Ripe Moments to End a Conflict: An Analysis of Kosovo and North Macedonia Cases
At the center of academic and political debates, Zartman’s concept of maturity has been the subject of intense criticism. This contribution addresses its shortcomings and suggests a refinement of the model for a more nuanced application in order to understand the determinants of the success of the mediation and the role that the mediator can play in obtaining it. The usefulness of Zartman’s theory is evaluated by comparing two negotiation processes in different phases of the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia, the failure of the Rambouillet talks (1999) and the Ahtisaari mediation (2006-2007), and the success of the Prespa agreement, compared to previous stalemates in the case of the conflict between North Macedonia and Greece. This paper concludes that the revised version of the concept of maturity remains a useful means of analyzing the potential for peace and explaining the failure or success of international mediation.