I'm sure Ibbitson has heard the Tories are choosing a new leader.  

And never did he say that the new leader must be a carbon copy of the former leader.

He simply presented his interesting analysis of what PM Harper might be thinking and whom he might be leaning towards in the choice of his successor.

And Ibbitson is right that the former PM will value highly the ability to unite the party and the country and the ability to be elected nationally.

I happen to agree that his possible preferences of O'Toole, Scheer and Bernier belong in the top tier.  And I would also add Raitt and Chong who would be better able to attract middle of the road voters and who have the most impressive back stories as the anti-Trudeaus who earned their credibility and successes themselves rather than inheriting them.

As for learning from their mistakes, I daresay that if they select a leader who returns them to power for a decade and provides outstanding leadership as Harper did, they'll be delighted.