This analysis of the stock is plain wrong.  Distressed sellers only come out unscathed in rare situations when there are no extraordinary circumstances. 

No one is denying that the real estate market is hot now and so currently delinquencies are low.

But this book needs to trade at only a 7% discount to wipe out the equity in HC, assuming the book is 14 times levered as reported.

And it will trade at a 7% discount because:

1. HC is a distressed seller 
2. there is too much product fort he market to take over easily
3. the future delinquencies on recent vintage products could go up
4. No one knows the book
5. you need a mortgage servicer big enough to manage it
6. you may need a special servicer to deal with delinquencies
7. you do not know the quality of the underwriting, some brokers falsified loans, were there others
8. there is legal liability from lender groups
9. there is reputational risk in putting people out of their homes

Classic  value analysis does not work here.