Here are 2 counters to the idea that more people will sign up.   The first one is that the feds are probably not going to advertise it.   To illustrate this, it is getting close to sign up time, and have you seen an ad about it?  The second one is that the mandate is not going to be enforced.  I  do not remember having to do any paperwork on it at the beginning of the year and there probably will not be any for next year.  Those two things help drive up the signups.   Rates of the insured may actually drop in this state because of the audit performed earlier this year.