The first thing to remember is we are not the States, and the way we elect our leader is entirely different. Assuming that the voting system stays the same , O'Leary would have to attract someplace in the neighbourhood of 39% support for the Conservatives, and few crossovers from other parties. It may come as a shock to O'Leary and to those who see him as a contender, that not everyone watches Shark Tank or watched Dragon's Den when he was on, and is unknown as a politician. Canadian problems are not the problems that so riled the american voter. We just went through an election where the winner promised a whole new way of doing politics. Those that supported Trudeau will not easily be convinced to abandon him so early. Conservatives are not necessarily looking for a Trump figure regardless of what the media and the left states. Nor do they see a Trump like figure galvanizing the nation. It makes for good coverage, but we do not need a buffoon in Canadian politics.