Floods regional modeling of the Cris watershed : classical regional and reference models approach
When local information on streamflows is insufficient for estimating flood quantiles, a Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) is usually carried out. Once homogeneous hydrological regions are defined, methods such as the "Index-Flood" method can be applied. In most cases, the variable understudy is the maximum peak flood (instantaneous or mean daily value, depending available data). However, the severity of a flood is not only defined by its peak, but also by its volume and duration. For this reason, Cemagref has developed for several years an approach which, in addition to the classic flood/frequency relationship, takes into account the notion of duration: the flood-duration-frequency approach (QdF). In a similar manner to the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis, averaged discharges are computed over different fixed durations d. For each duration, a frequency distribution of maximum averaged discharges is studied. Finally, a continuous formulation is fitted, as a function of the return period (T) and the duration (d) over which discharges have been averaged. Rare quantiles are determined using rainfall frequency information, according the so-called "GRADEX" method ("aesthetic" version). The regionalization of the QdF approach leaded to define three sets of dimensionless QdF curves. The originality of the method is that each set was fitted to one unique basin, located in France, and corresponding to a distinct hydrological regime. A choice criterion, involving maximal rainfall distributions, determines which reference basin has to be considered. In this way, the QdF regionalization differs from the classic concepts mentioned in the first paragraph. The classic approach takes into account the whole streamflow-rainfall information available on a homogeneous hydrological region, while the QdF regionalization developed at Cemagref considers the streamflow-rainfall information available on the three French reference basins. The aim of this research is to apply classical regional concepts (homogeneous regions) to the QdF approach and to compare results with thus obtained using the three French reference basins. One interest of the study is that it has been conducted in Romania, ie, outside the area where the three reference basins are located. The case study is carried out on the Cris river sub-catchments which cover an area of about 14 300 km2, in the west of Romania. This regionalization concerns 78 sub-catchments having about thirty years of streamflow measurements (daily flow and instantaneous flood peaks). For validation purpose, two basin sets are constituted: a calibration set (54 basins) and a validation set (24 basins). Furthermore, maximal rainfalls over 1 day to 10 days are available for these basins, from 92 rain-gauge stations. First, regional QdF curves are deduced according the definition of homogeneous regions. Three regions are defined, corresponding to the three main sub-catchments of the Cris basins. After different tests, it is shown that the whole Cris basin can be considered as a unique homogeneous region. Then, the regionalization involving the three French reference basins is carried out. In both cases, methods are applied with the exponential law adjusted on peak over threshold values, for small return periods. Durations are ranging from 1 day to 10 days, according to the flood dynamic of the studied basins. For long return periods, both approaches use the GRADEX method, which extrapolates discharge distributions according to the rainfall distributions. Whatever the regional approach used, two descriptors have to be estimated for each target site, in order to unscale the dimensionless regional QdF curves. Theses two descriptors are the 10-year-return-period peak flood Q10 and a flood characteristic duration D. In order to compare the uncertainty of the two approaches, D and Q10 are local values, deduced from observations. The results presented shows a good validity of the regional model fitted to the whole Cris basin. This indicates that this region is quite homogeneous. Concerning the reference models, their choice criterion does not appear to be pertinent for small return periods, but becomes relevant for high return periods. In this case, estimations are comparable to thus provided using the whole regional information available on the Cris basin. This result is mainly due to the extrapolation method used. It is related to the GRADEX method and takes into account the local information about rainfall gradex, as it is often done in France. One point to be noticed is that these reference models have not been updated since they have been established in 1992. Despite that, the Cris basin example shows their operational ability for estimating flood quantiles of duration d (0 < d(day) < 10) and return period T (5 < T(year) < 1000). From an operational point of view, the three reference basins can be a valuable option. Indeed, a regional analysis is sometime difficult to carry out: data not available or too costly, time available for the study to short, etc. On the other hand, the three reference basins method is easier to apply and requires less data. However, uncertainties and hypothesis of the method should be kept in mind. In particular, we should be aware that high return period quantiles are given according the GRADEX method, ie using the frequency rainfall information. Consequently, the hypothesis of this method should be respected.