While I'd agree that straw polls don't mean a lot, I disagree that what happens 15 months out isn't important.  In some ways that's how R's have been losing some big statewide races in recent years (like by nominating Maes and Glenn).  They've failed in the early stages of nomination races to consolidate the field and steer the nomination toward 1 or 2 main moderate candidates.  They came close last year in the Senate race (which should have been a 2-way primary between Glenn and Graham, when I think Graham would have won and probably beaten Bennett in November), before a damn judge threw out the rules for ballot petitions.