Estimating FTP from Strava analysis I bought a power meter. I understand that you should do an FTP test to work out your threshold. But until I have time to do this, could I take a reasonable guess from a recent 35 mile road race?

These are the graphs from Strava, for the estimated distribution, it says average 230W. Is this a good starting point? Or should I go higher or lower, or should I ignore the graphs because Strave is just trying to guess it from speed/hr.







Edit - same course but ridden with power meter:

I raced the same course again, here are the same graphs from strava. It was a much windier day, and my finish time was just under 3 minutes slower than the last race.
You own a power meter - just fit it and go for a hard ride.



For others who don't own a power meter (and lets face it, they're not cheap)

Its a poor data point, but a chap at work has a power meter and he can compare this number with strava's estimated power.  We've compared ~three races and strava's number was high or low by up to 30% 

So your 230W could be as low as 160W or as high as 300W.  Repeated tests will help narrow the range.

Another analogue solution is to ride hard for ~20 minutes to the point you can say words but not a whole sentence.  Then use Strava's estimator on that segment.  Repeat.

If you have a Heart Rate Monitor, try and hold your heart rate at around ~90-95% of your rated maximum, which is about 220-(your age in years)