On the eve of counting day, one exit poll after another showed the UPA edging ahead of the NDA. The BJP was quick to rubbish the findings, saying that exit polls were notoriously unreliable and would be proved wrong on May 16. The exit polls were indeed proved incorrect. But unfortunately for the BJP, they had in fact severely underestimated the strength of the UPA.
At the time of writing, we still have mostly leads and indicators, and few final results. But it seems fairly clear that the UPA is coming back for another term. What’s even better news for it is that the Left has been reduced to virtual irrelevance. After being decimated in Kerala, and suffering a severe setback in its bastion, West Bengal, the Left – purveyor of an obsolete ideology – now has little leverage left at the Centre.
The biggest loser, though, is possibly L K Advani, who now appears doomed to be the Ivan Lendl of Indian politics – frequently a contender for the holy grail, but never getting it. It’s hard to see him leading the BJP in another Lok Sabha election. His moment has passed. Now, expect BJP’s Gen Next to start asserting itself. There were mutterings even during this election about anointing Narendra Modi as the BJP leader. Such talk is now bound to intensify.
The BJP can derive some consolation from the fact that it performed reasonably well in the states where it boasts of providing good governance: Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. But there are still large parts of the country where it is completely unacceptable to the voter. It can only achieve its ambition of once again holding sway in Delhi if it manages to stage a dramatic revival in Uttar Pradesh. But that seems an increasingly difficult prospect, especially now that the Congress has put up a stunning show in that crucial state.
The BSP has fared much worse than it expected to in UP, which effectively checks Mayawati’s prime ministerial aspirations for now (even as sighs of relief resound in millions of middle-class drawing rooms). In the neighbouring state of Bihar, Nitish Kumar has been richly rewarded for energising the hitherto dysfunctional state machinery. It seems that the Hindi heartland is finally looking beyond identity politics and casteist rhetoric, and yearning for the benefits of good governance. If that’s true, then it’s undoubtedly good news for India as a whole.
Incidentally, Rahul Gandhi had a big role to play in the Congress’s gamble of going it alone in UP (remember, his own constituency is in that state). Now that it has paid off, his political stature will rise by leaps and bounds. Also, he was without doubt the star campaigner for the Congress, clocking the most miles and addressing most rallies. True, the Congress has benefited from the efforts of several other leaders and chief ministers. Andhra Pradesh was crucial for the Congress, and YSR has held his own. In Delhi, Sheila Dikshit is going from strength to strength. But neither of them is a contender for leadership of the Congress at the national level.
Critics may fume about dynastic politics, but the fact is, the Congress heaps almost slavish loyalty on the Nehru-Gandhis because it expects the family to fetch it votes. This time round, Rahul has certainly kept his side of the bargain. And the person who worked the hardest for the Congress in UP was probably Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, which is only going to further strengthen the family’s grip on India’s Grand Old Party.
In retrospect, the Congress took two huge gambles – breaking with the Left, and going it alone in UP. If either, or both, had failed, it could have cost the Congress the government. Instead, they succeeded spectacularly, perhaps beyond even the most optimistic expectations of the Congress itself. It is coming back even stronger then before, minus the baggage of the Left, with potentially troublesome allies like Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan now humbled and in no position to throw their weight around.
The UPA has a shot at another five-year term, and Manmohan Singh is not getting any younger. Sooner or later, expect a passing of the torch to Rahul and his trusted team. In a previous post The real final: Rahul vs Modi, I’d predicted that one day, a Rahul-led Congress would battle a Modi-led BJP for the heart, mind and soul of India. Today, I believe that prediction is more likely to come true than ever before. But for now, the star that’s shining brightest on the Indian political firmament is undoubtedly Rahul Gandhi.
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Vikas Singh is Resident Editor of The Times of India, Delhi. A self-confessed dilettante, he reads passionately on almost every topic under the sun, but confesses to a special weaknesss for cricket, economics and the economics of cricket -- a range of interests he hopes to replicate in his blog, Rue-Barb Pie.
Vikas Singh is Resident Editor of The Times of India, Delhi. A self-confessed dilettante, he reads passionately on almost every topic under the sun, but con. . .