Influence of the Arctic oscillation on the internannual variability of precipitation in the Saint-François river watershed (Québec, Canada) as determined by canonical correlation analysis
The Saint-François River watershed, located on the south shore of the St. Lawrence River (Québec, Canada), covers an area of about 10,000 km2. To detect the climatic factors that influence precipitation in this watershed, we analyzed the succession of dry and wet pluviometric periods by a method of simple moving averages computed over five years. In addition, the relationship between four climatic indices (Arctic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Sea Surface Temperature) and these pluviometric periods was analyzed by means of canonical correlation analysis. We analyzed the pluviometric data measured over a 76-year period (1914-1990) at three stations representative of the watershed’s pluviometric regimes: Sherbrooke, Disraeli and Drummondville. Two types of change in the inter-annual variability of precipitation were detected. The first type of change, occuring circa 1950, concernend the distribution of precipitation throughout the watershed, i.e. spatial change. Before 1950, the succession of dry and wet precipitation periods was asynchronous (opposition of periods), but became synchronous after 1950. The second type of change, corresponding to a change in the pluviometric totals at the stations, i.e. quantitative change, was observed circa 1935 and 1970. There was, therefore, a shift from dry to wet periods or vice versa, prior to and following 1935 and 1970, depending on the station. By accounting for these three dates, we observed the succession of the following dry periods and wet periods. First, before 1950 and between 1914 and 1935, we observed a dry period at the Disraeli and Sherbrooke stations and a wet period at the Drummondville station. Between 1936 and 1950, these periods were reversed: wet periods at Disraeli and Sherbrooke but a dry period at Drummondville. Second, after 1950 and between 1951 and 1970, there was a precipitation deficit at all three stations, which, however, moved into a surplus phase after 1970. The canonical correlation analysis of precipitation levels and the climate indices revealed the following significant facts: 1) prior to and following 1950, precipitation was positively correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices, but this correlation was weaker after 1950 than before; and 2) with respect to the wet and dry periods, the AO index is still positively correlated with the dry periods at the Sherbrooke station.