It's the "Moneyball" moment of basketball. There are, at this moment, statistical experts who know things about basketball that go way beyond the box score, and they have the ear of the NBA. I decided to invite a lot of those people to participate in a contest.
The rules are simple: use whatever combination of statistics and hunches you want to pick every series of the playoffs. Each correctly picked series is worth five points. Correctly predicting the number of games is worth two additional points. Winner take all. It's a stat geek vs. stat geek smackdown.
As a little something to raise the stakes, I'm also challenging these stat experts to go head to head against ... my mom. She watched a lot of Blazer basketball in the 1990s. Fear her.
There's more than pride on the line. The winner gets one of the most amazing NBA products you have ever seen. It's a swanky, formal blazer, and it's lined with the jersey of your favorite team. Butter. My mom's going to look great in that.
The Finals. A nervous time not just for the Cavaliers and Spurs, but also for the various stat experts still in position to win the 2007 Stat Geek Smackdown. Ohio State's Justin Kubatko, who runs Basketball-Reference.com is in the lead. And if San Antonio wins in four, five, or six games, the winner's jacket is all his. If San Antonio wins in seven, however, then Kevin Pelton, who works for the SuperSonics' website, will sneak into a tie for the victory.
In the event of a tie, we'll devise some kind of insane tie-breaker. Don't worry, it'll be totally scientific and fair (and it might involve pushups).
David Berri, lead author Wages of Wins, also had a theoretical shot at the victory -- but with steadfast nobility refused to pick against his statistical model, which says San Antonio has this one locked up in five.
By the way, if Ma wins, I owe a hearty apology to Kubatko. I broadcast to the world that Kubatko would pick San Antonio, which made it a mathematical certainty that, if they wanted to win the smackdown, Ma and Berri would pick Cleveland. My gaffe removed all doubt.
Interestingly, you'd have to think San Antonio in six would be one of the most popular picks. San Antonio is the favorite, and with the 2-3-2 format, Game 6 will be their first home game with a theoretical shot at elimination. Yet nobody picked San Antonio in 6.
Also, take a look at the bottom of the standings: my mom had a theoretical shot at emerging from the basement. But Mom and Knickerblogger Mike Kurylo coincidentally both picked Cleveland in six -- so she has no shot, I'm afraid.
Hollinger: As well as Cleveland played the last two games, I think they might only be the fourth-best team San Antonio has faced in the postseason. The LeBron factor doesn't worry me; the only thing that does is the Boobie factor -- as in, if Daniel Gibson is actually a scoring machine, that improves the Cavs' odds considerably.
Kubatko: By the system I am using, San Antonio was the best team in the NBA going into the playoffs (despite Dallas' flashy W-L record), and they have done absolutely nothing to make me think otherwise. By my estimation the Spurs have about an 80-percent chance of winning this series, so an upset, while unlikely, wouldn't be truly shocking. James is going to score his points, but the Spurs can't let players like Gibson, Hughes, Gooden, etc. beat them. If the Spurs let James get his 20-30 points and hold the rest of the Cavs in check, then they should win the series in short order.
Pelton: Statistically, this is a total mismatch. San Antonio has, over the course of the season and the playoffs, clearly been the better team. However, this year has been as good a reminder as any that the better team doesn't always win the series. There are three reasons why I believe the series is closer than it appears on paper: LeBron James, a defense that has been the NBA's best in this postseason, and the emergence of Daniel Gibson. As was the case in the Eastern Conference Finals, I can see the defenses keeping this close and producing several close games. I envision Cleveland winning a couple of those (one at the AT&T Center) and getting a fairly easy win at home. That's enough to force a Game 7, though not necessarily enough to beat the Spurs on their homecourt in that game.
Berri: I am predicting the Spurs will win in five games. The difference between the Spurs and Cavs is similar to the difference between the Spurs and Jazz. In the regular season, the Spurs scored 106.4 points per 100 possessions. The Cavs scored 102.3. On defense, the Spurs allowed 97.3 points per 100 possessions. The Cavs allowed 98.2. So the Spurs are better both on offense and defense.
When we look at the individual players, LeBron produced 17.4 wins in the regular season while his teammates produced 33.9. Tim Duncan, though, produced 20.1 wins in the regular season while his teammates produced 43.4. In other words, the star on the Spurs is more productive than the star on the Cavs. Plus, the star on the Spurs plays with better teammates than the star on the Cavs. Given all that, it's hard to see the Cavs winning.
Although LeBron's scoring in Game 5 was impressive, it pales in comparison to what Tim Duncan did in Game 3 against the Phoenix Suns. In that game Duncan scored 33 points and captured 19 rebounds. Duncan also hit 63 percent of his shots in that game. Plus, this outburst came against the Suns, a team that is better than the Pistons.
People tend to over-emphasize recent events and under-value events in the past. The evaluation of James and Duncan is a good example of this bias. Duncan was better than James in the regular season. In the playoffs they are about even, although Duncan has played much better competition (Denver, Phoenix, Utah are better teams than Washington, New Jersey, Detroit). And yet all we hear is that James is going to take over the Finals. He might, but it seems more likely that Duncan is going to lead his team to a fourth title.
2) LeBron James has the mental edge over Duncan after having posterized him.
3) I'd rather root for LeBron than Tim.
4) I have no chance to win this thing if I pick the Spurs.
No disagreement on who the favorite is here. Even my Mom thinks Detroit will likely win, but is picking Cleveland as kind of a Hail Mary to try to make up some points on the rest of the field after a brutal 0-fer in second round.
Why does everyone like Detroit? It has a lot to do with the fact that Cleveland is in uncharted territory.
Kevin Pelton, who writes for the SuperSonics' official website, says, "Two series into the playoffs, I'm still not sure how much we've learned about the Cavaliers. The level of difficulty goes way up against the Pistons, who have played very good basketball this postseason." Similarly, ProTrade's Jeffrey Ma hasn't seen enough to trust Cleveland in pressure situations: "Detroit brings out the best in Cleveland, and I see this series being close," he explains, "but the Pistons seem to know how to turn it on in the playoffs and the lack of experience on the Cavaliers scares me if this series goes to seven."
Knickerblogger Mike Kurylo says Detroit gets the nod because Cleveland's offense is unreliable: "The Cavs ranked 19th in offensive efficiency during the regular season, and their inconsistent offense will be their undoing. Take Game 5 against the Nets for example. Up three games to one, they have a chance to close out the game at home and manage only 72 points."
"It's real simple," explains ESPN's John Hollinger. "Unless LBJ goes bananas, the Pistons have too many weapons."
Everyone agrees this will be a tight series, with the home team winning the last game. The only disagreement is about whether that will be Game 6 or Game 7.
But Chicago is, among stat experts, the majority pick. Kevin Pelton says he learned a lot from watching the first round. "To me, the series between the Bulls and Miami was less about the Heat failing than the Bulls putting together four strong games. That showed me something. Chicago won the season series against Detroit 3-1, including two convincing blowouts (the other two games saw each team post a two-point win). Fair or not, I'm not sold on Flip Saunders as a playoff coach."
Jeffrey Ma makes the same pick for different reasons. More than anything, he is betting on Andres Nocioni, Chris Duhon and crew. "The Pistons may boast the East's best starting five," he says, "but the Bulls' bench gives them an edge in this tough second-round series."
David Berri explains that he picked Chicago, but is rooting against his pick: "I should say Chicago in seven games. But my favorite does not have home court. So if they are going to win -- and my strict focus on offensive and defensive efficiency says that they are -- then they have to win in six. I am a Pistons fan so I hope I am wrong. Wouldn't be surprised if I miss with this pick."
This matchup suffers from the realities of the 1-8 seed pairings, in which history, and ones, punish eights mercilessly. Jeffrey Ma writes: "The Pistons are too seasoned and Dwight Howard's offensive game is still too raw. Chauncey Billups will dominate Jameer Nelson on both ends of the floor while Grant Hill and Hedo Turkoglu will find it difficult to keep up with the always-on-the-go Rip Hamilton. Both of these teams are amongst the leagues best in team defense but the Pistons outscored their opponents by 4.2 points per game in the regular season while the Magic scored only 0.8 points more than their opponents on average. This does not bode well for the Magic as they lack a true go-to scorer. Detroit swept the Magic in four regular season games and should dominate here."
Mike Kurylo adds: "The Pistons do one thing better than anyone else in the league: keep the ball. Detroit is first in the NBA in turnovers per possession. Unfortunately for Orlando they are the NBA's worst team in holding onto the ball."
Jeffrey Ma believes LeBron James won't even need his teammates to have a great series: "Since Arenas' injury after just two minutes on April 4th, the Wizards are just 2-7 without Agent Zero and Caron Butler. Those lone wins came against the lowly Pacers and Hawks. The injured duo averaged a combined for 47.5 points per game, which is over 45% of the Wizards 104.3 points per game. It's doubtful that Antawn Jamison, DeShawn Stevenson, Jarvis Hayes, and Antonio Daniels can elevate their games and replace that kind of production. The Cavs have put themselves in a great position to make a deep playoff run."
Kevin Pelton adds that "even before the injuries, Washington was an embarrassingly bad defensive team; Arenas' heroics just helped cover up for it. Without him, I don't think the Cavaliers break a sweat in this series."
Kevin Pelton thinks Toronto might have the antidote for Vince Carter: "Everybody wants to talk about Vince Carter playing the Raptors, but I thought enough of Anthony Parker's ability as a stopper to put him on my (mythical) All-Defense First Team and Parker is a great match for Carter physically, so I think Carter might be neutralized. Take away the Carter hype and Toronto is simply the better team." Justin Kubatko sees this is an incredibly close series: "Toronto and New Jersey are very closely matched; the home court advantage makes Toronto the likely winner." John Hollinger points out that the Nets might not be as hot as they appear: "The Nets strong close (10-3) doesn't look as good under the microscope -- two close calls against defanged Wizards, losses by 18 and 31, and only one win against a winning team. Raptors aren't at full strength up front since Bargnani's still recuperating and Garbajosa literally turned an ankle, but they can play small against Jersey and get away with it."
This time Jeffrey Ma is the contrarian, expecting New Jersey's experience to carry the day: "Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, and Vince Carter will prove to be too much for Chris Bosh and the Colangelo-constructed Raptors. Vince Carter is one of a handful of players in the league that can single handedly carry his team to victory and he will be all business against his former employers. Also, no one defensively will be able to keep Jason Kidd from distributing the ball and running the offense. These teams are very well matched as they split the regular season series 2-2. They also rank quite similarly in points per game (Tor-11th, NJ-15th) and points allowed per game (Tor-16th, NJ-13th). The scoring ability of Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter bodes well for the Nets while it is unknown how Bargnani and Bosh will react to their first trip to the postseason."
Statistics are, of course, based on past performance. Miami's performance this season, however, is bizarre, because they have had so many key injuries this year. That makes this one of the toughest series to predict. Consider Justin Kubatko's dilemma: "I originally had Chicago beating Miami in 5, but Miami's team rating is all messed up because of the status of Dwyane Wade. I gave Miami's rating a slight bump to account for the Wade factor, but in the end I see Chicago as the stronger team. If I was going by my gut I would pick Miami, but I'm not."
Mike Kurylo used similar reasoning to pick the opposite team: "Everything statistically points to Chicago over Miami. The Bulls have a fantastic point differential, and Miami is one Dwayne Wade crash to the floor from dipping their toes in the sand. But the Bulls point differential is misleading (in my opinion) due to an inordinate amount of blow out victories. And Miami's injury filled regular season may not be a true example of their strength."
John Hollinger isn't believing the Miami hype. "Miami's reputation is such that several folks are picking them to prevail," he writes "not only in this series but in the East as a whole. But it's been 10 months since they've looked like a championship-caliber squad and half the team is injured. Throw in a strong opening-round adversary and the champs may be out of this quickly."
Kevin Pelton sees it coming down the wire, but ultimately favoring Chicago: "I was prepared to take the Bulls all the way had they won at New Jersey the other night and got the number two seed, but, as BlogABull broke down, there were troubling signs in the way Scott Skiles coached that game. Still, Kirk Hinrich and Ben Wallace match up as well as anyone, or better, with Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal. If this does go seven, it will be a treat."
Everyone's favorite statistic is that Golden State has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams. But our experts seem to think that hardly matters.
Kevin Pelton says "the harsh reality of the playoffs has a tendency to expose weaknesses and head-to-head success doesn't usually carry over."
John Hollinger says the "Warriors looked good enough down the stretch ... but Dallas is too good for Golden State to beat them when it counts, especially since Golden State has no answer for Dirk."
Jeffrey Ma points out that "the Warriors' free-throw shooting is a concern as they rank just 26th in the NBA in FT% (the Mavs are second in the NBA). Missing freebies will hurt the Warriors."
Mike Kurylo is expecting a Dallas sweep: "The Warriors have 2 main strengths: forcing turnovers and good shooting. Unfortunately for them, those strengths don't match up well against the Mavericks. Dallas is good at keeping the ball and holding their opponents to a low field goal percentage. Nellie's poor rebounding team will be their undoing, as the Mavs are the most well rounded rebounding playoff team in the West."
All the headlines will be about Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant, but Jeffrey Ma says that's only part of the story. "The Suns have too much talent inside as Amare Stoudemire should have little difficulty with the Lakers' bigs, Kwame Brown and Andrew Bynum. The Suns are NBA's most dangerous team from beyond the arc (40% on 24 attempts per game) so they will make the Lakers pay when they are inevitably forced to double team Stoudemire and Shawn Marion."
John Hollinger sees Phoenix scoring plenty: "Lakers defense collapsed down the stretch. Now they're going to stop Phoenix? I don't think so."
Practically every expert echoed this sentiment from Kevin Pelton: "I can see Kobe Bryant stealing a couple of games in this series with big performances, but this Lakers team is simply too flawed to compete with the Suns like they did a year ago, when they took the series to seven games. Jack McCallum's book 'Seven Seconds or Less' revealed that last year both teams felt the Lakers couldn't win with Kobe taking over; now, that seems like the only way they can win a game."
John Hollinger encourages the Nuggets to think about next year: "Denver really looked like it got its act together down the stretch, which bodes well for next year but probably means little for '07 since they're running into the San Antonio buzzsaw."
Jeffery Ma thinks it'll be fun to watch, at least. "This first round match-up could be the West's most interesting as these two teams have completely different playing styles. The Spurs are adept at controlling the tempo of games and should be able to slow down the Nuggets.
"Their tough defense (lowest points allowed per game during the regular season), balanced half-court offense will be a nightmare for the Nuggets who love to run and hate to play defense (26th in the NBA). With Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, Denver should be able to steal a win at home but that's probably all they'll get."
Ahh, now here's a series where all statistical experts do not agree entirely.
Most are going for Houston. John Hollinger picked the Rockets to win in six, but he's banking on health. "Key player here is T-Mac," he writes. "If he stays upright, the Rockets roll. If his back problems flare up, then Utah has the upper hand. By the way, McGrady's career playoff numbers are insanely good, so keep an eye out for an explosion from him -- especially since defending the wing has long been Utah's biggest weakness."
Kubatko is certain Houston will win at home: "I see Houston winning in 5 games as the most likely result, but Houston winning in 7 games is not far behind." Mike Kurylo says the game will be won by Houston's 14th ranked offense having an edge over Utah's 19th ranked defense.
Kevin Pelton, on the other hand, is in the Utah camp: "I like the Rockets and the numbers indicate their style is playoff-tested. However, Utah has played very well against top teams, won the meaningful part of the season series 2-1 (including a win in Houston) and presents a very tough matchup with Yao Ming and Dikembe Mutombo trying to chase Mehmet Okur around the perimeter. Call it a coin flip; I'm going with Utah."
Allow me to assume for a moment that every single person reading this is, on some level, rooting for my mom to win. If you're not, well then I can only assume that you're either a stat expert competing against her, or just plain mean.
So, if you needed one more reason to root for the Phoenix Suns, let this be it: if the Suns can pull this off, they'll give my mom a massive bump as she hangs in against some tough competition.
Jeffrey Ma explains why he thinks my mom will be disappointed: Defense wins championships, and until the Suns or one of their run-n-gun counterparts disproves this theory we are going to stick to it. The Spurs are the NBA's best defensive team (allowing just 90.1 ppg in the regular season) and boast two All-NBA Defensive First Teamers (Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen). The Spurs' brand of basketball may be less than exciting but they will prove difficult to beat. Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion will have a tough task covering for Steve Nash on the defensive end against Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Plus, Robert Horry is sure to break the hearts of countless Suns fans at some point."
Kevin Pelton seconds that emotion: "The Spurs have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 11 of the last 15 matchups including the 2005 Western Conference Finals, and with good reason. Phoenix's game is predicated on scores in the paint and 3-pointers. The Spurs' defense is almost perfectly calibrated to take away these two things. San Antonio can be vulnerable to the midrange game, but few Suns players are comfortable from that range."
There is not much variation in the picks, here, but there is lots of variation in the thinking.
Knickerblogger Mike Kurylo, for instance, made the pick emphatically, before the Nets had even dispatched of the Raptors. "I'm picking this before I even see the winner of the Raps/Nets series," he says. "Neither of these two teams are in the same class as the Cavs."
Wages of Wins author David Berri, on the other hand, agonizes more than a little. "I am taking Cleveland over New Jersey in seven," he explains. "My rule of picking by whoever has the highest efficiency differential forces me to choose Cleveland. But New Jersey with a healthy Richard Jefferson is a much better team. So an upset here is not going to be much of a surprise."
Kevin Pelton, who works on the websites of the Sonics and Storm, also picked Cleveland, but won't be shocked to see a New Jersey win. "I don't feel like I have a terrific handle on either of these teams. Cleveland was pretty clearly coasting in the first round and I'm not sure how much New Jersey's advantage in experience played into the series win over Toronto. I think Cleveland's advantage in the paint will ultimately be too much to overcome for the Nets, but I have no idea how long that will take to play out."
Justin Kubatko made a resolution before the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown began in which he vowed not to let his gut interfere with his analysis. His gut, he told me, had too often let him down. Even though he had the right to use it, he would not.
He almost made one tiny concession, though. He monkeyed with his analysis of the Miami Heat, just a little, to account for their injuries. The slight tinker nudged Miami ahead of Chicago in his analysis. But at the last minute, he decided to go strictly with his analysis, and it ended up being a brilliant move. It would be hard for him to stop trusting the numbers now.
All the same, he doesn't have to be happy about it. "I'm not liking my picks in the semis so far, but I'm sticking to my original plan," he says. "I'm going with strictly math-based picks. I'll take the Jazz in five."
Kevin Pelton, meanwhile, was the only expert to pick Utah in the last series. That's sort of his team. He's going with them again: "Golden State is obviously playing sensational basketball and it's hard to imagine anyone winning at Oracle Arena right now unless the Dream Team in its prime visits via a time capsule. But the Jazz have the inside strength to make the Warriors pay for smallball and enough quickness on the perimeter to keep up. Don't fail me now, Utah!"
Mike Kurylo picked it for the Warriors, but barely: "Any statistician worth their salt would say that the real money is on the larger data collection (82 games of the regular season) than the smaller one (last 20 or so games of Golden State), I like the Warriors here. Why am I jumping on the bandwagon? Mainly it's due to the surprise factor. Low-seeded teams like the '99 Knicks or the '95 Rockets were able to go far in the playoffs due to key additions that changed their make-up (the emergence of Marcus Camby and the addition of Clyde Drexler). Whether it's a scouting issue or a familiarity issue, I'm not certain. But I think that Utah isn't strong enough to make this series certain for the favorite."
Utah has a lot of the things people like to see in the playoffs: a front line that's physical, draws fouls, and grabs rebounds. They have guards who can be great at times. And they are battle-tested after two intense series to make it this far.
"I have to say," writes Knickerblogger Mike Kurylo, "I've been impressed with Utah thus far. They knocked off a tough Houston team in Game 7 on the road, then got into the heads of the red-hot Warriors (and watched Golden State destroy itself). They combined a bit of luck with a lot of skill, and have showed good composure all the way through."
Jeffrey Ma of ProTrade has put his finger on two key points: San Antonio's short turnaround before Game 1, and Carlos Boozer's potential to get Tim Duncan in foul trouble: "Spurs may slip up in Game 1," he says, "but they will be able to win in Utah and are just too efficient on offense for the Jazz. The Jazz can make this a close series if Boozer can get Duncan in foul trouble."
ESPN's John Hollinger says Utah's bruising front line might be a handful. "San Antonio doesn't like overtly physical opponents (witness Seattle in 2005) and teams are getting away with a lot more banging this year, which is why this series will stay close for a while," he says.
"I expect a really good, hard-fought series," says Kevin Pelton, who works for the official site of the Seattle SuperSonics. "The Jazz had a lot of success against the league's top teams this season, including splitting with the Spurs (all four games were won by the home team). Ultimately, though, the Spurs are too much better than the two teams Utah has beat to get this far."
David Berri is Associate Professor of Economics at California State University-Bakersfield and lead author of "The Wages of Wins."
Justin Kubatko runs the popular web site Basketball-Reference.com. He is currently a lecturer in the Department of Statistics at The Ohio State University.
Jeff Ma co-founded PROTRADE in 2004. He was the protagonist, under the name Kevin Lewis, in the bestseller "Bringing Down the House," the story of the MIT blackjack team.
Kevin Pelton is the interactive marketing coordinator for the Seattle SuperSonics and a writer for the team's site. He runs the APBRMetrics Forum for basketball analysis.
Mike Kurylo is a writer and founder of KnickerBlogger.Net. In 2006 he developed OTTER, a unique non-biased team ranking system.
Abbott's mom: Henry's mom hasn't watched all that much NBA since "JeRomeo" Kersey retired.