and those with medium- to long-term maturities remained in a similar situation, although they exhibited developments that followed yields on government bonds in the united states.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

64

one member noted that it was necessary to closely monitor future developments in exports, as a sense of vigilance was intensifying among japanese exporting firms, mainly reflecting a reignition of the u.s.-china trade friction.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

709

on the other hand, some members pointed out that goods consumption had been firm, owing in part to an expansion in stay-at-home consumption.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

247

as for domestic private demand, business fixed investment had continued to trend upward and was expected to continue to do so since the growth in domestic and external demand and the high level of corporate profits were likely to be maintained.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,008

434

regarding global financial markets, members shared the recognition that market participants' risk sentiment had improved, mainly against the background of growing expectations for progress in u.s.-china trade negotiations and the united kingdom's exit from the eu, and that the markets recently were stable compared with some time ago.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

362

as for the outlook, members concurred that overseas economies as a whole were likely to moderately increase their growth rates, as it was likely that advanced economies would continue to see firm growth and emerging economies would move out of their deceleration phase on the back of the developments in advanced economies.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,015

215

although china's economic activity had gradually been picking up, its capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector had not returned to the level seen prior to the outbreak, and supply chain disruptions caused by a shortage of parts were yet to be resolved.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

879

moreover, some members expressed the view that, in addition to manufacturers, firms in nonmanufacturing industries seemed to be gradually starting to lead the current economic growth, noting the following facts in relation to large nonmanufacturing firms.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

985

return to text attachment january 21, 2020 bank of japan statement on monetary policy at the monetary policy meeting held today, the policy board of the bank of japan decided upon the following.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,020

652

some members expressed the view that the emergence of the fiscal deficit problem in some european countries had directed market attention to fiscal conditions worldwide, including japan, and it had become crucial for every country to maintain market confidence in the future course of fiscal consolidation in the medium to long term.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

316

some members -- while noting the relatively weak developments in consumer confidence since october 2013 -- said that this might be attributable to consumers' awareness of the consumption tax hike, and future developments warranted attention.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

489

as for the outlook, they continued that the growth rates of these economies would increase as the virtuous circle of production, income, and spending was likely to gradually strengthen.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

89

the upward trend was expected to continue as overseas economies continued to grow and domestic demand kept expanding.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

977

the government aimed to secure smooth financial functions, particularly in the disaster areas, working in concert with the bank.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

199

this member added, however, that the current rise in energy and materials prices was characterized by a long-term upward trend against the background of the worldwide growth in demand, especially demand from emerging economies, and that attention to the risk that possible changes in inflation expectations of firms and households would generate such effects should not be slackened merely because second-round effects had not emerged so far.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

277

with regard to the fact that the year-on-year rate of change in the index for televisions turned positive in the cpi for the tokyo metropolitan area for may, one member was paying attention to whether firms' price-setting behavior had started to change against the background of the rise in wages overseas and of the yen's depreciation since autumn 2012.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

878

a few members said that, as suggested by the current further increase in daily and weekly price indices based on the point-of-sale (pos) data, firms had recently taken an aggressive stance of setting higher prices on the sales front, and this was evidence that consumption was resilient.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

789

members shared the view that the depreciation of the yen would push up private consumption through wealth effects stemming from the rises in stock prices and the value of external assets; it would also increase business fixed investment and wages through a rise in corporate profits in the manufacturing industry.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,014

408

interest rates on euroyen futures, particularly those with distant contract months, had fallen further.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

865

production, while remaining more or less flat, had shown some signs of picking up.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

148

prices were also rising moderately.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

894

these members then expressed the recognition that it was therefore important for the bank to continue to engage in careful communication.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

37

prices for japan real estate investment trusts (j-reits) had been rising somewhat, albeit with fluctuations.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

776

private consumption, notably durable goods consumption, was picking up mainly due to policy measures, despite the continued severe employment and income situation, and this trend was likely to continue for the time being.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,010

380

facility' was put to a vote.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,016

851

a few members pointed to the fact that the purchasing managers' index (pmi) for manufacturing activity had been showing moderate improvement and there had been signs of a pick-up in consumer sentiment in germany and france.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

697

exports and industrial production were expected to remain relatively weak for the time being and increase moderately thereafter as overseas economies gradually emerged from the deceleration phase.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

814

in this situation, stock prices in the united states and europe had been declining.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

904

on this basis, members shared the recognition that the bank's massive jgb purchases, through the reduction in risk premia, were restraining upward pressure on interest rates that stemmed from an improvement in perceived business conditions and a pick-up in expected inflation rates.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

252

with regard to firms' price-setting stance, one member pointed out that, in a situation where an increasing number of firms were beginning to raise prices, due mainly to labor shortages, there were cases where the profitability of firms in some industries -- such as food services as well as beer and related beverages -- had improved owing to price increases, and that this had led to rises in their stock prices.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

929

housing investment had leveled out.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

611

the member continued that significant progress therefore had been made toward achieving the target.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

500

a different member pointed out that, as japanese firms had long been exposed to intense competition, they had improved their production efficiency to secure high international competitiveness.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

163

japanese stock prices had risen, mainly reflecting strong expectations of upward revisions in firms' earnings forecasts.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

280

regarding the consumption tax hike, a few members expressed the recognition that its effects on private consumption were expected to be smaller than those of the previous hike in 2014, mainly because the government would implement various measures to smooth out demand prior to and after the hike.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

942

one of these members added that a_ clear increase was observed in the number of new job openings in manufacturing, which had been lagging behind.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

596

many members expressed the view that the sovereign debt problems in europe -- which were spreading to large-scale economies such as spain and italy -- had caused a deterioration in the funding conditions of european financial institutions, and therefore concerns over the european financial system as a whole were intensifying further.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

604

as for the outlook, members agreed that japan's economy was likely to evolve broadly in line with the projection presented in the april outlook report.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,007

217

in the money market, interest rates on both overnight and term instruments had been decreasing with the negative interest rate coming into effect, and had been at around or slightly below 0 percent.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

395

business fixed investment was projected to continue to see a moderate increase for the time being on the back of the high level of corporate profits.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

997

the nikkei 225 stock average had risen at one time, mainly as a reflection of the yen's depreciation, and temporarily exceeded the 18,000 yen level.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

475

a few members, however, were of the opinion that the growth in summer bonus payments was likely to be relatively small reflecting the leveling-off of corporate profits.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

203

a different member pointed out that, as often happens at the beginning of the first and second halves of the fiscal year, revisions in services prices had been confirmed in april 2024, the beginning of the fiscal year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

850

real exports posted a solid increase in the january-march quarter from the previous quarter, after exhibiting high growth throughout the second half of 2007.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

963

some members, referring to varied market speculation about the bank's conduct of monetary policy, said that monetary policy should be conducted in light of its objective to achieve sustainable economic growth with price stability.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

982

they were expected to continue to be essentially flat for the time being and increase moderately thereafter, mainly reflecting a pick-up in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

445

this member continued that the authorities should take measures with this point in mind.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,015

507

these members continued that japan's export environment had started to improve, as shown by, for example, the slight improvement in japanese manufacturers' forecasts of future overseas supply-demand conditions for products in the march _tankan, against the background that_ orders from china and the nies had increased and there had been progress in adjustments of japanese firms' overseas inventories.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,009

645

(1) on january 22, 2018, the government submitted the budget for fiscal 2018 and the supplementary budget for fiscal 2017 to the diet.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,018

196

by making such policy efforts in a seamless manner, the government would do its utmost to help the economy overcome deflation and achieve a self-sustaining recovery.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,010

708

private consumption had increased clearly, supported by the rising trend in compensation of employees, as the effects of the past low crude oil prices and high stock prices remained.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

785

and second, in the united states, following the avoidance of the fiscal cliff at the beginning of 2013, a bill to temporarily suspend the federal debt ceiling had been passed.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

423

however, many members expressed the view that, due partly to the effects of fiscal austerity, severe conditions continued in some peripheral countries that were facing fiscal problems, and disparities between these peripheral countries and core countries were becoming noticeable.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

683

moreover, a different member said that it was desirable for the bank to discontinue the system in which the eligible counterparties could borrow an amount equivalent to twice as much as the net increase in their amount outstanding of loans.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

415

one member said that, given the results of this year's annual spring labor-management wage negotiations to date, achievement of the price stability target seemed to have come in sight to some extent, mainly due to price rises accompanying wage increases.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

895

as for prices, members shared the recognition that the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi (all items less fresh food) was at around 0 percent, mainly affected by the past decline in crude oil prices, and that in the cpi (all items less fresh food and energy) was at around 0.5 percent, while inflation expectations had weakened somewhat.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

693

one member pointed out that, if side effects materialized as a result of additional easing, it was necessary to consider methods to mitigate them.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

993

exports of motor vehicles and their related goods -- due in part to the effects of developments in foreign exchange rates -- had resumed an uptrend, assisted by a pick-up in those to china -- which had seen a significant drop -- while those to the united states and other regions had been steady.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

781

regarding risks to developments in overseas economies, members shared the recognition that uncertainties remained high, including those over u.s. economic policy, negotiations on the united kingdom's exit from the eu, and geopolitical risks.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

400

another member noted the possibility that downward pressure on scheduled cash earnings would remain, reflecting the rising trend in the ratio of part-time workers.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

132

members made an assessment in terms of the first perspective; that is, they assessed the baseline scenario of the outlook for economic activity and prices considered to be the most likely through fiscal 2012.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

55

members shared the view that the pace of growth in the nies and the asean economies was likely to gradually rise since exports were expected to continue picking up, particularly those to europe and the united states, on the back of recovery in advanced economies.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

981

private consumption continued to be on an increasing trend, albeit with a somewhat clearer slowing of the pace of increase.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

847

as for prices, members said that the three-month rate of change in the cgpi had become negative and the cgpi was likely to continue decreasing for the time being, mainly due to the fall in commodity prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

193

some members pointed out that the year-on-year rate of increase in the cpi might slow to around 0 percent in the immediate future, due to the effects of the decline in crude oil prices, but what should be considered in conducting monetary policy was the underlying trend in inflation, and there was no change in this trend.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,015

696

some members said that, while indicators related to services consumption continued to increase, some sluggishness was being observed in indicators related to retail sales and consumer sentiment.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

431

one member said that firms' attitude toward fixed investment was likely to improve further as exports would start increasing, and this would enhance monetary easing effects on business fixed investment.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

620

with regard to the baseline scenario for prices, many members expressed the view that there was considerable uncertainty, mainly in developments in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, and risks on the price front were skewed to the downside, although a few members expressed the recognition that these risks could be assessed as being largely balanced.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

660

regarding the outlook, although such consumption was expected to be affected by price rises, it was projected to keep increasing moderately with nominal employee income continuing to improve, and partly supported by household savings that had accumulated as a result of pandemic-related restrictions.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

388

the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi (excluding fresh food, on a nationwide basis) had been around zero percent, mainly due to the past drop in crude oil prices.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

177

members discussed what level the loan rate for the complementary lending facility should be.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

859