Historically, Egypt has had a natural claim to the Nile River. Its economy is so dependent on agriculture that the country has threatened war with any countries upstream intruding on its right. Sudan, a country upstream, has been steadily increasing its control over the Nile, building four dams over the last century. Various pressures could cause Sudan to divert the river for its own use, a reality that would almost certainly throw the entire region into intense conflict. This report evaluates the future of water rights in the Nile River Basin as it relates to several distinct drivers of change.
The aspirational futures model will seek to describe and put several alternative scenarios into context. The aspiration future method focuses on looking at multiple drivers of change which have an agreed upon directional future in the context of four alternative scenarios, Alpha, Beta, Delta 1 and Delta 2.
*Beta Scenario – “Water Warlords"
*Delta1 Scenario – “Some Assembly Required"