It's not a fabricated conviction, but an actual one as lot of people actually do think that way.  Including myself.  Where your analysis differs from mine is that I don't see all things flowing from Trump.  Fortunately, he has some strong people on the military side, like Mattis and Tillerson, but you wonder how long they can last with the loose cannon and his irregular tweets.  So I'd modify your last sentence to read, "With a guy like Trump, you have to watch what he says, and hopefully, saner heads will bring him back to sanity so that it doesn't become what the US does."