I'll agree it isn't a fact until it's pumping ~ thank you for catching my overstatement.  Let's say 75% chance because Armstrong, Caelus and Conoco-Phillips have all predicted having oil in the pipeline in those years. It appears that the only thing that could stop it would be the federal government or our state government.  That would be the impediment I most distrust.  It appears that you have not really looked at the numbers, which is something I've been doing since I decided I should research this so that I could document it.  My first articles in the Frontiersman and People's Press began coming out in 2015.  But the better test of it is that the Alaska Dispatch has refused to publish anything that does not toe your line.