John Havelock - Spot on analysis.  As you note, for Mark Begich to win Democratic leadership would have to act fast and press hard with a late, well funded write in ad campaign.  If Margaret Stock were to encourage her supporters to vote for Begich, his chances would improve further.  Ray Metcalfe likely won't pull a lot of votes.  (Also, spelling Begich on a write in ballot is easier than spelling Murkowski.)  In a 5 way or 4 way race, methinks Begich could pull off a win over far right-Tea Party and moderate Republican opponents.