Whether Bush would have won the recount depends on the standard being used to count the votes.  It also depends on whether they undertook a statewide recount (Gore usually wins) or just the counties that Gore wanted recounted (Bush wins). They were planning to undertake me a statewide recount when the Supreme Court halted it.

A much bigger factor was the purge of voting roles which resulted in thousands of likely Gore voters being thrown off the voting roles because of a partial name match with a felon. Also the networks called the state for Gore even though polls in the panhandle (mostly Bush voters) were still open which lowered Bush's vote totals there. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida