In this outstanding must-read lead article, the Guardian cites the latest poll in which 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income.
For me, as a passionate European and Remain supporter, this is overwhelming evidence, especially as the Brexit campaign have no hard economic projections and most importantly no independent risk assessments to support their case.
Despite the evidence, I have found that Brexit supporters are in complete denial. They are totally blind to the evidence and bury their heads in the sand like ostriches. Brexit supporters have their ears tuned to two messages, firstly false claims of patriotism and secondly xenophobia. According to recent polls many of these stubborn, hard-headed people are now frightened for their own economic future.
It is interesting that the right wing Telegraph is leading with a story attacking David Cameron and George Osborne. Expect increasing negative campaigning from the Brexit leaders as their arguments prove increasingly flakey.
As a realist, I cannot see David Cameron reuniting the Conservative Party after the referendum, even if the UK people vote to stay in. I predict a split in the Conservative Party, a vote of no-confidence and an early election – with a strengthened Labour Party – this would not be more of the Third Way of the Blair years but a strongly left-wing UK government.
The Guardian has an interest piece in which former speechwriter and chief strategist, Peter Hyman says a ‘project’ is needed to champion the party’s more centre-left, progressive policies.
Personally, I tend to agree with this argument. The center ground of the political spectrum seems to be a bit out of favor – hopefully it will return soon.