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John, thanks for your posts, as always.
I wrote something to a friend as kind of a joke, and I titled it ‘The Investor’s Paradox’.
1. You bought a stock and it went up. Why didn’t you buy more of that when it was cheap, you dummy?
2. You bought a stock and it went down. What did you buy that junk for, you dummy?
3. You watched a good stock go up forever, and you never bought any, you dummy!
4. You bought a good stock, it went up and then you sold it. It kept going up after you sold it. Why did you sell it so soon, you dummy?
The joke is that investing is about making a long series of mistakes. No matter what you do, you could have always done something better in hindsight. I think the ultimate measure still has to be how you did compared to the overall market (again, your call if that’s the S&P or the world market). If your series of mistakes leads to outperforming the market consistently, then you’re doing OK. That’s how I look at it anyway.
To that end, I netted almost exactly your performance last year, but I did it completely differently. There are many different roads to the same goal.