Statistical modelling of maximum annual rainfall in the Abidjan district (southern Ivory Coast)
The extreme values of hydroclimatic variables are of particular interest when speaking in terms of risk. The estimation of the recurrence of extreme rainfall provides essential elements for the construction of infrastructures such as dykes, sewage works, etc., in order to effectively protect the population and their property. The aim of this article is to find a theoretical law that can show a good representation of the distribution function of the annual maximum daily rainfall for the prevention of flood risks in the Abidjan district in the south of Ivory Coast. The data used cover the period from 1961 to 2014. Distribution laws used in the design of hydraulic structures have been retained in this analysis: the law of Weibull, the law of Gumbel and the lognormal law. They were adjusted to the maximum annual rainfall and the parameters were estimated in a specific way. The empirical frequencies were calculated from the Hazen relation. The parameters of the different laws were determined by the weighted moment method. Adjustment was assessed using graphic representation and χ2 test. Two criteria (Akaike criterion and Bayesian criterion) were used to select the best model. The different laws generally showed a good fit with the series of annual maximum daily rains of the Port-Bouët station (Abidjan). However, the law that best adjusted the annual maximum daily rainfall of the Port-Bouët station (Abidjan) was the law of Gumbel. It is therefore recommended to work with the distribution of Gumbel in any design study of hydraulic structures in general and in the field of storm drainage works especially in the district of Abidjan.