Agree with the point that Trudeau will have that $4 Billion frittered away in short order.

Disagree that the money should go back to new Canadian home owners.  It can further exacerbate the affordability issue by subsidizing new market entrants, who could in turn increase leverage (more than they would have) and bid up prices even higher.  This appears to have been the effect from federal or provincial first-time homebuyer programs.

There is still tail risk on the Canadian mortgage market, especially if the recent Toronto correction deepens or if there is contagion.  That $4 Billion, if not held in reserves, could end up back at the CMHC as a bailout.