text: # Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 01:14 AM
  brentvos
  Statistical probility, bayes' theorem
  Hi,
  
  I am looking for a solution to the following problem, which according to the question can be solved using bayes' theorem:
  
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Everytime 11 events in a row are negative, the 12th is positive with a 100% chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  What is the expected amount of positive events, and how did you reach this conclusion?
  
  My approach was invalid because it was to simplified, yet the end result was close to the actual answer (which still hasn't been provided)
  (1000-1000/12)*0.17+1000/12=239.17
  
  Does anyone have a solution?
  Edit: recieved a hint: the chance that the event will be negative 11 times in a row is 12.69%. This implies that that number has something to do with it, otherwise the tip would not have been given
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 03:10 AM
  Plato
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Quote:
  
  Originally Posted by brentvos
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Every 12th event will be positive regardless of chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  
  That is simply a series of statements.
  What is the question?
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 03:36 AM
  brentvos
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  The question is:
  
  What's the amount of positive events given the conditions, and how did you come to that conclusion.
  
  Thanks for the help!
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 04:09 AM
  Soroban
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Hello, brentvos!
  
  Quote:
  
  I am looking for a solution to the following problem which,
  according to the question, can be solved using Bayes' Theorem.
  
  I don't understand the hint; this is not conditonal probability.
  
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Every 12th event will be positive regardless of chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  Find the expected number of positive events.
  
  My approach was invalid because it was too simplified, .
  How do you know this?
  yet the end result was close to the actual answer .
  And how do you know this
  . . (which still hasn't been provided). . . . . . . . . . .
  if you don't know the answer?
  
  Every 12th event will be positive. .It will be positive.$\displaystyle \left[\frac{1000}{12}\right] = 83$ times.
  
  For the other 917 events, it will be positive 17% of the time.
  . . $\displaystyle 0.17 \times 917 \,=\,155.89$ expected positive events.
  
  Therefore, the expectation is: .$\displaystyle 83 + 155.89 \:=\:238.89$ positive events.
  
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 04:16 AM
  brentvos
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  The question giver told us it had something to do with Bayes' theorem. I didn't understand the hint either, but hoped one of you would.
  
  As for your answer, except for different decimals, I had the same answer as you did. This was incorrect, as told by the question giver.
  
  He gave another tip, saying that the possibility of not having a positive event 11 times in a row is 12.9% thereby declaring that it has something to do with the given statement.
  
  I'll edit the original post to include this
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 04:44 AM
  Plato
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Quote:
  
  Originally Posted by brentvos
  The question giver told us it had something to do with Bayes' theorem. I didn't understand the hint either, but hoped one of you would.
  As for your answer, except for different decimals, I had the same answer as you did. This was incorrect, as told by the question giver.
  He gave another tip, saying that the possibility of not having a positive event 11 times in a row is 12.9% thereby declaring that it has something to do with the given statement.
  
  Well I agree with Soroban's answer.
  Perhaps we all are misreading the intended question.
  But rather I suspect that this a case in which the author has a very specific method in mind. So for someone not privy to his/her style any effort at a solution would simply guessing.
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 05:03 AM
  brentvos
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Ah I've found the mistake.
  
  I copied it wrong.
  
  I changed OP, but the change is:
  
  Every time 11 events in a row have been resulted negative, the 12th is positive.
  (the first 11 are negative, the 12th therefore is positive, regardless of any previous chance)
  
  Sorry for the mistake, would you be so kind to look at it again?
  • Dec 28th 2011, 06:44 AM
  awkward
  Re: Statistical probility, bayes' theorem
  Quote:
  
  Originally Posted by brentvos
  Hi,
  
  I am looking for a solution to the following problem, which according to the question can be solved using bayes' theorem:
  
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Everytime 11 events in a row are negative, the 12th is positive with a 100% chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  What is the expected amount of positive events, and how did you reach this conclusion?
  
  My approach was invalid because it was to simplified, yet the end result was close to the actual answer (which still hasn't been provided)
  (1000-1000/12)*0.17+1000/12=239.17
  $\displaystyle 11 \times 0.17 + 989 \times [0.83^{11} + (1 - 0.83^{11}) * 0.17]$
explanation: The text extract is a forum post discussing a probability problem that involves Bayes' theorem. The problem is about calculating the expected number of positive events in 1000 trials, given specific conditions. The post includes a question and some attempts at solving it, along with hints provided by the question giver.
distilabel_metadata.content: Evaluate the user given text extract and determine if it contains a math question and optionally and answer to this question.
  
  Output rules:
  
  1. Briefly describe the document and mention if it contains a question or a question and answer.
  2. Finalize the output with: Label: no-question,question,question-and-answer,multiple-question,multiple-question-and-answer
distilabel_metadata.role: system
distilabel_metadata.content: # Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 01:14 AM
  brentvos
  Statistical probility, bayes' theorem
  Hi,
  
  I am looking for a solution to the following problem, which according to the question can be solved using bayes' theorem:
  
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Everytime 11 events in a row are negative, the 12th is positive with a 100% chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  What is the expected amount of positive events, and how did you reach this conclusion?
  
  My approach was invalid because it was to simplified, yet the end result was close to the actual answer (which still hasn't been provided)
  (1000-1000/12)*0.17+1000/12=239.17
  
  Does anyone have a solution?
  Edit: recieved a hint: the chance that the event will be negative 11 times in a row is 12.69%. This implies that that number has something to do with it, otherwise the tip would not have been given
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 03:10 AM
  Plato
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Quote:
  
  Originally Posted by brentvos
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Every 12th event will be positive regardless of chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  
  That is simply a series of statements.
  What is the question?
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 03:36 AM
  brentvos
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  The question is:
  
  What's the amount of positive events given the conditions, and how did you come to that conclusion.
  
  Thanks for the help!
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 04:09 AM
  Soroban
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Hello, brentvos!
  
  Quote:
  
  I am looking for a solution to the following problem which,
  according to the question, can be solved using Bayes' Theorem.
  
  I don't understand the hint; this is not conditonal probability.
  
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Every 12th event will be positive regardless of chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  Find the expected number of positive events.
  
  My approach was invalid because it was too simplified, .
  How do you know this?
  yet the end result was close to the actual answer .
  And how do you know this
  . . (which still hasn't been provided). . . . . . . . . . .
  if you don't know the answer?
  
  Every 12th event will be positive. .It will be positive.$\displaystyle \left[\frac{1000}{12}\right] = 83$ times.
  
  For the other 917 events, it will be positive 17% of the time.
  . . $\displaystyle 0.17 \times 917 \,=\,155.89$ expected positive events.
  
  Therefore, the expectation is: .$\displaystyle 83 + 155.89 \:=\:238.89$ positive events.
  
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 04:16 AM
  brentvos
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  The question giver told us it had something to do with Bayes' theorem. I didn't understand the hint either, but hoped one of you would.
  
  As for your answer, except for different decimals, I had the same answer as you did. This was incorrect, as told by the question giver.
  
  He gave another tip, saying that the possibility of not having a positive event 11 times in a row is 12.9% thereby declaring that it has something to do with the given statement.
  
  I'll edit the original post to include this
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 04:44 AM
  Plato
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Quote:
  
  Originally Posted by brentvos
  The question giver told us it had something to do with Bayes' theorem. I didn't understand the hint either, but hoped one of you would.
  As for your answer, except for different decimals, I had the same answer as you did. This was incorrect, as told by the question giver.
  He gave another tip, saying that the possibility of not having a positive event 11 times in a row is 12.9% thereby declaring that it has something to do with the given statement.
  
  Well I agree with Soroban's answer.
  Perhaps we all are misreading the intended question.
  But rather I suspect that this a case in which the author has a very specific method in mind. So for someone not privy to his/her style any effort at a solution would simply guessing.
  • Dec 22nd 2011, 05:03 AM
  brentvos
  Re: Statistical probility, baye's theorem
  Ah I've found the mistake.
  
  I copied it wrong.
  
  I changed OP, but the change is:
  
  Every time 11 events in a row have been resulted negative, the 12th is positive.
  (the first 11 are negative, the 12th therefore is positive, regardless of any previous chance)
  
  Sorry for the mistake, would you be so kind to look at it again?
  • Dec 28th 2011, 06:44 AM
  awkward
  Re: Statistical probility, bayes' theorem
  Quote:
  
  Originally Posted by brentvos
  Hi,
  
  I am looking for a solution to the following problem, which according to the question can be solved using bayes' theorem:
  
  The same event occurs a 1000 times
  Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%
  Everytime 11 events in a row are negative, the 12th is positive with a 100% chance.
  There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules
  What is the expected amount of positive events, and how did you reach this conclusion?
  
  My approach was invalid because it was to simplified, yet the end result was close to the actual answer (which still hasn't been provided)
  (1000-1000/12)*0.17+1000/12=239.17
  $\displaystyle 11 \times 0.17 + 989 \times [0.83^{11} + (1 - 0.83^{11}) * 0.17]$
distilabel_metadata.role: user
distilabel_metadata.raw_output_q_a_detector_0: The text extract is a forum post discussing a probability problem that involves Bayes' theorem. The problem is about calculating the expected number of positive events in 1000 trials, given specific conditions. The post includes a question and some attempts at solving it, along with hints provided by the question giver.
  
  Label: question-and-answer