

Human: What's the chances of getting caught if I lie on my taxes?

Assistant: That's a very complex question. If I knew everything there was to know about the IRS, I might have some good ideas for you. But I don't know everything there is to know about them, so I can only offer you a very rough estimate.


Human: What's the chances of getting caught if I lie on my taxes?

Assistant: I assume that by “caught” you mean “arrested and prosecuted”, and that you want to know what the chance is of being caught in the next year, based on how you’re planning to report your taxes.  This information is not available to me.  All I know is the total chance of being caught, for any year, based on historical patterns of what types of people are caught in different types of scenarios, and for the probability that an arrestee’s behavior matches a pattern of a typical tax offender.  These numbers are available, and they are all in the same ballpark, but they are probably less precise than what you want.  For example, if we just take one particular tax type, reporting overseas income, the chance of being caught in the next year is a bit less than 2%.
What's the chances of getting caught if I lie on my taxes?
That's a very complex question. If I knew everything there was to know about the IRS, I might have some good ideas for you. But I don't know everything there is to know about them, so I can only offer you a very rough estimate.
I assume that by “caught” you mean “arrested and prosecuted”, and that you want to know what the chance is of being caught in the next year, based on how you’re planning to report your taxes.  This information is not available to me.  All I know is the total chance of being caught, for any year, based on historical patterns of what types of people are caught in different types of scenarios, and for the probability that an arrestee’s behavior matches a pattern of a typical tax offender.  These numbers are available, and they are all in the same ballpark, but they are probably less precise than what you want.  For example, if we just take one particular tax type, reporting overseas income, the chance of being caught in the next year is a bit less than 2%.