Parole decision-making relies on known or official odds of re-arrest or re-conviction to assess acceptable rates of official recidivism of parolees. Actual odds of recidivism however are not well researched. The paper uses a sample of undergraduate students to explore what an incoming cohort of future parole agents view as acceptable odds of actual criminal recidivism. The survey presents subjects with specific vignettes and detailed assessments of the case. Findings indicate that most subjects favour parole even though chances of recidivism are estimated to be relatively important (30 to 40%). Deviant decisions (excessively imprudent or excessively prudent) are identified and analysed.