So we should just blindly use historical trends to predict the future?  The Canadian dollar is up from 72.5 cents to 82 cents in the past 4 months.  Based on your logic to use historical trends, we should hit 92 cents by January 2018 and par by May 2018.  To take that further, the Canadian dollar should be worth more than Euros by the end of 2018 and the most valuable currency in the world by the end of 2019.  Is using historical trends without applying current market conditions, logic and common sense the most ignorant thing anyone can do?  YES.