For lack of a better alternative the phrase “Vegas Says” has become the default terminology for describing a betting line. Las Vegas sportsbooks source their odds from offshore betting markets which are a far better indicator of the strength of the betting line because they are not restricted by the wagering limits which most Las Vegas sportsbooks employ.
So why should you look to Las Vegas when using odds for fantasy football? The DFS Doctors believe that you should not, that you should go straight to the source and use the same information that the Las Vegas bookmakers use to set their lines when building your lineups.
Many people believe the betting line to be the Vegas prediction of the final score, in reality it is nothing of the sort. The betting line is simply a number that attempts to split the opinion of the betting public. In an ideal world for a bookmaker, the number posted on a game would receive an equal amount of money on both sides. This rarely happens with a bookmakers opening number, but generally occurs once the market becomes liquid. What this means is that there is enough money being bet the the line stabilizes to the point where the bookmaker can adjust the juice to earn his profits.
These stable lines occur on offshore betting markets, where the limits are so high that the sharpest gamblers can get their money down without fear of being limited by the book taking the action. In doing so they control the market and therefore we must look to the spots where they bet to gleam information about the odds which can be useful to you when setting your daily fantasy lineup.
You won’t find these sportsbooks being spoken about on ESPN, or quoted by most other DFS experts. The reason is simple, these shops don’t pay for marketing. They rely on word of mouth within the gambling community, and have built legendary reputations as the spots where sharp players can thrive.
The books which you should reference when doing your research vary depending on the sport you wish to play. When researching sports that are popular within the European betting community, Soccer and Golf, the DFS Doctors reference not a sportsbook but a betting exchange known as BetFair. For North American sports we recommend using Pinnacle Sports or Bookmaker for DFS.
All three of the aforementioned books are known for taking the largest wagers. You can use their lines with confidence knowing that the betting market speaks through these operations.