Not much help.  Your main points are pretty obvious and have merit.  But tell me what will happen to the house value of someone in Fairbanks.  What will be the likely cost of UA tuition in 5 years.  How many businesses will go bankrupt?  Those weakest that you say will perish...are you one of them?  Am I?  Obviously these are impossible to predict with certainty, but I think there are models that could help.

The budget crisis isn't only about the state budget deficit.  It's also the impacts from losing 10,000 plus good-paying jobs from the state, the imposition of taxes, reduction of PFD, etc.  Some of these can be mitigated by resetting our oil tax structure, but not all of them.  Oil is still $50/bbl and we can't control that.