What is the major product obtained on acidification of substituted epoxide? The problem

Source : MS Couhan (problems in organic chemistry . Chapter: Alcohols , phenols and ethers).
My Thoughts

If I proceed along $\ce{path 1}$ , $\ce1a$ is formed . It is unstable due to inductive withdrawing effect of $\ce{C=O}$ neighboring to it. Eventually $\ce2$ is obtained.
However, along $\ce{path 2}$ relatively more stable $\ce{3a}$ (compared to $\ce{1a}$) is formed. $\ce3a$ on ring expansion gives $\ce{3b}$ , leading to $\ce{4}$  ($\ce{3b}$ is relatively unstable compared to $\ce{1b}$).
My question
Which of the two paths should I choose that would lead to a major product ?
The reaction of epoxyketone 1 affords diketone 2 under photochemical and thermal conditions ostensibly through the diradical.1 Boron trifluoride provides the diketone 3 through acyl bond migration and not via alkyl group migration as in your intermediate 3a. I have not located a proton-catalyzed reaction. Unfortunately, diketone 3 was not one of your choices.


1) John R. Williams, George M. Sarkisian, James Quigley, Aaron Hasiuk, and Ruth VanderVennen, J. Org. Chem., 1974, 39, 1028.