Exit interviews do not confirm your analysis.  You left out one important piece.  Comey motivated a lot more Trump leaning people to come and actually vote in the rust belt.  HRC won the popular vote by over 2 million votes which the GOP types want to ignore.  The GOP would do well to remember Trump did not win the popular and has no real mandate.  Most of the rest of your observations I do totally agree with, but then HRC was not my first choice.