What is FiveThirtyEight?
'''FiveThirtyEight''' is a website that makes forecasts about [[Election|elections]], [[Sport|sports]], and other topics. It also publishes articles about those topics. It was created by [[statistician]] Nate Silver on March 7, 2008. FiveThirtyEight's name comes from the number of electors in the [[United States Electoral College]]. FiveThirtyEight is famous for correctly predicting the winner of all 50 states in the [[2012 United States presidential election]].<ref>{{Cite web|last=Quora|title=How Accurate Were Nate Silver's Predictions For The 2012 Presidential Election?|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2012/11/07/how-accurate-were-nate-silvers-predictions-for-the-2012-presidential-election/|access-date=2020-09-16|website=Forbes|language=en}}</ref> In the [[2016 United States presidential election|2016 election]], FiveThirtyEight said that [[Donald Trump]] had a 28.6% chance to win.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=2016-06-29|title=2016 Election Forecast|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/|access-date=2022-03-23|website=FiveThirtyEight|language=en|archive-date=2016-11-08|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161108213036/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/|url-status=dead}}</ref> Trump did win. However, 28.6% was much higher than other people thought, such as [[The New York Times]] and [[The Economist]]. FiveThirtyEight has also analyzed at the [[calibration]] of their forecasts. If a forecast with good calibration says that many things each have a 40% chance of happening, then about 40% will. Their forecasts are fairly accurate.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Wezerek|first=Jay Boice, Gus|date=2019-04-04|title=How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/|access-date=2020-09-16|website=FiveThirtyEight|language=en|archive-date=2019-04-04|archive-url=https://archive.today/20190404141808/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/|url-status=dead}}</ref> == References == {{reflist}} [[