So, a positive return of 2.1 % = an increase of 4 Billion in unfunded liabilities.  Now imagine two or three years of a negative return.  The unfunded liability could increase 6 to 10 Billion per year.  If we had three bad years in a row with negative returns, we could see the unfunded liability approach a total of 50 Billion dollars.  No one has a crystal ball to predict investment returns, but a positive return of 7.5% sure seems unrealistic right now with the stock market down huge amounts since the first of the year.  I think Oregon is in huge trouble.