The trap I constantly see observers falling into is attempting to assess Trump's strategic thinking in various circumstances.  There is one possibility that often goes overlooked: He doesn't have one.  The hazards of inaccurately projecting meaning onto his behavior has three obvious dangers: 

One is that there is a tendency to cut him some critical slack when his actions are perceived as the product of deliberate & careful thought.

The second is that once meaning is projected onto his actions, then that gets ensconced as truth and used for further deeper & even more inaccurate interpretations.

Finally, the third is that it blinds analysts to the possibility that Trump's inscrutable methods are actually as idiotic as they seem at first glance.