It's always good to hear different views on the economy.  But all Larry's talk about statistics is useless when trying to figure out the future.  Statistics are useful when working with large numbers of things (like years) but they cannot deal with individual events (like one year) any better than a coin flip.  I've seen a few articles in the past about how timing the market is a bad strategy and I agree with that approach.  Better to look for companies with good management teams and a good future.  Then buy some shares and become a long term owner.