A number of technical commentators out there agree with the pessimistic view which you state here.  Physicist Joe Romm has been insisting for years that we're already "stuffed" and headed for 1,000 ppm atmospheric CO2 by the end of the century.  A recent screed by Eugene's own Prof. (?) Tom G. moans to a similar tune.  I guess if they're right, we may as well 'party down like it's 1999!', because it's already too late to change course.  :-/

On the other hand, more pragmatic souls in the Stanford Dept. of Engineering have outlined a state-by-state energy blueprint, showing how we might largely wean ourselves from fossil fuels over the next few decades with technology already in hand, or soon to mature.  I tend to favor their more cautiously optimistic outlook.