We won't hit bottom until the $60 billion Permanent Fund is spent dry.  The legislature will find a way to tap the Permanent Fund and start siphoning money out.  Money from the Fund will fund state projects in the future.  When the Permanent fund balance hits zero, that's when the lights will go out in Alaska.  That's the absolute bottom.  Maybe 15 years from now.  Alaska has too few people, distributed too thinly ... there is no way the post Permanent Fund Alaska will resemble Alaska today.  Most Bush Alaska villages will be abandoned.  Population will drop from 700,000 to maybe 200,000.  Cost of living in Alaska will be unaffordable to most due to the smaller economy of scale.  The huge migration out of Alaska will be fodder for history books, and economics text books with case studies of state economies that imploded due to poor management.