As unpopular as it is with the press and many academics, momentum remains the best way to time markets. Momentum works for two reasons, first, it fits with investor and trader behavior.  Second, it capitalizes on one of the weaknesses of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, namely that all the actors have all the information they need.  In our complex, feedback loop based world, no one has the answers.  This creates trends.

Unfortunately for most investors, the best way to capitalize on momentum includes going short, trading in multiple markets and moving positions daily.

No one knows when the bull market will end, when bonds will start to move meaningfully up, when oil will crash and gold spike, but 200 years of research says momentum is the best way to play.