You're forgetting the demographics of Tier One recipients.  

How many (or their spouses, because the widower/widow will get the benefit after the Tier One recipient dies) are dying each year?  What are the current ages of vested Tier One's?  

How many, like me, vested in PERS as a second job at a much older age than you are positing?  I vested in 1998 so I'm Tier Two, but you need to account for some of your 34,000 being in that category.  They may retire earlier or later than you think, too.

Lot's of variables there!

Question:

Do you really want to deny widows the benefits earned by their dead husbands because it is inconvenient for you  to pay your debts?  If they then have nothing but Social Security is that 'just too bad'?

That is one of those moral questions being ignored in this debate, of course.   

The $200 thousand people are few; the majority are your neighbors with a lot less coming from PERS who are relying on the word of Legislators and Governors long out of office.