This very good analysis has one weakness -- it assumes that ANC members will follow provincial leaders like medieval peasants followed their lord.  
Which may be true.  But we are in 2017, with the peasants using smartphones  to check what deal the other lord (or should that be induna as we are in KZN) is offering, so things might be a little bit more volatile. Especially with tightened financial circumstances, the Guptas are now in Dubai, meaning the deals are harder to land.