People wait that long for cabs on New Year's Eve in places where they don't limit the number of cabs. Shortly before the 515 Club closed, I wasn't drinking, but rather just walking down 4th Avenue at closing time, when I saw a group I knew visiting from the North Slope outside the 515, which included one of my favorite elders. I decided to stay with them while they waited for a cab. This was midweek, not on a Friday or Saturday night, and was also in May, typically one of the slowest times of the year in the cab business. It was 45 minutes before the first cab even showed up. See my previous comment about how the Muni's regulatory agenda the past 2+ decades replaced cab drivers with folks who happen to drive cab.  Those folks are going to first go after the low-hanging fruit, which at that time of day would be the airport, Chilkoot's, etc..  There are a few drivers dedicated to serving the outskirts, but imagine trying to get a cab from a place like JJ's Lounge at closing time.