While polling numbers show Governor Ige is vulnerable in the abstract, there is a saying in politics, "You can't beat somebody with nobody.” So which politicians might be able to mount a serious challenge against him? The LG is running for Maui mayor. None of the four county mayors can do it. Not Caldwell, hurt by the disasters of Rail. Not Bernard Cravalho of Kauai, though he is making sounds. Not the Speaker of the House, not the Senate President. In fact, no state legislator is making sounds, though senators Green, Espero and Tokuda are looking at LG.

If she were to run, Congresswoman Hanabusa is rumored to have the backing of the Ariyoshi and Team Inouye groups, and some of the unions. Among voters, some opposition to Ige comes from an uninformed bias against AJA Democrats, as well as an "anti-incumbent" mood. In a race where Hanabusa would be seen as "the Machine candidate," it is not clear voters would support her against  the more independent Ige. It would be a tough race.