Tang writes:” In the 2016 budget, Morneau committed the government to reducing the federal debt to-GDP ratio to 31.0 per cent in 2020-21, while the budget office predicts that ratio will actually fall to 29 per cent by that date.”Not sure why the contrast is made with the 2016 budget. In the Fall Economic Statement , Morneau predicted the ratio will fall to 29.5 per cent in 2020-21. Part of the difference in the forecasts comes from the PBO assuming higher GDP inflation (2.1%) in 2021 than the FES does (1.9%).