Will tubeless tires out-perform my Armadillos on my commute? I have a Trek commuter bike (8.4 DS). I bike 5.5 miles to work, and up to 15+ miles home. I’m considering the switch to tubeless. Most of my commute (all but 1.5 miles) is on a well-maintained concrete trail. For that 1.5 miles, I’m in gutters or hugging them on residential and downtown streets. I’ve had no flats in the past year of commuting under those or similar circumstances. But I’ve read and heard that I may get better performance from tubeless tires. I’ve also heard the opposite. My Armadillo (Kevlar™) tires have probably seen around 2000 miles over the past 6 months, and my back tire is going bald (under my weight and the additional 5-to-15 lb. load of my pannier). With that in mind, …


Will I recognize any worthwhile performance advantage from switching?
Do tubeless tires tend to go bald any faster or slower than Kevlar tires?
Could I expect more or less flats with tubeless than with my Kevlar tires?


P.S. In case weather is a consideration, we have little enough snow and rain here in Topeka, Kansas, that I am not worried about weather-related performance issues.
Bald-ness isn't a problem on tires used on roads. In fact, it's favorable. I'd replace the tire once I start getting flats (or a bit before), or seeing canvas. 

The primary advantage of tubeless would let you run lower pressures (since you can't pinch flat a tube if it isn't there) which is useful for running big tires while mountain biking for more grip and comfort, but it won't really make a difference for commuting use (smaller tires at higher pressure). 

The best thing you can do is have a properly inflated tire and buy a durable tire (e.g. the Schwalbe Marathon line) -- low inflation can lead to rim damage and increased wear, while overly high inflation can also lead to damage, less comfort and loss of control. A properly inflated tire shouldn't see many flats in either case (road debris will be the primary cause , which sealant may protect against in the case of a tubeless tire). 

I'd stick with a tubed tire; tubes are relatively cheap and are easy to replace on the side of the road with slightly less mess than inserting a tube in a tubeless system. Note that you'll likely be paying a bit of money to go tubeless overall (e.g. with the Bontrager TLR kits).